Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was strong, rising and then falling, and pulling up again at the end of the session, mainly affected by macro - level sentiment. The inventory of nickel ore arriving in ports from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore, and there was limited driving force for short - term price increases at the ore end. The transaction price of ferronickel decreased again during the day, but the latest transactions of iron plants in August showed a certain upward shift. With the stabilization of ferronickel, it would support the subsequent downstream prices. Stainless steel was also affected by the market and showed a strong trend. Large manufacturers still had the sentiment of reducing production, and spot prices generally followed the increase, but the policy had limited actual impact on stainless steel, and the spot - end transactions did not improve significantly with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3]. - There were positive factors such as the continuation of the cobalt mine ban in Congo, Indonesia's APNI's plan to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt, shortening the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, potential impact of Indonesia - US tariff negotiations on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming release of the growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Negative factors included stainless steel entering the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction [4]. - The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepened, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The inventory of pure nickel was high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore increased, weakening the bottom support [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai Nickel was 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - For inventory management, when the product sales price declined and there was a risk of inventory value reduction, one could short Shanghai Nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2; or buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3. For procurement management, when the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it could sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1; or buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2]. Market Data Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest values of Shanghai Nickel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 123,530, 123,720, 123,810, and 124,050 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.83%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M was at 15,510 US dollars/ton, up 0.85%. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, down 19.11%, the open interest was 35,618 lots, down 14.21%, the number of warehouse receipts was 22,093 tons, down 0.08%, and the basis of the main contract was - 1,250 yuan/ton, up 197.6% [5]. - For stainless steel, the latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 12,930, 12,930, 12,960, and 13,005 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0%, 0.19%, 0.15%, and 0.19%. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, down 24.69%, the open interest was 124,058 lots, up 1.17%, the number of warehouse receipts was 103,475 tons, down 0.12%, and the basis of the main contract was 240 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [6]. Inventory Data - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 tons, an increase of 216 tons; the stainless steel social inventory was 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons; and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [7].

沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 | 远月沪镍合约 | 买入 | 依据采购 计划 | 3 | | | | 提前采购锁定生产成本 | | | 计划 | | | | | 卖出看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 卖出 | 依据采购 | 1 | | 管理 | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1] - There are no new contradictions in the news and fundamentals of nickel, and it is digesting recent sentiment. The nickel ore benchmark price in July was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support. The transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, affected by weak downstream demand. For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels and sell call options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60% for futures and 50% for options [2] - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan and sell put options, and also buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel is oscillating strongly. There are no new contradictions in news and fundamentals, mainly digesting recent sentiment [3] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support [3] - The intraday transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, mainly affected by weak downstream demand [3] - For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts [3] - The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] 3.利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The ban on cobalt mines in Congo continues [4] - Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons [4] - Policies have a positive impact on the overall new energy chain [4] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [4] 4.利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [5] - The contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain have deepened, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [5] - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered [6] 5. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 570 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume increased by 14.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.73% [6] - For stainless steel, the latest price of the main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume decreased by 20.00%, and the open interest decreased by 0.10% [7] 6. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period [8] - The LME nickel inventory is 203,628 tons, a decrease of 474 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 992.1 tons, a decrease of 8.5 tons [8] - The inventory of nickel pig iron is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [8]