近日看了一个报道，从2020年开始，5 年内，全球近50个海外经济体以本币计价几乎全部录得名义房价 上涨，平均累计涨幅在 30% 以上。 而近一年，全球主要发达经济体，平均房价增速在 5% 以上，主要原因就是全球通胀，被动推高了房 价。 在这其中，涨势排名第一的是日本，一年内房价暴涨了 20%，就连租金都飙升了 8% 以上。我看了一 眼，东京核心区新房均价高达 1.5 亿日元，折合人民币接近 700 万元，新房平均面积是 65 平方，算下 来，达到 9-10 万/平米。东京核心区如港区，2025 年新建公寓每平米大概在 20 万每平米左右。 即使是郊区，房价最便宜也在 4.2-7.1 万/平米左右。日本房价涨的是真的夸张。 那么为什么会出现一年内暴涨的趋势？总共分为三大原因。 第一个是日元贬值严重，而东京租金回报率又在 5% 左右，那么日本房产就具有了天然稳定的避险属 性，相当于 5% 左右的理财。这吸引了亚太地区甚至全球资本前来避险。 全球 1% 的富人手握重金成为东京核心资产的主要竞标者，对房屋进行重新定价，也让日本房子跟本土 工薪阶层彻底脱钩。 第二个原因是极其夸张的低利率环境。 日本靠国债和低利率，把 ...

Economic Overview - Japan is experiencing a significant rise in prices, leading to increased public concern about the cost of living [2][5] - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates if economic activity and inflation trends align with expectations, with core CPI forecasts for fiscal years 2025-2027 remaining stable at 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0% respectively [2][3] Inflation Impact - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan has risen for 48 consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of over 3% for seven months from January to July this year [2][6] - The rising cost of living, including essential goods and housing, is putting significant pressure on Japanese households, with average rent as a percentage of income increasing by 1% to 5% [3][10] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate prices in major cities like Tokyo and Osaka have surged, with new residential prices in Tokyo's 23 wards averaging 133.09 million yen (approximately 6.25 million RMB), a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [10][12] - Foreign investment in Japan's real estate market is on the rise, accounting for 34% of total investment, with a total investment amount exceeding 1 trillion yen [12][15] Consumer Behavior - The rising prices are leading to a decrease in purchasing power, with real wages in Japan declining for eight consecutive months, indicating that nominal wage increases are not keeping pace with inflation [7][8] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior towards saving and reducing discretionary spending due to the ongoing inflation [8][11] Long-term Concerns - The Japanese real estate market is facing potential overheating risks, with concerns about speculative trading not based on actual demand [17] - Long-term demographic trends, such as population decline and low interest in homeownership among younger generations, may constrain future real estate demand [17]

日本持续上涨的物价正引发民众更多忧虑。 "如果物价再这样上涨，家庭负担无疑就更重了。"住在日本大阪的李女士感叹道。她向记者 表示，近几个月，自己在超市买类似的食物和日用品时，明显感觉到每次结账价格都在提 升。从数据来看，日本似乎走进了"通胀时代"。据新华社报道，10月末，日本央行行长植田 和男在货币政策会议后表示，如果经济活动和物价走势与预期一致，将考虑提高利率。同一 天，日本央行还更新了通胀预测，预计2025~2027财年核心CPI分别为2.7%、1.8%和2.0%， 与上次预期持平。 日本物价正持续上涨。 根据总务省公布的数据， 截至今年8月，日本核心消费价格指数 （CPI）连续48个月同比上升。 今年1月至7月，核心CPI涨幅连续7个月保持在3%以上。 "令 人担忧的是通胀可能固化，如果民众形成长期通胀的预期，商品流通价格可能全面上涨。"复 旦发展研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示。 就在日本央行对加息犹豫不决时，日本通胀的压力正向着更广泛的经济领域渗透。数据显 示，在截至2024年的约四年里，整体平均房租占收入比例上升了1％至5％，达到18%至 34%。在东京23区，其比 ...

Economic Overview - Japan is experiencing a prolonged inflation period, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for 48 consecutive months, and the CPI growth rate remaining above 3% for seven months from January to July this year [1][4] - The Bank of Japan has updated its inflation forecast, expecting core CPI to be 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0% for the fiscal years 2025-2027, maintaining previous expectations [1] Consumer Impact - Rising prices are significantly affecting the purchasing power of Japanese citizens, with real wages declining for eight consecutive months due to inflation outpacing wage growth [5][6] - The average price of essential goods, including rice, has surged, with the price of 5 kg of rice reaching 4,205 yen (approximately 196 RMB), remaining above 4,000 yen for five consecutive weeks [3][4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Japan is experiencing rapid price increases, with average new home prices in Tokyo's 23 wards reaching 133.09 million yen (approximately 6.25 million RMB), a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [6][7] - Foreign investment is driving demand in the real estate sector, with 20% to 40% of new apartments in central Tokyo purchased by foreigners [7][9] Government Response - The Japanese government is cautious about raising interest rates, opting instead for a "time for space" approach, focusing on observing wage growth and enhancing productivity through digital transformation [5] - There are discussions about tightening regulations on foreign investments in real estate to prevent excessive foreign ownership of land [2][10] Long-term Concerns - The ongoing inflation and rising property prices may lead to a potential real estate bubble, with warnings from experts about the risks of speculative trading in the market [10][11] - Japan's demographic challenges, including a declining population and low interest in homeownership among younger generations, may limit long-term demand for real estate [11]