证券研究报告 受推盘节奏影响，FY1H26 公司香港权益销售金额同比-30%至 174 亿港币， 但紧随业绩期后，SIERRA SEA 二期热销贡献了 90 亿港币销售。随着元朗、 古洞、荃湾、启德等重点项目开启推售，我们预计 FY26 公司权益销售金额 有望达到 350 亿港币，继续领跑港资房企。此外，公司在压降净负债率后 抓住香港市场复苏的契机，通过招拍挂、地契修订、换地的多元方式，在屯 门、古洞、长沙湾新增约 187 万平方呎楼面面积，积极补充可售弹药。 新鸿基地产 (16 HK) 港股通 业绩增速亮眼，租金彰显韧性 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 27 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(港币): | 164.37 | 公司发布 FY26 上半财年业绩，FY1H26 实现营收 527 亿港币，同比+32%； 核心归母净利润 122 亿港币，同比+17%，而彭博一致预期 FY26 全年增速 为 5%；中期 DPS 为 0.98 港币，同比+3%。在 ...

证券研究报告 新鸿基地产 (16 HK) 港股通 业绩增速亮眼，租金彰显韧性 | 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 27 日│中国香港 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(港币): | 164.37 | 公司发布 FY26 上半财年业绩，FY1H26 实现营收 527 亿港币，同比+32%； 核心归母净利润 122 亿港币，同比+17%，而彭博一致预期 FY26 全年增速 为 5%；中期 DPS 为 0.98 港币，同比+3%。在内地开发结转放量等因素的 推动下，公司核心净利润同比增速亮眼，同时租金表现具备韧性，压降负债 后开始积极拓展香港土储。我们预计公司将持续受益于香港房地产市场复 苏，并在投资物业和租金规模上具备成长性。维持"买入"评级。 业绩增速亮眼，主因内地开发结转放量+投资物业出售+利息节省 FY1H26 公司核心净利润同比增速亮眼，主要因为：1、内地物业开发分部 利润同比+27 亿港币，主要来自杭州和苏州高利润项目的结转放量；2、出 售香港投资物业（帝景园、S ...

展望未来，公司预期市场环境仍将充满挑战，但会逐步改善。中国内地的政策支持预计将持续，公司谨 慎乐观地认为，未来几季稳定措施将取得成效。在香港，房价可负担性的提高、政府的支持性政策以及 经济活动的復甦，应会为住宅销售创造更有利的环境。澳门和吉隆坡则提供了多元化投资机会，并能接 触到需求驱动因素各异的市场。 卓能(集团)(00131)发布截至2025年12月31日止6个月中期业绩，该公司取得收入2.72亿港元，同比增加 250.64%;公司持有人应占期内溢利1.8亿港元，同比扭亏为盈;每股基本盈利0.28港元;中期股息每股3.00 港仙。 ...

马年春节复工首周，一线城市率先发力，打响新年楼市复苏的"第一枪"。2月25日，广州天河马场地块 的出让，吸引了保利发展、越秀地产、华润置地等8家房企竞拍，最终经过近9小时、243轮激烈竞价， 由越秀地产以236亿元竞得，创下广州楼面地价新高。广州地块出让同日，上海出台楼市新政，围绕住 房限购、公积金使用、多子女家庭支持、房产税优惠等多个方面推出优化措施。业内人士分析称，一线 城市此次率先发力，有效修复了市场预期，为全国房地产市场复苏注入信心。作为人口流入高地与产业 核心载体，一线城市的楼市企稳，能够带动二线城市跟进回暖，形成自上而下的复苏梯队。 越秀236亿元夺地抢攻广州一哥 广州天河马场地块的出让，吸引了保利发展、越秀地产、华润置地等8家房企竞拍，最终经过近9小时、 243轮激烈竞价，由越秀地产以236亿元竞得，创下广州楼面地价新高。 比达64%，均较2025年12月有所上升，市场主力需求正加速向小户型、低总价倾斜。这一趋势导致"卖 旧买新"的置换链条传导不畅，对新房销售形成直接冲击。 新政的靶向正是疏通这一堵点。中指研究院上海数据总经理张文静分析，本次政策更加聚焦外环内，直 接扩大外环内的住房需求群体规模 ...

马年春节复工首周，一线城市率先发力，打响新年楼市复苏的第一"枪"。2月25日，广州天河马场地块 的出让，吸引了保利发展、越秀地产、华润置地等8家房企竞拍，最终经过近9小时、243轮激烈竞价， 由越秀地产以236亿元竞得，创下广州楼面地价新高。广州地块出让同日，上海出台楼市新政，围绕住 房限购、公积金使用、多子女家庭支持、房产税优惠等多个方面推出优化措施。业内人士分析称，一线 城市此次率先发力，有效修复了市场预期，为全国房地产市场复苏注入信心。作为人口流入高地与产业 核心载体，一线城市的楼市企稳，能够带动强二线城市跟进回暖，形成自上而下的复苏梯队。 越秀236亿元夺地抢攻广州"一哥" 广州天河马场地块的出让，吸引了保利发展、越秀地产、华润置地等8家房企竞拍，最终经过近9小时、 243轮激烈竞价，由越秀地产以236亿元竞得，创下广州楼面地价新高。 天河马场地块成功出让的同日，上海市发布楼市新政，打响马年楼市调控"第一枪"。新政通过降低购房 门槛、增加购房套数、提高公积金贷款额度、完善房产税政策等七条具体措施，进一步满足居民刚性和 改善性住房需求。 据中原地产统计，2026年1月上海新房成交规模同环比降幅均在30% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Hong Kong government did not announce any significant stimulus measures for the residential market, which has already bottomed out since mid-2025, but the overall tone is more positive due to active capital market activities and economic recovery [1] - The fiscal surplus for the fiscal year 2025/26 has been revised to a surplus of HKD 2.9 billion, with expectations for further improvement in the fiscal situation for 2026/27, predicting a revenue growth of 11% year-on-year, exceeding the expenditure growth of 7%, leading to a larger surplus of HKD 22 billion, equivalent to 0.7% of local GDP [1] - The budget assumes stable land revenue of HKD 18 billion, with the government intending to continue quarterly land sales to ensure stable supply in the coming years, and Goldman Sachs does not expect a sharp increase in land prices, viewing new property development projects as more economically viable and attractive for developers [1] Group 2 - The government plans to collaborate with mainland China to accelerate the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) into the mutual market, which may enhance market sentiment and the profitability of developers in the future [2] - Despite the lack of major stimulus measures for the residential market, a better economic outlook, supportive talent visa policies, and relatively low land sale prices are expected to benefit market sentiment and the recovery of developers' profitability [2] - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong residential market, recommending "buy" ratings for New World Development (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Sino Land Company (00083) [2]

Group 1 - The first week of the Year of the Horse sees a recovery in the real estate market, with first-tier cities leading the way, exemplified by the competitive bidding for the Tianhe racetrack land in Guangzhou, which was won by Yuexiu Property for 23.6 billion yuan, setting a new record for land prices in Guangzhou [1][2] - The successful land auction in Guangzhou is accompanied by new housing policies in Shanghai aimed at optimizing housing purchase conditions, which include lowering purchase thresholds and increasing housing loan limits, thereby enhancing market confidence [1][4] - The competitive bidding for the Tianhe land reflects a trend of major developers focusing on high-quality land, which is expected to boost industry expectations and support Yuexiu Property's ambition to become the leading developer in Guangzhou [2][3] Group 2 - The new policies in Shanghai are designed to address the challenges in the housing market, particularly the difficulties in the "sell old to buy new" process, which has been affecting new home sales [4][5] - Recent data indicates that non-local buyers account for approximately 40%-45% of property purchases in Shanghai, highlighting the importance of this demographic in stimulating the housing market [5] - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with various policies being implemented at both central and local levels to support this trend, including tax reductions and easing of purchase restrictions for non-local residents [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" has significantly boosted the stock prices of real estate companies in both Hong Kong and A-shares, indicating a positive market reaction to the new policies aimed at easing property purchase restrictions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 25, real estate stocks in Hong Kong saw substantial gains, with notable increases such as 7.41% for Heung Kong Holdings and 6.45% for Country Garden [1]. - A-shares also performed well, with the real estate sector rising by 2.11%, highlighted by a 9.96% increase for Chengdu Investment Holdings [1]. - The market's early response to the "Shanghai Seven Measures" was influenced by prior speculation and a recovery in the second-hand housing market in January [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" are seen as a significant step in promoting demand and consumption in the real estate sector, aligning with broader economic goals for 2026 [2]. - The recent land auction in Guangzhou set a new record for land prices, indicating strong competition among major developers and reflecting positive sentiment in the real estate market [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The emergence of a new land price record in Guangzhou is expected to positively influence market expectations and stimulate demand for luxury properties [3]. - Recent data shows a slight recovery in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a notable increase in online property searches during the Spring Festival [4]. - The overall housing price decline has slowed, with January data indicating a 0.5% decrease, the smallest since August 2025, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [4].

RatingsDirect® 中国房地产观察：供给过剩压制复苏 2026 年 2 月 9 日 版权 © 2026 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC。版权所有。 本报告不构成评级行动。 今年中国开发商将继续迎接挑战 *指 2025 年年末待售面积相比 2021 年中国楼市进入下行期之前 10 年平均值的增幅。资料来源：国家统计局，标普全球评级。 库存六年连增 新建商品房待售面积（百万平方米） 商品房待售面积 相比行业下行前 平均值的增幅* 我们预测的 2026 年全国新建商品 房销售额降幅 我们预测的 2026 年二手住宅价格 降幅 连续6年年末待售面积同比增加 下行之前10年期间（2011-2020年） 平均值 要点速览 商品房库存积压，意味着中国房地产市场面临着崎岖的复苏之路。2025 年商品房待售面积已连续第 六年增加。供给过剩可能导致价格承压，而价格下跌又会损害购房者信心，形成了一个难以打破的恶 性循环。 主要联系人 陈令华，CFA，FRM 香港 852-2533-3539 edward.chan @spglobal.com 亚太区经济学家 高路易 香港 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $71.1 million, with Adjusted EBITDA at $22.4 million and an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 31.5% [23] - Adjusted Diluted EPS was reported at $0.30, while revenue excluding the marketing fund decreased by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [23][24] - The total leverage ratio decreased to 3.12x as of December 31, remaining below the 3.5x level, which provides greater flexibility for capital allocation [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Aspire program has seen adoption by over 2,000 agents, contributing to reduced churn and improved productivity among participants [12][29] - Selling, operating, and administrative expenses increased by $1.6 million, or 4.4%, primarily due to losses on asset sales and increased event-related expenses [24] - The new franchise royalty fee model in the Motto network aims to align economic structures with market realities, providing more flexibility for franchisees [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall worldwide agent count reached an all-time high of over 148,500 agents, with significant growth outside the U.S. and Canada, now exceeding 75,000 agents [8][9] - The housing market is showing signs of normalization, with increased inventory and new listings compared to the previous year, indicating a more balanced market [7] - A consumer survey indicated that 88% of prospective buyers are likely to purchase a home in 2026, despite economic uncertainties [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company views 2026 as a year of tremendous opportunity, focusing on enhancing brand value and expanding its network [4][5] - Strategic investments in technology and marketing are aimed at improving agent productivity and consumer engagement [14][15] - The company is exploring new ways to leverage its global sales power and enhance its competitive advantages [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recovery of the housing market and the company's positioning to capitalize on it [6][7] - The focus remains on executing a comprehensive growth strategy, with expectations for agent count to increase by 1.5%-3.5% in 2026 [25][26] - Management highlighted the importance of macroeconomic factors and their potential impact on revenue guidance [42][44] Other Important Information - The company is investing in digital marketing assets and has launched a Marketing-as-a-Service platform that is gaining traction [13][15] - The RE/MAX Media Network is expected to see significant advertising revenue growth this year [15] - The company is committed to maintaining a high-quality franchise system by terminating underperforming franchisees [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the Aspire program's impact on agent productivity - Management noted that the Aspire program has led to reduced churn and improved productivity among agents, contributing to stabilization in U.S. agent count [29][30] Question: Factors influencing the recent addition of agents to RE/MAX - The CEO indicated that a combination of brand modernization, technology offerings, and the global footprint contributed to attracting new agents [31][32] Question: Perspectives on AI-driven automation in the industry - Management emphasized a purposeful approach to AI deployment, focusing on tools that help agents win listings and improve efficiency [38][40] Question: Key factors influencing revenue guidance for 2026 - Management highlighted macroeconomic conditions, U.S. agent count stabilization, and growth in new monetization initiatives as key factors [42][44] Question: Ongoing versus one-time cost pressures in expenses - Management clarified that some costs in Q4 were one-time charges, and the run rate for selling, operating, and administrative expenses is expected to remain consistent moving forward [52]