智通财经APP获悉，在家得宝(HD.US)发布了第二季度业绩后，摩根士丹利发布研报，维持对家得宝 的"增持"评级，目标价415美元。大摩表示，2025 年第二季度业绩维持了家得宝的看涨情景，26/27年的 预测保持不变。 大摩指出，2025 年第二季度的业绩使家得宝股价上涨的乐观预期得以维持：房地产市场已触底，家装 股(家得宝和劳氏(LOW.US))的股价反映出市场预期其将经历一个漫长而渐进的复苏过程。因此，营收 加速增长的迹象应会推动盈利和市盈率上升。家得宝的业绩使这一预期保持不变。同店销售额相对符合 预期，而公司业务管理良好，这为经济周期好转时的运营杠杆上升潜力奠定了基础。 大摩表示，2025年第二季度透露出的最重要信息是：美国同店销售额连续第三个季度实现增长，此前已 连续 8 个季度下滑。该行认为这反映了房地产市场触底、新冠疫情的影响逐渐消退以及家得宝在专业和 DIY 领域所做的内部努力。尽管此次反弹幅度并不惊人，但市场对此已有预期并已反映在股价中。 （原标题：大摩：家得宝(HD.US)二季报支撑股价上涨预期 重申"增持"评级） 重要的是，大摩认为排除飓风影响的同店销售额增长为正(尽管整体数据为略降 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development sector and real estate services sector [10][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales in 44 cities, with a week-on-week increase of 22%, while second-hand home sales saw a slight decline of 5% [2]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in 44 cities are down 6% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales are up 14% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory reduction, noting a 0.4% decrease in new home inventory in 21 key cities [33]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.75%, with the real estate development sector down 3.43% [3]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in the real estate market, with new home sales showing signs of recovery while second-hand sales are declining [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.34 - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.32 - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) with a target price of 12.08 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 17.07 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 12.73 - China Overseas Property (2669 HK) with a target price of 7.74 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 [11][43]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Data - New home sales in July across 44 cities decreased by 19% year-on-year, with first-tier cities down 26% [15]. - The report notes that second-hand home sales in 22 cities decreased by 6% in July, but year-to-date, they are up 14% [24]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of July 27, the inventory of new homes in 21 key cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 14% [33]. - The report indicates that the de-stocking speed in first-tier cities is 54 weeks, while second-tier cities are at 87 weeks [33]. Recommendations and Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of key city markets and the valuation recovery of companies with strong cash flow and performance [4][42]. - The report suggests that property management companies are also likely to see valuation recovery as the real estate market stabilizes [4].

Core Insights - Brookfield Asset Management's real estate division is witnessing a resurgence in large transactions after three years of low activity, with $13 billion in real estate sales this year, significantly higher than previous years [1][2] - The private equity real estate sector has faced challenges in fundraising due to locked-up capital, with 2024 fundraising expected to decline for the third consecutive year, totaling $131.1 billion, less than half of the 2021 peak [2] - The recovery in the real estate market remains uneven, with strong demand in sectors like data centers and rental housing, while traditional commercial real estate, particularly office buildings, faces uncertainty [3][5] Group 1: Market Activity - Brookfield has completed several significant transactions, including the sale of a senior housing company in Australia and a student housing owner in Spain, indicating a recovery in liquidity [1][2] - The first quarter of 2024 saw a 14% increase in U.S. commercial real estate investment compared to the previous year, which was at a ten-year low [2] Group 2: Fundraising and Investment Strategies - Brookfield raised $5.9 billion for its flagship real estate fund in the first quarter, bringing the total to $16 billion, indicating a positive trend in fundraising [3] - The company is focusing on high-quality assets while observing a bifurcation in the office market, with a lack of capital returning to underperforming assets [3][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The uncertainty in future demand is limiting new development projects, although major companies are pushing for a return to the office, leading to a shortage of prime office space and rising rents [4][5] - Brookfield's strategy includes acquiring office property owners in Europe, contrasting with competitors like Blackstone, which have reduced office investments [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that interest rate cuts will drive a recovery in the real estate market [1] Group 1 - Interest rate reductions are expected to stimulate demand in the housing sector, leading to increased home sales and construction activity [1] - The real estate market has been under pressure due to high borrowing costs, and easing rates could alleviate these challenges [1] - A recovery in the real estate market is crucial for overall economic growth, as it impacts various sectors including construction, finance, and consumer spending [1]

Core Insights - The top 100 real estate companies in China achieved a monthly sales turnover of 338.96 billion yuan in June, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [1] - Nearly 60% of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month growth in sales, with 28 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30% [1] - Cumulatively, the top 100 companies recorded a total sales turnover of 1,652.68 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.8%, which is a larger drop compared to the first five months [1] Sales Performance - The number of companies with total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan in the first half of the year decreased to 3, down from 5 in the same period last year [2] - The three companies surpassing the 100 billion yuan mark are Poly Developments, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land, with sales of 145.2 billion yuan, 120.13 billion yuan, and 110.3 billion yuan respectively [2] - There were 45 companies with total sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in the first half of the year, one less than in the same period of 2024 [3] Land Acquisition Trends - In June, significant land transactions occurred in cities like Wuhan and Chengdu, with a notable land price in Hangzhou reaching 55.78 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 54,473 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 21.05% [4] - The land auction market is showing signs of differentiation, similar to the new housing market, with core cities experiencing higher demand for certain plots [4] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue low-level fluctuations in new home transactions, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to a lower base from the previous year, indicating a weak recovery trend [4] - The differentiation between cities and projects is likely to persist, with core first and second-tier cities remaining hot spots, particularly in cities with strong purchasing power [4] - Analysts suggest that promoting sustained market recovery remains a key policy goal for the real estate sector, with policies focusing on urban village renovations, high-quality housing supply, and acquisition of existing properties [5]

Group 1 - New World Development Company Limited has reached a new bank financing and unified bank financing agreement covering approximately HKD 88.2 billion of existing unsecured financial debt [1] - The company's financial management strategy focuses on reducing liabilities and improving cash flow, while continuing to fulfill existing financial responsibilities [1] - The recovery of the real estate market in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with the growth in demand for high-end residential properties, has led to the successful launch of several "phenomenal" hot-selling projects [1] Group 2 - As of June 25, the company has achieved its contract sales target of HKD 26 billion for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [1] - In the mainland market, projects in Guangzhou and Shenyang have led sales, with Shenyang's project topping the residential sales chart in May [1] - In Hong Kong, the super luxury project "滶晨" has sold over 330 units at a maximum price of over HKD 538,000 per square meter, attracting both local and overseas buyers [2]

Group 1 - The land auction in Hangzhou on June 27 saw a total transaction value of 151.15 billion yuan, with three plots sold at a premium of over 50% [1] - A total of six residential plots were auctioned, covering an area of 267 acres, with a starting price of 115.9 billion yuan, and all plots were sold at a premium [1] - The core plot in Qianjiang Century City attracted significant attention, sold for 55.78 billion yuan, achieving a floor price of 54,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for the area [1] Group 2 - The highest premium was recorded for the Shushan unit XS150201-42 plot, sold for 11.03 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 67.6% [2] - The Binhai Group also acquired another plot for 32.65 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,600 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 25.34% [2] - The Future Technology City plot was sold for 33.29 billion yuan, with a floor price of 30,100 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 32.14% [2] Group 3 - In May, new home prices in Hangzhou increased by 0.8% month-on-month and year-on-year, ranking first in the country [3] - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown significant fluctuations, with a peak in March at over 12,000 transactions, but a decline in subsequent months due to external factors [4] - The second-hand market saw a drop to around 9,500 transactions in April and further down to 7,700 in May, with a continued downward trend expected in June [4]

Group 1: Land Market - The land market shows signs of partial recovery, with first-tier and new first-tier cities experiencing increased competition for residential land, as the average premium rate in first-tier cities rose to 7.1% in May, the highest in nearly a year [3] - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle, with a high land auction failure rate of 21.3% in May, indicating a cautious approach from developers who are only targeting the safest core areas [3] - State-owned enterprises dominate the land market, accounting for over 70% of land acquisition amounts, while many private enterprises remain burdened by debt and are unable to expand [3] Group 2: Housing Sales - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction volumes in 14 major cities increasing by nearly 10% month-on-month in May, and price indices slightly rising by 0.1% [4] - The new housing market is experiencing slow growth, with some core cities seeing a month-on-month increase in new housing transaction areas, although year-on-year figures still show a decline [5] - Third and fourth-tier cities face significant pressure, with an average inventory turnover period of 28 months, indicating a lack of market vitality [5] Group 3: Policy Support - Various "market rescue" measures have been implemented, including historic low mortgage rates and reduced down payment ratios [6] - The "old-for-new" model has been introduced in over 50 cities to facilitate housing exchanges [7] - Core cities have significantly relaxed purchase restrictions, which may temporarily boost market confidence and demand, but the sustainability of these effects depends on broader economic improvements [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - The most severe phase of the real estate market's decline may have passed, with some indicators showing signs of stabilization, but a full recovery is not yet evident [9] - The recovery is fragile and heavily reliant on policy support and price adjustments, with a clear structural differentiation in recovery across different regions and asset types [9] - The belief in continuously rising property prices has been shattered, and restoring confidence will require time and solid economic fundamentals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization in May 2025, with a significant drop in new housing supply, while transaction volumes remained stable compared to April, and year-on-year sales showed positive growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 294.58 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, with the decline slightly narrowing compared to April [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, these companies recorded a total sales turnover of 1,312.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1% [1]. - More than half of the top 100 companies saw month-on-month performance improvements in May, with 22 companies experiencing increases greater than 30% [1]. Group 2: Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 100 real estate companies in May 2025 were as follows: 34.98 billion yuan for the top 10, 15.15 billion yuan for the top 20, 9.53 billion yuan for the top 30, 6.14 billion yuan for the top 50, and 2.25 billion yuan for the top 100 [6]. - The sales threshold for the top 30 companies saw the highest year-on-year growth at 5.3%, followed by the top 50 at 3%, while the top 100 saw a minimal increase of 0.2% [6]. Group 3: Tiered Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, only the tier of companies ranked 31-50 among the top 100 saw a year-on-year increase in cumulative sales, achieving a growth of 4.9%, while all other tiers experienced declines, with the top 4-10 tier seeing the largest drop at 13.3% [9]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to June, it is anticipated that the year-end push from real estate companies, combined with improved supply quality, will support a continued steady recovery in transaction volumes, with month-on-month increases expected [12]. - In major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, supply constraints are becoming more pronounced, limiting transaction volumes [12]. - Cities that previously underwent significant adjustments, such as Zhengzhou, Tianjin, and Nanjing, are expected to stabilize, while some weaker second-tier cities face ongoing high inventory challenges [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market shows signs of stabilization in May 2025, with new home supply significantly decreasing, while transaction volumes remained stable compared to April, and year-on-year growth is maintained [8][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [9][10]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales amount reached 1,312.75 billion yuan [10]. - Over half of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month performance improvements in May, with 22 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30% [10]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall real estate market continues to show a weak recovery trend, with expectations for June indicating a steady increase in transaction volumes, while year-on-year comparisons may show slight declines [10][18]. - The supply of new homes is expected to improve, driven by the mid-year push from real estate companies and enhanced supply quality [18]. - The first-tier cities, particularly hotspots like Shanghai and Shenzhen, are experiencing supply constraints, which may limit transaction volumes despite the introduction of suitable properties [18]. Group 3: Sales Scale Variations - The sales threshold for the top 30 real estate companies increased by 5.3% year-on-year to 9.53 billion yuan in May 2025 [13]. - The sales scale among different tiers of the top 100 companies shows divergence, with the 31-50 tier experiencing cumulative sales growth, while the top 10 and 11-20 tiers saw declines [15].