Core Insights - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariffs but is likely to avoid recession [1] - The core CPI inflation rate is currently around 3% year-on-year, with expectations of falling below 2% by 2026 [1] - The new Prime Minister, Sanna Takamatsu, has introduced an economic policy framework called "Takamatsu Economics" focusing on crisis management, expansionary fiscal policy, and government responsibility in monetary policy [1] Economic Growth and Inflation - A significant decline in GDP is anticipated in Q3 of this year, yet domestic demand shows resilience [1] - Inflation is projected to decrease due to falling food prices and downward pressure from policy measures [1] - By 2027, inflation may gradually rise back to 2% after dipping below 2% in 2026 [1] Monetary Policy - The stance of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda aligns with Prime Minister Takamatsu's views, distinguishing between cost-push and demand-pull inflation [1] - No immediate policy adjustments are expected from Ueda following the new government's inauguration [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise interest rates in January 2026, pause for a year, and then implement two more rate hikes in 2027 [1]

Economic Overview - Japan is experiencing a prolonged inflation period, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising for 48 consecutive months, and the CPI growth rate remaining above 3% for seven months from January to July this year [1][4] - The Bank of Japan has updated its inflation forecast, expecting core CPI to be 2.7%, 1.8%, and 2.0% for the fiscal years 2025-2027, maintaining previous expectations [1] Consumer Impact - Rising prices are significantly affecting the purchasing power of Japanese citizens, with real wages declining for eight consecutive months due to inflation outpacing wage growth [5][6] - The average price of essential goods, including rice, has surged, with the price of 5 kg of rice reaching 4,205 yen (approximately 196 RMB), remaining above 4,000 yen for five consecutive weeks [3][4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Japan is experiencing rapid price increases, with average new home prices in Tokyo's 23 wards reaching 133.09 million yen (approximately 6.25 million RMB), a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [6][7] - Foreign investment is driving demand in the real estate sector, with 20% to 40% of new apartments in central Tokyo purchased by foreigners [7][9] Government Response - The Japanese government is cautious about raising interest rates, opting instead for a "time for space" approach, focusing on observing wage growth and enhancing productivity through digital transformation [5] - There are discussions about tightening regulations on foreign investments in real estate to prevent excessive foreign ownership of land [2][10] Long-term Concerns - The ongoing inflation and rising property prices may lead to a potential real estate bubble, with warnings from experts about the risks of speculative trading in the market [10][11] - Japan's demographic challenges, including a declining population and low interest in homeownership among younger generations, may limit long-term demand for real estate [11]

Core Insights - The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party signals the introduction of a new economic policy framework known as "Takaichi Economics" [1] - This policy is perceived as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics," but with a stronger emphasis on fiscal expansion [1][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring the implications of this political shift on Japan's monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and yen exchange rate [1] Economic Policy Framework - "Takaichi Economics" is structured around three main pillars, reminiscent of "Abenomics" [2] - The first pillar focuses on enhancing national crisis management capabilities and promoting economic growth [3] - The second pillar advocates for expansionary fiscal policies, emphasizing the need to raise taxes and utilize existing government funds to avoid increasing Japan's national debt [3] - The third pillar clarifies that the government will be responsible for monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan retains autonomy in selecting specific policy tools [3] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The policy stance of Takaichi aligns with that of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, both recognizing the current inflation as cost-push rather than demand-driven [4] - Nomura Securities maintains its forecast that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in January 2026, with a potential pause thereafter [4] - However, there are uncertainties; a rapid depreciation of the yen or a stock market rally could lead to an earlier rate hike, while fiscal expansion could hinder rate increases [4] Yen Exchange Rate Outlook - The yen is expected to face short-term selling pressure, with the dollar-yen exchange rate potentially testing the critical level of 150 [5][6] - The sustainability of the yen's weakness will depend on Takaichi's public statements regarding the independence of the central bank [7] - Any signals perceived as attempts to curb or prevent interest rate hikes could lead to further depreciation of the yen [7] Upcoming Political Events - Takaichi is expected to be nominated as Prime Minister around October 15 [8] - A significant diplomatic event is the anticipated visit of U.S. President Donald Trump from October 27 to 29, focusing on trade agreements, including Japan's $550 billion foreign direct investment [8] - The new government is expected to draft a supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 in late November, which will reveal the actual scale of fiscal expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Prominent economists warn that the UK is heading towards a debt crisis similar to the 1970s due to the fiscal policies of Chancellor Reeves, potentially requiring assistance from the IMF [1][3][4] Economic Situation - The UK's fiscal deficit is projected to reach £50 billion, with rising borrowing costs leading to increased interest rates on government debt [1][6] - The debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 96.3%, ranking fifth among developed countries, with interest payments expected to total £111.2 billion this year [6] Inflation and Economic Growth - Economists predict that inflation, particularly in food prices, may remain around 5% next year, contributing to a period of "stagflation" [1][6] - The current economic policies are seen as exacerbating demand-pull and cost-push inflation, reminiscent of the 1970s [4] Political Reactions - Opposition leaders criticize the government's approach, suggesting that tax increases will worsen the economic situation, advocating for spending cuts instead [6][7] - The Conservative Party emphasizes its historical role in stabilizing the economy during past crises, including the 1976 IMF bailout and the 2008 financial crisis [7] Government Response - The UK Treasury dismisses claims of an impending 1970s-style debt crisis as unfounded, asserting that current fiscal measures are aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting growth [8]