旺季附加费(PSS)
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银河期货航运日报-20260209
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is continuously gaming the implementation of price increases and the situation of geopolitical conflicts. The EC market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. MSK has announced the suspension of the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on the Nordic routes. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot freight rates [6]. - The freight volume is gradually entering the decline phase after reaching the peak. The supply - side shipping capacity deployment has little change compared with the previous period. The shipping capacity in the first week of March after the Spring Festival is relatively small, and then rebounds with the resumption of work and production. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates are in the off - season from February to April. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities starting from April 1st, the expected rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and it is still difficult for a large number of ships on the European routes to resume operation in the first half of the year. The risk in the Iranian situation has not been eliminated. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations and the military deployment in the Middle East [7]. - For trading strategies, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival as the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For arbitrage, positive spreads between June and October contracts should be rolled at low levels [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Disk - Different futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) have different closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interest, and open interest change rates. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,756.0, up 16.1 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 124.0 (down 44.39%) and an open interest of 1,437.0 (up 0.56%) [4]. - The price differences between different contracts (such as EC02 - EC04, EC02 - EC06, etc.) and their price changes are also presented. For example, the price difference between EC02 and EC04 is 518, up 9.3 [4]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Different container freight rates (such as SCFIS European Line, SCFIS US West Line, etc.) have different prices, week - on - week and year - on - year changes. For example, the SCFIS European Line is at 1657.94 points, down 7.49% week - on - week and 29.54% year - on - year [4]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month price is $63.28 per barrel, up 0.80% week - on - week and down 10.29% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price is $67.44 per barrel, up 0.84% week - on - week and down 9.3% year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is in a state of continuous gaming. The EC market shows a volatile trend. MSK's decision to stop collecting PSS on the Nordic routes and the post - holiday spot freight rates need to be monitored. The demand for goods is in a downward phase after reaching the peak, and the supply - side shipping capacity deployment has little change. Geopolitical factors also have an impact on the shipping market [6][7]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival as the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to factors such as the vacuum period of spot freight rates before the festival and geopolitical risks [8]. - Arbitrage: Positive spreads between June and October contracts should be rolled at low levels [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The US has imposed tariffs on countries trading with Iran and sanctioned 15 entities, 2 individuals, and 14 ships related to Iranian oil and petrochemical products [11]. - Spain hopes to further develop its relationship with China, and the Spanish Prime Minister plans to visit China this year [12]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump to discuss US - Iran negotiations, and the Iranian Foreign Minister has threatened US military bases in the region [13].
建信期货集运指数日报-20251212
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:36
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded slightly this week, and shipping companies announced price increases, boosting the market's price - increase sentiment. The 02 contract's over - valuation is difficult to prove in the short term, and short - selling has low cost - effectiveness. Attention should be paid to the possible over - valuation of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rebounded slightly this week. Shipping companies such as Maersk, HPL, and Premier Alliance announced price increases, which may boost the market's pre - Spring Festival price - increase expectations. The over - valuation of the 02 contract is hard to verify in the short term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possible over - valuation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 - 04 contracts [8] 2. Industry News - From December 1st to 5th, the China export container shipping market was stable. The comprehensive index declined slightly. The manufacturing PMI in November showed an improvement in China's manufacturing. The eurozone's unemployment rate in October rose slightly, and the European economy's recovery was weak. The North American labor and manufacturing markets were also weak. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases. There were also some geopolitical news such as the situation in Gaza and the possible resumption of Maersk's Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS for the European route increased from 1483.65 on December 1st to 1509.1 on December 8th, a 1.7% increase. SCFIS for the US West route increased from 948.77 to 960.51, a 1.2% increase [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on December 11th is presented in Table 1, including contract information such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - There are various shipping - related data charts, including the Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate, European container ship capacity, and global container ship order backlog [13][18][19][23]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251211
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:42
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The spot SCFIS index rebounded slightly this week, and shipping companies jointly announced price increases, boosting the market's price - increase sentiment. The 02 contract's over - valuation is difficult to prove in the short term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possible over - valuation of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread opportunity between 02 - 04 [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rebounded slightly this week, and shipping companies such as Maersk, HPL, and Premier Alliance announced price increases, which may boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. The 02 contract's over - valuation is hard to prove in the short term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possible over - valuation of the April contract and the positive spread opportunity between 02 - 04 [8] Group 5: Industry News - From December 1 to 5, the China export container shipping market was stable. The comprehensive index declined slightly. The manufacturing PMI in November showed an improvement in the manufacturing industry. The eurozone's unemployment rate rose slightly, and the European economy's recovery momentum was weak. The US labor market and manufacturing showed signs of weakness. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases. There were developments in the Gaza situation and the Suez Canal navigation issue [9][10] Group 6: Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates - SCFIS for European routes increased from 1483.65 on December 1 to 1509.1 on December 8, a 1.7% increase. SCFIS for US West routes increased from 948.77 to 960.51, a 1.2% increase [12] 2. Futures Quotes of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on December 10 is presented in Table 1, including contract information such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, changes, trading volume, open interest, and position changes [6] 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - There are charts showing European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][23]
集运日报:5月宣涨失败,悲观氛围下盘面宽幅震荡,且处于探底过程,近期操作难度较高,风险偏好者可等待反弹机会-20250422
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 05:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the price increase announcement failed, and the market is in a pessimistic atmosphere with wide - range fluctuations and in a bottom - searching process. The short - term operation is difficult, and risk - preferring investors can wait for rebound opportunities [1][4]. - The core logic for this year lies in the trend of international tariff policies. In April, the US may have repeated tariff policies for countries such as Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding a major disturbing factor to future shipping trends. Shipping companies intend to support prices, but cannot avoid price wars among alliances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On April 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1508.44 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1368.41 points, down 13.8% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 921.24 points, down 4.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 839.73 points, down 10.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.42 points, down 0.46% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1370.58 points, down 24.10 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1316 USD/TEU, down 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2103 USD/FEU, down 4.5% from the previous period [2]. - On April 18, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1110.94 points, up 0.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1486.14 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 811.65 points, up 1.9% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In the eurozone, the March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the March services PMI preliminary value was 50.4 (expected 51), and the March composite PMI preliminary value rose to 50.4 (February was 50.2, the highest since August). The March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2]. - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in the past three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed down significantly [3]. - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI preliminary value was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI preliminary value was 53.5, the highest in three months [3]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, the operation is difficult. It is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the volatility is large [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended that risk - preferring investors try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4]. d. Contract Information - On April 18, the main contract 2506 closed at 1533.0, with a decline of 1.11%, a trading volume of 53,900 lots, and an open interest of 36,100 lots, a reduction of 817 lots from the previous day [4]. - The price limit for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 16%. The company's margin for contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 - 2602 is 100 lots [4]. e. Other Information - Most shipping companies will continue to use the April - end freight rates in early May, and the price increase announcement in early May failed, with a generally bearish atmosphere and wide - range market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. - Maersk will adjust the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for routes from countries in the Far East (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice, with 1000 US dollars for small containers and 2000 US dollars for large containers [5]. - There are reports that Hamas is willing to reach a long - term cease - fire with Israel and hand over the governance control of Gaza to an independent institution, but the news has not been confirmed by Hamas [4][5]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a statement opposing the US 301 investigation measures against China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding sectors [5].
集运日报:悲观情绪略有缓解,多空博弈下,盘面宽幅震荡,近期操作难度较高,风险偏好者可等待反弹机会-20250418
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 05:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has slightly eased, with the market fluctuating widely under the game between bulls and bears. It is difficult to operate in the near term, and risk - takers can wait for rebound opportunities [1] - The tariff policy of the United States in April will add a large disturbing factor to the future shipping trend, and the price war between shipping alliances needs to be concerned [4] - Market bearish factors have slightly weakened their impact on the market. The tariff war may delay the peak season of the European line, and the market is fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On April 14, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1129.45 points, up 3.7% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 961.61 points, down 2.10% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 934.17 points, up 1.76% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1222.05 points, down 17.95% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1394.68 points, up 1.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1356 USD/TEU, up 1.5% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2202 USD/FEU, down 4.8% from the previous period [2] - On April 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1107.28 points, up 0.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1495.45 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 796.27 points, up 2.5% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in March was 48.7 (expected 48.2), the preliminary services PMI was 50.4 (expected 51), and the preliminary composite PMI rose to 50.4 (50.2 in February, the highest since August). The Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous value - 12.7) [2] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, with a significantly slower contraction rate of employment [3] - In the US, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8 (the lowest in three months), the preliminary services PMI was 54.3 (the highest in three months), and the preliminary composite PMI was 53.5 (the highest in three months) [3] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Risk - takers can try to go long lightly when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of tariff fermentation, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuation is large [4] - Long - term strategy: Currently, the far - month contracts are deeply discounted. All profits have been recommended to be taken. It is recommended to wait for the price war in April to be clear and the far - month contracts to adjust to a suitable price before making a layout [4] Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On April 17, the main contract 2506 closed at 1555.2, down 1.67%, with a trading volume of 66,900 lots and an open interest of 36,900 lots, an increase of 506 lots from the previous day [4] Other Information - Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge (PSS) for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong, China) to the US and Canada, effective May 15, 2025, until further notice. The PSS is 1000 US dollars for 20 - foot containers and 2000 US dollars for 40 - foot containers [5]