智通财经APP获悉，随着美国总统特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的举动加剧了人们对央行独立性受损的担忧，期权交易员加大了对30年期美债表现将落后于其 他期限美国的押注。周二，对长期美债看跌期权(在价格下跌时获利)的需求相较于看涨期权(在价格上涨时获利)有所增加。看跌期权的所谓"偏斜度"升至近 两周以来的最高水平。值得注意的是，30年期美债是收益率曲线上唯一一个投资者寻求下行保护(而非对上涨进行对冲)的部分。 30年期美债在周二的表现落后于其他期限的美债，其与5年期美债的收益率差距达到2021年以来的最高水平。特朗普以所谓涉嫌房贷欺诈的理由罢免库克的 举动引发了人们对美联储能否有效控制通胀的质疑。市场猜测特朗普将任命一位更倾向于降息的政策制定者以取代库克。这可能有助于压低短期利率，但同 时也存在推高长期通胀预期的风险。 自上周美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中暗示可能需要降息以支持劳动力市场以来，美债收益率曲线已经趋陡。所谓的"曲线趋陡交易"(curve steepener，即押注长 期美债跑输短期美债)在近几个月非常受欢迎。其逻辑是：美联储可能会降低借贷成本，从而利好短期美债，而通胀和财政风险则可能推高长期美债收益 率。 此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the assessment of monetary supply tightness and the appropriate benchmark interest rate for the Federal Reserve has intensified as excess liquidity in the U.S. financial system is expected to continue shrinking in the coming months [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Limitations - Several experts, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and JPMorgan analyst Teresa Ho, have pointed out the limitations of the federal funds rate as a measure of liquidity, suggesting that the Fed should consider alternative tools [1][3]. - The federal funds market, once a key indicator of financing conditions, has seen a significant decline in daily trading volume, now averaging about $110 billion, which is only 0.5% of commercial bank assets, compared to 2% before 2008 [1]. - The overnight general collateral repurchase agreement rate has become a more significant pricing basis for benchmark rates, with daily trading volumes reaching several trillion dollars [1]. Group 2: Shift in Monetary Policy Tools - The true levers of monetary control have shifted to a series of rates set directly by the Fed, including the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), rather than relying solely on the federal funds rate [3][4]. - The federal funds rate has remained relatively stable at 4.33% as of July 23, despite adjustments to policy rates, indicating a disconnect from actual market dynamics [3][4]. - Experts argue that the federal funds rate is no longer at the core of monetary market dynamics, raising concerns about its ability to signal potential liquidity pressures [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The market is facing potential liquidity pressures as the U.S. Treasury slows cash reserve rebuilding, with expectations that the use of reverse repo tools may approach zero in September [5][7]. - Historical context shows that in 2019, the Fed's balance sheet reduction led to significant rate spikes due to insufficient bank reserves, highlighting the importance of monitoring reserve levels [5]. - Experts suggest that alternative indicators, such as the three-party general collateral rate (TGCR), may better reflect real funding flows and should be considered as replacements for the federal funds rate [7].