智通财经APP获悉，随着政策制定者评估美联储在9月进行今年首次降息后降低美国借贷成本的利弊， 一个新的问题开始变得紧迫——美联储最初设定的基准利率指标在当前是否依然恰当。 各大央行通过设定利率水平来调控经济，以鼓励或抑制企业投资新项目、消费者购买房屋和汽车等活 动。数十年来，美联储一直通过调整银行间在所谓联邦基金市场上为满足日常需求而相互拆借的利率来 引导经济。从历史上看，对联邦基金利率的调整会影响流入经济的信贷规模，从而防止经济过热或过 冷。 而当前问题的关键在于，美联储是否将其基准利率与一个足够重要、能够反映金融体系内部真实状况的 市场挂钩。自美联储在2008年金融危机期间以及疫情期间为刺激停滞的经济而大规模购买债券以来，有 影响力的市场观察人士已经指出了联邦基金利率的局限性。 数十年来，联邦基金利率指的是银行间进行隔夜拆借的利率。它长期影响着从信用卡、汽车贷款利率到 商业借贷等一切信贷的成本。从20世纪80年代直到2008年金融危机，美联储一直设定一个精确的联邦基 金利率目标，此后才改为设定一个0.25个百分点的浮动区间。 然而近年来，该利率更多地成为美联储对经济看法的信号，而非银行间倾向于相互拆借的利 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, leading to increased demand for put options on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a bearish outlook on long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in demand for long-term Treasury put options, with the skew reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, reflecting a bearish sentiment [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has widened to the highest level since 2021, indicating that 30-year Treasuries are underperforming compared to shorter maturities [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Fed Chair Powell's hint at potential rate cuts to support the labor market, the yield curve has steepened, with investors favoring curve steepener trades [3] - Market speculation suggests that Trump may appoint a more dovish policymaker to replace Cook, which could lower short-term rates but risk increasing long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Group 3: Investor Positioning - According to JPMorgan's Treasury All-Client Positioning Survey, net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have decreased by 2 percentage points, shifting to a neutral stance, while net short positions remain unchanged [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the assessment of monetary supply tightness and the appropriate benchmark interest rate for the Federal Reserve has intensified as excess liquidity in the U.S. financial system is expected to continue shrinking in the coming months [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Limitations - Several experts, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and JPMorgan analyst Teresa Ho, have pointed out the limitations of the federal funds rate as a measure of liquidity, suggesting that the Fed should consider alternative tools [1][3]. - The federal funds market, once a key indicator of financing conditions, has seen a significant decline in daily trading volume, now averaging about $110 billion, which is only 0.5% of commercial bank assets, compared to 2% before 2008 [1]. - The overnight general collateral repurchase agreement rate has become a more significant pricing basis for benchmark rates, with daily trading volumes reaching several trillion dollars [1]. Group 2: Shift in Monetary Policy Tools - The true levers of monetary control have shifted to a series of rates set directly by the Fed, including the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), rather than relying solely on the federal funds rate [3][4]. - The federal funds rate has remained relatively stable at 4.33% as of July 23, despite adjustments to policy rates, indicating a disconnect from actual market dynamics [3][4]. - Experts argue that the federal funds rate is no longer at the core of monetary market dynamics, raising concerns about its ability to signal potential liquidity pressures [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The market is facing potential liquidity pressures as the U.S. Treasury slows cash reserve rebuilding, with expectations that the use of reverse repo tools may approach zero in September [5][7]. - Historical context shows that in 2019, the Fed's balance sheet reduction led to significant rate spikes due to insufficient bank reserves, highlighting the importance of monitoring reserve levels [5]. - Experts suggest that alternative indicators, such as the three-party general collateral rate (TGCR), may better reflect real funding flows and should be considered as replacements for the federal funds rate [7].