智通财经APP获悉，随着美国总统特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的举动加剧了人们对央行独立性受损的担忧，期权交易员加大了对30年期美债表现将落后于其 他期限美国的押注。周二，对长期美债看跌期权(在价格下跌时获利)的需求相较于看涨期权(在价格上涨时获利)有所增加。看跌期权的所谓"偏斜度"升至近 两周以来的最高水平。值得注意的是，30年期美债是收益率曲线上唯一一个投资者寻求下行保护(而非对上涨进行对冲)的部分。 30年期美债在周二的表现落后于其他期限的美债，其与5年期美债的收益率差距达到2021年以来的最高水平。特朗普以所谓涉嫌房贷欺诈的理由罢免库克的 举动引发了人们对美联储能否有效控制通胀的质疑。市场猜测特朗普将任命一位更倾向于降息的政策制定者以取代库克。这可能有助于压低短期利率，但同 时也存在推高长期通胀预期的风险。 自上周美联储主席鲍威尔在讲话中暗示可能需要降息以支持劳动力市场以来，美债收益率曲线已经趋陡。所谓的"曲线趋陡交易"(curve steepener，即押注长 期美债跑输短期美债)在近几个月非常受欢迎。其逻辑是：美联储可能会降低借贷成本，从而利好短期美债，而通胀和财政风险则可能推高长期美债收益 率。 此外 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于美国总统特朗普宣布罢免美联储理事库克的举动引发了人们对美联储能否有效控制通胀的质疑，长期美债下跌，美债收益率曲线趋 陡。5年期与30年期美债收益率之间的差距一度扩大至116个基点，为2021年以来的最高水平。截至发稿，30年期美债收益率升至4.932%，20年期美债收益 率升至4.898%，而2年期美债收益率则降至3.717%。 在特朗普的贸易政策和不断膨胀的联邦财政赤字打压市场情绪之际，这一最新消息进一步加剧了市场对美国资产的负面情绪。交易员全年都在寻找美元和美 债以外的避险替代品，而任何对美联储独立性削弱的认知都可能加速这一过程。鉴于最新的事态发展，交易员将密切关注市场参与者对本周美债拍卖(包括5 年期和7年期美债)的反应。 特朗普罢免库克的举动可能带来深远的经济和政治影响。将库克逐出美联储理事会将为特朗普提供任命忠诚者的机会。特朗普曾表示，他只会任命支持降息 的官员。 美联储理事会是美联储的核心决策机构，共有7个席位，均由总统提名并经参议院批准。除了主席鲍威尔，其余6名成员中，美联储负责监管事务的副主席米 歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒由特朗普在第一个任期内提名任命。剩余 ...

Group 1 - The potential successors for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell include James Bullard and former economic advisor Mark Sulzman, expanding the list of candidates to around 10 individuals [1][2][3] - Morgan Stanley economists have adjusted their forecast, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in September, followed by three additional cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the benchmark rate to between 3.25% and 3.5% [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Board member is expected to enhance market expectations for future rate cuts, as he is perceived to be more dovish [1][5][6] Group 2 - The current economic environment, including signs of a weakening labor market and political pressures from President Trump, is influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [5][6] - The upcoming employment data in August will be crucial in determining the extent of potential rate cuts, with a 4.4% unemployment rate possibly supporting larger cuts [5][6] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds may steepen further if Trump's key appointment to the Federal Reserve is successful, reflecting market reactions to anticipated dovish policies [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields are expected to end a four-day rise, with the 10-year yield increasing nearly 1 basis point to 4.39%, partially reversing a 10 basis point decline since the weak June PPI data was released [1] - The 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose by approximately 2 basis points, reaching 4.95% and 4.96% respectively [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at a regulatory meeting focused on large bank capital frameworks, with his remarks likely to address Basel III final rules, stress tests, and capital requirements [4] - Powell faces increasing pressure from former President Trump and Republican lawmakers regarding the Fed's renovation costs, which has drawn significant attention from traders and investors [4] - The potential for Powell's removal has led investors to bet on a steepening yield curve, with Deutsche Bank strategists predicting that if Trump moves to dismiss Powell, the 30-year Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points [5] Group 3 - Following reports of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, a macro trading alert was issued, suggesting a strategy of buying 2-year Treasuries while selling 10-year Treasuries, based on expectations of a more dovish new Fed chair [5] - This trading strategy is seen as a hedge against the risk of Trump attempting to remove Powell, with expectations that a weakened Fed independence could raise long-term inflation expectations and thus long-term bond yields [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report from Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) indicates that the trend of investors withdrawing from U.S. assets and the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to continue in the second half of this year [1] - PIMCO anticipates that the investment narrative for the first half of 2025 will remain relevant in several aspects, including the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the widening gap between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The company believes that global markets will continue to outperform the U.S. market [1] Group 2 - PIMCO favors global short-term and medium-term bonds in its investment strategy [1] - The report suggests that the extent of interest rate cuts by central banks may exceed expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Gundlach suggests that the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is likely to continue, indicating potential shifts in the bond market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gundlach highlights that the current economic conditions are conducive to a steepening yield curve, which may reflect investor expectations of future interest rate hikes [1] - The steepening yield curve could signal a transition in monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve may need to respond to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A sustained steepening of the yield curve may impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and utilities [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of changing yield dynamics, potentially favoring shorter-duration bonds to mitigate interest rate risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors in the U.S. bond market, such as DoubleLine Capital, are either avoiding or shorting 30-year U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over rising government budget deficits and debt burdens [2][6][7] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries reached 5.15%, nearing the highest level since 2007, driven by fears of increased bond issuance to cover deficits [3][5] - The yield curve has steepened significantly this year, with the 30-year yield rising sharply while shorter-term yields have declined [2][3] - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year yields has exceeded 100 basis points for the first time since 2021, indicating pressure on long-term bonds [3][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are shifting their focus from long-term to shorter-term bonds, favoring those with lower interest rate risk but still offering decent returns [2][6] - Pimco and other firms are advocating for a cautious stance on 30-year Treasuries, preferring the 5-year and 10-year segments of the yield curve [6][7] - There is speculation about the U.S. Treasury potentially reducing or halting the auction of long-term bonds due to weak demand [5][7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming 30-year Treasury auction on June 12 is anticipated to be a critical test for market confidence in long-term bonds [9] - Recent weak demand for long-term bonds in both the U.S. and Japan has raised concerns about the sustainability of long-term bond issuance [9]