摘要周四（8月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金波动率逐步下降，目前来看，黄金价格尚未突破区间，且市 场对于美联储降息预期维持在87%左右，等待美国经济数据落地之后的变化，金价走势多空拉锯等待重 要压力区间突破。 美元和债市的走势与黄金密切相关，周三美元冲高回落，一度触及98.72的近三周高点，最终收报98.17 附近，这种波动源于投资者对美联储政策和法国政局的双重关注。美元的持稳一定程度上压制了金价， 但对美联储独立性的担忧挥之不去，这为黄金提供了缓冲。 周四（8月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金波动率逐步下降，目前来看，黄金价格尚未突破区间，且市场对 于美联储降息预期维持在87%左右，等待美国经济数据落地之后的变化，金价走势多空拉锯等待重要压 力区间突破。 【要闻速递】 总体上，美元和债市的联动为黄金价格提供了支撑，如果收益率继续下行，金价的上涨空间将进一步打 开。 【技术分析】 从技术角度来看，日线图显示，黄金价格交投在其所有移动平均线之上，20日简单移动平均线(SMA)缓 慢上升至3357.20美元/盎司附近。100日均线和200日均线在上述短期均线下方保持向上倾斜，与占主导 地位的看涨趋势一致。最后，鉴于新的周峰 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, leading to increased demand for put options on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a bearish outlook on long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in demand for long-term Treasury put options, with the skew reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, reflecting a bearish sentiment [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has widened to the highest level since 2021, indicating that 30-year Treasuries are underperforming compared to shorter maturities [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Fed Chair Powell's hint at potential rate cuts to support the labor market, the yield curve has steepened, with investors favoring curve steepener trades [3] - Market speculation suggests that Trump may appoint a more dovish policymaker to replace Cook, which could lower short-term rates but risk increasing long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Group 3: Investor Positioning - According to JPMorgan's Treasury All-Client Positioning Survey, net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have decreased by 2 percentage points, shifting to a neutral stance, while net short positions remain unchanged [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, with the spread between 5-year and 30-year yields reaching its highest level since 2021 at 116 basis points [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market speculates that Trump will appoint a more dovish policymaker to replace Cook, which aligns with his stance on urging the Fed to ease monetary policy, potentially lowering short-term rates but risking higher long-term inflation expectations [4]. - Following the announcement, the dollar index initially fell but recovered some losses after Cook stated she would not resign, indicating market sensitivity to changes in Fed leadership [6]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's action to remove Cook could allow him to appoint loyalists who support rate cuts, which may further challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, a key factor in maintaining the dollar's safe-haven status [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve Board, consisting of seven members nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate, may see a shift in its composition towards more dovish members if Trump successfully appoints new governors [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The recent developments have intensified negative sentiment towards U.S. assets, with traders seeking alternatives to the dollar and Treasuries amid concerns over the Fed's independence [5]. - Standard & Poor's recently reaffirmed the U.S. AA+ credit rating but warned that political developments undermining the Fed's independence could put this rating under pressure [5].

Group 1 - The potential successors for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell include James Bullard and former economic advisor Mark Sulzman, expanding the list of candidates to around 10 individuals [1][2][3] - Morgan Stanley economists have adjusted their forecast, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in September, followed by three additional cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the benchmark rate to between 3.25% and 3.5% [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve Board member is expected to enhance market expectations for future rate cuts, as he is perceived to be more dovish [1][5][6] Group 2 - The current economic environment, including signs of a weakening labor market and political pressures from President Trump, is influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [5][6] - The upcoming employment data in August will be crucial in determining the extent of potential rate cuts, with a 4.4% unemployment rate possibly supporting larger cuts [5][6] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds may steepen further if Trump's key appointment to the Federal Reserve is successful, reflecting market reactions to anticipated dovish policies [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields are expected to end a four-day rise, with the 10-year yield increasing nearly 1 basis point to 4.39%, partially reversing a 10 basis point decline since the weak June PPI data was released [1] - The 20-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose by approximately 2 basis points, reaching 4.95% and 4.96% respectively [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at a regulatory meeting focused on large bank capital frameworks, with his remarks likely to address Basel III final rules, stress tests, and capital requirements [4] - Powell faces increasing pressure from former President Trump and Republican lawmakers regarding the Fed's renovation costs, which has drawn significant attention from traders and investors [4] - The potential for Powell's removal has led investors to bet on a steepening yield curve, with Deutsche Bank strategists predicting that if Trump moves to dismiss Powell, the 30-year Treasury yield could rise by over 50 basis points [5] Group 3 - Following reports of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, a macro trading alert was issued, suggesting a strategy of buying 2-year Treasuries while selling 10-year Treasuries, based on expectations of a more dovish new Fed chair [5] - This trading strategy is seen as a hedge against the risk of Trump attempting to remove Powell, with expectations that a weakened Fed independence could raise long-term inflation expectations and thus long-term bond yields [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report from Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) indicates that the trend of investors withdrawing from U.S. assets and the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to continue in the second half of this year [1] - PIMCO anticipates that the investment narrative for the first half of 2025 will remain relevant in several aspects, including the continued depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the widening gap between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The company believes that global markets will continue to outperform the U.S. market [1] Group 2 - PIMCO favors global short-term and medium-term bonds in its investment strategy [1] - The report suggests that the extent of interest rate cuts by central banks may exceed expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Bond King" Gundlach suggests that the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is likely to continue, indicating potential shifts in the bond market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gundlach highlights that the current economic conditions are conducive to a steepening yield curve, which may reflect investor expectations of future interest rate hikes [1] - The steepening yield curve could signal a transition in monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve may need to respond to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A sustained steepening of the yield curve may impact various sectors, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and utilities [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of changing yield dynamics, potentially favoring shorter-duration bonds to mitigate interest rate risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major institutional investors in the U.S. bond market, such as DoubleLine Capital, are either avoiding or shorting 30-year U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over rising government budget deficits and debt burdens [2][6][7] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries reached 5.15%, nearing the highest level since 2007, driven by fears of increased bond issuance to cover deficits [3][5] - The yield curve has steepened significantly this year, with the 30-year yield rising sharply while shorter-term yields have declined [2][3] - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year yields has exceeded 100 basis points for the first time since 2021, indicating pressure on long-term bonds [3][5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are shifting their focus from long-term to shorter-term bonds, favoring those with lower interest rate risk but still offering decent returns [2][6] - Pimco and other firms are advocating for a cautious stance on 30-year Treasuries, preferring the 5-year and 10-year segments of the yield curve [6][7] - There is speculation about the U.S. Treasury potentially reducing or halting the auction of long-term bonds due to weak demand [5][7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming 30-year Treasury auction on June 12 is anticipated to be a critical test for market confidence in long-term bonds [9] - Recent weak demand for long-term bonds in both the U.S. and Japan has raised concerns about the sustainability of long-term bond issuance [9]