9月降息是正确的政策选择，但需以审慎和灵活的姿态执行，以确保经济在复杂环境中实现软着陆。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的演讲引发了全球金融市场的强烈反响。他明确表示，联 邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）极有可能在9月17日的会议上宣布下调联邦基金利率。这一信号将市场对 降息的预期概率从76%推高至89.2%，反映出投资者对美联储货币政策转向的强烈信心。 鉴于劳动力市场显著放缓和通胀压力的暂时性特征，美联储9月至少降息25个基点是必要且及时的政策 选择，旨在优先支持就业并防范经济进一步下行的风险。然而，降息步伐须谨慎，以避免长期通胀预期 失控或因政治压力损害美联储的独立性。 美联储的双重使命：就业与通胀的平衡 美联储的法定使命是实现最大就业和价格稳定，具体目标是将核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数控制 在2%左右，同时保持劳动力市场强劲。当通胀高于目标时，美联储通常通过维持或提高利率来抑制经 济过热；当劳动力市场疲软时，则倾向于降息以刺激就业和经济增长。然而，2025年中期，美国经济呈 现出复杂的局面：劳动力市场持续恶化，通胀压力因特朗普政府的新关税政策而加剧。这种"劳动力市 场疲软+通胀上升"的组合使 ...

▲当地时间2025年7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。图为美联储主席鲍威尔出席当天 记者会。图/IC photo 连续5次顶着特朗普压力不降息的美联储终于快顶不住了。 据新华社，在当地时间7月30日的美联储议息会议上，美联储还以9-2的投票维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%至4.50%之间不变，美联储主席鲍威尔还表 示，现在判断美联储是否会在9月的下次会议上降息还"为时过早"。但没过几天，支持美联储降息的"鸽派"声音突然成为主流。下一任美联储主席热门人 选沃勒在7月30日议息会议上就要求降息25个基点。 另据证券时报，当地时间8月4日，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，今年美联储可能需要降息两次。8月9日，美联储副主席鲍曼表示，支持今年降息三次并敦促 美联储在9月议息会议上启动降息。这一表态引发市场广泛关注。 美联储政策动向的重要观察工具、由芝加哥商品交易所开发的CME美联储观察工具也显示，美联储在9月会议上降息的概率已高达91.5%，无限逼近 100%。而此前其预测的降息概率分别是80.3%和89.4%。 一切迹象均显示，美联储将在9月开始降息已是板上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged amid uncertainties in inflation and the labor market, while continuing to monitor economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, unchanged after all five policy meetings this year [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 2 to maintain the rate, with two members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity growth slowed in the first half of the year, with a low unemployment rate and a solid labor market [1]. - The second quarter GDP growth rate was reported at 3%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter, leading to an estimated growth rate of approximately 1.2% for the first half of 2025 [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Trade Policy - Inflation remains elevated compared to the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, despite a decline from the 2022 peak [2]. - The impact of government policy changes, including higher tariffs, on economic activity and inflation is still uncertain, with potential short-term and long-term effects [2][3]. Group 4: Labor Market and Housing - The labor market is described as being in a balanced state, consistent with maximum employment [2]. - The housing market is experiencing a slowdown due to high mortgage rates and supply constraints, with a long-term housing shortage persisting [5][6]. Group 5: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the importance of maintaining its independence from political pressures, which allows for data-driven decision-making [7].

Core Viewpoint - The idle cash flowing in the U.S. financial system is expected to shrink in the coming months, reigniting debates on how to assess monetary supply tightness and which benchmark interest rates the Federal Reserve should target [2][3] Group 1: Federal Funds Rate and Its Relevance - The Federal Funds Rate, historically relied upon by central banks since the 1980s, is now seen as less relevant for managing credit flow in the economy [3] - The average daily borrowing amount in the Federal Funds market is approximately $110 billion, which is only about 0.5% of commercial bank assets, significantly lower than the pre-2008 level of around 2% [2] - Some experts suggest that other rates, such as the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and repo rates, may serve as better indicators of cash flow within the system [3][7] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The New York Fed plays a crucial role in withdrawing liquidity from the U.S. financial system and identifying early signs of market turmoil [4] - The last significant liquidity crunch occurred in 2019 when the Fed's balance sheet was rapidly reduced, leading to a spike in key lending rates [6] - Current bank reserves are ample at $3.38 trillion, but there are concerns that reserves may be allowed to drop to around $2.7 trillion, potentially increasing financing pressure in September [6][7] Group 3: Alternative Measures and Recommendations - Experts propose that the three-party general collateral repo rate (TGCR) and other repo benchmarks could be ideal substitutes for the Federal Funds Rate, as they reflect where financial institutions actually lend cash [7] - A report led by former New York Fed President William Dudley suggests that the Fed should stop announcing the Federal Funds Rate range and instead target the interest on reserve balances (IORB) [7] - The interconnectedness of short-term rates is emphasized, with some analysts arguing that the Federal Funds Rate is becoming less significant in the current financial landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the assessment of monetary supply tightness and the appropriate benchmark interest rate for the Federal Reserve has intensified as excess liquidity in the U.S. financial system is expected to continue shrinking in the coming months [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Rate Limitations - Several experts, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and JPMorgan analyst Teresa Ho, have pointed out the limitations of the federal funds rate as a measure of liquidity, suggesting that the Fed should consider alternative tools [1][3]. - The federal funds market, once a key indicator of financing conditions, has seen a significant decline in daily trading volume, now averaging about $110 billion, which is only 0.5% of commercial bank assets, compared to 2% before 2008 [1]. - The overnight general collateral repurchase agreement rate has become a more significant pricing basis for benchmark rates, with daily trading volumes reaching several trillion dollars [1]. Group 2: Shift in Monetary Policy Tools - The true levers of monetary control have shifted to a series of rates set directly by the Fed, including the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), rather than relying solely on the federal funds rate [3][4]. - The federal funds rate has remained relatively stable at 4.33% as of July 23, despite adjustments to policy rates, indicating a disconnect from actual market dynamics [3][4]. - Experts argue that the federal funds rate is no longer at the core of monetary market dynamics, raising concerns about its ability to signal potential liquidity pressures [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The market is facing potential liquidity pressures as the U.S. Treasury slows cash reserve rebuilding, with expectations that the use of reverse repo tools may approach zero in September [5][7]. - Historical context shows that in 2019, the Fed's balance sheet reduction led to significant rate spikes due to insufficient bank reserves, highlighting the importance of monitoring reserve levels [5]. - Experts suggest that alternative indicators, such as the three-party general collateral rate (TGCR), may better reflect real funding flows and should be considered as replacements for the federal funds rate [7].

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.28% on July 21, down from 4.30% the previous day [1] - Large trades in SOFR options indicate traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as much as previously expected this year [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that all participants agree it is appropriate to maintain the federal funds rate within the current target range [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - All attendees of the meeting believe that keeping the federal funds rate steady is suitable [1]

Core Points - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reported at 4.35% on July 3, down from 4.40% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on July 3, consistent with the previous day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, consistent with market expectations, marking four consecutive months of unchanged rates. The Fed had previously cut rates by 100 basis points over the past year [1][6]. Economic Projections - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. down from 1.7% to 1.4% for this year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the March projection. The growth forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from 1.8% to 1.6%, while the 2027 forecast remains at 1.8% [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% for this year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the March forecast. The PCE inflation forecast for this year is set at 3%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7%. The forecast for core PCE inflation is 3.1%, compared to 2.8% in March [6]. Dot Plot Insights - The dot plot indicates that 8 members support two rate cuts this year, a decrease of one from the March dot plot, while 7 members favor maintaining the current rate, an increase of three. This suggests a growing divergence within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [2][4]. Interest Rate Projections - The median projection for the federal funds rate remains at 3.9% for 2025, while the 2026 median projection has been raised from 3.4% to 3.6%. The long-term neutral rate expectation remains at 3% [1][5].

Core Insights - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) increased to 4.31% on May 27, up from 4.26% the previous day [1] - SOFR futures open interest saw significant growth, with an increase of $2.6 million/DV01 on Thursday, approximately $995,000/DV01 on Friday, and about $760,000/DV01 on Tuesday, totaling around 174,000 new contracts and bringing the total open interest close to 1.4 million, marking a new high for the current cycle [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the last trading day, consistent with the previous day [1]