美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）呼吁大幅降低利率以支持美国劳动力市场，他认为当前货币政策过于 紧缩，正在推高失业率。 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 不过米兰也承认，随着降息进程的推进，快速行动的必要性将会降低。他对2026年经济前景表达了相对 乐观的态度，并强调几乎所有的通胀超标都是"幻觉"，主要源于住房市场的供需失衡和货币政策的滞 后效应。 金融市场目前预计美联储将在12月9日至10日的会议上降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从目前 的3.75%至4%进一步下调。 劳动力市场疲软成降息主要理由 米兰将失业率上升直接归因于过紧的货币政策。他表示： 我们必须认识到失业率一直在上升，这是货币政策过于紧缩的结果。 最新数据显示，9月份失业率从8月的4.3%升至4.4%。 他警告称，如果美联储不继续以相当快的速度降息，货币政策将"扼杀所有积极发展的萌芽"，劳动力市 场将无法实现应有的复苏。Miran强调： 我们将成为失业率持续上升的源头，这并非好事。 他指出，近期的就业数据应该促使更多委员会成员认同继续降息的必要性。 周二 ...

"我的评估是，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减 弱，"威廉姆斯在演讲中说。"在没有任何证据表明关税产生第二轮效应的情况下，潜在通胀继续呈下降 趋势。" 威廉姆斯表示，贸易关税可能对当前的通胀率贡献了约0.5到0.75个百分点，但他补充说，他并不认为关 税会引发任何第二轮效应或其他对价格的溢出效应。 美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，随着劳动力市场疲软，他认为美联储近期仍有空间再次 降息。 在计划于本周五在智利圣地亚哥发表的演讲稿中，威廉姆斯表示，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通 胀的上行风险有所缓解。 "我认为货币政策处于适度限制性状态，尽管程度不及我们近期采取行动之前，"他说。"因此，我仍然 认为近期有进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间，以使政策立场更接近中性区间，从而维持我们实 现两个目标之间的平衡。" 威廉姆斯的言论表明，随着美联储主席鲍威尔试图在12月9日至10日的华盛顿会议之前，在分歧严重的 政策制定者群体中达成共识，再次降息仍是一种可能性。 继10月连续第二次降息后，多位官员表达了反对意见，或对是否支持12月连续第三次降息表示不确定。 在这一演 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%[1] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and reinvest all maturing MBS into short-term Treasuries was made[1] - Powell indicated that the decision for further rate cuts in December is "far from certain" due to internal disagreements within the committee[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate slightly rising but still low[2] - The October CPI in the Eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with core CPI growth stable at 2.4%[8] - The FHFA house price index in the U.S. showed a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 2.33%, but month-on-month growth turned positive[8] Market Outlook - U.S. equities have room for further gains, with the current market conditions differing from the late 1990s bubble due to sufficient financing surpluses among G4 non-financial corporations[2] - The expected strong performance in Q3 earnings and seasonal factors suggest positive returns for U.S. stocks in November and December[2] Risk Factors - A resurgence in inflation or a rebound in the labor market could lead the Federal Reserve to delay further rate cuts[3][20]

Core Insights - The report constructs a "3×3" matrix for analyzing USD liquidity, focusing on the federal funds market, repo market, and offshore USD market, while monitoring liquidity changes across scale, price, and policy dimensions [1][6][8] - Current structural pressures on USD liquidity are attributed to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and large-scale debt issuance, but the likelihood of a comprehensive liquidity crisis remains low under non-extreme conditions due to robust policy tools [1][3][6] Federal Funds Market - The federal funds market is the cornerstone of USD liquidity, with a focus on scale indicators. The Fed's balance sheet reduction since June 2022 has decreased total assets to 74.1% of the June 2022 level, but reverse repo tools (RRP) have provided a buffer, maintaining reserves at $3.2 trillion as of September 2025, which is 12.9% of total bank assets [1][13] - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) remains stable within the interest on reserves balance (IORB) of 4.15% and ON RRP of 4.0%, with discount window usage being restrained due to stigma effects [1][17] Repo Market - The repo market is a critical liquidity hub, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and primary dealer market-making capabilities as core observation points. Since September 2025, SOFR has fluctuated around the upper limit of the rate corridor, with a spread to ON RRP increasing to 16 basis points, indicating marginal tightening [2][20] - The ratio of primary dealer reverse repos to reserves has risen to 0.88, reflecting ongoing pressure, although it remains below crisis levels [2][20] Offshore USD Market - The offshore USD market has shown characteristics of "bondification" and "derivatization," with currency swap basis as a key observation indicator. Since 2025, the cross-currency basis for euro/USD and yen/USD has narrowed, indicating maintained offshore liquidity [2][27] - The use of central bank currency swaps and FIMA repo facilities during crises serves as significant signals of systemic liquidity pressure, with both tools available to address liquidity needs across various market levels [2][35][38] Future Outlook - Future USD liquidity faces multiple contraction pressures, including ongoing balance sheet reduction by the Fed and increased Treasury issuance, which may lead reserves to drop below $3 trillion by September 2025, approaching a critical threshold of $2.7 trillion [3][6] - The Fed has established a multi-layered liquidity management toolset, which includes the discount window, SRF, FIMA repo, and central bank currency swaps, to mitigate systemic risks under non-extreme conditions [3][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4% [1] - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening cycle, effective December 1, halting the balance sheet reduction that began in 2022 [2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the appropriateness of the rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive actions [4][6] Group 2 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is complex, with rising unemployment at 4.3% and inflation still above the Fed's target at 3% [6][20] - The lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates decision-making for policymakers, who must rely on private sector data [8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December are not aligned with the Fed's cautious stance, as indicated by Chairman Powell's comments [9][11] Group 3 - The economic landscape shows a bifurcation, where high-income individuals are benefiting from stock market gains while middle and low-income groups face employment anxieties [18][20] - The S&P Case-Shiller home price index showed only a 1.5% year-over-year increase, the lowest since July 2023, indicating a cooling in the housing market [13] - The Fed's policy adjustments aim to alleviate financing costs and enhance liquidity, but the underlying issues of income disparity complicate the effectiveness of these measures [20][23]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate from over 4% to 3.75% and announced a halt to balance sheet reduction in December, indicating a pause in monetary tightening [1] - The voting outcome was 10 to 2, with dissenting votes reflecting differing views on the pace of rate cuts, highlighting a lack of consensus within the committee [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with the CPI reported at 3%, above the 2% target, while employment data shows low unemployment but a slowdown in hiring, indicating accumulated risks rather than immediate threats [3] Group 2 - The decision to stop balance sheet reduction means that maturing securities will be redirected to short-term notes, maintaining a moderate level of liquidity in the market [5] - Rate cuts can stimulate credit expansion and consumer spending, but their effectiveness is conditional on business and consumer confidence, which is currently cautious [5] - Political factors, such as the government shutdown affecting data availability, create uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, potentially increasing public and market dissatisfaction [7] Group 3 - Future economic data will be crucial; weaker data may lead to expectations of further rate cuts, while rising inflation could limit the scope for cuts [9] - The Federal Reserve's current stance reflects a strategic holding of options rather than a definitive policy direction, indicating ongoing market and policy interactions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to halt balance sheet reduction indicates a greater reliance on the federal funds rate as the primary tool for implementing monetary policy and assessing liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its Treasury holdings starting December 1 [1] - Short-term money market rates have remained elevated for several weeks prior to this decision [1] - The Fed plans to continue reducing its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings and reinvest maturing funds into Treasury securities [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% to stimulate the stagnant job market and prevent a surge in unemployment [2][3] - Recent months have seen increasing concerns among Federal Reserve officials regarding the health of the labor market, leading them to prioritize job creation over combating inflation, which remains above the 2% target [2] - The decision to lower rates is not unanimous, with two Federal Reserve governors opposing the majority's decision, indicating a divide in perspectives on the appropriate monetary policy response [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has also announced the cessation of its quantitative tightening program, which had been removing funds from the financial system, effective December 1 [4] - Despite a lack of key information on inflation and employment due to a government shutdown, the Federal Reserve's decision was influenced by the September Consumer Price Index, which showed inflation above the target but with a lower-than-expected increase [4] - The recent rate cut brings the federal funds rate to its lowest level since December 2022, directly impacting interest rates on credit cards, auto loans, and indirectly affecting mortgage rates [4]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve executed its second interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4% [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in U.S. job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level [1] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term, but faces increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that there are short-term inflationary pressures and downside risks to employment, with significant disagreement within the committee regarding a potential rate cut in December [1] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) and will end its balance sheet reduction plan after three and a half years, marking a key shift towards monetary easing [1] Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets initially experienced a sharp decline but later stabilized [3] - By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 saw slight declines, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a small gain and reached a new closing high [3] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed will stop reducing its $6.6 trillion balance sheet due to signs of tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves [2] - Starting December 1, the Fed will no longer allow up to $5 billion of U.S. Treasury securities to mature without reinvestment, opting instead to maintain government bond inventory stability through rollovers [2]

智通财经APP获悉，10月30日凌晨，美国议息结果公布，美联储下调联邦基金利率0.25%，至3.75%至 4%，符合预期，委员会决定于12月1日结束缩表。同日，香港金管局将基本利率下调25个基点至 4.25%。 （原标题：香港金管局将基本利率下调25个基点至4.25%） 基本利率是用作计算经贴现窗进行回购交易时适用的贴现率的基础利率。目前基本利率定于当前的美国 联邦基金利率目标区间的下限加50基点，或隔夜及1个月香港银行同业拆息的5天移动平均数的平均值， 以较高者为准。 ...