美联储会议纪要：所有与会者都认为将联邦基金利率维持在当前目标区间是适当的。 ...

据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（7月3日，上周五休市）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.35%，之 前一天报4.40%。 上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 ...

乐观情绪高涨推动技术指标有所超买。 过去一周，美国迎来多项重要就业数据，虽然ADP报告意外下滑，非农就业报告、失业金申请和5月份 的职位空缺数据都传递了劳动力市场的健康状况。 美国劳工部称，上月全美非农就业岗位增长14.7万，远高于市场预期的10.6万。失业率从5月份的4.2% 降至4.1%，低于预期的4.3%。平均小时收入月率增长0.2%，与预期一致，同比增长3.7%。截至6月28日 的一周内，初请失业金人数从一周前修订的23.7万人降至23.3万人。这是自5月17日以来的最低水平。 与此同时，5月份的职位空缺为776.9万个，高于预期的730万个。不过整体招聘人数的下降进一步表 明，在特朗普政府对进口商品征收关税的不确定性下，劳动力市场已经进入低速运转状态， 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨（Bob Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，6月非农表现 不俗，黄金年龄段的劳动力参与率和就业人口比例都有所上升，在招聘速度低、消费者对劳动力市场的 看法恶化的阶段，这是令人鼓舞的迹象，"然而就业增长基础狭窄，州和地方政府就业人数激增可能是 由季节性因素驱动的，私营部门的就业增长显著放缓。"他认为，未来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant divide among its officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for no rate cuts while others support two cuts by the end of the year, indicating high uncertainty in policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Outlook - The dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows a split among 19 participants: 7 expect no rate cuts, 8 anticipate two cuts, and a few support one or three cuts [1][3]. - Barclays analysts predict only one 25 basis point cut in December 2023, with three cuts expected in 2026, bringing rates to a range of 3.25%-3.50% [2][5]. - The internal division stems from differing concerns: those favoring no cuts are worried about inflation risks, while those supporting cuts are focused on potential increases in unemployment and slowing economic growth [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Projections and Inflation - The latest economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts, with 2025's real GDP growth expected at 1.4%, down from 1.7% [7][8]. - PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 3.0% for 2025, with core PCE inflation at 3.1%, reflecting concerns over rising inflation risks [8][9]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8]. Group 3: Tariff Impact and Policy Caution - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting that high tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [6][9]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for caution, stating that the current policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to address various risks and uncertainties [10][11]. - Powell's remarks indicate a shift from viewing tariff impacts as temporary to recognizing their potential long-term effects on inflation and economic activity [11].

6月会议还发布了对通胀、失业率和经济增长的预期。 | Variable | | | Median1 | | | Central Tendency2 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | Longer | 2025 | 2026 | | | | | | run | | | | run | | | | Change in real GDP | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2-1.5 | 1.5-1.8 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.1-2.1 | 0.6-2. | | March projection | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5-1.9 | 1.6-1.9 | 1.6-2.0 | 1.7-2.0 | 1.0-2.4 | 0.6-2. | | Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ...

Group 1 - The dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently at 98.10, with a decrease of 0.02%, as global financial markets approach a critical week [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on June 18, which will significantly impact the U.S. economy, global asset prices, and investor sentiment [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with a focus on balancing inflation control and employment support [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025, with September potentially being the next cut's starting point, influenced by recent mild inflation data [1] - The actual actions of the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data performance, particularly retail sales data and subsequent economic indicators [1] - Technical analysis suggests that the dollar index may face resistance below 98.60 and support above 97.60, indicating a potential downward trend [2]

联邦基金利率期货2025年9月合约和一个月SOFR期货新增大量仓位，预示着基差交易活跃。周四（5月 29日），近月合约的基差交易量出现买盘。在那之前，报道称，一项法院裁决阻止了美国总统特朗普总 统的部分进口关税。扣除展期，美国国债期货的风险敞口普遍下降。 ...

据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（5月27日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.31%，之前一天报 4.26%。 上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 2025年6月SOFR期货的未平仓合约连续第三个交易日大幅增长，上周四增加260万美元/DV01、上周五 增加大约99.5万美元/DV01、（继周一休市之后）周二增加大约76.0万美元/DV01，这三天新增大约17.4 万合约，使得未平仓合约总量略低于140万，创当前周期的新高。 ...

据ICAP称，隔夜GC回购利率最初分别为4.30%、4.29%、以及4.28%，买卖价差为4.28%-4.27%。 上个交易日有效的联邦基金利率报4.33%，之前一天报4.33%。 这意味着，由于美国国债偿付和政府支持企业现金流入，前端资金充裕，SOFR 与美联储隔夜逆回购协 议 (RRP) 利率之间的利差收窄至1个基点，创2024年11月20日以来最窄。 "回购利率昨日继续受到挤压，因为每月这个时候回购市场交易的疲软基调比平时更加明显，"牛津经济 研究院分析师John Canavan在一份报告中写道。 据美国纽约联储数据，上个交易日（5月21日）担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）报4.26%，创2022年12月以 来最低水平，之前一天报4.27%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent constructive high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., which are expected to enhance bilateral trade relations and provide stability to the global economy [1][2][3] - The Chinese side, represented by Vice Premier He Lifeng, emphasized the importance of mutual respect and cooperation, stating that the essence of Sino-U.S. economic relations is mutual benefit and win-win outcomes [2][3] - Both sides agreed to establish a consultation mechanism to address mutual concerns in the economic field, indicating a commitment to ongoing dialogue and cooperation [2][3] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump hinted at significant developments from the negotiations, suggesting that substantial progress has been made, although specific details were not disclosed immediately [3][4] - U.S. trade representatives expressed optimism about the negotiations, indicating that the differences may not be as significant as previously thought, and substantial groundwork has been laid [4] - Market analysts noted that the easing of trade tensions could boost risk assets, with expectations of a positive market response as participants may re-enter positions following the talks [5][6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month targets for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, suggesting potential returns of approximately 7% and 14% respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for Chinese equities [6]