周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上表示，风险平衡的转变可能需要调整政策，就业下行风险正在上升，暗示可能调整利率。此言一出， 市场对9月降息的押注概率瞬间从75%飙升至90%。 目前，美国联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间。而今年6月美国总统特朗普在接受采访时表示，美国应将利率控制在1%或2%。 美联储降息会导致全球外汇、黄金、原油、股指、商品等出现大幅波动，除了股市会明显受到影响，期货市场也是波动不小。理论上美联储降息，将导致美 元指数下跌，黄金、有色金属出现上涨，对股票指数也是正面推动。但是由于此前对美联储降息的市场预期非常强烈，也不排除出现"见光死"的情况，量化 资金趁机"割韭菜"。 那么交易者如何应对呢？周五，美元指数大幅跳水，相较股票市场的火爆，近期期货市场上的国际黄金和白银、铜、铝、锌等品种则是涨幅滞后，横盘震荡 多日，而周五的上涨有向上选择方向的迹象。 但是，很多交易者表示，自己并不熟悉期货，买书学习期货，有的地方看不懂，但又找不到专业人士请教；面对专业的内容，没有专业人士指点，不仅学习 效率低，要学懂难度大；学了很多，不知道哪些有用，哪些没用。 现在机会来了，每日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant growth in China's futures market, with June's trading volume and turnover showing substantial year-on-year increases [1] - In June, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 739,579,418 contracts and a turnover of 52,793.414 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1] - For the first half of the year, the cumulative trading volume reached 4,076,413,725 contracts and a cumulative turnover of 3,397,278.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 17.82% and 20.68% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent public consultation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on the "Futures Company Classification Evaluation Regulations (Draft for Comments)", which aims to refine the evaluation standards for futures companies and enhance regulatory oversight in the futures market [2][3]. Group 1: Evaluation Regulations Overview - The new draft consists of 44 articles that clarify the scoring standards for futures company classification, optimize the scoring process, and simplify the evaluation procedure [2][3]. - The classification system is based on compliance status, risk management capabilities, market competitiveness, and the ability to serve the real economy, with a scoring system where the baseline score is 100 [3][4]. Group 2: Scoring and Deduction Adjustments - The evaluation uses a scoring system where companies are categorized into five classes (A, B, C, D, E) based on their scores, which are determined through deductions and additions from the baseline score [3][4]. - The deduction criteria have been refined, with specific penalties for non-compliance and risk management failures, including a reduction in points for severe violations [4][5]. Group 3: Additions to Evaluation Criteria - The evaluation criteria now include new indicators for market competitiveness and the ability to serve the real economy, such as "average daily positions of industry clients" and "average daily positions of medium- to long-term fund clients" [5][6]. - The market competitiveness indicators have been expanded to include nine specific metrics, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of a company's business performance and capital strength [5][6]. Group 4: Incentives and Special Circumstances - The regulations introduce incentives for companies that rank in the top 10% for derivative trading services to real enterprises, with a point system based on their ranking [6]. - Special circumstances that warrant additional points include cooperation with regulatory bodies during risk management and maintaining a clean compliance record over multiple evaluation periods [6].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the expected daily related transactions of Yong'an Futures Co., Ltd. for 2025, emphasizing that these transactions are necessary for normal business operations and will not harm the interests of non-related shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [2][11]. Group 1: Daily Related Transactions - The daily related transactions require approval from the shareholders' meeting [2]. - The transactions are based on fair pricing principles and will not affect the company's independence or its ability to continue operations [2][12]. - The company will strictly adhere to legal regulations and maintain decision-making independence during these transactions [12]. Group 2: 2024 Annual Related Transactions - The related parties involved in transactions with the company for 2024 include various entities, with Zhejiang Provincial International Trade and its subsidiaries no longer being related parties from December 2024 [3]. - The company has engaged in various transactions, including procurement of goods, provision of services, and trading activities, with specific financial details to be disclosed [4][5][6][7]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The company anticipates daily related transactions with major related parties from January 1, 2025, until the annual shareholders' meeting [8]. - The pricing for these transactions will be determined based on market prices, industry practices, and third-party pricing methods [10]. Group 4: Approval Process - The board of directors and supervisory board have reviewed and approved the related transaction proposals, which will be submitted for shareholder approval [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; Aluminum is recommended for observation; Nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; Tin is recommended for trading within a range; Gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction; Silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][12][17][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly; Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly; Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly; Urea is recommended for interval operation; Methanol is recommended for interval operation; Plastic is expected to fluctuate; Soda ash is recommended for holding short positions in call options [1][21][25][27] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and rebound; Apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][29][30] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; Eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; Corn is expected to fluctuate strongly; Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; Oils are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35][37] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market based on factors such as macro - economic data, industry supply and demand, and trade policies. For example, in the macro - finance sector, international trade policies and domestic economic data affect the performance of index futures and Treasury bonds. In the commodity sectors, supply - demand relationships, production costs, and trade frictions play important roles in determining price trends [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Influenced by international trade policies and domestic economic data, such as Japan's "zero - tariff" demand, Sino - US trade talks, and China's CPI and PPI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The adjustment in the bond market is related to capital expectations. The pricing logic of the futures market is that the steepening of the curve may be near the end. The opportunities in the bond market lie in the medium - long end of the curve, and the potential risks come from the short end [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures is lower than the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. The policy is expected to have repeated games on Sino - US tariffs, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term is small. The supply - demand situation is fair, but the market expectation is weak due to tariff and seasonal factors, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment of iron ore has declined slightly, with a significant drop in Australian shipments. The demand for iron ore is approaching the traditional off - season, and the high - level pig iron production has limited upward space. Considering the peak of pig iron production and continuous international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the supply pressure in some regions is emerging, and the demand is limited. For coke, the supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the weak terminal demand for steel. Overall, the coking coal and coke market is expected to fluctuate [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation has eased, but the negative impact of the previous trade war on the economy still exists. The domestic copper inventory has decreased, and the support for copper prices from fundamentals is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended for cautious trading within a range [12] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is increasing, and the price is decreasing. The alumina market is in a state of coexistence of production, resumption, and reduction. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended for observation [14] - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is not optimistic, and the supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is firm, but the pure nickel is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies [15][16] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for trading within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by Sino - US trade talks, US economic data, and tariff policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in July, and the central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's April inflation data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the export is restricted. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is still high. The price is at a low level, and the macro - situation dominates. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda has rebounded, but the supply pressure is large in the medium - term, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [22] - **Rubber**: In the short - term, the price of rubber is supported by the delay of rubber tapping in Thailand, but the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory is increasing. In the long - term, if there is no major reversal in policies and tariffs, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff trends, rubber - tapping policies, and weather conditions [23][24] - **Urea**: Driven by export news, the urea price has risen and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, and the demand for fertilizers in the south and north will be released. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [25] - **Methanol**: After the holiday, the supply has increased and the demand has decreased. The downstream is cautious in purchasing. The supply is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin production, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [26] - **Plastic**: Affected by tariffs, the plastic price has dropped. The supply pressure is large due to new capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. Although there are some positive factors, the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash is firm, but the futures price has dropped slightly due to insufficient expected maintenance. The supply is still high, but the maintenance is expected to increase. The downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and to pay attention to short - term lows and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [28] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, the downstream consumption is weak, and the Sino - US trade friction has uncertainties. The cotton price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29] - **Apples**: The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [30] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and OPEC's production increase expectations, the cost of PTA has decreased. Although the supply - demand is good and the inventory is decreasing, the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4200 support level [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing and postponed, putting pressure on the pig price. However, the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions and short on rallies [33] - **Eggs**: After the May Day holiday, the demand has declined, and the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended for short - selling on rallies [35] - **Corn**: The supply of corn from the grassroots level has decreased, and the market is bullish. In the long - term, the new crop yield may decrease, and the import may continue to decline, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [35] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, due to tariff policies and weather factors, the cost will increase, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [37] - **Oils**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil is large, and the price of rapeseed oil is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion strategy of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [37][38][42]