汽车零部件的人形机器人时刻 20250515 摘要 • 汽车零部件行业经历了从电动化到智能化的演变，目前正处于人形机器人 驱动的第三阶段，相关零部件公司表现良好，主要集中在传统汽车零部件 领域。 • 当前宏观环境下的关税对汽车零部件行业影响较大，特别是对海外产能， 但从中长期来看，估值和业绩有缓和迹象，并存在进一步下降的潜力。 • 特斯拉供应链中的某核心供应商在机器人电驱系统领域表现突出，具备软 件监控、驱动、电机减速器及传感器等综合能力，项目从量产到单机价格 扩展均有良好进展。 • 英伦股份被定义为人形机器人的热管理专家，在 AI 服务器环节积累了丰富 经验，并顺利嵌入到人形机器人的热管理环节，在人形机器人管理方面取 得多项专利进展。 • 人形机器人市场前景广阔，目前处于大规模量产准备阶段，短期供应量有 限并不重要，应关注今年年底至明年以及未来两三年的持续提升。 • 保隆科技主要在传感器领域进行应用，并与国际头部企业 Kion Group 进 行合资或合作，拉动核心供应商参与，有助于提升其在人形机器人领域的 竞争力。 人形机器人市场前景如何？短期内有哪些需要关注的问题？ 人形机器人市场前景广阔，目前处于大规 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 26.6 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.02% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.001 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.728 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.00% increase [1] - In Q1 of this year, the company achieved a revenue of 5.768 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.39% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The automotive electronics business experienced rapid growth, with a tenfold increase exceeding 1.8 billion yuan, entering a phase of accelerated mass production [1][2] - In Q4, the company recorded a revenue of 7.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.63%, and a net profit of 767 million yuan, up 38.47% [1] Product Line Expansion - The company is focusing on developing nine product lines, including key products and core technologies in the robotics industry, alongside eight product lines for smart electric vehicles [2] - The thermal management module, featuring a self-developed high-precision electronic expansion valve, has established a benchmark in the industry [2] International Strategy and Production Capacity - The company has accelerated its international strategy, with factories in North America and Mexico fully operational, and plans for a second phase of projects underway [3] - The company is also planning and constructing a production base in Thailand to tap into the Southeast Asian market [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 34.128 billion yuan, 41.680 billion yuan, and 48.890 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.789 billion yuan, 4.710 billion yuan, and 5.589 billion yuan [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 2.18 yuan, 2.71 yuan, and 3.22 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 19, and 16 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a robust performance in 2024, with total revenue projected to increase by 35.0% year-on-year to 26.6 billion yuan and net profit expected to rise by 39.5% to 3.0 billion yuan [1][4]. - Short-term profitability may fluctuate due to a decline in sales from major clients and increased costs associated with new factories and business development, but the long-term growth potential in smart vehicles and robotics remains strong [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin is expected to decrease by 2.1 percentage points to 20.8%, while the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio is projected to decline by 1.1 percentage points to 8.0% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to show a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 20.4%, amounting to 5.7 billion yuan in net profit, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% [1][2]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics segment is experiencing high growth, with revenue expected to increase by 906% to 1.8 billion yuan. Other segments, including interior functional parts and chassis systems, are also showing steady growth [2]. - The robotics segment is beginning to contribute positively to profits, with the electric drive system achieving a gross margin of 50.9% in 2024 [2][3]. Global Expansion and Strategic Positioning - The company is accelerating its global footprint, with plans to add a third closed air suspension production line in 2025 and new factories in Mexico and Thailand set to commence operations in 2024 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The dual-platform strategy in smart vehicles and robotics is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, with significant client partnerships established with major automotive brands [3]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in net profit margin to 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [10]. - Key valuation metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 27 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 4.1, indicating a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [11].