Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has initiated a 30-day upward catalyst observation for Great Wall Motors (02333.HK) due to a 32% month-on-month increase in export sales to Russia in April, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 18.6 [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - Citigroup expects the growth momentum in exports to continue until June, improving overall profitability visibility [1] - The bank estimates that Great Wall Motors' core profit may rebound to RMB 3 billion in Q2, with total profit around RMB 4 billion when including one-off items [1] - An industry dealer survey indicates that sales of the Tank 300 and the Xiaolong MAX are gradually increasing, which will help the company enhance its domestic NEV market share [1] Group 2: Future Projections - If Q2 profits reach the bank's forecast of RMB 4 billion, profits could rebound to approximately RMB 13 billion by 2025 [1] - Recent stock performance of Great Wall Motors has been weak, but positive sales figures are expected to boost profit expectations and subsequently uplift the stock price [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices set at RMB 39.69 and HKD 21.31 respectively [8][13]. Core Views - The launch of the new Wei brand Gaoshan models, priced at RMB 309,800 and RMB 353,800, is expected to enhance market competitiveness due to improved features and a price advantage over competitors [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, with expectations of improved profitability as new models gain traction in the market [1][3]. - The Gaoshan models are equipped with advanced features such as a high-performance hybrid system and an intelligent cockpit, which are anticipated to attract a significant number of sales, potentially exceeding 5,000 units per month [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Launch and Features - The new Gaoshan models have a length of 5,280mm and 5,410mm, with the Gaoshan 8 being 235mm longer than its predecessor, aligning with mainstream market configurations [2]. - The new models feature a hybrid system with a fuel consumption rate of 7.15L per 100km and over 200km of pure electric range, enhancing their appeal for both commercial and family use [2][3]. Market Expansion - The company is set to open a factory in Brazil by mid-2025, which is expected to enhance its localization capabilities and strengthen its presence in the South American market [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 15.32 billion, RMB 18.57 billion, and RMB 20.13 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 36.15% in 2025 [7][18]. - The estimated PE ratios for A-shares and H-shares are 22x and 11x respectively for 2025, reflecting a competitive valuation in the market [5][13].

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 40.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.75 billion yuan, down 45.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The non-recurring net profit was 1.47 billion yuan, a decline of 27.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin stood at 4.4%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Sales Performance - The company sold 257,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with 91,000 units sold overseas [1][2] - Sales of new energy vehicles reached 63,000 units, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year [1] Product Cycle and Market Strategy - The company is entering a new product cycle with multiple new models set to launch starting in March 2025, which is expected to improve sales momentum [3] - The company plans to introduce new models under its five major brands, including Haval, Wey, Tank, Ora, and pickup trucks [3] - The introduction of affordable intelligent driving features in models priced below 200,000 yuan is anticipated to enhance market competitiveness [3] Profit Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 226.86 billion yuan, 256.58 billion yuan, and 283.78 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 13.1%, and 10.6% [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 13.64 billion yuan, 15.72 billion yuan, and 17.62 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 15.2%, and 12.1% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 14.5X, 12.6X, and 11.3X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 202.20 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.69 billion yuan, up 80.8% year-on-year [6][12]. - The company's sales volume increased by 0.2% to 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, with export sales rising by 43.4% to 453,100 units, accounting for 36.7% of total sales [6][10]. - The introduction of advanced intelligent driving features is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and drive sales growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.94 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year and 17.9% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The average revenue per vehicle increased by 16.5% to 163,900 yuan, with export vehicle average revenue rising by 4.9% to 182,800 yuan [6][10]. - The adjusted gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 19.5%, driven by a higher proportion of sales from premium brands [6][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 255.46 billion yuan, 290.27 billion yuan, and 322.72 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 15.00 billion yuan, 16.92 billion yuan, and 18.73 billion yuan for the same years [8][12]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.75 yuan, 1.98 yuan, and 2.19 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12].