Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract significantly reducing positions and the 9 - 1 spread also falling. The inventory depletion rate slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream purchasing for rigid demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In the 25/26 crushing season, the estimated sugarcane yield per hectare in central - southern Brazil decreased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, most international consulting firms still expect the sugar production in central - southern Brazil to exceed 40 million tons due to a high sugar - making ratio. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increased production this year, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a fast sales pace. The upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but were affected by high - temperature weather, resulting in poor coloring and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. Last week, the cold - storage apple removal volume was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. There are still differences in production estimates. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined, and the sentiment in the rubber market continued to weaken. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were generally stable. Globally, the natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, and some plants have maintenance plans. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The demand from the tire market was average, and the inventory of finished tires increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Pulp continued to decline. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot prices remained stable. The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily log outbound volume from 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [8]