填运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਦੇ ਹੋ EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1653.1 | 涨跌 -0.12% | 基差 -144.0 | 昨日成交量 241 | | 昨日持仓量 3031 | 持仓变动 -138 | | | EC2602 | | 1689.0 | 1.43% | -179.9 | 18659 | | 31623 | 241 | | | EC2604 | | 1092.7 | 1.11% | 416.4 | 2137 | | 19277 | ਦਿੱਤ | | | EC2606 | | 1227.0 | 0.11% | 282.1 | 159 | | 2296 | 22 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1381.8 | 0.21% | 127.3 | 80 | | 1551 | 2 | | | EC2610 | | 1021.6 | -0.33% | 487.5 | 259 | | 4291 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current EC is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to the expectation of spot price cuts, geopolitical relaxation, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, the market sentiment may be weak. Considering the remaining expectations of the subsequent peak season and long - term contract signing season, opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 on dips can be focused on [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 with a 0.74% increase, a basis of - 97.6, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a decrease of 2204. For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 with a 0.54% decrease, a basis of - 530.7, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with an increase of 715. For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 with a 1.64% increase, a basis of - 328.1, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a decrease of 392. For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 with a 2.76% increase, a basis of - 66.7, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a decrease of 133. For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 with a 1.55% increase, a basis of - 236.2, and an open interest of 1483 with a decrease of 33 [2][16] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 433.1, with a daily increase of 16.8 and a weekly increase of 188.2. The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 202.6, with a daily decrease of 30.4 and a weekly increase of 113.5 [2][16] Spot Market - The现货 price of ડેલનીટ on October 13, 2025, was 1031.8, with a 1.40% decrease from the previous period and a 6.60% decrease in the last period. The SCFI was 1068 dollars/TEU on October 10, 2025, with a 9.99% increase from the previous period. The CCFI was 1287.15 points on October 10, 2025, with an 8.19% decrease from the previous period. The NCFI was 698.67 points on October 10, 2025, with an 11.39% increase from the previous period [2][16] Recent European Line Quotations - From Week 40 - 41, the two - week joint cabin release had an average quote of 1450 dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the disk), with YML at 1300 dollars (the lowest price of the year) and OA at 1400 - 1600 dollars. In Week 42, the price was announced to rise to 1800 - 2000 dollars, and the booking window had not arrived, so the quotes were not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted 1200 dollars in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarders still quoted 1500 - 1600 dollars. In November, MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the disk [3][17] Related News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli hostages. On October 14, the Gaza cease - fire agreement was signed in Egypt. The "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh was hosted by the Egyptian President and the US President, but the Israeli Prime Minister cancelled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [4][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are still falling, but the decline is expected to slow down and gradually bottom out in October. Week 39 spot price was 1600 USD (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). The WSK's opening quotation for the first week of October (Week 40) was 1400 USD, with a weekly decline of -150, more aggressive than market expectations. OOCL and YML also lowered their prices [2]. - On Tuesday, the far - month futures market rose significantly, driven by expectations of a slowdown in decline and approaching the bottom, as well as sentiment from Sino - US trade negotiations and the China - Europe Railway Express. However, it declined at the end of the session due to the MSK's 1400 opening quotation. The basis of the October contract was -10 points, almost at par with the spot price. The October - December spread was -504.1 (-11), and the December contract's valuation was relatively neutral and slightly high. There are multiple upward drivers in the future, so the December contract is cautiously bullish, with a neutral valuation and mainly driven by trading factors. The settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be high as the Spring Festival in 2026 is late (February 17, 2026), and its current valuation is low. The long - position allocation of the February contract has a higher cost - performance than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - February and short - April spread trade can be arranged [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1169.7 with a 0.57% increase, EC2512 at 1673.8 with a 1.06% increase, EC2602 at 1572.1 with a 3.64% increase, EC2604 at 1283.7 with a 2.38% increase, and EC2606 at 1471.6 with a 2.77% increase. The October - December spread was -504.1 (-11), and the December - February 2026 spread was 101.7 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Price Index Changes**: The spot price index of the European line (including TELLAT, SCFI, CCFI, NCFI) has been declining. For example, the TELLAT index on September 15, 2025, was 1440.24, down 8.06% from the previous period and 12.24% from two periods ago [2]. Shipping Company Quotes - **Recent European Line Quotes**: In Week 38, the average quote was 1800 USD (equivalent to 1260 points on the futures market); in Week 39, it was 1600 USD (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market); in Week 40, MSK opened at 1400 USD, OOCL lowered to 1500 - 1550 USD, and YML lowered to 1400 USD [2][4]. Market News - **Geopolitical and Trade News**: The Israeli military expanded its ground military operation in Gaza City on September 17. The US Department of Commerce is considering imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream is currently booking shipping space for late August to early September (week 35 - 36). Week 35 has a potential average of $2550 (1800 points), and week 36's current average quote is $2300 (1600 points). MSK has relatively less pressure to receive goods due to significant price cuts, but most shipping companies face pressure to receive goods at the end of the month. September's overall shipping capacity is generally reduced, but on August 26, two sailings on the FE3/FE4 routes of the PA alliance in week 37/38 of September were refilled, increasing the average weekly shipping capacity in September to 310,000 TEU. The overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation in October is gradually approaching the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside potential. Attention can be paid to the long - allocation opportunity of the 12 - contract [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - EC2508 closed at 2136.0 with a 0.39% increase, EC2510 at 1358.0 with a 3.74% increase, EC2512 at 1696.7 with a 2.14% increase, EC2602 at 1496.9 with a 2.18% increase, EC2604 at 1284.0 with a 1.54% increase, and EC2606 at 1445.7 with a 1.10% increase. The positions of EC2508 decreased by 91, EC2510 increased by 102, EC2512 increased by 220, EC2602 remained unchanged, EC2604 decreased by 33, and EC2606 decreased by 22 [1] - The month - to - month spreads: EC2508 - 2510 was 778.0, with a daily decrease of 40.7 and a weekly increase of 21.0; EC2510 - 2512 was - 338.7, with a daily increase of 13.5 and a weekly increase of 66.0; EC2512 - 2602 was 199.8, with a daily increase of 3.6 and a weekly decrease of 39.8 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Information - The spot price of Telanat (European line) on August 25, 2025, was 1990.2 points, a decrease of 8.71% from the previous period and 2.47% from the period before the previous one. SCFI was $1668/TEU on August 22, 2025, a decrease of 7.9% from the previous period. CCFI was 1757.74 points on August 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous period. NCFI was 1083.74 points on August 22, 2025, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period [1] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation - In week 35, the potential average is $2575 (1770 points), with the PA alliance at $2500, MSK opening at $2300 (later rising to $2490), and the OA alliance at $2700 - $2800. In week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2120 - $2420, with an average of $2250 (1550 points). The PA alliance is at $2200 - $2300, MSK at $2100 (later rising to $2200), and the OA alliance at $2300 - $2400 [2] 3.4 Related News - On August 23, US President Trump announced a major tariff investigation on imported furniture into the US, which will be completed within the next 50 days. The tariff rate is to be determined. On August 26, Trump said dealing with Netanyahu was quite difficult and expected a clear and good outcome in the next 2 - 3 weeks [3]