11月18日，美国总统特朗普在白宫与到访的沙特王储穆罕默德举行会晤，这是后者时隔7年再次访美。 特朗普开启第二个总统任期后，首次出访的第一站就是沙特，此次穆罕默德访美也可被视为沙特高层对 特朗普访沙的回访。 沙特在特朗普政府的中东战略中始终扮演着重要角色。8年前，特朗普首次就任总统后就打破惯例，将 沙特作为其首次出访的第一站。2018年3月，沙特王储穆罕默德访美。不过，美沙关系并未高开高走， 同年10月发生的沙特籍记者卡舒吉遇害案，给美沙关系蒙上一层阴影。 尽管特朗普力挺穆罕默德，但美国政府的调查报告仍将幕后主使指向沙特王储，美国国会也以人权为由 对沙特发难。这桩旧事如今仍是美沙关系的羁绊，穆罕默德与特朗普在白宫会晤之际，现场就有记者就 卡舒吉案向这位沙特领导人提问，特朗普不得不直接出面打圆场。 此次邀请沙特王储访美，特朗普的战略意图与七八年前并无二致，但他面对的中东地缘政治环境依然迥 异，因而需要给予沙特更多"回报"。比如，宣布将向沙特出售F-35战斗机，且是与以色列现役F-35一样 的先进机型，而非低配版。这款战机可以说是沙特梦寐以求的高端武器装备，此前中东地区只有以色列 拥有，这意味着美国向沙特出口F- ...

Group 1 - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed is expected to visit the U.S. in mid-November, marking his first visit in seven years, amidst a significantly changed geopolitical environment between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. [1] - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has opened the possibility for the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which had been stalled due to the ongoing conflict [1][2] - Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains fragile, with ongoing Israeli airstrikes and the second phase of the ceasefire still pending [1] Group 2 - The Biden administration had previously attempted to facilitate Saudi-Israeli normalization through defense cooperation and civilian nuclear plans, but the recent Gaza conflict has interrupted these efforts [2] - Trump’s administration had positioned Saudi Arabia as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with significant investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, although actual transactions were lower than reported [2][3] - The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 cast a shadow over U.S.-Saudi relations, leading to criticism from the U.S. Congress and a halt in arms sales [3] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has evolved since the Crown Prince's last visit, with improved relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran [3] - Ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon remain volatile, with the potential for regional spillover effects from localized conflicts [3] - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Hamas targets in Qatar have prompted strong reactions from Arab nations, leading to calls for a reassessment of diplomatic relations with Israel [3][4] Group 4 - Following a recent emergency summit, Saudi Arabia signed a strategic defense agreement with Pakistan, indicating a shift towards strengthening regional alliances in response to perceived threats [4] - The agreement includes provisions for mutual defense, highlighting the growing military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan [4] - The U.S.'s perceived inaction during regional conflicts has led Saudi Arabia to seek alternative partnerships, diminishing U.S. influence in the region [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. On Thursday, the market declined due to shipping companies' push for price cuts at the end of October. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the price increase announcements in the first half of November are expected to have poor implementation. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. Currently, the valuation of the December contract is high, and long - positions are back in a driver - dominated period. Geopolitics has a large impact on 2026 contracts [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1100.9 with a - 1.76% change, EC2512 at 1651.1 with a - 3.37% change, EC2602 at 1429.2 with a - 2.34% change, EC2604 at 1119.9 with a - 1.94% change, and EC2606 at 1281.2 with a - 1.94% change [2][27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2461, 27124, 5516, 3388, and 302 respectively. The open interests were 10060, 25798, 20, 13858, and 1547 respectively, with changes of - 1275, - 1225, - 463, 233, and 37 [2][27]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 550.2, with a month - on - month increase of 37.8 and a week - on - week decrease of - 100.3. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 221.9, with a month - on - month decrease of - 23.3 and a week - on - week decrease of - 11.1 [2][27]. 3.2 Shipping Index Data - **SCFI**: As of 2025/10/13, it was 1031.80 points, a - 1.40% change from the previous period. In terms of dollars/TEU, it was 1068, a 9.99% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **CCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 1287.15 points, a - 8.19% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **NCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 698.67 points, an 11.39% change from the previous period [2][27]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - Week40 - 41: The average quotation was about 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - Week42: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars. Offline, OA quoted 1800, PA 1400, and GEMINI about 1600 US dollars, with an estimated average of 1560 US dollars (equivalent to 1100 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - November price - increase announcements: MSK, CMA, OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo collection of many shipping companies in week 43 and high shipping capacity in week 44 (330,000 TEU), the expected price increases are difficult to implement [3][28]. 3.4 Related News - On October 17, US President Trump stated that if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, the US will have no choice but to enter and eliminate them. Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiation of the Gaza cease - fire [4][29].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and is highly volatile under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies [2][17]. - On Wednesday, the futures market fluctuated upwards under the influence of local news, shipping company price hikes, and capital position transfers. YML released a Week 44 spot price quote of $1550 [2][17]. - The downstream is currently booking space for late October. OA quotes $1800, PA quotes $1500, and GEMINI quotes around $1600, with an optimistic average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Week 43 OA had good cargo intake, while PA and GEMINI alliances had average intake, with a possibility of further price drops (more offline) [2][17]. - The settlement price of the 10 - contract is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. Given the tight shipping capacity in Week 44, the price hikes announced for the first half of November are expected to be difficult to implement. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple future price - hike nodes. Currently, the valuation of the 12 - contract is high, and the long - position trading has returned to a driver - based period. Geopolitics has a significant impact on 2026 contracts [2][17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1120.6, down 1.37%, with a basis of - 88.8, a trading volume of 3412, an open interest of 11335, and an open - interest change of - 1820 [2][17]. - EC2512: The price was 1708.6, up 2.06%, with a basis of - 676.8, a trading volume of 42616, an open interest of 27023, and an open - interest change of - 168 [2][17]. - EC2602: The price was 1463.4, down 0.07%, with a basis of - 431.6, a trading volume of 8209, an open interest of 9822, and an open - interest change of 112 [2][17]. - EC2604: The price was 1142.0, with a basis of - 110.2, and a trading volume of 4498, an open interest of 13676 [2][17]. - EC2606: The price was 1306.6, down 0.93%, with a basis of - 274.8, a trading volume of 385, an open interest of 1510, and an open - interest change of - 31 [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 588.0, compared to - 537.9 the previous day and - 433.1 the day before that, with a daily change of - 50.1 and a weekly change of - 19.9 [2][17]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 245.2, compared to 209.7 the previous day and 202.6 the day before that, with a daily change of 35.5 and a weekly change of - 36.8 [2][17]. Index Data - SCEIS: Updated every Monday, announced on 2025/10/13, at 1031.80 points, down 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from the period before that [2][17]. - SCEI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at $1068 per TEU, up 9.99% from the previous period and unchanged from the period before that [2][17]. - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at 1287.15 points, down 8.19% from the previous period and unchanged from the period before that [2][17]. - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from the period before that [2][17]. News and Events - Shipping companies MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price hikes to around $2500 in November, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo intake of many shipping companies in Week 43 and tight shipping capacity in Week 44 (330,000 TEU), these price hikes are expected to be difficult to implement [2][17]. - On October 15, negotiations on the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza were launched. The key points of the US government's "20 - point plan" include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of an international stabilization force, and the formation of a Palestinian independent technical bureaucracy committee. Hamas insists on Israel ending the occupation and Palestinian state - building as a prerequisite for complete disarmament, and the Israeli government currently only agrees to the first - stage agreement, suggesting that subsequent negotiations will not be smooth [2][17]. - On October 15, the Israeli government expected Hamas to return all hostages, decided to open the Rafah crossing, and the Israeli Defense Minister ordered the military to formulate a comprehensive plan to "crush Hamas" if the Gaza conflict resumes [2][17]. - Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume action at his order without US military intervention [3][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. The measure of China's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. is expected to have little impact on the European line. With average cargo collection in Week43 and high shipping capacity in Week44, the price increase declaration in early November is expected to have poor implementation, but there are still upward drivers in subsequent price increase declaration nodes. The valuation of the December contract is neutral, and the long - position trading has returned to a period driven by fundamentals. Geopolitical factors have a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Prices and Changes**: For EC2510, the closing price was 1136.2, with a 0.60% increase; EC2512 closed at 1674.1, up 7.14%; EC2602 at 1464.4, up 7.68%; EC2604 at 1150.0, up 4.69%; EC2606 at 1318.8, up 4.01% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 537.9, with a month - on - month change of - 104.8 and a week - on - week change of 83.4; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 209.7, with a month - on - month change of 7.1 and a week - on - week change of 120.6 [2]. Spot Freight Index - **SCHIS**: Updated every Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.80 points, down 1.40% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1068 US dollars/TEU, up 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, down 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period [2]. European Line Quotation - **Week40 - 41**: The average quotation was 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3]. - **Week42**: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars, and the overall average was 1600 US dollars (1120 points) [3]. - **November Price Increase Declaration**: MSK, CMA, OOCL declared a price increase to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market, but it is difficult to implement due to average cargo collection in Week43 and high shipping capacity in Week44 (330,000 TEU) [3]. News - On October 14, Israeli drones attacked an eastern community in Gaza City, resulting in 3 Palestinian deaths [4]. - On October 15, the negotiation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza was launched. The key points of the negotiation include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of Hamas, but there are still differences between the two sides [4].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: "集运星报" [1] - **Report Date**: October 14, 2025 [2] - **Research Team**: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current situation is characterized by a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with significant fluctuations influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to spot price reduction expectations, geopolitical easing, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, market sentiment may be weak. However, considering the expected peak season and long - term contract signing season, there may be opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 at low prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **EC2510**: Closed at 1129.4 yesterday, with a change of 0.74%, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a change of - 2204 [2]. - **EC2512**: Closed at 1562.5, with a change of - 0.54%, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with a change of 715 [2]. - **EC2602**: Closed at 1359.9, with a change of 1.64%, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a change of - 392 [2]. - **EC2604**: Closed at 1098.5, with a change of 2.76%, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a change of - 133 [2]. - **EC2606**: Closed at 1268.0, with a change of 1.55%, trading volume of 283, and an open interest of 1483 with a change of - 33 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 433.1, with a daily change of 16.8 and a weekly change of 188.2 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 202.6, with a daily change of - 30.4 and a weekly change of 113.5 [2]. Spot Market Indicators - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly on Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.8 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was $1068/TEU, an increase of 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, a decrease of 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, an increase of 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - **Week 40 - 41**: Two - week joint cabin release. The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted $1400; PA quoted between $1300 - 1500; YML's $1300 was the lowest price of the year; OA quoted between $1400 - 1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: The price was announced to increase to $1800 - 2000. As of the weekend, it was not the booking window, and the quotation was not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted $1200 in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarder still quoted between $1500 - 1600 [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcement**: MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around $2500, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market [2]. News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli detainees. On October 14, a cease - fire agreement for Gaza was signed in Egypt. The Sharm El - Sheikh "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu canceled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current EC is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to the expectation of spot price cuts, geopolitical relaxation, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, the market sentiment may be weak. Considering the remaining expectations of the subsequent peak season and long - term contract signing season, opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 on dips can be focused on [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 with a 0.74% increase, a basis of - 97.6, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a decrease of 2204. For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 with a 0.54% decrease, a basis of - 530.7, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with an increase of 715. For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 with a 1.64% increase, a basis of - 328.1, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a decrease of 392. For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 with a 2.76% increase, a basis of - 66.7, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a decrease of 133. For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 with a 1.55% increase, a basis of - 236.2, and an open interest of 1483 with a decrease of 33 [2][16] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 433.1, with a daily increase of 16.8 and a weekly increase of 188.2. The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 202.6, with a daily decrease of 30.4 and a weekly increase of 113.5 [2][16] Spot Market - The现货 price of ડેલનીટ on October 13, 2025, was 1031.8, with a 1.40% decrease from the previous period and a 6.60% decrease in the last period. The SCFI was 1068 dollars/TEU on October 10, 2025, with a 9.99% increase from the previous period. The CCFI was 1287.15 points on October 10, 2025, with an 8.19% decrease from the previous period. The NCFI was 698.67 points on October 10, 2025, with an 11.39% increase from the previous period [2][16] Recent European Line Quotations - From Week 40 - 41, the two - week joint cabin release had an average quote of 1450 dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the disk), with YML at 1300 dollars (the lowest price of the year) and OA at 1400 - 1600 dollars. In Week 42, the price was announced to rise to 1800 - 2000 dollars, and the booking window had not arrived, so the quotes were not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted 1200 dollars in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarders still quoted 1500 - 1600 dollars. In November, MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the disk [3][17] Related News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli hostages. On October 14, the Gaza cease - fire agreement was signed in Egypt. The "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh was hosted by the Egyptian President and the US President, but the Israeli Prime Minister cancelled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [4][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli military's airstrike on Hamas leaders in Qatar marks a significant escalation in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, raising concerns about the implications for U.S. alliances and regional stability [1][2][11]. Group 1: Israeli Military Actions - The Israeli military conducted a precision strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, which is the first time Israel has extended its military operations to a U.S. ally [1]. - The targets included members of the Hamas negotiating team who were discussing a U.S. ceasefire proposal, indicating a direct challenge to ongoing diplomatic efforts [2]. - Israeli officials stated that the Hamas leaders targeted were directly responsible for planning attacks against Israel, emphasizing a strategic goal of eliminating Hamas's military and political presence [4][5]. Group 2: International Reactions - Qatar's Prime Minister condemned the Israeli actions as "state terrorism," calling for a regional response to what he described as barbaric behavior [6]. - The United Nations and various countries condemned the airstrike, asserting that it violated international law and undermined peace efforts in the region [8]. - Analysts noted that the attack on a diplomatic mediator like Qatar could severely disrupt ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire, setting a dangerous precedent [8][10]. Group 3: U.S. Involvement and Implications - The role of the U.S. in the Israeli airstrike has come under scrutiny, with reports suggesting that the attack may have had tacit approval from U.S. officials [11][13]. - The incident raises questions about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees for its allies in the region, as even close partners like Qatar are not immune to Israeli military actions [11][13]. - Experts suggest that this event could lead Gulf states to reassess their security strategies, given the perceived limitations of U.S. support [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation with a strong bias, cautious long [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term increased volatility, cautious wait - and - see [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views - Overseas, the weakening of the US dollar index and the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have led to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, the strong consumption growth in May and the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish Fed statements have supported domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, Fed Chair Powell is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran has reduced global risk aversion, weakening the US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in May is stable, with strong consumption but slowdown in investment and industrial production, which helps boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Equity Index**: Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continues to rise. With strong consumption, stable economic growth, and supportive factors, short - term cautious long. Focus on geopolitical risks, trade negotiations, and domestic policies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Powell's statement and the Fed's stance have affected the market. The deterioration of US consumer confidence and the easing of the Middle East conflict have put short - term pressure on precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices have affected the market. Although demand is not significantly deteriorated and inventory is falling, supply is increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. With the recovery of pig iron production and steel mill replenishment, and the increase in supply and inventory, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline in the medium term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, prices were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay in the short term. The production in Yunnan may increase, and the overall alloy production has little change. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline if oil prices fall [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Glass**: On Tuesday, glass prices oscillated strongly. Supply is stable at a low level, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate industry, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Fed officials' dovish statements have an impact. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has affected imports. Wait for the right time to short. Pay attention to trade negotiations and tariff policies [10]. - **Aluminum**: The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a decline in aluminum prices. There is significant inventory accumulation, and demand may weaken in the future [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, demand is weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by various factors [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weighted contract rebounded, but there are unverified market rumors. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices are affected by coal prices. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [13]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply is at a low level with limited further decline, and demand is weak. If the photovoltaic industry increases production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's stance on the cease - fire and oil exports has affected the market. The market will focus on potential supply surplus later this year, and oil prices will remain weakly oscillating [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil price decline has led to a fall in asphalt prices. Although inventory is being depleted, the price increase is limited. It will follow the high - level fluctuation of crude oil in the short term [14][15]. - **PX**: Crude oil decline has led to a decline in PX prices, but the downward space may be limited. Demand is increasing, and the tight supply pattern will continue. It will follow the weak oscillation of crude oil [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains stable, but the decline in crude oil may lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester inventory, there may be production cuts in the future [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of supply - side impacts will continue to suppress prices, with short - term increased volatility [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Crude oil price decline will lead to a decline in short - fiber prices. It will follow the polyester sector and oscillate strongly. Wait for the peak - season demand to deplete inventory [16]. - **Methanol**: The price has declined, but due to potential supply shortages and improved profits, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. - **PP**: The futures price has declined. With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to fall. Pay attention to the development of the conflict [17]. - **LLDPE**: The price has adjusted. With stable supply and demand and the decline in oil prices, the price is expected to continue to weaken with increased short - term volatility [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans declined, affected by soybean oil and crude oil. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for crop growth [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The high - level operation of oil mills has made the supply - demand of soybean meal gradually loose. The market sentiment is weak, and the basis is expected to remain unchanged [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Not enough information provided in the given text. - **Live Hogs**: The expected high - point of pig prices from August to September may not be high, and there will be selling pressure on the LH09 contract [20].