1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillation [1] - Soybean Meal: Up [1] - Oils and Fats: Up [1] - Eggs: Oscillation [2] - Pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to ferment, with the rise in crude oil prices providing bullish support to the commodity market. The macro - bullish factors and the large supply of wheat in the fundamental situation create a mixed situation, causing the corn futures price to oscillate. The supply - demand fundamentals of the corn market have no significant changes, and attention should be paid to the subsequent policy - grain auctions [1]. - The CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, supported by the strengthening of crude oil prices and the impact on fertilizer supply. The domestic protein meal oscillates. The decline in pig prices and the increase in losses reduce the enthusiasm for feed input, which is not conducive to the demand outlook of protein meal. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - The BMD palm oil rose on Thursday, ending a two - day decline. The domestic oils and fats oscillate, with palm oil performing weaker than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot market is sluggish, and high prices suppress demand. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the sentiment of commodities. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1][2]. - The egg futures price declined on Thursday. The short - term egg prices in the production areas may be mostly stable with a slight increase. Feed raw materials strengthen, providing some support to the egg spot price. Attention should be paid to the supply - side data and the impact of surrounding commodity prices on egg prices [2]. - The pig futures price continued to decline on Thursday. The demand support is insufficient, and most farmers have a strong willingness to sell. The pig price is in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices on pig prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The Israeli military action against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining to be attacked [3]. - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [3]. - In 2026, China will strengthen bottom - line thinking, closely monitor changes in the international financial market and internal and external environments, and strengthen the joint monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 17,187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons. The number of ships at ports was 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - The rebound in iron ore prices at the end of February was mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking support from supply - demand fundamentals [3]. - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve (nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers) to meet the fertilizer demand during the spring plowing [4]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, energy prices such as oil and natural gas soared, and the international fertilizer supply chain was significantly impacted. The price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased by more than 20% compared to before the attack on February 28 [4]. - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels. The Natural Resources Department of the Kurdish region refuses to resume oil exports [4]. - Due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain Aluminium has started a phased shutdown to reserve raw materials [4]. - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons compared to March 5 [4][5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][19][22][26] 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013 and the top ten R & D teams in 2019, and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and won the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of precious metals is weak today. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed down 0.79%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed down 2.37%, Platinum's main contract closed down 1.18%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 1.73% [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Iran rejected the proposal to de - escalate the conflict, and Israel claimed to have killed an Iranian security official. The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, and the world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation. The market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the latest US consumer spending has grown steadily, and the Iranian situation will intensify inflation pressure. The unexpected decrease in US employment and the rise in the unemployment rate in February challenge the Fed's view that the labor market is stabilizing. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of an interest rate hike is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's rate - cutting cycle is nearing its end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure at high levels [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risk of global recession, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating weakly in the short term, oscillating at a low level in the medium term, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2] - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5011.30 per ounce, down $187.40 (-3.60%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $5016.80 per ounce, up $21.95 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $192.90 (-3.70%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1113.52 yuan per gram, down 2.68 yuan (-0.24%) from the previous day and down 38.46 yuan (-3.34%) from the previous week [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1381 lots; SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons (-0.27%) [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4] - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $79.46 per ounce, down $1.54 (-1.90%) from the previous day and down $9.11 (-10.29%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $80.22 per ounce, up $1.27 (1.61%) from the previous day and down $8.31 (-9.39%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 19980 yuan per kilogram, down 328 yuan (-1.62%) from the previous day and down 2276 yuan (-10.23%) from the previous week [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2407 lots; iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 149.31 tons (-0.96%) [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6] - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20 per ounce, up $88.70 (4.38%) from the previous day and down $76.00 (-3.47%) from the previous week; London platinum closed at $2118.00 per ounce, up $41.00 (1.97%) from the previous day and down $14.00 (-0.66%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 552.70 yuan per gram, up 19.90 yuan (3.73%) from the previous day and down 9.85 yuan (-1.75%) from the previous week [6] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2633 lots [6] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day and down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week; London palladium closed at $1601.00 per ounce, down $49.00 (-3.04%) from the previous day and down $49.00 (-2.97%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 407.75 yuan per gram, up 9.20 yuan (2.31%) from the previous day and down 15.80 yuan (-3.73%) from the previous week [7] - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained at - 362 lots [7] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8] - US economic data: GDP (annualized YoY): 2.10%, down 0.30% from the previous value; unemployment rate: 4.40%, up 0.10% from the previous value; non - farm payrolls monthly change: - 9.20 million, down 2.18% from the previous value [8][10] - Other data: Geopolitical risk index: 248.83, down 46.73 (-15.81%) from the previous week; VIX index: 22.37, down 1.14 (-4.85%) from the previous day and down 2.56 (-10.27%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index: 364.40, up 4.68 (1.30%) from the previous day and up 9.43 (2.66%) from the previous week [10] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points on March 18, 2026, is 99.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in the future [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened low and closed down nearly 4%. The current fundamental situation is weak, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile and weak. However, due to frequent geopolitical news in the Middle East, cautious operation is recommended [1]. - The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with a significant increase in the operating load by 20%. After the holiday, the inventory of coking coal mines increased by 286,000 tons, while independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce their inventory, with steel mills reducing 168,200 tons and independent coking enterprises reducing about 494,100 tons [1]. - The operating load of steel mills has declined, and the resumption of production after the holiday has fallen short of expectations. The current operating rate is 77.71%. Steel mills are mainly focused on digesting their own inventory, resulting in a low overall demand for upstream products. One round of price cuts has been implemented, and a second round is expected [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and trended down, closing with a nearly 4% decline. The market's reaction to the possible cease - fire in the war led to a significant decline in the energy and chemical sector, and coking coal also declined synchronously [1]. Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal is 1,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - The closing price of the futures main contract is 1,121.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Shanxi Jiexiu is 128.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply data: From February 27th to March 5th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4]. - Demand data: From March 1st to March 5th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile rebound. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.80%, the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 7.11%, the main contract of platinum closed up 4.26%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 4.02% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk of the trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is weakening while inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment unexpectedly decreased in February and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes showed that there are huge differences among decision - makers on the future direction of interest rates. In addition to the interest - rate - cut supporters and the wait - and - see group, the minutes for the first time clearly mentioned the discussion of the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are approaching the end, and the next interest rate cut may be in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium still has resilience, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. It is advisable to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract is $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from the previous week; the London gold price is $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 1139.96 yuan per gram, up 0.13% from the previous day and down 4.96% from the previous week [2]. - **Other Data**: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Gold Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 93,020, an increase of 5,115, with a daily ratio of 31.26%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 9,388, a decrease of 218, with a daily ratio of 3.15% [2][3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors should sell high and buy low. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract is $87.35 per ounce, up 3.13% from the previous day and down 2.53% from the previous week; the London silver price is $83.45 per ounce, up 1.34% from the previous day and down 11.81% from the previous week; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 22,758 yuan per kilogram, up 5.62% from the previous day and up 5.14% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 22,290 yuan per kilogram, up 4.70% from the previous day and up 4.03% from the previous week [4]. - **Other Data**: The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in the Shanghai Silver Exchange shows that the total net long position of the top 10 is 91,191, a decrease of 483, with a daily ratio of 18.53%; the total net short position of the top 10 is 108,137, a decrease of 2,122, with a daily ratio of 21.98% [4][5]. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract is $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from the previous week; the London platinum price is $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from the previous week; the closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from the previous week; the closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from the previous week [6]. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors sell high and buy low. Manage positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract is $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from the previous week; the London palladium price is $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from the previous week; the closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from the previous week [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **US Economic Indicators**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, the Fed's total assets are $6679.427 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.44, the US dollar index is 98.71, etc. [8]. - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.40%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, etc. [8]. - **Other Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index is 597.47, the VIX index is 25.50, the CRB commodity index is 356.89, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9243 [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range from March 2026 to December 2027 according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.08%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.70%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.43%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.18%. The short - term safe - haven situation indicates that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US employment unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mention discussions about the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly [1]. - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from last week; London gold was at $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from last week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 918 lots; the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 1.73% from last week [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $84.70 per ounce, up 2.64% from the previous day and down 10.27% from last week; London silver was at $82.34 per ounce, down 2.23% from the previous day and down 8.49% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 21547 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07% from the previous day and down 11.80% from last week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 667 lots; the iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.88% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum was at $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; the main platinum contract on the GZFE closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium was at $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week; the main palladium contract on the GZFE closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up 0.00% from last week [8]. - US economic data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.50%, up 0.10 percentage points; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls decreased by 9.20 million, down 2.18 million from last month [8][10]. - Inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.50%, down 0.10 percentage points; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.08 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 3.00%, up 0.17 percentage points [8]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points in March 2026 is 95.3%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest rate ranges gradually increases [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.89%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.38%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.20%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 1.79% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical changes in the Middle East may become normalized. The U.S. employment is strong, inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the U.S. dollar index is strong [1]. - The air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, affecting the shipping, aviation, and oil industries. The world is facing the threat of rising energy costs and受阻 business activities in the Gulf region, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - The U.S. labor market remains stable, and the labor productivity in the fourth quarter is still strong. The Fed's latest Beige Book report shows that the U.S. economic activity has slightly picked up recently, prices continue to rise, and the employment level remains stable. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned [1]. - The market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing the end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - International prices: Comex gold active contract closed at $5151.60 per ounce, up 1.02% from the previous day and down 0.62% from last week; London gold closed at $5148.55 per ounce, up 2.28% from the previous day and down 0.83% from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1140.80 yuan per gram, down 0.97% from the previous day and down 0.62% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1138.46 yuan per gram, down 0.88% from the previous day and down 0.35% from last week [2]. - Positions and inventories: Comex gold positions increased by 3.90% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased by 24.18% from last week; Gold TD positions increased by 0.40% from last week. LBMA inventory remained unchanged, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.48% from last week, and Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - International prices: Comex silver active contract closed at $82.52 per ounce, down 1.49% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week; London silver closed at $84.22 per ounce, down 2.96% from the previous day and down 2.56% from last week [4]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 21639.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.98% from the previous day and down 4.13% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21068.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.29% from the previous day and down 2.46% from last week [4]. - Positions and inventories: Comex silver positions remained unchanged from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased by 2.15% from the previous day and decreased by 0.04% from last week; Silver TD positions decreased by 3.52% from last week. LBMA inventory decreased by 0.32% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 2.50% from last week, and Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 16.52% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - International prices: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from last week [6]. - Positions and inventories: NYMEX platinum active contract positions decreased by 1.43% from the previous day and decreased by 0.93% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory decreased by 0.89% from last week [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - International prices: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Positions and inventories: NYMEX palladium active contract positions decreased by 24.12% from the previous day and decreased by 57.68% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory decreased by 0.32% from last week [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Fed's total assets: $66794.27 billion, up $150.57 billion from the previous value [8]. - M2 (year - on - year): 4.29%, up 0.36% from the previous value [8]. - Ten - year U.S. Treasury real yield: 2.43, up 1.67% from the previous day and up 3.40% from last week [8]. - U.S. dollar index: 98.80, down 0.48% from the previous day and up 1.03% from last week [8]. - Other economic data such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are also provided in detail [8][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2026/3/18 to 2027/12/8 is presented in a table [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 3.10%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 4.43%, the main contract of platinum closed down 4.55%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.78%. [1] - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflationary pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the US dollar index is strong. [1] - The air strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, affecting industries such as shipping, aviation, and oil. The world faces the threat of rising energy costs and an increased risk of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may become long - term. [1] - In January, US producer prices accelerated, and enterprises raised prices to transfer tariff costs. The minutes of the Fed's January meeting showed that there were significant differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mentioned the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts within the year, and the next rate cut may be in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly. [1] - The geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend. [1] Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - International prices: The closing price of the active Comex gold contract was $5099.50 per ounce, down $236.40 (-4.43%) from the previous day and down $61.00 (-1.18%) from the previous week. The price of London gold was $5033.65 per ounce, down $280.25 (-5.27%) from the previous day and down $86.60 (-1.69%) from the previous week. [2] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1153.06 yuan per gram, down 28.94 yuan (-2.45%) from the previous day and up 2.00 yuan (0.17%) from the previous week. The closing price of Gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1152.95 yuan per gram, down 28.61 yuan (-2.42%) from the previous day and up 7.88 yuan (0.69%) from the previous week. [2] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 3880 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 18.58 tons (1.73%). [2] Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [3] - International prices: The closing price of the active Comex silver contract was $82.30 per ounce, down $7.31 (-8.16%) from the previous day and down $4.77 (-5.48%) from the previous week. The price of London silver was $81.31 per ounce, down $13.32 (-14.07%) from the previous day and down $6.80 (-7.72%) from the previous week. [3] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21854.00 yuan per kilogram, up 209.00 yuan (0.97%) from the previous day and down 1175.00 yuan (-5.10%) from the previous week. The closing price of Silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 21561.00 yuan per kilogram, up 134.00 yuan (0.63%) from the previous day and down 570.00 yuan (-2.58%) from the previous week. [3] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1821 lots, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings decreased by 98.36 tons (-0.61%). [3][4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - International prices: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract was $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from the previous week. The price of London platinum was $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from the previous week. [4] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from the previous week. The closing price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 545.09 yuan per gram, up 20.04 yuan (3.82%) from the previous day and up 1.10 yuan (0.20%) from the previous week. [4] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots. [4] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] - International prices: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract was $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from the previous week. The price of London palladium was $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from the previous week. [5] - Domestic prices: The closing price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from the previous week. [5] - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots. [5] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit and discount rate both decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%. The reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 3.65%. [6] - The Fed's total assets were $66645.86 billion, up $2.16 billion (0.00%) from the previous week. M2 increased by 4.29% year - on - year, up 0.36 percentage points from the previous week. [6] - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.40%, up 0.05 (2.13%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous week. The US dollar index was 99.27, up 0.72 (0.73%) from the previous day and up 1.61 (1.65%) from the previous week. [6] - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also provided in detail. [6][7][8] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from March 2026 to December 2027 is presented in a table. For example, at the March 18, 2026 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 325 - 350 range is 2.7%, and in the 350 - 375 range is 97.3%. [10]

Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed marks a significant diplomatic engagement, reflecting the ongoing importance of Saudi Arabia in U.S. Middle East strategy [1][2] - The normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been paused due to the recent Gaza conflict, impacting U.S. efforts to establish a "Middle Eastern NATO" to counter Iran [2][3] - Trump’s strategic intent remains consistent with previous years, but the geopolitical landscape necessitates greater concessions to Saudi Arabia, such as the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets [3][4] Group 2 - The designation of Saudi Arabia as a "major non-NATO ally" simplifies U.S. arms export procedures and enhances the security partnership between the two nations [4] - Saudi Arabia's commitment to increase investments in the U.S. from $600 billion to $1 trillion indicates a significant economic partnership, covering infrastructure, industry, and technology [4][5] - The actual realization of Saudi investments and the sale of F-35 jets may face uncertainties due to potential changes in U.S. administration and domestic opposition to sensitive technology transfers [5]

Group 1 - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed is expected to visit the U.S. in mid-November, marking his first visit in seven years, amidst a significantly changed geopolitical environment between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. [1] - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has opened the possibility for the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which had been stalled due to the ongoing conflict [1][2] - Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains fragile, with ongoing Israeli airstrikes and the second phase of the ceasefire still pending [1] Group 2 - The Biden administration had previously attempted to facilitate Saudi-Israeli normalization through defense cooperation and civilian nuclear plans, but the recent Gaza conflict has interrupted these efforts [2] - Trump’s administration had positioned Saudi Arabia as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with significant investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, although actual transactions were lower than reported [2][3] - The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 cast a shadow over U.S.-Saudi relations, leading to criticism from the U.S. Congress and a halt in arms sales [3] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has evolved since the Crown Prince's last visit, with improved relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and a reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran [3] - Ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon remain volatile, with the potential for regional spillover effects from localized conflicts [3] - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Hamas targets in Qatar have prompted strong reactions from Arab nations, leading to calls for a reassessment of diplomatic relations with Israel [3][4] Group 4 - Following a recent emergency summit, Saudi Arabia signed a strategic defense agreement with Pakistan, indicating a shift towards strengthening regional alliances in response to perceived threats [4] - The agreement includes provisions for mutual defense, highlighting the growing military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan [4] - The U.S.'s perceived inaction during regional conflicts has led Saudi Arabia to seek alternative partnerships, diminishing U.S. influence in the region [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].