Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand and rising prices for its core product, waste cooking oil, which is a key raw material for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [2][3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.386 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.17% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 249 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.89% [1] - In Q3 alone, the net profit increased by 39.55% year-on-year, indicating a strong quarterly performance [2] - The company's operating cash flow remained robust, with a net amount of 367 million yuan for the first three quarters, up 5.80% year-on-year [2] Business Development - The company's biomass resource regeneration business is a core driver of its performance growth, benefiting from the upcoming mandatory blending ratio policy for SAF in Europe, which is expected to boost demand and prices for used cooking oil (UCO) [3] - The company has secured long-term stable rights for kitchen waste treatment through a BOT model, ensuring a low-cost supply of raw materials [3] - Currently, the company operates 35 biomass resource regeneration centers, with 21 already in operation, including five projects with a daily processing capacity of over 1,000 tons [3] Synthetic Biology Initiatives - The company is actively expanding into synthetic biology, with its human milk oligosaccharides (HMO) product entering the trial production phase [4] - The first phase of the HMO project involves 260 tons and is progressing smoothly, with key products receiving necessary approvals and certifications for market access [4] - The company has established connections with major target customers and is entering the qualification process for leading dairy enterprises, which is expected to generate revenue and profit starting next year [4] Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 1.901 billion, 2.363 billion, and 2.750 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.15%, 24.30%, and 16.38% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 300 million, 381 million, and 444 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 39.40%, 26.83%, and 16.48% [4] - Based on the closing price on October 24, 2025, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 16.75, 13.20, and 11.34, with earnings per share (EPS) of 1.25, 1.58, and 1.84 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.44 CNY [4][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the consolidation of Xiehe Fermentation will enhance earnings, with an expected increase in non-recurring gains of approximately 780 million CNY in the 2025 profit statement [12]. - The company is adapting to global competitive pressures by actively engaging in international trade negotiations, successfully reducing the EU anti-dumping tax rate on lysine from an initial 84.8% to a final rate of 47.7%, thereby improving price competitiveness [12]. - The company is accelerating its overseas capacity expansion, having completed the acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation's related businesses in Japan, which allows for an extension into high-value-added pharmaceutical-grade amino acids and enhances its international operational footprint [12]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,761 million CNY, with a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3,181 million CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 27.8% [11]. - For the years 2025 to 2027, the net profit is forecasted to be 3,200 million CNY, 3,456 million CNY, and 3,728 million CNY respectively, indicating a recovery trend with growth rates of 16.8%, 8.0%, and 7.9% [11]. - The company maintains a net asset return rate of 22.5% for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 18.8% in 2024 before stabilizing around 19.3% by 2027 [11]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 29,921 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 9.14 to 11.65 CNY [5]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is 9.41, which is projected to decrease to 8.03 by 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to industry peers [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Meihua Holdings Group, assigning a target price of 14.38 yuan based on a 11.5x PE for FY26 [3][13]. Core Insights - The company has successfully merged with Kyowa Hakko Bio, enhancing its product pipeline and extending its industrial chain into the high value-added pharmaceutical grade amino acid market. This merger is expected to contribute approximately 780 million yuan in non-operating income for 2025 [1][11]. - The company has actively reduced the anti-dumping duty rate on lysine in the European Union from an initial 84.8% to 47.7%, improving its product competitiveness [4][15]. - Ongoing projects, such as the Tongliao MSG production capacity upgrade and the Jilin lysine project, are expected to significantly expand the company's operational scale [4][15]. - Increased investment in R&D and the establishment of a pilot research platform are aimed at enhancing the efficiency of converting research into industrial applications, supporting rapid commercialization of new products [4][15]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for Meihua Holdings Group are 3.255 billion yuan for 2025, 3.504 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.793 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [3][5]. - Total revenue is expected to increase from 25.069 billion yuan in 2024 to 29.659 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.1% [5][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.98 yuan in 2024 to 1.35 yuan in 2027 [5][9]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report includes a comparison of Meihua Holdings Group's valuation with peers, indicating a favorable position with a lower PE ratio compared to some competitors, suggesting potential for price appreciation [6].

Company Update - MeiHua Bio's Singapore subsidiary signed a share and asset purchase agreement with Kirin Holdings' wholly-owned subsidiary, Kyowa Hakko Bio Co., Ltd., to acquire its food amino acids, pharmaceutical amino acids, and human milk oligosaccharides (HMO) business for 10.5 billion JPY (approximately 500 million RMB) in cash [1] - The transaction price is approximately 16.8 billion JPY (about 833 million RMB) based on the cash retention of the target assets and working capital adjustments as of the closing date, with the asset transfer completed by July 2025 [1] Commentary - The acquisition of high-quality assets at a low cost and its completion accelerates MeiHua Bio's global expansion [2] - The asset valuation report indicates that the total equity value of the acquired businesses is estimated at 1.626 billion RMB, making the transaction price of 833 million RMB particularly cost-effective [2] - The company expects to recognize an increase in non-operating income of approximately 780 million RMB in the 2025 consolidated profit statement, enhancing certainty in overseas expansion [2] - The acquisition expands the amino acid product pipeline and extends into the high-value pharmaceutical-grade amino acid market, while also increasing production entities in Thailand and North America, thereby enhancing global competitiveness [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Considering the non-operating income from the transaction but a decline in amino acid market conditions, the profit forecast for 2025 is raised by 7% to 3.37 billion RMB, while the 2026 profit forecast remains unchanged at 3.2 billion RMB [3] - The current stock price corresponds to 8.9 times the 2025 earnings and 9.3 times the 2026 earnings [3] - The target price remains at 13.7 RMB, corresponding to 11.4/12.0 times the earnings for 2025/26, with a potential upside of 28%, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [3]