周五上午，马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）毛棕榈油 期货开盘可能上涨，主要反映了外部植物油市场 走强。知情人士透露，特朗普政府计划在3月初敲定2026年生物燃料掺混配额，受此消息提振，芝加哥 豆油期货大幅攀升，这将有助于提振马来西亚毛棕榈油期货早盘表现。马来西亚棕榈油出口改善，也对 价格具有支持意义。船运调查机构称，1月上半月马来西亚棕榈油出口量环比增长17.5%到18.6%。不过 国际原油期货下挫，印尼取消今年原计划推出的B50生物柴油计划，马来西亚棕榈油库存增加，将制约 大盘的上涨势头。 ...

1. Report's Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures show an obvious sign of breaking downward, pressured by concerns of increased production and slowed exports. It is expected to seek support between 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit. The potential increase in end - month inventory may further dampen the market [3]. - Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are dragged down by the Malaysian market, with short - term pressure to decline to 8,500 yuan. It may follow the upward trend after the Malaysian palm oil stabilizes around 4,000 ringgit, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, the supply of soybean oil is abundant while demand is weak, and high soybean import costs support the oil mills. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil reached a low of 8,066 yuan today. It is supported at 8,000 yuan in the short term. Its trend depends on the movement of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil [4]. Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal 01 contract fluctuates upward, influenced by import costs and the weak performance of the oil sector. It follows the movement of US soybeans, and there is a risk of profit - taking causing a price dip to test the 3,000 - yuan support. The overall upward trend remains. Spot prices are adjusted within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [16]. 2. Price and Spread Information Palm Oil - Futures spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; P 5 - 9 is 202 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; P 9 - 1 is - 152 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [5]. - Spot and futures prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4,097 ringgit/ton, down 2.61%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8,550 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [7]. Soybean Oil - Futures spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Y 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton, unchanged; Y 9 - 1 is - 262 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Spot and futures prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 48.62 cents/pound, down 1.94%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8,270 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Futures prices: Bean meal 01 is 3,026 yuan, up 5 yuan (0.17%); Rapeseed meal 01 is 2,491 yuan, up 103 yuan (4.31%) [17]. - Spreads: M01 - 05 is 208 yuan, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 46 yuan, down 20 yuan [18].

Market Review - Domestic oilseed market showed a strong fluctuation on Monday, with palm oil futures for the 2601 contract rising by 1.67% to 9482 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China reached 610,100 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons (4.81%) from the previous week, and a year-on-year increase of 1.65% from 593,700 tons [2] - The Planters' Association of Ceylon reiterated its call for lifting the palm oil planting ban, with the current government showing positive acceptance of their proposal [2] - AmInvestment Bank reported on September 2 that crude palm oil futures are expected to trend downward due to seasonal production increases and cautious market sentiment, with support at 4,353 MYR/ton and resistance at 4,429 MYR/ton [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in August while exports increased, leading to a slowdown in inventory accumulation; Indonesia's palm oil inventory fell to 2.5 million tons, with cumulative exports up by 10.95% year-on-year [3] - Zhonghui Futures highlighted that policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with demand from China and India; the outlook remains bullish, suggesting a buying strategy on dips [3] - The potential reduction of export tariffs on Indonesian palm oil to the U.S. may negatively impact palm oil prices, but strong export data from Malaysia in August warrants caution against aggressive short positions [3]

【油脂市场近期走势及展望】国际棕榈油市场上，马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油期货受产量增长打压，短线 在4250令吉年线附近震荡。需关注能否有效站稳4250令吉后向上走强，否则将跌破年线支撑，或趋弱至 4000令吉。近期应密切关注毛棕油期价能否站稳4250令吉。 国内棕榈油市场，大连棕榈油期货维持高 位震荡。受马棕震荡调整拖累，连棕油期货有望围绕9000元整理。关注能否有效站稳9000元，否则趋弱 下探压力大。近期需关注20日均线得失及马棕能否站稳4250令吉。 豆油方面，近几日工厂成交好转， 因部分市场人士看涨。现阶段工厂豆油库存继续增加，但终端需求将好转，高校开学和中秋备货将使下 半月库存有望减少。三大油脂中，豆油价格优势明显，易替代棕油与菜油，对基差报价有支撑，中长线 偏强。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...