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铂钯上市系列专题一:铂钯产业链全景透析
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 10:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for platinum/palladium is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are platinum - group metals with high melting points, strong catalytic activity, and corrosion resistance. Their spot benchmark pricing power is concentrated in the London Platinum and Palladium Market, and the futures pricing power is dominated by the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts [1]. - On the supply side, global platinum and palladium resources are highly concentrated, with significant oligopoly risks. China has a high degree of import dependence, and the import risk remains high for a long time [2]. - On the demand side, platinum demand fluctuates greatly, mainly from the automotive and investment sectors. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector. China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium. The hydrogen energy demand for platinum and palladium has a bright future, and the investment demand is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Basics - Platinum and palladium have similar physical and chemical properties, such as high melting points, good ductility, and strong catalytic activity. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, high - end jewelry, and the chemical industry, while palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts [1][15][16]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - **Upstream**: Global platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. China's platinum - group element reserves are less than 1% of the world's, and the supply is highly dependent on imports [20]. - **Mid - stream**: Processing includes primary metal extraction and recycling. The extraction and refining of primary platinum and palladium are complex. There are differences in the separation and purification processes of platinum and palladium, with platinum having a longer refining cycle and lower short - term supply elasticity [24][25]. - **Downstream**: Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum demand is more diversified, including automotive, jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors. There are differences in their applications in different fields [28][29][30]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Circulation and Pricing Market - Platinum and palladium are mainly circulated in the form of metal ingots and sponge metals. The current global pricing system includes the London Platinum and Palladium Market for spot pricing and the New York Mercantile Exchange for futures pricing. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts to address China's lack of pricing power [32][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Cyclical Supply and Stable Ratio of Primary to Recycled**: Global platinum and palladium supply shows cyclical characteristics. The ratio of primary to recycled supply has remained relatively stable in the long term, with palladium having a slightly higher recycling ratio [51][52]. - **Overseas Primary Supply**: Platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. The production of platinum and palladium mines has shown a downward trend in recent years. The output of leading mining enterprises has decreased, and short - term supply may remain tight [57][58][62]. - **Recycled Platinum and Palladium**: The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector. Traditional recycling regions are developed economies in Europe, America, and Japan. China's recycled platinum production has been increasing. The supply of recycled platinum and palladium is related to the vehicle scrapping cycle and policy drivers [89][90][95]. 3.5 Global Platinum and Palladium Trade and China's Supply - In international trade, platinum and palladium are mainly exported from South Africa and Russia. China, Germany, the United States, and other countries are major importers. China is highly dependent on imports for platinum and palladium, facing long - term import risks. Some domestic enterprises are investing overseas, but it is difficult to change the import - dependent pattern in the short term [100][104][107]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: This is the main demand source for platinum and palladium. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, and palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts. The demand is related to automobile production and sales, policies, and price - driven substitution effects between platinum and palladium [133][134][136]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is an ideal material for high - end jewelry, especially in the wedding market. China is the main source of demand elasticity for platinum jewelry. Jewelry demand is related to macro - economic indicators and inventory cycles [148][149][158]. - **Industrial Demand**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in the industrial field. Platinum demand in the glass and chemical industries is related to the real - estate cycle and macro - economic indicators. The demand in the electronics, petrochemical, and medical industries is relatively stable. Hydrogen energy is a future growth point for demand [159][163][166].
国投期货国投期货期市晨报-20250805
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 10:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium markets are characterized by high supply concentration and low elasticity, with significant influence from factors such as mine production, recycling, and demand in various sectors. The Chinese market has a high dependence on imports for platinum - palladium resources, and the recycling sector is becoming increasingly important. The development of platinum - palladium futures and options provides new investment opportunities [15][22][86] - The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive catalyst sector is affected by factors such as the development of new - energy vehicles and emission standards. The potential for growth in the hydrogen energy sector offers new prospects for the consumption of platinum and palladium [37][47][77] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview - Platinum and palladium, along with rhodium, ruthenium, osmium, and iridium, form the platinum - group metals (PGMs), which are precious metals. Platinum and palladium have higher demand than other PGMs. Platinum has a crustal content of 0.005 ppm, and palladium has 0.0006 ppm [6] - Platinum (Pt) has a high melting point, good ductility, and excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium (Pd) can adsorb gases, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [7][8] - Platinum - group metal deposits can be divided into primary and secondary sand deposits. The main formation causes include magmatic action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [10] 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain - The supply chain of platinum - group metals has an "oligopoly" structure. Most raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers. The separation and purification processes of platinum - group metals vary according to the raw material composition. The current mainstream purity of platinum and palladium in the spot market is not less than 99.95%, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange requires the delivery purity to be no less than 99.95% [15][19] - The extraction of platinum - group metals involves steps such as exploration, mining development, ore extraction, processing, and refining. Recycling of platinum - group metals is highly valued due to their low crustal content [16][20] 3.3 Global Platinum Supply - Demand Pattern - The main platinum - supplying countries are South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output accounted for 71% of the global total. The global platinum output declined in 2024, and it is expected to decline further in 2025 [55][57] - The main platinum - consuming regions are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. In 2024, the global platinum demand decreased by 1.6% to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. The demand in the automotive industry, jewelry, and other sectors showed different trends [59][65] 3.4 Global Palladium Supply - Demand Pattern - The main palladium - supplying countries are Russia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States. In 2024, Russia and South Africa accounted for 43% and 41% of the global total respectively. The global palladium output increased by 0.7 tons to 25.6 tons in 2024, with a supply surplus of 2.4 tons [69][71][77] - The main palladium - consuming regions are China, the United States, Europe, and Japan. The demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst sector decreased due to factors such as the substitution of new - energy vehicles [73][77] 3.5 Chinese Platinum - Group Resource Pattern - China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, with most of the reserves in Gansu. In 2024, China produced 4.9 tons of platinum - palladium metals. The import dependence on platinum - palladium resources is high, and the recycling industry is facing challenges such as waste shortages [82][86] - In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum and 28.1 tons of palladium. The consumption of platinum and palladium in China showed different trends, with the consumption of palladium in the automotive catalyst sector declining significantly [88][92][100] 3.6 Platinum and Palladium Price Review - The historical price trends of platinum and palladium are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, economic conditions, and geopolitical situations. The price difference between platinum and palladium and the ratio of gold to platinum also show certain patterns [116] 3.7 Draft of Platinum and Palladium Futures of Guangzhou Futures Exchange - The contract text, risk control system, and delivery business of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are under development. The current global active platinum and palladium futures markets are mainly in COMEX [52] 3.8 Platinum and Palladium Options - The draft of platinum and palladium options includes the option contract solicitation draft and the risk control system [42]
铂钯系列(一):品种概况与产业链
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 11:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. The supply chain of PGMs is in a "pyramid" shape, and the upstream mine resources are highly concentrated. The consumption of platinum and palladium is mainly in the fields of catalysts, jewelry, and other industrial applications, and there are various investment channels [1][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview - **Natural Attributes**: Platinum and palladium are silver - white metals, belonging to PGMs and precious metals. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth. Platinum is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, etc., while palladium is mainly used in the catalyst field [1][2][4]. - **Resource Distribution and Classification**: PGMs are mostly in the form of composite ores. Platinum deposits are related to ultramafic rocks and are formed through tectonic processes. PGM mines can be divided into primary and exogenous sand deposits. The main formation causes include magmatic action, magmatic hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition. Global PGM resources are mainly concentrated in five regions, and most of China's PGM deposits are symbiotic or associated ores [5][11]. 3.2 Platinum Group Metal Industry Chain - **Upstream**: The upstream mine resources are highly concentrated. South Africa is the main producer, accounting for nearly 80% of the global reserves. The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks, and the top 5 platinum producers account for 82% of the supply [21][25][26]. - **Material Supply and Recycling**: The platinum - group material industry is technology and capital - intensive. Multinational groups dominate the processing and recycling fields. In China, the recycling capacity of PGMs is expanding, but the secondary resource supply is becoming tight, and domestic enterprises face fierce competition [30]. - **Terminal Applications** - **Automotive Catalysts**: Platinum and palladium are mainly used as catalysts in automobile exhaust purification. Platinum has better performance in diesel engines, while palladium is more commonly used in gasoline engines [32][35][41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is suitable for high - end jewelry due to its high density, good ductility, and stability. Palladium is less used in jewelry due to its processing difficulty and color change [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: In the chemical, glass, electronics, medical, and hydrogen energy industries, platinum and palladium play important roles as catalysts or materials [46][47][48]. - **Investment Channels**: Platinum investment includes physical investment (platinum bars and coins), platinum accumulation plans (PAP), platinum ETFs, futures, forwards, and indirect investment through stocks [50].