Group 1: 2024 Market Characteristics - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period in 2024, showing a "declining volume but increasing profit" trend, with production down 1.8% to 4.145 million kiloliters, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.38 billion yuan [1][21][22] - The profit total reached 250.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with A-share listed liquor companies reporting a total revenue of 442.23 billion yuan, up 7.3% [1][22] - The CR6 companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Gujinggong) accounted for 86% of the industry's total profit, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration [1][22][27] Group 2: 2025 Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, liquor production fell by 7.2% to 1.032 million kiloliters, continuing the trend of declining production [2][40] - Listed companies showed resilience with a revenue of 153.42 billion yuan, up 1.7%, and a net profit of 64.91 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][40] - The industry faces challenges with "declining volume and price, and rising costs," as 59.7% of companies reported reduced operating profits [2][49] Group 3: Market Environment Changes and Competitive Landscape - The revised regulations in May 2025 expanded the ban on alcohol consumption, impacting market sentiment and causing a 2-3% overall decline in the liquor sector [3] - The CR6 brands accounted for 87.6% of the revenue of the 20 A-share liquor brands in Q1 2025, indicating further concentration in the market [4] - The younger consumer demographic is emerging, with those born between 1985 and 1994 becoming a key market segment, although business and management personnel still represent 85.1% of the consumer base [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Development Suggestions - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies, with 64.9% focusing on core products and 40.4% targeting the mass market [5] - Recommendations for industry health include optimizing capacity and focusing on high-quality development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven strategies [6] - Emphasis on digital marketing and technological innovation is crucial, with 34.9% of companies prioritizing instant retail channel expansion [7] Group 5: Online Sales and Consumer Behavior - Online sales in the first five months of 2025 exceeded 60 million bottles, generating over 30 billion yuan, although national brands are struggling with growth [2][53] - The average online sales revenue for A-share listed companies was 5.0% of total revenue, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [53] - Consumer behavior is shifting, with a notable decline in traditional consumption scenarios, leading to a decrease in demand during holiday periods [63][70]

五一白酒动销跟踪 20250505 摘要 • 茅台通过调整产品结构和加强渠道管理来平衡收入与市场价格，飞天茅台 保持稳定，公鸡茅台增加配额外供应，并放宽经销商报备限制，开发新场 景和客户，同时适当增加经销商库存，加快商务节奏。 • 2025 年茅台经销渠道进度加快，1-4 月已完成飞天总量约 50%，合同计 划达 48%，公司通过调整发货节奏有效应对市场需求和压力，保持价格稳 定，并积极转型，发展新客户群体，应对行业整体偏弱的态势。 • 白酒行业整体趋势下降，但茅台表现亮眼，飞天系列库存保持合理水平， 通过性价比引导需求释放，调整营销渠道和策略，实现相对稳定发展，高 端白酒品牌也展现一定韧性，但总体面临压力。 • 五粮液一批价稳定在 915-920 元，但市场需求不足导致动销缓慢，库存压 力较大，公司承诺不让经销商赔钱，但实际情况不乐观，市场信任度降低， 烟酒店对涨价持悲观态度，影响动销。 • 国窖 1,573 高度酒一批价 860 元，低度酒 610 元，山东市场以低度酒为 主，动销较好，通过与烟酒店签订包量协议，加强管控，但经销商仍面临 赔钱风险，库存压力较高。 Q&A 茅台在 2025 年的价格走势如何 ...