Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor industry reported its worst performance in a decade for Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies (excluding Shunxin Agriculture) achieving a total revenue of 312.09 billion yuan and a net profit of 122.49 billion yuan, both down approximately 7% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - The total revenue and net profit of the liquor industry have significantly declined, indicating a pronounced pressure on the industry [1] - Only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu managed to maintain growth in both revenue and net profit amidst the overall decline [1] - The total contract liabilities for 20 liquor companies reached 39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.54%, despite the overall performance downturn [1][6] Inventory and Turnover - The total inventory of 21 listed liquor companies rose to 170.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.32%, with an average inventory turnover period extending to 1424 days, up 65.21% from the previous year [2][4] - The increase in inventory turnover days signals significant pressure on channel inventory [4] Market Response - The market reacted calmly to the poor performance reports, with the China Securities Liquor Index rising by 1.72% on October 31, indicating that investors have already digested the performance pressures [1] - The stability in contract liabilities suggests that confidence in the industry and companies remains intact, despite the challenges [2][7] Channel Dynamics - The increase in contract liabilities is primarily driven by leading liquor companies, with four out of six major firms reporting year-on-year growth [7] - Companies are shifting from a simple sales model to a service-oriented approach, focusing on channel health and profitability for distributors [8][9] Innovative Sales Models - New sales models are emerging, such as the "Wan Shang Alliance" by Zhenjiu Li Du, which emphasizes no stockpiling and allows for returns, thereby reducing inventory risks [10][11] - The introduction of commission-based systems and unified pricing strategies aims to alleviate financial pressure on distributors and ensure transparent profit distribution [12] Conclusion - The growth in contract liabilities and the evolving relationships between manufacturers and distributors highlight the industry's resilience and potential for recovery, as companies prioritize channel health and collaborative strategies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - During this year's "Double 11" shopping festival, at least eight major liquor companies issued statements regarding authorized stores, highlighting the prevalence of counterfeit products sold at low prices under the guise of "billion-dollar subsidies" and emphasizing the need for consumers to purchase through authorized channels [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Response to Counterfeit Products - Major liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, have collectively issued warnings about unauthorized stores, marking a significant shift in their approach during promotional events [2][3] - Wuliangye reported that 12% of products purchased online were counterfeit, with a significant portion sourced from large e-commerce platforms [2][3] - The industry is increasingly recognizing the risks associated with unauthorized sales channels, which lack product control and traceability, leading to potential quality issues for consumers [3][4] Group 2: Price and Inventory Challenges - The liquor industry is facing high inventory levels and widespread price inversion, with the average inventory turnover days reaching 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year [6] - Moutai's price has dropped significantly, with a total decline of 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market conditions [6][7] - The trend of low-priced promotions has exacerbated price inversion issues, forcing liquor companies to reassess their pricing strategies to maintain market stability [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Shift in Pricing Management - Liquor companies are increasingly focusing on controlling prices and stabilizing their pricing systems in response to market pressures [5][8] - Recent financial reports indicate that only a few companies, like Moutai, have seen revenue growth, while most have abandoned annual growth targets to prioritize channel health and price stability [8] - The ongoing losses faced by many distributors are prompting upstream liquor companies to reconsider their volume and pricing strategies to protect their interests [8]

Core Insights - The chairman of Xijiu Group, Wang Diqiang, has been conducting extensive market research across various provinces, indicating a strategic response to market pressures [1][5][10] - The wholesale price of Junpin Xijiu has seen a significant decline of 39.82% over the past five years, making it the largest drop among T9 brands [5][9][12] - The company aims to enhance its market positioning and sales strategies amid changing consumer preferences and increased competition following its separation from Moutai [10][15][17] Market Research and Strategy - Wang Diqiang's recent visits to key markets such as Shaanxi and Tianjin are part of a broader initiative to understand market dynamics and unify corporate strategy [1][5] - The research aims to identify issues and foster consensus within the company to elevate its marketing efforts [5][9] Price Trends and Market Position - Junpin Xijiu's wholesale price has decreased from 955 yuan per bottle in June 2021 to approximately 683 yuan currently, reflecting a significant market adjustment [5][8] - The average inventory turnover days for the white liquor industry has increased to 900 days, indicating a growing challenge in managing stock and pricing strategies [9][12] Industry Context and Challenges - The white liquor industry is experiencing a structural shift in consumer behavior, with a growing preference for lower-priced products, impacting high-end brands like Junpin Xijiu [9][10] - Following its independence from Moutai in 2022, Xijiu faces intensified competition, necessitating a reevaluation of its market strategy [12][15] Future Goals and Development - Xijiu aims to achieve an asset scale of 33 billion yuan and revenue of 23.5 billion yuan by 2025, with current figures at 26.835 billion yuan and 19.864 billion yuan respectively [17] - The company's leadership is focused on stabilizing prices and enhancing market confidence to drive growth in a challenging industry landscape [17]

Group 1 - Shandong is a major province for the production and sales of Chinese liquor, with a market size of approximately 55 billion yuan in 2024, making it a competitive battleground for brands [1] - Langjiu Group's chairman, Wang Junlin, is leading efforts to strengthen the company's presence in Shandong over the next three years, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and price inversion in the industry [1] - The white liquor market is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with continuous price declines observed in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Langjiu's product matrix includes key items such as Qinghua Lang, Honghua Lang, and Hongyun Lang, with a focus on premium and high-end products [3] - The pricing structure of Langjiu's flagship product, Qinghua Lang, has shown significant weakness, with a price drop of 21.79% over the past five years [4] - The overall trend in the white liquor market indicates a decline in prices, with Moutai's price dropping by 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics [3][4] Group 3 - The competitive landscape in Shandong shows that the majority of consumers prefer strong aroma liquor, with over 70% of low-alcohol consumption in certain regions, posing a challenge for Langjiu's primarily sauce-flavored product lineup [11] - Langjiu's market position in Shandong is relatively weak compared to other brands, with a need to surpass the 1 billion yuan threshold to compete effectively [13] - The market is dominated by established brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, creating a challenging environment for new entrants like Langjiu [13][15]

Group 1: 2024 Market Characteristics - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period in 2024, showing a "declining volume but increasing profit" trend, with production down 1.8% to 4.145 million kiloliters, while sales revenue increased by 5.3% to 796.38 billion yuan [1][21][22] - The profit total reached 250.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with A-share listed liquor companies reporting a total revenue of 442.23 billion yuan, up 7.3% [1][22] - The CR6 companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Gujinggong) accounted for 86% of the industry's total profit, indicating a significant increase in industry concentration [1][22][27] Group 2: 2025 Market Conditions - In Q1 2025, liquor production fell by 7.2% to 1.032 million kiloliters, continuing the trend of declining production [2][40] - Listed companies showed resilience with a revenue of 153.42 billion yuan, up 1.7%, and a net profit of 64.91 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][40] - The industry faces challenges with "declining volume and price, and rising costs," as 59.7% of companies reported reduced operating profits [2][49] Group 3: Market Environment Changes and Competitive Landscape - The revised regulations in May 2025 expanded the ban on alcohol consumption, impacting market sentiment and causing a 2-3% overall decline in the liquor sector [3] - The CR6 brands accounted for 87.6% of the revenue of the 20 A-share liquor brands in Q1 2025, indicating further concentration in the market [4] - The younger consumer demographic is emerging, with those born between 1985 and 1994 becoming a key market segment, although business and management personnel still represent 85.1% of the consumer base [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Development Suggestions - Companies are adopting pragmatic strategies, with 64.9% focusing on core products and 40.4% targeting the mass market [5] - Recommendations for industry health include optimizing capacity and focusing on high-quality development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven strategies [6] - Emphasis on digital marketing and technological innovation is crucial, with 34.9% of companies prioritizing instant retail channel expansion [7] Group 5: Online Sales and Consumer Behavior - Online sales in the first five months of 2025 exceeded 60 million bottles, generating over 30 billion yuan, although national brands are struggling with growth [2][53] - The average online sales revenue for A-share listed companies was 5.0% of total revenue, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [53] - Consumer behavior is shifting, with a notable decline in traditional consumption scenarios, leading to a decrease in demand during holiday periods [63][70]