Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trading heat in commodity markets, particularly in oil, natural gas, and shipping, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][3][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - On March 2, 2023, 12 commodity futures, including crude oil, hit the upper limit, followed by another 10 on March 3, indicating strong market activity [1]. - SC crude oil futures rose by 13.99% to 641.1 yuan per barrel, while fuel futures increased by over 13% [1]. - The "war premium" has led to significant price differentiation, with natural gas and shipping prices surging more than international oil prices, with shipping up over 30% and natural gas up over 70% [1]. Group 2: Natural Gas and Shipping Prices - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to severe global natural gas shortages, as it is a critical passage for oil and LNG [3]. - Brent crude oil prices reached a 14-month high of $82.37 per barrel, with a subsequent increase of approximately 7% [3]. - European natural gas prices surged, with the TTF near-month futures rising by 53.76% on March 2 and over 26% on March 3, totaling a two-day increase of over 70% [3]. Group 3: Shipping Index and Rates - The European shipping index saw a significant increase of 34.34% over two trading days, nearly double the gains of domestic oil and fuel products [4]. - Daily rental rates for VLCC oil tankers exceeded $200,000, with benchmark rates for routes from the Persian Gulf to Japan rising by over 36% [4]. Group 4: Energy Sector Performance - Major Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, experienced consecutive trading halts, contributing to a near 10-year high for the Shenwan primary oil and petrochemical index [5]. - The coal sector also saw significant gains, with the Shenwan primary coal index reaching a nearly 4-year high [5]. - Oil and gas ETFs and LOF products led the market, with the benchmark index for oil and gas industries up 47.8% year-to-date [5]. Group 5: New Energy and Precious Metals - In contrast to the surge in traditional energy sectors, lithium carbonate and other new energy materials faced declines, with lithium futures dropping by 12.99% to 15,086 yuan per ton [6]. - Precious metals like gold and silver experienced volatility, with significant price fluctuations observed in the market [7][8]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Asset Preferences - The ongoing conflict is expected to push oil prices to $100 per barrel, with market consensus leaning towards bullish sentiment on oil [9]. - Traditional cyclical assets such as machinery, oil and gas, and construction materials are gaining favor in the market due to their stability amid uncertainties in AI-related sectors [9].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.96% [1] - Shipbuilding, aerospace, and semiconductors showed the highest gains, while small metals, photovoltaic equipment, and shipping ports collectively retreated [1] ETF Performance - The top five ETFs by increase were: - France CAC40 ETF (513080) up 3.11% - China-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) up 2.35% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (589020) up 2.32% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) up 2.21% - Sci-Tech Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) up 2.14% [1] - The top five ETFs by decrease were: - Oil and Gas ETF (561760) down 3.63% - Oil ETF (561360) down 3.60% - Oil and Gas ETF (159309) down 3.58% - Oil and Gas ETF (561570) down 3.50% - Oil ETF (159697) down 3.30% [1] ETF Trading Volume - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included: - A500 ETF Fund (512050) with a volume of 9.776 billion - A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360) with 7.270 billion - CSI A500 ETF (159338) with 5.846 billion - A500 ETF Southern (159352) with 5.665 billion - Gold ETF (518880) with 4.225 billion - A500 ETF E Fund (159361) with 3.106 billion - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with 3.105 billion - Hong Kong Securities ETF E Fund (513090) with 2.785 billion - CSI 500 ETF (510500) with 2.601 billion - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with 2.303 billion [2]

Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF Bosera (561760) opened with a gain of 0.52%, priced at 1.350 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) up 0.55%, China Petroleum up 0.37%, and China Petrochemical down 0.15% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index return rate, managed by Bosera Fund Management Co., with a return of 34.44% since its establishment on April 19, 2024, and a return of 16.23% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include Jerry Holdings up 1.27%, China Merchants Energy up 3.49%, and CNOOC Engineering up 1.81% [1] - The ETF's performance reflects the overall trends in the oil and gas sector, indicating a mixed performance among its key holdings [1]