Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 21, cup rubber is priced at 49.20 THB/kg (-0.15), while latex is at 54.70 THB/kg (0). Yunnan rubber water procurement price is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,810 USD/ton (+20), and Thai mixed at 14,600 CNY/ton (+50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month-on-month, but down 7.81 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month-on-month and up 7.01 percentage points year-on-year. The production of repaired enterprises has returned to normal, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory of tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of August 21, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days month-on-month and up 10.57 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days month-on-month and down 3.92 days year-on-year [1] Market Conditions and Price Trends - Continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas has led to insufficient upstream supply, keeping raw material prices at high levels. The reduction in Qingdao's spot inventory has slowed, and the increase in alternative planting in Yunnan has led to a rise in social inventory in China, expanding market bearish sentiment. Near the end of the month, agents may slightly increase their purchasing volume to meet monthly targets, while downstream continues to focus on regular replenishment [3] - External factors may slow trading in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and safety concerns may lead to suspensions in mining and engineering operations in other areas, negatively impacting overall replacement demand. The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with mixed bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to price fluctuations primarily within the range of 15,000 to 16,500. Future attention will be on the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in major producing areas [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Qingdao region's imported natural rubber market is experiencing a weak oscillation after a price increase, with STR20 spot prices reported at $1770-$1785 per ton, up 3.51% from late April, and Thai mixed prices around 14,400 RMB per ton, up 1.55% [1] - In early to mid-May, the market saw price fluctuations due to rising overseas raw material prices, strong futures, and a weaker USD against RMB, which boosted domestic prices [1] - Despite the positive macroeconomic developments from US-China trade negotiations, tire manufacturers maintained a cautious purchasing stance, leading to a lack of market confidence and a subsequent price correction towards the end of May [1] Group 2 - As of mid-May 2025, natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased year-on-year by 16.78% in general trade warehouses and by 29.07% in bonded zones, influenced by lower purchasing activity from tire factories [2] - The market outlook for June suggests potential downward pressure on natural rubber prices due to increased upstream production and a seasonal decline in demand, with a focus on weather conditions affecting rubber tapping [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to weakening orders and uncertainties in the macro market, indicating that trading conditions may not improve significantly [5]