2026 年 02 月 27 日 橡胶：宽幅震荡 20260227 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17.125 | 17.240 | -115 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17, 080 | 17, 315 | -235 | | | | 成交量(手) | 269, 900 | 272, 777 | -2,877 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 172, 951 | 175.091 | -2, 140 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 114. 070 | 112. 570 | +1, 500 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 24, 124 | 22. 664 | +1. 460 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -175 | -190 | +15 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -1, 225 | -1, 240 | +15 | | ...

2026 年 02 月 13 日 橡胶：震荡运行 20260213 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 450 | 16. 575 | -125 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 485 | 16. 520 | -35 | | | | 成交量(手) | 180, 678 | 270. 154 | -89.476 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 152, 702 | 162, 081 | -9.379 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 112, 570 | 112. 570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 22, 675 | 25. 648 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to move in a volatile manner [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The night - closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,520 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 270,154 lots, an increase of 92,600 lots; the open interest was 162,081 lots, an increase of 10,137 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 112,570 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 25,648 lots, an increase of 1,157 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (spot - futures main) was - 175 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spread between mixed rubber and the futures main was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spread between RU05 and RU09 was 90 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,250 US dollars/ton; the STR20 was 2,010 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars; the SMR20 was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars [1] - **Substitutes**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market for imported rubber, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1955 - 1960 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1960 - 1965 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1955 - 1960 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1960 - 1965 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of African 10 rubber was 1885 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [1] Industry News - **Semi - steel Tire Sample Enterprises**: Supported by foreign trade orders, the order performance of sample enterprises was better than expected. 50% of the enterprises' export orders increased to varying degrees compared with last month, 38% remained basically stable, and 13% decreased. The EU's rush for export orders and the increase in overseas customer orders before the Spring Festival supported enterprise production scheduling. The domestic replacement market had some stocking, but the overall performance was average, limiting the overall order increase [2][3] - **All - steel Tire Sample Enterprises**: The overall order performance further weakened. 20% of the all - steel tire sample enterprises' export orders increased compared with last month, 35% remained the same, and 45% decreased. Before the Spring Festival, overseas customers had moderate stocking, but the overall increase was limited due to the seasonal off - season. Domestic customers were restricted by funds and shipping pressure, and their stocking enthusiasm was not high, further weakening the overall orders [3] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1]

| | | 表 1：基本面数据 2026 年 02 月 06 日 橡胶：宽幅震荡 20260206 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 175 | 16. 385 | -210 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 200 | 16, 325 | -125 | | | | 成交量(手) | 283. 333 | 245. 413 | +37, 920 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 150, 013 | 159, 917 | -9. 904 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 111.570 | 111.570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 28, 660 | 31, 124 | -2, 464 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -175 | -185 | +10 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -995 | -1.085 | +90 | | | 月 差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,155 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume was 481,772 lots, an increase of 101,516 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 199,739 lots, an increase of 5,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 105,590 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members increased by 1,154 lots to 47,479 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract decreased by 35 to - 310, the basis of mixed - futures main contract decreased by 85 to - 1,010, and the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 10 to 20 [2] - **Spot Market**: The outer - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai mixed rubber and Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market decreased by 10 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15/10 dollars/ton [2] Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.14% to 9.35 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 3.13% to 47.47 million tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4] - The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR widened by 10 yuan/ton to 3,145 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract widened by 85 yuan/ton to - 1,010 yuan/ton [4] - There is a certain difference in the release of production capacity between enterprises. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have an increase in foreign trade orders, and their production has been further released. Some are still under production control due to sales pressure. Overall, foreign trade shipments support the overall shipments, but domestic sales pressure remains high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [11]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [11]. Report's Core View - The support for natural rubber is still at the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand may support the raw material prices, but the overall supply is increasing. Domestic port inventory is expected to rise further, and downstream tire orders are in the off - season, resulting in weak supply - demand drivers [11]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, supply remains abundant. Downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, on the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Market Information - In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - duty truck market this year [2]. - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million units and 3.429 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [2]. - In December 2025, the trading of all - steel tires was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, market demand weakened further. With relatively sufficient market supply, channels and terminal stores mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average. The market transaction price was stable with a weak trend, and some merchants carried out promotional activities according to their inventory [2]. - From January to October 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 586.64 million, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2]. Import and Export Data - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary shapes, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the exports of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the exports of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 270 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 30), the NR basis was 570 yuan/ton (- 35); the price of full - latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [4][5]. - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.69 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.89), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (- 1.39) [6]. - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.55% (+0.55%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.14% (+1.81%) [7]. - The social inventory of natural rubber was 498,888 tons (+10,159), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,123,406 tons (+20,841), the RU futures inventory was 56,990 tons (+11,460), and the NR futures inventory was 59,573 tons (+2,218) [7]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 330 yuan/ton (- 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton (+100), the quoted price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - butadiene rubber was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,207 yuan/ton (- 214) [8]. - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69% (- 2.84%) [9]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,450 tons (+220), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (- 600) [10]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The support for natural rubber comes from the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand are expected to keep the raw material prices in Thailand firm this week. However, the overall supply is increasing, and the domestic port inventory is expected to rise. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, so the supply - demand drivers are weak [11]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Yulong Petrochemical has restarted, and only Maoming Petrochemical is under maintenance, which is expected to restart in mid - January. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber remains abundant. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the pricing attributes of natural rubber have shifted from agricultural to industrial characteristics in 2025, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and domestic "anti-involution" trends [2][6][9] - In 2026, global natural rubber demand is expected to grow to approximately 14.8 million tons, a moderate increase of about 1% compared to 2025, despite trade barriers limiting growth [3][4] - The supply side is characterized by a young tree age structure in emerging production areas like Côte d'Ivoire, while aging trees in Indonesia may face production declines, necessitating growth from Thailand to balance global supply and demand [3][4][39] Group 2 - The report forecasts that natural rubber prices will continue to rise in 2026, with RU contracts expected to maintain above 14,000 CNY/ton and NR contracts above 11,700 CNY/ton, while the upper limit for RU contracts is projected to be below 17,500 CNY/ton [4][6] - The natural rubber planting industry is primarily composed of smallholder farmers, with about 90% of global production coming from this sector, indicating a low profit margin due to the long investment cycle [16][17] - Labor costs constitute approximately 60% of the total cost in natural rubber production, highlighting the significant impact of labor dynamics on production costs [17][18] Group 3 - The aging tree structure in traditional producing countries like Thailand is leading to increased production costs, which may shift the global cost curve [3][4][39] - The report emphasizes that the supply of natural rubber is highly dependent on weather conditions, with adverse weather potentially leading to reduced production capacity [51][52] - The natural rubber industry is experiencing a slow capacity clearance process, with the only path for capacity reduction being the natural aging of rubber trees, rather than immediate market-driven adjustments [39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of August 21, cup rubber is priced at 49.20 THB/kg (-0.15), while latex is at 54.70 THB/kg (0). Yunnan rubber water procurement price is 14,500 CNY/ton (0), Hainan fresh latex at 14,400 CNY/ton (0), Qingdao bonded area Thai standard at 1,810 USD/ton (+20), and Thai mixed at 14,600 CNY/ton (+50) [1] Tire Production Rates and Inventory - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate for China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 71.87%, up 2.76 percentage points month-on-month, but down 7.81 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for China's all-steel tire sample enterprises is 64.97%, up 2.35 percentage points month-on-month and up 7.01 percentage points year-on-year. The production of repaired enterprises has returned to normal, leading to a recovery in capacity utilization [1] - In Shandong, the finished product inventory of tire sample enterprises has increased month-on-month. As of August 21, the average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days month-on-month and up 10.57 days year-on-year. For all-steel tire sample enterprises, the average inventory turnover days is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days month-on-month and down 3.92 days year-on-year [1] Market Conditions and Price Trends - Continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas has led to insufficient upstream supply, keeping raw material prices at high levels. The reduction in Qingdao's spot inventory has slowed, and the increase in alternative planting in Yunnan has led to a rise in social inventory in China, expanding market bearish sentiment. Near the end of the month, agents may slightly increase their purchasing volume to meet monthly targets, while downstream continues to focus on regular replenishment [3] - External factors may slow trading in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and safety concerns may lead to suspensions in mining and engineering operations in other areas, negatively impacting overall replacement demand. The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with mixed bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to price fluctuations primarily within the range of 15,000 to 16,500. Future attention will be on the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in major producing areas [3]