化工日报 | 2025-11-25 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14900元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1840美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1730 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 青岛港口库存继续回升 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽车轮胎出口量为685万吨，同比 增长3.3%；出口金额为1158亿元，同比增长2.1%。 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15320元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨；NR主力合约12275元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, improved weather and continuous raw material supply pressure support a slight price increase. In Hainan, with better weather, tapping operations resume, and raw material supply shows a seasonal increase. Some processors' raw material replenishment enthusiasm increases due to improved profits and orders [2]. - Recently, Qingdao port's natural rubber inventory continues to decline, though the decline rate slows. The inflow increases while the outflow increase is moderate. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement is relatively mild, and they continue the on - demand procurement rhythm. Short - term Qingdao port inventory is expected to continue a slight decline [2]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably last week, but some had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down overall capacity utilization. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still affect short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 15650 - 16200 range, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 12520 - 13000 range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15885 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber is 12715 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 147050 lots (an increase of 3830 lots), and that of 20 - number rubber is 36890 lots (a decrease of 1963 lots). The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33638 (a decrease of 1947), and that of 20 - number rubber is - 6787 (an increase of 451) [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 167760 tons (a decrease of 160 tons), and those of 20 - number rubber are 45664 tons (a decrease of 100 tons) [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14880 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14830 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12500 yuan/ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 735 yuan/ton (an increase of 35), the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 990 yuan/ton (an increase of 70), the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13105 yuan/ton (an increase of 71), and the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 390 yuan/ton (an increase of 66) [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.98 Thai baht/kg, that of rubber sheets is 58.35 Thai baht/kg (a decrease of 0.23), that of glue is 55.6 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15), and that of cup rubber is 51.2 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15) [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 227.4 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.6), and that of STR20 is 35.8 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 2). The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons (an increase of 0.1), and that of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons (a decrease of 2.13) [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.84% (a decrease of 0.92), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.77% (a decrease of 0.36) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.22 days (a decrease of 0.54), and those of semi - steel tires are 46.14 days (a decrease of 0.91). The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces (an increase of 13), and that of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces (an increase of 174) [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.8% (a decrease of 0.22), and the historical 40 - day volatility is 18.87% (an increase of 0.3) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.61 (an increase of 0.49), and that of at - the - money put options is 22.6% (an increase of 0.46) [2]. Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main natural rubber producing areas increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; the same situation occurred in some southern hemisphere areas [2]. - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (a decrease of 0.6%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons (a decrease of 0.14%), and the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons (a decrease of 0.7%) [2]. - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97% (a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month - on - month and 8.73 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89% (a decrease of 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 5.10 percentage points year - on - year) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The utilization rate of domestic tire production capacity fluctuated slightly last week. Some large semi-steel tire enterprises had about one - week maintenance, dragging down the overall enterprise production capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, driving up the full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a slight upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,000 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both types of rubber changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex and Vietnam 3L increased by 200 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers decreased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of齐鲁石化's butadiene - styrene and cis - butadiene rubbers remained unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the price of 20 - number rubber in Qingdao market decreased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber) decreased, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 increased, while that of STR20 decreased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly opening rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires changed [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying decreased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options decreased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 17 - 23, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.50%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, with the bonded warehouse accumulating inventory and the general trade warehouse continuing to reduce inventory. The arrival and warehousing of overseas goods increased, but the tire enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,600 - 15,500 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 in the short - term [2] - Currently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port shows a slight accumulation trend, with bonded warehouses reducing inventory and general trade warehouses increasing inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude [2] - In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, towards the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was lower than expected, with a slight increase in finished product inventory. Due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,945 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 805 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 99,492 lots, down 9,387 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 47,606 lots, down 4,373 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,778 lots, down 2,201 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,048 lots, down 437 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 179,910 tons, down 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 39,716 tons, up 908 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 55 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 410 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,872 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 297 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.01 Thai baht/kg, down 1.1 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 49.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.65 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.79%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.39%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.55%, down 7.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.55%, down 7.44 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (July 27 - August 2, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with less impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on tapping operations [2] - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, up 6,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous period and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous period and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Due to rainfall in Yunnan, there is less glue, and the purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, the weather is fair, tapping operations are gradually carried out, and the output of raw materials on the island shows a seasonal increase. Affected by factors such as profit, local processing plants' enthusiasm for snapping up raw materials at high prices has increased, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [2]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to the normal level, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises tends to be stable, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, with a slight expected boost to the overall operation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,150 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,060 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 165 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 in both increased. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, etc., showed different changes. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers increased by 70 yuan/ton. The prices of butadiene - styrene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical also changed, with the price of cis - butadiene rubber increasing by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market and its main contract increased [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, showed different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.73 tons, while the monthly import volume of mixed rubber increased by 5.85 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate increasing by 0.54 percentage points and the semi - steel tire operating rate increasing by 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased, with the all - steel tire output increasing by 800,000 pieces and the semi - steel tire output increasing by 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying showed different trends, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 2.65 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility remaining unchanged. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 20 - 26, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. The rainfall in most areas in the northern hemisphere affected rubber tapping, while the rainfall in the southern hemisphere had less impact on rubber tapping. As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased by 0.18 million tons, with a decline of 0.28%. The inventory in bonded areas and general trade both decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also decreased. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises increased [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent warming macro - atmosphere has made futures prices stronger, and the basis of natural rubber has weakened slightly. The improvement of domestic latex import profit and the resumption of raw material output after the end of rain are expected to increase the output of domestic full - latex, but the downstream product demand is weak, so the fundamentals of full - latex remain weak. In July, China is in the seasonal off - season of imports, and the profit of Thai processing plants to Chinese ports is still in a loss pattern, so the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the overhaul of downstream semi - steel tires is completed, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term because of the slight decline in domestic butadiene supply and the continuous decline in domestic port inventory, which eases the supply pressure of butadiene. Meanwhile, the restart of downstream overhaul devices benefits the demand for butadiene. In the loss pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continuous rebound of cis - butadiene rubber. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week due to the reduction of overhaul devices, and the tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of double - increase in supply and demand. It is expected that cis - butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material to run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,360 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,745 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,685 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.2%. In the first half of the year, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.1% [2] - The start - up of semi - steel tire enterprises that had undergone maintenance has mostly returned to a high level. Due to the decrease in supply, under normal shipments of enterprises, there was a small shortage of some domestic sales specifications in some enterprises, which had little impact on the overall situation. The restorative increase in the capacity utilization rate of enterprises had a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - In June, the national passenger car market retailed 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 210 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,870 yuan/ton (an increase of 45.02), the NR basis was 150 yuan/ton (an increase of 17), the price of full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the STR20 was quoted at 1,745 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.29 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.08), the price of Thai latex was 54.30 baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.05 baht/kg (an increase of 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.25 baht/kg (a decrease of 0.25) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (a decrease of 0.42%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (an increase of 1.66%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (a decrease of 248), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (an increase of 4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (a decrease of 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (an increase of 7,258) [3] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (an increase of 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,300 yuan/ton (an increase of 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,550 yuan/ton (an increase of 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 959 yuan/ton (an increase of 1) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54% (a decrease of 1.44%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (a decrease of 530), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (an increase of 150) [3]