1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has started to accumulate again, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing an increase. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to experience a slight inventory build - up in the short term [2]. - Last week, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly. The semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, their capacity utilization rates remain at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has also slightly increased, and the price increase news has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, the operating rates of some enterprises are expected to remain high, but there may be flexible production adjustments by individual enterprises [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16300 - 16850 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 205 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13565 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 255 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 107227 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4547 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55398 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2164 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30266 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3929 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10117 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 323 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125410 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44554 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 605 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16600 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1990 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1985 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 845 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13651 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 153 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 86 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 102 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 75.45 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.55 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 76 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 32 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.09 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.59 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 32.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.18%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of Chinese semi - steel tires was 79.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 72.21%, a week - on - week increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The opening rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. Semi-steel tire enterprises were concentrated on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, the capacity utilization rate remained at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. Driven by price increase news, enterprises' shipments were concentrated, and the shortage phenomenon was obvious, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises aimed to complete quarterly tasks, and with unfulfilled pre-price increase orders, the opening rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,900 - 13,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,145 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 rubber was 13,055 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 rubber was -100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 rubber was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 116,891 lots, up 391 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 rubber was 58,703 lots, down 235 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -38,132 lots, down 3,126 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 rubber was -9,541 lots, down 390 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 125,440 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 rubber in the exchange were 45,763 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state-owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,955 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,950 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,030 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene-butadiene 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis-butadiene BR9000 was 16,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -145 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non-standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was -920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The price of 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,366 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 rubber was 311 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 73.9 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 70 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 74.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -32 US dollars/ton, down 19 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all-steel tires was 70.72%, up 0.5 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi-steel tires was 78.25%, up 0.54 percentage points. The inventory days of all-steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.09 days, down 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi-steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 44.59 days, up 0.75 days. The monthly output of all-steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi-steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.12%, up 0.12 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.09%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 28.37%, down 1.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 28.37%, down 1.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy truck industry in February 2026 both year-on-year and month-on-month was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival month. As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a 0.8 - ton increase from the previous period, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month-on-month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total supply of natural rubber is shrinking as the domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the northern Thailand and northern Vietnam are transitioning to reduced production and off - season. The overall inventory in Qingdao Port shows a slight de - stocking trend, with the bonded warehouse de - stocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates. The production of semi - steel tires is supported by foreign trade orders, while the full - steel tires face greater shipment pressure, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be stable but slightly weak in the short term. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 16000 - 16500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12900 - 13350 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 155 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 80 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13190 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton. The trading volume and net positions of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber also show corresponding changes [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various rubber products in the spot market have different changes. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1940 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber also shows corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber have different changes. The RSS3 theoretical production profit is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the STR20 theoretical production profit is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technical - classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, with an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, with an increase of 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 62.62% and 74.56% respectively, with the full - steel tire operating rate decreasing by 2.9 percentage points and the semi - steel tire operating rate increasing by 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.8 days and 48.53 days respectively, with corresponding increases. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with an increase of 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.57%, with a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.21%, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 22.76%, with a decrease of 1.16 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with the same period last year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, with a decrease rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory is 94,500 tons, with a decrease rate of 5.03%; the general trade inventory is 490,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.95% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate narrowing month - on - month. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas vessel arrivals, but the rubber price has risen more than expected. Downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode for replenishment, with weak purchasing sentiment, leading to continued inventory accumulation. - In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly last week. Some enterprises controlled production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment pace of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory rose, and under production and sales pressure, some enterprises had production suspension or limitation. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. - The Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread was 10 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 6,552 to 179,391 lots, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 7,922 to 3,000 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 47,737 lots, a decrease of 149 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were 1,392 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 2,660 to 96,590 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber increased by 101 to 58,061 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,880 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,875 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 58.49 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.07 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of rubber sheets was 55.49 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.1 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the reference price of cup rubber was 54.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 13.6 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 42,700 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.95%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points, and the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.05%, an increase of 0.61 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 1.87 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires was 46.86 days, an increase of 0.38 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 590,000 pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,831,000 pieces, an increase of 663,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 13.68%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.94%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.94%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared to October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared to 68,500 in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing have increased, while downstream factories are mainly digesting their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and overall outbound shipments are lower than expected. In terms of demand, last week tire companies adjusted production flexibly, some companies controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies was weak, entering the seasonal off - peak season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory climbed, and under production and sales pressure, some companies had production suspension or limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,290 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,885 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 146,529 lots, down 1,229 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,329 lots, down 1,663 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 38,999 lots, down 105 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 13,460 lots, up 1,166 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 88,730 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 735 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,952 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 2,065 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 58.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.31 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, up 35,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 12.96%, down 0.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.64%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.78%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.79%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, but the overall inventory accumulation rate has decreased by 0.73 percentage points month - on - month [2] - The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, tire companies' production capacity utilization is weakly operating, the overall shipment rhythm is slow, finished product inventory is rising, and some companies have production suspension and limitation phenomena [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,205 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,355 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 147,758 lots, with a daily increase of 2,103 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54,992 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,610 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,894 lots, with a daily increase of 608 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 14,626 lots, with a daily decrease of 8 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 88,730 tons, with a daily increase of 1,570 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 58,364 tons, with a daily decrease of 604 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 US dollars/ton [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,900 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 340 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,952 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 104 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 592 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 9 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 51.4 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, with a decrease of 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.91 days, with an increase of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.48 days, with an increase of 0.97 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.1%, with a daily increase of 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.67%, with a daily increase of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.59%, with a daily decrease of 0.59 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.59%, with a daily decrease of 0.58 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2] - As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory is 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory is 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased [2] - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has been accumulating significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing inventory build - up. Overseas ship arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, but downstream factories are flexible in production scheduling and cautious in stocking, leading to a large - scale inventory build - up at the port [2] - Last week, some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The all - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate increased. This week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually return to normal operation, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase, but the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises at the beginning of the month will limit the increase [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,100 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,500 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 58,055 lots, a decrease of 4,907 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 39,260 lots, a decrease of 3,018 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,075 lots, a decrease of 595 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 9,285 lots, a decrease of 978 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 41,400 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 51,710 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,825 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,949 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 719 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 59.55 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.36 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 57.15 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 148.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 27 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.2 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly all - steel tire start - up rate was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire start - up rate was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.02%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.31%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.87%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.87%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 6% decrease from October and a 46% increase from 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 10 million vehicles, reaching 10.3 million, a 26% increase year - on - year [2] - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a 2.71% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, a 0.69% increase; the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, a 3.07% increase [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a 3.36 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period and a 13.64 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a 0.71 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 2.68 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, improved weather and continuous raw material supply pressure support a slight price increase. In Hainan, with better weather, tapping operations resume, and raw material supply shows a seasonal increase. Some processors' raw material replenishment enthusiasm increases due to improved profits and orders [2]. - Recently, Qingdao port's natural rubber inventory continues to decline, though the decline rate slows. The inflow increases while the outflow increase is moderate. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement is relatively mild, and they continue the on - demand procurement rhythm. Short - term Qingdao port inventory is expected to continue a slight decline [2]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably last week, but some had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down overall capacity utilization. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still affect short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 15650 - 16200 range, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 12520 - 13000 range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15885 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber is 12715 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 147050 lots (an increase of 3830 lots), and that of 20 - number rubber is 36890 lots (a decrease of 1963 lots). The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33638 (a decrease of 1947), and that of 20 - number rubber is - 6787 (an increase of 451) [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 167760 tons (a decrease of 160 tons), and those of 20 - number rubber are 45664 tons (a decrease of 100 tons) [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14880 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14830 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12500 yuan/ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 735 yuan/ton (an increase of 35), the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 990 yuan/ton (an increase of 70), the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13105 yuan/ton (an increase of 71), and the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 390 yuan/ton (an increase of 66) [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.98 Thai baht/kg, that of rubber sheets is 58.35 Thai baht/kg (a decrease of 0.23), that of glue is 55.6 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15), and that of cup rubber is 51.2 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15) [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 227.4 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.6), and that of STR20 is 35.8 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 2). The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons (an increase of 0.1), and that of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons (a decrease of 2.13) [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.84% (a decrease of 0.92), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.77% (a decrease of 0.36) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.22 days (a decrease of 0.54), and those of semi - steel tires are 46.14 days (a decrease of 0.91). The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces (an increase of 13), and that of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces (an increase of 174) [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.8% (a decrease of 0.22), and the historical 40 - day volatility is 18.87% (an increase of 0.3) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.61 (an increase of 0.49), and that of at - the - money put options is 22.6% (an increase of 0.46) [2]. Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main natural rubber producing areas increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; the same situation occurred in some southern hemisphere areas [2]. - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (a decrease of 0.6%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons (a decrease of 0.14%), and the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons (a decrease of 0.7%) [2]. - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97% (a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month - on - month and 8.73 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89% (a decrease of 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 5.10 percentage points year - on - year) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The utilization rate of domestic tire production capacity fluctuated slightly last week. Some large semi-steel tire enterprises had about one - week maintenance, dragging down the overall enterprise production capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, driving up the full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a slight upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,000 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both types of rubber changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex and Vietnam 3L increased by 200 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers decreased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of齐鲁石化's butadiene - styrene and cis - butadiene rubbers remained unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the price of 20 - number rubber in Qingdao market decreased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber) decreased, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 increased, while that of STR20 decreased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly opening rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires changed [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying decreased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options decreased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 17 - 23, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.50%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, with the bonded warehouse accumulating inventory and the general trade warehouse continuing to reduce inventory. The arrival and warehousing of overseas goods increased, but the tire enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2].