橡胶：多单持有 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（12.8—12.12） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场探低回升，下方支撑较为强烈 市场有突破迹象 多单持有 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 24 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14950 元/吨，较上周上涨 300 元/吨。 青岛保税区烟片胶报价 2100 美元/吨，较上周上涨 30 美元/吨。 上海地区 BR9000 报价 10850 元/吨，较上周上涨 275 元/吨。 三、库存情况回顾 本周上期所库存增加，小计库存增加 12324 吨至 105542 吨，期货库存增加 11460 吨至 56990 吨。 青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加，库存连续增加，这会给价格上涨带来压 力。 四、市场结构 本周基差略走强，因现货上涨幅度更大。 五、预测及操作策略 本周天胶天胶回落，技术形态再次走坏。 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market for high cis-butadiene rubber has shown limited price fluctuations recently, with expectations for a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term [1] Price Trends - The current spot prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,300 - 11,400 yuan/ton, while in South China, the price is consistently at 11,400 yuan/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures market has experienced a range of fluctuations, with improved trading in the raw material butadiene, leading to an upward price exploration by suppliers [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of butadiene rubber is ample, with buyers primarily inquiring based on immediate needs and engaging in low-price transactions, resulting in minimal changes in trading focus [1] - The expectation for today’s high cis-butadiene rubber market is a narrow range of price consolidation, supported by the strong pricing of butadiene [1] Future Outlook - Despite the supportive pricing from the butadiene market, the overall market is expected to face challenges due to abundant supply and insufficient release of downstream tire production capacity, leading to cautious purchasing and price negotiations [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, it is believed that the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [2][3][7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Review - The RU2509 contract opened at 13870, reached a high of 14100, a low of 13705, and closed at 13900, with a gain of +0.18%. The NR2508 contract opened at 12030, reached a high of 12315, a low of 11755, and closed at 12010, with a loss of - 0.08%. The BR2507 contract opened at 11420, reached a high of 11915, a low of 11270, and closed at 11630, with a gain of +2.11% [3]. - The market rose first and then fell this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, causing the price to decline [3]. Spot Market Review - The price of 23 - year state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 13950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2300 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 11875 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week [4]. Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed changes this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2747 tons to 212714 tons, while the futures inventory decreased by 230 tons to 192840 tons [5]. Market Structure The basis this week decreased slightly compared with last week. Since the spot price increased more, the spot is still at a premium to the futures [6]. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The Thai raw material prices continued to rise this week, with cup rubber leading the market. - The operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded, with a larger rebound in the all - steel tire sector. In terms of tire enterprise inventory, the semi - steel tire inventory increased, while the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged. - The sudden stimulus effect of the rise in crude oil prices caused by the Middle East situation on commodities is starting to fade, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [7].