Core Viewpoint - The market for high cis-butadiene rubber has shown limited price fluctuations recently, with expectations for a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term [1] Price Trends - The current spot prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,300 - 11,400 yuan/ton, while in South China, the price is consistently at 11,400 yuan/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures market has experienced a range of fluctuations, with improved trading in the raw material butadiene, leading to an upward price exploration by suppliers [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of butadiene rubber is ample, with buyers primarily inquiring based on immediate needs and engaging in low-price transactions, resulting in minimal changes in trading focus [1] - The expectation for today’s high cis-butadiene rubber market is a narrow range of price consolidation, supported by the strong pricing of butadiene [1] Future Outlook - Despite the supportive pricing from the butadiene market, the overall market is expected to face challenges due to abundant supply and insufficient release of downstream tire production capacity, leading to cautious purchasing and price negotiations [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, it is believed that the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [2][3][7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Review - The RU2509 contract opened at 13870, reached a high of 14100, a low of 13705, and closed at 13900, with a gain of +0.18%. The NR2508 contract opened at 12030, reached a high of 12315, a low of 11755, and closed at 12010, with a loss of - 0.08%. The BR2507 contract opened at 11420, reached a high of 11915, a low of 11270, and closed at 11630, with a gain of +2.11% [3]. - The market rose first and then fell this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, causing the price to decline [3]. Spot Market Review - The price of 23 - year state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 13950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2300 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 11875 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week [4]. Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed changes this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2747 tons to 212714 tons, while the futures inventory decreased by 230 tons to 192840 tons [5]. Market Structure The basis this week decreased slightly compared with last week. Since the spot price increased more, the spot is still at a premium to the futures [6]. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The Thai raw material prices continued to rise this week, with cup rubber leading the market. - The operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded, with a larger rebound in the all - steel tire sector. In terms of tire enterprise inventory, the semi - steel tire inventory increased, while the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged. - The sudden stimulus effect of the rise in crude oil prices caused by the Middle East situation on commodities is starting to fade, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [7].