Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints -节前 trading volume weakened, and the fundamentals of butadiene rubber (BR) are becoming more relaxed. In the short term, there will be a phased correction, but in the medium to long term, there are still expectations for butadiene exports and overseas capacity clearance. Investors should pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] Summary by Directory Market Review - As of February 5, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton. Due to the expected decline in downstream demand for butadiene and the expected increase in domestic supply, the high production cost pressure of BR has been slightly relieved. The production capacity utilization rate of BR has recovered to a high level. Before the Spring Festival, the futures price of synthetic rubber dropped significantly, and the market bearish sentiment increased slightly [4] Price Tables - **China's BR9000 Ex - factory and Market Prices**: On February 6, 2026, most ex - factory prices of BR9000 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to February 5, with a decline of 1.54%. Some market prices increased slightly, with an increase of 0.39% - 1.22% [7] - **China's Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain Prices**: The prices of butadiene, BR, and styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) showed different degrees of changes. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene from Dalian Hengli decreased by 200 yuan/ton on February 6 compared to February 5, with a decline of 1.92% [8] Correlation Analysis - The price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties have certain correlations. For example, the correlation coefficient between BR and butadiene is 0.90 in the 1 - month period, indicating a strong positive correlation [9] Device Conditions - **Butadiene Devices**: Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical have been shut down, while some devices like Sinochem Quanzhou and Hainan Refining have restarted, affecting the weekly output [3][10] - **High - cis BR Devices**: Most BR devices are operating normally, but some have maintenance plans in different quarters [11] Spread and Basis Analysis - **BR Spread**: The RU - BR spread is 3290 yuan/ton, and the NR - BR spread is 260 yuan/ton. The BR - SC ratio is - 0.34% [3] - **BR Basis**: The basis of BR in North China is - 440 yuan/ton, in East China is - 340 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 390 yuan/ton [3] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and BR is expected to increase. The production capacity utilization rate of BR has reached a high level [3] - **Demand**: The demand for semi - steel tires and all - steel tires is weak. The inventory consumption is slow, and the downstream procurement intention is mostly postponed to after the Spring Festival [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene and BR has decreased. The overall inventory of butadiene shows no obvious signs of pressure, and the inventory of BR production and trading enterprises has decreased [3] Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to be volatile. In the short term, there will be a phased correction, but in the long term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the main idea is to go long at low prices and grasp the market and capital rhythm. For arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR/RU. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, while BR is rated cautiously bullish [11] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the weakening of RU basis and small fluctuations in NR basis indicate poor demand for full latex. The widening of the RU-NR spread is related to the domestic harvest suspension and the overseas peak season. The weak follow - up of RU spot prices may suppress the upward space of futures prices. With limited fundamental changes, domestic harvest suspension, and strong cost support, but insufficient supply - demand drivers, the domestic market will continue to accumulate inventory [11] - For cis - butadiene rubber, with some upstream plants under maintenance, supply is expected to remain abundant. During the New Year's Day holiday, downstream tire operating rates may decline. Although there is a short - term inventory accumulation pressure, the cost support from upstream butadiene is expected to keep the price of cis - butadiene rubber strong [11] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,665 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced full latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import Volume - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Supply and Demand - According to the ANRPC November 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in November was expected to drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to drop 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] Tire Market - The semi - steel all - season tire market had relatively sufficient supply, with the market mainly digesting previous inventory and the shipment rhythm slowing down. There was a shortage of some specifications, but weak demand suppressed the purchasing sentiment. The semi - steel snow tire channels had sufficient inventory and were in the terminal inventory reduction stage, waiting for more snowfall to release replacement demand. Overall, the market transactions were dull, and prices were weak [2] Vehicle Sales - In November 2025, the heavy - truck sales volume was 113,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - truck market this year [3] - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a new record [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On December 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 415 yuan/ton (+65), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 965 yuan/ton (-35), the NR basis was 522.00 yuan/ton (+50.00); the full latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (-50), the mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton (-80), the 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,875 US dollars/ton (-5), the spread between the full latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,300 yuan/ton (-80) [5] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheets were 58.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.01), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.10 Thai baht/kg (-0.10) [6] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.69% (-1.92%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.36% (+0.35%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 524,846 tons (+9,619), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+29,327), the RU futures inventory was 93,930 tons (+6,770), and the NR futures inventory was 57,960 tons (-1,008) [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spread - On December 29, 2025, the BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (+235), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+200), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,300 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (+150), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,000 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 931 yuan/ton (+184) [8] Operating Rates - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.77% (+0.51%) [9] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,690 tons (-720), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,850 tons (+1,250) [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral. [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic natural rubber price is weak, with the spot price of tire rubber slowing down. Domestic port and social inventories are continuously increasing. The cost - side support for natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is likely to increase. The increase in domestic port inventory and the off - season of downstream demand make it difficult for the tire factory's operating rate to rise, and the inventory accumulation is expected to continue. [11] - For BR, upstream maintenance is relatively less, and the supply will remain abundant. Downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. However, the upstream raw material cost support may continue, and the butadiene price is expected to remain firm. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,205 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,355 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,230 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton. [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. [1] Market Information - In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98%. [2] - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales were 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%. In the same month, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.1% and 3.2%, and year - on - year increases of 2.8% and 3.4%. [3] - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 355 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 735 yuan/ton (+ 15), the NR basis was 595.00 yuan/ton (+ 9.00). [5] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.31), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup rubber was 50.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), and the spread between Thai glue and cup rubber was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00). [6] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.61% (- 0.94%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.01% (- 0.13%). [7] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 515,227 tons (+ 16,339), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,152,918 tons (+ 29,512), the RU futures inventory was 87,160 tons (+ 30,170), and the NR futures inventory was 58,968 tons (- 605). [7] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On December 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 380 yuan/ton (- 60), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,800 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,550 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 896 yuan/ton (+ 51). [8] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 76.26% (+ 5.58%). [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,410 tons (+ 960), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,600 tons (+ 1,100). [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in rubber futures [1][2][7] 2. Core View - The rubber market showed a trend of hitting a low and then rebounding this week, with strong support below and signs of a potential breakthrough. It is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [2][3][7] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market Review - RU2605 opened at 15,085, reached a high of 15,350, a low of 14,960, and closed at 15,230, up 1.1%. NR2602 opened at 12,025, reached a high of 12,430, a low of 12,025, and closed at 12,330, up 2.41%. BR2602 opened at 10,400, reached a high of 10,795, a low of 10,365, and closed at 10,720, up 2.73%. The natural rubber market hit a low and then rebounded, with active buying at lower prices. The Central Economic Work Conference on Friday released positive information. Although the price was suppressed by the moving average on the technical chart, there were signs of a breakthrough [3] Spot Market Review - The price of 2024 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week. The price of smoked sheets in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,100 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 10,850 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton from last week [4] Inventory Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 12,324 tons to 105,542 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 11,460 tons to 56,990 tons. The inventory in Qingdao increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, which may put pressure on price increases [5] Market Structure - The basis strengthened slightly this week because the spot price increased more [5] Forecast and Operation Strategy - The natural rubber price declined this week, and the technical pattern deteriorated again. The raw material prices in Thailand varied this week, with smoked sheets falling and cup rubber and latex rising. The operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded, and their inventories increased. The natural rubber market is in a seasonal bullish pattern, with domestic rubber tapping gradually stopping and strong downstream demand. The bearish sentiment caused by the decline in tire exports was offset by the positive information released by the Central Economic Work Conference. Downstream buying was active. Although the price was suppressed by the moving average on the technical chart, there were signs of a breakthrough. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market for high cis-butadiene rubber has shown limited price fluctuations recently, with expectations for a narrow range of price adjustments in the short term [1] Price Trends - The current spot prices for BR9000 in North and East China are around 11,300 - 11,400 yuan/ton, while in South China, the price is consistently at 11,400 yuan/ton [1] - The synthetic rubber futures market has experienced a range of fluctuations, with improved trading in the raw material butadiene, leading to an upward price exploration by suppliers [1] Market Dynamics - The supply of butadiene rubber is ample, with buyers primarily inquiring based on immediate needs and engaging in low-price transactions, resulting in minimal changes in trading focus [1] - The expectation for today’s high cis-butadiene rubber market is a narrow range of price consolidation, supported by the strong pricing of butadiene [1] Future Outlook - Despite the supportive pricing from the butadiene market, the overall market is expected to face challenges due to abundant supply and insufficient release of downstream tire production capacity, leading to cautious purchasing and price negotiations [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, it is believed that the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [2][3][7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Review - The RU2509 contract opened at 13870, reached a high of 14100, a low of 13705, and closed at 13900, with a gain of +0.18%. The NR2508 contract opened at 12030, reached a high of 12315, a low of 11755, and closed at 12010, with a loss of - 0.08%. The BR2507 contract opened at 11420, reached a high of 11915, a low of 11270, and closed at 11630, with a gain of +2.11% [3]. - The market rose first and then fell this week, remaining in a volatile trend. The premium effect of external market emergencies is gradually dissipating, causing the price to decline [3]. Spot Market Review - The price of 23 - year state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 13950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2300 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 11875 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week [4]. Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed changes this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2747 tons to 212714 tons, while the futures inventory decreased by 230 tons to 192840 tons [5]. Market Structure The basis this week decreased slightly compared with last week. Since the spot price increased more, the spot is still at a premium to the futures [6]. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The Thai raw material prices continued to rise this week, with cup rubber leading the market. - The operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded, with a larger rebound in the all - steel tire sector. In terms of tire enterprise inventory, the semi - steel tire inventory increased, while the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged. - The sudden stimulus effect of the rise in crude oil prices caused by the Middle East situation on commodities is starting to fade, and the rubber price has declined accordingly. Considering the absolute price and seasonal cycle, the market is more likely to maintain a small - scale oscillation, and short - term operations are recommended [7].