来源：东方证券股份有限公司 研究结论 2026 年资产配置有一长一短两个挑战。中长期来看，我国进入低利率时期，过去很长时间在我国资产 配置中发挥重要作用的股债对冲效果将不及过往。短期来看，过去几年我国进入新旧动能切换，投资者 风险偏好向两端走。及至当前，海内外对我国国家治理能力的信心与日俱增，经济和通胀数据仍有待修 复但我国科技产业发展的态势欣欣向荣，悲观者修正预期，乐观者更加理性，投资者风险偏好正在从两 端向中间回归。 低利率背景下资产配置关注增收和降波。增收主要通过拓宽两类资产，降波主要用好三项工具。许多成 熟市场都曾经历过低利率阶段，以长期业绩亮眼的耶鲁捐赠基金和桥水基金为例，可见拓展海外资产和 另类资产是低利率时期实现增收的重要途径。但资产类型的拓展不可避免会带来不确定性上行，从而需 要通过风险对冲、风险转嫁、风险规避等手段进行更精细化的风险管理。 风偏回归背景下关注低波策略加弹性、高波策略控风险。前者包括固收类资产关注境内交易机会和境外 票息机会，权益资产从红利逐渐转向中盘蓝筹，其他资产关注黄金等商品机会；后者主要包括海外资产 从美股向其他国家适当分散，A 股将部分科技转向中盘蓝筹，组合层面关注商品 ...

Group 1 - Japanese investors have significantly withdrawn from overseas stock and bond markets due to concerns over the US economic outlook and renewed tariff tensions, with a net sale of 752.1 billion yen in overseas stocks for the week ending August 2, reversing two weeks of net buying [1] - The MSCI World Index experienced a sharp decline of 2.54%, marking its largest drop in three months, primarily influenced by disappointing US non-farm payroll data and new tariffs imposed by President Trump on multiple countries [1] - The US non-farm payroll increased by 73,000 in July, with a downward revision of 258,000 for May and June combined, while Trump signed an executive order on July 31 to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries and regions [1] Group 2 - Japanese investors also reduced their holdings in foreign long-term bonds, with a net sale of 526.3 billion yen for the second consecutive week [2] - Foreign investors showed decreased interest in the Japanese stock market, with net investment of approximately 193 billion yen, the lowest level in six weeks [2] - Despite recent capital outflows, Japan's overall investment enthusiasm in overseas markets remains strong, with cumulative investments of 3.37 trillion yen this year, contrasting sharply with a net sale of 915.8 billion yen during the same period last year [2] - In the domestic bond market, foreign capital outflow pressure has eased, with net outflow from the long-term bond market dropping to 87.5 billion yen, while the short-term bill market saw a net inflow of 1.2 trillion yen, reversing a previous outflow of 1.95 trillion yen [2]

Core Insights - Japanese investors have sold over $20 billion in overseas bonds within two weeks due to the U.S. announcement of increased tariffs, marking the largest concentrated sell-off of foreign bonds by Japanese investors in 20 years [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The sell-off includes $17.5 billion in long-term foreign bonds sold by private institutions (including banks and pension funds) in the week ending April 4, followed by an additional $3.6 billion in the subsequent week [1] - This event represents one of the largest capital withdrawals since comparable data became available in 2005 [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Holdings - Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities globally, with public and private sectors combined holding approximately $1.1 trillion in U.S. debt [1]