3Q25 业绩符合我们预期 海康威视公布2025 三季报：前三季度公司实现营收657.58 亿元，同比增长1.18%；实现归母净利润 93.19 亿元，同比增长14.94%；扣非归母净利润89.71 亿元，同比增长10.06%，符合我们此前预期。对 应到3Q25 单季度，公司实现营收239.40 亿元，同比增长0.66%；实现归母净利润36.62 亿元，同比增长 20.31%；扣非归母净利润34.82 亿元，同比增长19.73%。 发展趋势 经济下行风险，中美贸易摩擦加剧风险，技术更新迭代风险。 收入端维持平稳，看好海外及创新业务。国内主业方面，公司积极围绕经济中的亮点寻找业务机会，如 政府端的交通行业，企业端的电子电器/石化煤炭/智慧商贸/电力央企等行业；在产品侧，公司加大AI 大模型相关的技术投入，推动产品落地；SMBG 营收同比降幅已收窄至个位数。境外主业方面，剔除 美国/加拿大、印度市场的影响，其他地区前三季度的收入增速仍保持在两位数。此外，创新业务仍保 持快速增长，海康机器人、海康汽车电子、海康睿影等板块实现较高增速。 盈利能力与现金流大幅改善，经营质量持续提升。公司坚定执行"以利润为中心"的经营策 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold market is driven by "reserve value" rather than "trading value," with central banks increasing gold reserves as a safeguard against the weakening trust in the US dollar [6][7][10] - Since 2016, there have been three significant expansions in the cracks of dollar credit, correlating with major surges in gold prices [6][8][9] - The World Gold Council reports that 95% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, indicating strong support for gold prices [7] Group 2: Hikvision (002415.SZ) Performance - Hikvision's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 657.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.18%, with a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan, up 14.94% [17][19] - The company is focusing on domestic business opportunities and has seen a narrowing decline in its SMBG business, with a significant increase in cash flow [18][19] - Future revenue projections for Hikvision are 950.36 billion yuan, 1,022.84 billion yuan, and 1,121.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 140.40 billion yuan, 155.57 billion yuan, and 173.44 billion yuan respectively [19] Group 3: Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ) Performance - Siyuan Electric reported a revenue of 138.27 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a 32.86% increase, with a net profit of 21.91 billion yuan, up 46.94% [21][22] - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively preparing for increased business demand, with inventory rising by 44.58% [21][22] - Future net profit projections for Siyuan Electric are 29.03 billion yuan, 37.32 billion yuan, and 48.05 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 3.72, 4.78, and 6.15 yuan [22] Group 4: Fuyao Glass (600660.SH) Performance - Fuyao Glass achieved a revenue of 333.0 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 17.6% increase, with a net profit of 70.6 billion yuan, up 28.9% [24][26] - The company is experiencing a transition in management, which is expected to support its strategic development [25][26] - Future revenue projections for Fuyao Glass are 460 billion yuan, 525 billion yuan, and 608 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 94 billion yuan, 106 billion yuan, and 124 billion yuan respectively [26] Group 5: Tunan Co. (688231.SH) Performance - Tunan Co. reported a revenue of 8.59 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 20.5%, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, down 52.2% [28][29] - The company is in a phase of investment and production ramp-up, which has temporarily affected profitability [28][29] - Future revenue projections for Tunan Co. are 15.2 billion yuan, 20.6 billion yuan, and 25.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to be 2.8 billion yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 5.3 billion yuan respectively [29] Group 6: Cangge Mining (000408.SZ) Performance - Cangge Mining achieved a revenue of 24.01 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 3.35% increase, with a net profit of 27.51 billion yuan, up 47.26% [31][32] - The growth in Q3 was notable despite the suspension of lithium carbonate production, driven by copper and potassium chloride businesses [31][32] - Future EPS projections for Cangge Mining are 2.19, 3.12, and 3.96 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 18, and 15 [33]

公司点评 | 海康威视 归母净利润与现金流超预期，经营质量持续提升 海康威视（002415.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 657.58 亿元（同比+1.18%），归母净利润 93.19 亿元（同比+14.94%）。 公司积极寻找境内主业相关业务机会，境外主业与创新业务保持平稳较快增 长。分业务来看：（1）境内主业：公司积极根据宏观经济形势调整组织架构 和资源配置，围绕经济中的亮点寻找业务机会，如 PBG 的交通行业，EBG 的电子电器、石化煤炭、智慧商贸、电力央企等行业。此外，SMBG 第三季 度的营收同比降幅已收窄至个位数（25H1 公司 SMBG 业务同比下滑 29.75%），其毛利额和扣费毛利额（分部利润）均已实现同比正增长。（2） 境外主业：在动荡的国际贸易秩序下，尽管境外主业整体收入增速环比有所 放缓，但除美国、加拿大、印度三个市场外，其他地区前三季度的收入增速 仍保持两位数。（3）创新业务：受益于汽车、锂电、电子电器和物流、交通 等下游行业需求的拉动，海康机器人、海康汽车电子、海康睿影等创新业务 均实现了较高的收入增速。 ...