Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are running weakly, and the PX market has few transactions. Polyester downstream procurement stagnated during the holiday. The Asian naphtha crack spread was stable during the holiday, the spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to $132, continuing to support PX short - process profits. The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widened to $185, but there was no news of shipments from South Korea to the US. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has declined. The domestic PTA basis has quickly declined, and demand has not significantly increased. The polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. Due to the weak crude oil, PTA has shown weakness. Bottle chips and staple fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4500, a decrease of 35; MEG inner - market price decreased from 4275 to 4224, a decrease of 51; PTA closing price decreased from 4594 to 4584, a decrease of 10; MEG closing price decreased from 4207 to 4158, a decrease of 49 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6465 to 6460, a decrease of 5; short - fiber basis increased from 129 to 137, an increase of 8; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 22 to 0, a decrease of 22 [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market prices declined. The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all decreased by 46, and the outer - market water bottle chips decreased from 760 to 755, a decrease of 5 [2] Cash Flows and Processing Fees - Polyester staple - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 502 to 503, an increase of 1.01; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3835 to 3840, an increase of 5; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1566 to 1586, an increase of 20.32; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 510 to 537, an increase of 27.01 [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased slightly from 94.40% to 93.90%; polyester staple - fiber sales ratio increased from 57.00% to 67.00%, an increase of 10.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased slightly from 51.50% to 51.00% [3] Other Prices - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation - large - chemical spread decreased from 940 to 935, a decrease of 5; T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350; cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14500, a decrease of 45; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7020 to 7000, a decrease of 20; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7350 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for chemical fibers is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in short fiber futures, which have seen a slight decline of 1.62% to 6326.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Market Dynamics - New Lake Futures indicates that both spot and traders are maintaining profit margins while selling, with downstream pricing at lower levels and acceptable transaction volumes. The mainstream negotiation range for semi-dull 1.4D is between 6350 and 6700 yuan/ton [1] - Southwest Futures reports an improvement in sales of polyester yarn, with downstream weaving and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang operating at load rates of 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Raw material inventory levels are cautiously optimistic, with a concentration of 10-20 days, while some factories have inventory exceeding one month [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, as of August 28, the equity inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China stands at 6.86 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous period. Physical inventory is at 14.42 days, up by 0.66 days [1] Future Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that short fiber prices have slightly retreated after an initial rise, indicating that the overall strength of the polyester sector remains insufficient. Seasonal improvements in terminal orders are noted, with a slight rebound in short fiber production and limited inventory accumulation. However, further observation is needed regarding the sustainability of terminal order recovery and its impact on production increases, suggesting limited upward potential in the near term [1]

Supply and Demand - As of July 18, some factories have reduced production, leading to a decline in short fiber operating rates to approximately 89.5%, a decrease of 2.8% [3] - Downstream demand for polyester yarn is weak, with reduced orders for sewing thread and an accelerated pace of inventory accumulation in factories [3] - Polyester-cotton yarn sales remain stable, but inventory levels are high [3] Profitability - As of July 22, the cash processing fee for short fibers is around 987 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for PF2509 and PF2510 contracts are 895 CNY/ton and 960 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Market Outlook - Despite short fiber factories planning production cuts in July, weak terminal demand, high temperatures, and elevated finished goods inventory are leading to increased production cuts among downstream yarn factories [4] - The overall supply and demand for short fibers are weak, with no significant drivers, and absolute prices are fluctuating with raw material prices [4] - The processing fee for PF contracts is expected to fluctuate within the range of 800-1100 CNY/ton, with limited upward or downward drivers [4] Spot Market - On July 22, the short-term futures for direct-spun polyester saw a slight increase, with factory quotes remaining stable and transactions being negotiated at discounts [1] - The average sales rate for direct-spun polyester was 55% by 3:00 PM, with some factories reporting rates of 70%, 20%, 50%, and others [1]