期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 29 日 对二甲苯：高位震荡市 PTA：油价回调，估值回落 MEG：短期震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6618 | 4614 | 4069 | 6250 | 462.7 | | 涨跌 | -8 | -2 | -40 | 8 | -6.2 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.97% | 0.13% | -1.32% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -14 | -62 | -83 | -28 | -3.3 | | 前日收盘价 | -26 | -60 | -83 | -30 | -3.4 | | 涨跌 | 12 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 0.1 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【10月22日直纺涤短市场行情及展望】10月22日，受原料上涨带动，直纺涤短期货大幅跟涨。现货方 面，工厂早盘以走货为主，报价维稳，随着成交好转，下午部分工厂优惠缩小。贸易商成交两极分化， 基差点价成交少，一口价成交顺畅。下午部分期现商买货套盘面，期货有所回落。截至下午3:00，直纺 涤短平均产销138%。 利润方面，10月22日，短纤现货加工费至1185元/吨附近，PF2512盘面加工费至 981元/吨，PF2601盘面加工费至983元/吨。 供需方面，截至10月17日，直纺涤短负荷持稳至94.3%附 近。下游纯涤纱及涤棉纱报价维持，成交商谈，销售一般。 行情展望显示，目前短纤供应维持高位， 下游纱线负荷有所提升，纺织银十旺季延续。贸易商持货量减少，低价惜售，节后短纤工厂库存压力不 大，短期价格支撑偏强，成本端支撑也转强。预计短期短纤绝对价格震荡偏强。策略上，单边同PTA； 盘面加工费在800 - 1100区间震荡，1000偏上做缩为主。 ...

一位中国经纪人表示，价格上涨很大程度上是由情绪驱动的，并引用了中国 PX 生产可能减少供应的消 息。 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 对二甲苯：下方空间有限 PTA：下方空间有限 MEG：需求预期好转，短期有反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 6332 | 4414 | 4004 | 6070 | 437.7 | | | 涨跌 | 64 | 30 | 1 | 42 | 1.9 | | | 涨跌幅 | 1.02% | 0.68% | 0.02% | 0.70% | 0.44% | | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | | 昨日收盘价 | -30 | -66 | -83 | -8 | -3. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse calendar spread for 1 - 5 months [1] 2. Core Views - PX: After the holiday, the polyester industry chain's production and sales remained sluggish. Due to the continuous high - temperature affected by the subtropical high in the south, the start - up time of autumn and winter orders was later than usual. The inventory of polyester filament accumulated again after the holiday, and the industry chain was in a negative feedback pattern. With the overnight decline in oil prices, PX valuation is weak [8]. - PTA: After the holiday, the maintenance of Hengli's 1 unit was implemented, but the supply in the East China region was still in excess. There were still pressures on domestic and export demand for textiles and clothing, and the market was waiting for the repair of autumn and winter orders [8]. - MEG: After the holiday, the operation of coal - based ethylene glycol plants resumed. Regarding oil - based plants, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - stop, and the subsequent resumption time should be monitored. During the National Day holiday, the port arrivals were high, and the inventory accumulated by about 80 thousand tons after the holiday. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and the short - term trend remains weak [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 1.13 - million - ton PX unit in South Korea and a 0.55 - million - ton PX unit in Malaysia restarted around early October. A 0.26 - million - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory was shut down for maintenance as planned in early October, expected to last until the end of November [1]. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the Northeast started planned maintenance today. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA unit in the East China region reduced its load to 50 - 60% around October 7. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 74.4%. According to the calculation of PTA unit daily output / (domestic PTA production capacity / 365), the current PTA operating rate is around 80.2% [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was about 507 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 98 thousand tons. From October 9 to October 12, the planned arrivals at the main ports totaled about 80 thousand tons. As of October 9, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.08% (a month - on - month increase of 2.00%) [6]. Polyester Production and Sales - Polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang: Today's production and sales were highly differentiated. As of around 3:30 pm, the average production and sales were estimated at about 50%. During the National Day - Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the overall production and sales were light, with an eight - day average of about 30% [7]. - Direct - spun polyester staple fiber: As of around 3:00 pm, the average production and sales were 67% [7]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures decreased by - 0.12%, - 0.22%, - 1.16%, 0.25%, and - 1.81% respectively [1]. - Spot: The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton, 45 yuan/ton, and 61 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars/ton, the PTA processing fee decreased by 4.44 yuan/ton, and the short - fiber processing fee increased by 38.73 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The crude oil market has become pessimistic after OPEC+ plans to increase production, and traders generally expect lower oil prices. PX valuation has weakened, but the supply-demand pattern is tight due to upcoming new PTA plant launches and high polyester factory operation rates. It is recommended to partially close positions and focus on long PX short Brent. For PX, 11-01 calendar spread is in contango, and 1-5 is in backwardation. Also, for 01/05, long PX short PTA is suggested [10]. - For PTA, the cost side is weakening, and the valuation has declined. The support for PTA processing margin is weak. Despite the high polyester operation rate, PTA is in a destocking pattern, but there is significant future supply pressure. It is advisable to continue monitoring the 11-01 contango position and the PTA01/05 processing margin compression position [10]. - The market is focusing on the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. The 01 contract faces significant pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 1-5 backwardation. Near - month spot has low inventory and strong basis. The unilateral price is in a weak and volatile market [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6778, 4688, 4302, 6370, and 489.2 respectively. The price changes were 6770, -10, -17, 6, and 3, with percentage changes of 0.12%, -0.21%, -0.39%, 0.09%, and 0.62% [2]. - The 11-1 spread of PX was 60, PTA 11-1 was -14, MEG 1-5 was -48, PF 11-12 was 14, and SC 11-12 was 1.7 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot price of PX CFR China was 838.33 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 4620 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 4422 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 604 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 66.3 dollars/barrel [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 233.75 dollars/ton, PTA processing margin was 131.77 yuan/ton, short - fiber processing margin was 208.61 yuan/ton, bottle - chip processing margin was 69.09 yuan/ton, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was -6.01 dollars/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price declined slightly. PX prices were stable, with some spot transactions. The supply from the Middle East is limited due to strong gasoline demand. China's Fujia Dahua plans to shut down its 700,000 - ton/year No. 2 PX production line for maintenance [4][6]. - PTA: Some PTA plants in China restarted, and the PTA load reached 76.8%. A 110 - million - ton PTA plant in South China plans to conduct maintenance in mid - to - late October [7]. - MEG: The overall operating load in China was 74.91%, with the syngas - to - MEG operating load at 76.69%. An Xinjiang 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - MEG plant shut down, and an Iranian 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant is restarting [7][8]. - Polyester: The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%, and the overall polyester load in China reached about 91.6%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were mixed [8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG were all 0, indicating a neutral view [9].

Report Investment Rating - PX: Long PX short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [7] - PTA: Long PTA short MEG, long PTA 11 - contract short PX [8] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG, 09 - 01 calendar spread long, avoid chasing long positions above 4550 [9] Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with prices having a short - term pullback. The PTA price is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while the MEG price is in a sideways market [7][8][9] Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力合约昨日收盘价6878，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.12%；月差PX9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 108，较前日跌156 [1] - PTA主力合约昨日收盘价4784，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.17%；月差PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 62，较前日跌6 [1] - MEG主力合约昨日收盘价4466，涨跌1，涨跌幅0.02%；月差MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 37，较前日涨4 [1] Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格848.67美元/吨，较前日持平 [1] - PTA华东昨日价格4740元/吨，较前日跌35 [1] - MEG现货昨日价格4534元/吨，较前日涨9 [1] Processing Margin - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格254.79，较前日跌9 [1] - PTA加工费昨日价格221.67，较前日跌29.59 [1] Market Dynamics Summary - PX现货价格因缺乏多空驱动因素保持不变，看跌的原油情绪限制亚洲PX价格涨幅，且美国关税政策引发消费者价格通胀担忧 [1][2] - 9月初聚酯装置有开停变化，江浙涤丝29号产销整体偏弱，直纺涤短销售一般 [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX趋势强度为1，PTA趋势强度为1，MEG趋势强度为0 [6] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - 亚洲其他地区对二甲苯开工率75.6%（ - 0.7%），国产PX装置开工率83.3%（ - 1.3%），9月福佳大化70计划检修，福化集团160计划重启，供应边际回升 [7] PTA - PTA负荷70.4%（ - 1.2%），恒力惠州装置意外停车后转为去库格局，但工厂套保盘压制盘面，基差回落，聚酯开工90.3%（ + 0.3%） [8] MEG - MEG装置开工率75.1%（ + 2%），港口转为累库格局，供应端负荷整体处于高位，进口到港预计回升，需求端聚酯装置负荷维持在90.3%（ + 0.3%），9月聚酯开工预期下调 [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weak trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread [2][9] - PTA: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low, weak unilateral trend [2][9] - MEG: Go long on MEG and short PTA/PX [2][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX supply - demand is marginally weak due to potential PTA unplanned maintenance reducing demand [9] - PTA has sufficient spot supply with weak basis, and low processing fees may lead to unplanned changes in operation rates. Current supply - demand is weak on both sides [9] - MEG may see a decline in imports in September due to overseas maintenance plans. It's stronger than PTA/PX, and traders focus on basis long - spread and calendar spread short - spread positions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On August 7, PX price fell following the decline in upstream crude oil and naphtha. The PX - naphtha spread widened. There were bids and offers but no deals [5][6] - **PTA**: A 120 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted. The PTA operation rate was around 76.2% on Thursday, and about 82.0% calculated by another method [6] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi started maintenance for about 20 days. The overall operation rate in mainland China was 68.40% (down 0.6% from the previous period) [6][7] - **Polyester**: The overall polyester operation rate in mainland China recovered to around 88.8%. The sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers on the 7th were weak [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [8] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread as supply - demand remains weak [9] - **PTA**: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low. The unilateral price trend is weak due to current supply - demand situation [9] - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the contract roll - over [9]

Core Viewpoint - The short fiber futures market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6610.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.89% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that short fiber is gradually realizing production cuts, indicating a potential opportunity to go long on processing fees [2] - Donghai Futures anticipates that short fiber will maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the medium term, following the polyester sector [2] - Ruida Futures highlights that the main short fiber contract faces resistance around 6650 yuan, with support expected near 6300 yuan [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production of polyester short fiber in China is reported at 163,500 tons, a slight decrease of 30 tons or 0.18% month-on-month, with an average capacity utilization rate of 86.42%, down 0.19% [3] - The average operating rate in the pure polyester yarn industry is at 72.42%, reflecting a decrease of 1.46% [3] - Inventory levels in the pure polyester yarn sector have increased, with weekly average inventory rising to 23.08 days, up 0.17 days from the previous week [3]

Supply and Demand - As of July 18, some factories have reduced production, leading to a decline in short fiber operating rates to approximately 89.5%, a decrease of 2.8% [3] - Downstream demand for polyester yarn is weak, with reduced orders for sewing thread and an accelerated pace of inventory accumulation in factories [3] - Polyester-cotton yarn sales remain stable, but inventory levels are high [3] Profitability - As of July 22, the cash processing fee for short fibers is around 987 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for PF2509 and PF2510 contracts are 895 CNY/ton and 960 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Market Outlook - Despite short fiber factories planning production cuts in July, weak terminal demand, high temperatures, and elevated finished goods inventory are leading to increased production cuts among downstream yarn factories [4] - The overall supply and demand for short fibers are weak, with no significant drivers, and absolute prices are fluctuating with raw material prices [4] - The processing fee for PF contracts is expected to fluctuate within the range of 800-1100 CNY/ton, with limited upward or downward drivers [4] Spot Market - On July 22, the short-term futures for direct-spun polyester saw a slight increase, with factory quotes remaining stable and transactions being negotiated at discounts [1] - The average sales rate for direct-spun polyester was 55% by 3:00 PM, with some factories reporting rates of 70%, 20%, 50%, and others [1]