2025 年 12 月 05 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 PTA：单边高位震荡市 MEG：价格创新低，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 【市场动态】 PX：尾盘石脑油价格偏强维持，1 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 552 美元/吨 CFR。12 月 4 日 PX 价格下跌，一 单 1 月亚洲现货在 844 成交。尾盘实货 1 月在 839/850 商谈，2 月在 841/855 商谈。12 月 4 日 PX 估价在 845 美元/吨，较 12 月 3 日下跌 3 美元。 PTA：中国大陆装置变动：本周装置基本无变化，至周四 PTA 负荷在 73.7%。另根据 PTA 装置日产/（国 内 PTA 产能/365) 计算，目前 PTA 开工率在 79.3% 附近。 MEG：江苏一套 100 万吨/年的 MEG 装置近期已停车，停车时间将持续至 2026 年二季度。 据悉，美国一套 110 万吨/年的乙二醇装置降负荷运行至 7 成附近，此外一套 36 万吨/年的装置仍在检 修中，暂无明确重启时间。 | 期货 | PX ...

Report Overview - The report provides insights into the PX, PTA, and MEG markets, including price movements, market dynamics, and future trends [1][2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Supply is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and planned production cuts at the South Korean GS disproportionation unit, leading to rising prices. It's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/PF/PR, and conduct a long PX and short pure benzene hedging operation. The price will be in a high - level oscillating market [7] - PTA: The upside space may be limited, and it's advised not to chase high prices. With cost support, the monthly spread view is revised to mainly positive arbitrage. The pressure of inventory accumulation has eased [7] - MEG: The medium - term trend is weak. It's advisable to short at high prices, and maintain reverse arbitrage for monthly spreads. There is an oversupply situation, and the unilateral upward driving force is insufficient [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha prices were stagnant at the end of the session. PX prices rose, with two January Asian spot transactions at $832 and $831. The 1 - 2 month spread shifted from flat to continuous. Asian PX prices rebounded on November 19, mainly affected by the strong energy complex [3][4] - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started maintenance this week, expected to last 5 weeks [6] - Polyester: A new 100 - ton/day cationic staple fiber production line in a direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factory in northern Jiangsu was newly put into operation. A 300,000 - ton new polyester plant in Anhui and a 300,000 - ton new polyester filament plant in Xinjiang have started operation [6] Price and Spread Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rose, while MEG futures price fell. The monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC all decreased [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha prices rose, while MEG and Dated Brent prices fell. PX - naphtha spread decreased, PTA processing fee increased, and short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; PTA and MEG trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral trend [7] Fundamentals - **PX**: Overseas refinery maintenance may lead to a continuous decline in gasoline and diesel inventories and strong cracking spreads until December. Domestic PX plants maintain high - level operation, but US and South Korean disproportionation units may cut production. The US - Asia window has opened, and domestic PTA plants face raw material supply shortages [7] - **PTA**: The extension of the maintenance time at Yisheng Ningbo and the commissioning of multiple new polyester plants have relieved the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation [7] - **MEG**: Although some devices have reduced production, new devices are being commissioned, and imports are expected to exceed 600,000 tons this month. Inventory continued to increase by 70,000 tons this Monday, and the polyester load will decline in December, resulting in an oversupply situation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is in a unilateral volatile market, and it's not advisable to chase high prices. Overseas gasoline is in short supply with low inventory, and the strong cracking spread may last until the end of November, which drives PX valuation. However, downstream marginal demand is weakening, and supply is at a high level, so the upside space may be limited. Maintain reverse spread operation for the monthly spread [1][6]. - PTA is also in a unilateral volatile market, not recommended to chase high. It has cost support, but the upside space may be limited. Weaving domestic demand and new orders are weakening, and the polyester load is temporarily reduced. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for filament exports. After load adjustment, the subsequent load will remain low, and the inventory accumulation pressure may be alleviated, but it will enter the inventory accumulation pattern again in December. Maintain 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1][7][8]. - For MEG, new plants are put into operation, and inventory continues to accumulate, with supply pressure remaining. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol will further increase, and the inventory has continued to accumulate by 70,000 tons this week, and the unilateral basis trend remains weak [1][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, PF, and SC decreased yesterday, with declines of -0.15%, -0.17%, -0.13%, and -0.07% respectively, while MEG increased by 0.41%. In terms of monthly spreads, PX1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 increased, and PTA1 - 5 decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent all decreased yesterday. In terms of spot processing fees, PX - naphtha spread, short - fiber processing fee, and bottle - chip processing fee decreased, while PTA processing fee increased, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread remained unchanged [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. Today's PX price was weakly maintained, with a January Asian spot transaction at 830. The market is waiting for a clearer answer regarding the 2026 term negotiation. The buying interest for January and February arrival goods increased on November 17 [3][4]. - **PTA**: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started scheduled maintenance today, expected to last about a week. The cancellation of India's quality control order on PTA boosted market sentiment, but actual demand growth has not yet emerged [4]. - **MEG**: The inventory in East China's main ports increased by 71,000 tons compared to the previous period. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia restarted, and a 200,000 - ton/year new plant in Ningxia is in the front - end feeding and startup stage [5]. - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Jiangyin restarted last Saturday. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were light today, with an average production - sales ratio of 35%. The production - sales ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was generally weak, with an average of 40% - 50% [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Fundamental Analysis - **PX**: Overseas gasoline is in short supply, and the strong cracking spread may last until the end of November, driving PX valuation. However, downstream marginal demand is weakening, and supply is at a high level, so the upside space is limited [6]. - **PTA**: It has cost support, but the upside space is limited. Weaving domestic demand and new orders are weakening, and the polyester load is temporarily reduced. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial for filament exports. After load adjustment, the subsequent load will remain low, and the inventory accumulation pressure may be alleviated, but it will enter the inventory accumulation pattern again in December [7][8]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol will further increase, and the inventory has continued to accumulate by 70,000 tons this week, and the unilateral basis trend remains weak [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending demand supporting aromatics valuation, with a high domestic plant operating rate, and attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on short - process plant operations [9]. - PTA price will be in a strong - side oscillating market, with processing fees sold short on rallies. The supply reduction due to industry anti - involution is attracting attention, and the future inventory build - up pattern is clear [9]. - MEG has a large supply pressure with rising inventory, showing a weak unilateral trend, and month - spread should be reverse - arbitraged on rallies [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have risen significantly day by day. Although the morning session increase was nominal, PX and PTA futures prices rose sharply in the afternoon session. The physical PX market activity is light [2][3]. - The contango between December and January has further widened. The PTA demand may slow down slightly, affecting the near - term PX purchase interest [5]. - A 100 - million - ton PTA plant in the southwest was shut down for maintenance last weekend as planned and is expected to restart in December [5]. - From November 3rd to November 9th, the average daily shipments of MEG in a major warehouse in Zhangjiagang were about 4,500 tons, and about 6,000 tons in two major warehouses in Taicang [5]. - The MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 661,000 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous period [6]. - Two 30 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plants in South China were shut down for maintenance today and are expected to restart in late December. A 60 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip plant in East China is planned to restart this weekend [6]. - The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 72% as of 3:00 pm [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 30% as of 3:30 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - PTA trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - MEG trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Views and Suggestions - For PX, the overseas blending demand supports the aromatics valuation, and it is relatively strong in the short - term. The domestic plant operating rate reaches a new high, and the impact of sanctions on short - process plant operations needs continuous attention [9]. - For PTA, the market focuses on supply reduction due to anti - involution, with a strong - side oscillating price. Processing fees should be sold short on rallies. The future inventory build - up pattern is clear, and positive spreads have limited upward space [9]. - For MEG, with inventory rising to 660,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, showing a weak unilateral trend. Month - spreads should be reverse - arbitraged on rallies. Multiple domestic plants have different operating statuses, and the supply pressure will increase from mid - November [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: PXN should be sold short at high levels. PXN above 230 US dollars should lock in profits at high levels [7]. - PTA: The anti - involution policy creates an expectation of supply contraction, with limited upside potential for the single - side price. PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [7]. - MEG: There will be a short - term rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, and SC prices all declined yesterday, with PX down 0.12%, PTA down 0.04%, MEG down 0.97%, and SC down 1.32%. PF rose 0.13%. The month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC also showed different changes [2]. - Spot: PX, MEG, and Dated Brent prices declined, while PTA prices increased. The PX - naphtha spread, short - fiber processing fee, and bottle - chip processing fee decreased, while the PTA processing fee increased [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha declined at the end of the session. PX prices fell today. Concerns about weak PX demand affected the spot price. The planned meeting of major PTA and PET producers in China may be postponed. China's Fujia Dahua Petrochemical plans to increase the production of its PX plant [3][5]. - PTA: A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China has restarted [6]. - MEG: The planned arrival volume at major ports from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were average today, with an average sales rate of over 50% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Views and Suggestions - PX: PXN should be sold short at high levels. Domestic and Asian PX device operating rates increased. Some devices have restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations [7]. - PTA: Pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting. The downstream market is improving, and PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [7]. - MEG: There will be a short - term rebound, but the upside is limited. Domestic supply may contract marginally, and port inventories are expected to be high [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market for direct-spun polyester staple fiber has seen significant price increases driven by rising raw material costs, with a strong demand outlook for the textile industry in the near term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 22, the futures market for direct-spun polyester staple fiber surged due to rising raw material prices [1] - As of 3:00 PM, the average production and sales ratio for direct-spun polyester staple fiber reached 138% [1] - The processing fee for short fiber in the spot market was approximately 1185 RMB/ton, while the processing fees for PF2512 and PF2601 futures were around 981 RMB/ton and 983 RMB/ton, respectively [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - As of October 17, the operating rate for direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained stable at approximately 94.3% [1] - Downstream prices for pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn have remained stable, with general sales activity [1] - The supply of short fibers is currently high, while downstream yarn production has seen some increases, indicating a continuation of the textile industry's peak season [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for the market indicates that short fiber prices are expected to remain strong due to reduced inventory levels among traders and limited selling at low prices [1] - After the holiday, short fiber factories are not expected to face significant inventory pressure, contributing to a strong price support in the short term [1] - The strategy suggests maintaining positions in PTA and expecting processing fees to fluctuate within the 800 - 1100 RMB range, with a focus on the upper end around 1000 RMB [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PX has limited downside space, and it is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. The supply and demand of PX are slightly tight [1][8][9]. - PTA has limited downside space, with demand expected to improve marginally. It is a volatile market, and short positions should be reduced [1][9]. - MEG has a better demand expectation and may rebound in the short - term. Short positions should be reduced [1][10]. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous trading day were 6332, 4414, 4004, 6070, and 437.7 respectively, with daily changes of 64, 30, 1, 42, and 1.9, and daily change rates of 1.02%, 0.68%, 0.02%, 0.70%, and 0.44% respectively. The month - spreads of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous trading day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $784.33/ton, 4325 yuan/ton, 4090 yuan/ton, $540/ton, and $61.09/barrel respectively, with corresponding price changes [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee**: The previous trading day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were $246.17/ton, 144.83 yuan/ton, 380.77 yuan/ton, 154.12 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with corresponding changes [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The naphtha price was stagnant at the end of the session. PX price was also stagnant, with no transactions in the negotiations. The PX price was estimated at $784/ton CFR, up $1 from last Friday. Some market participants believe that the price increase is driven by sentiment or a natural rebound. The operating rate of Chinese PX factories decreased from about 87.5% to about 85% in the week ending October 17. Market participants suggest reducing PX production due to low PTA activity [2][3][5]. - **Toluene and Mixed Xylene**: In the week ending October 17, the prices of toluene and mixed xylene increased slightly. Refinery shutdowns and supply limitations continued to support the market. The overall tightness is expected to last until the end of October [5]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with a weak spot basis [7]. - **MEG**: From October 20 to October 26, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Shanghai ports were about 17,000 tons, 36,000 tons, and 0 tons respectively, and the planned arrival quantity at some main ports was about 53,000 tons [7]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an estimated average sales rate of 160 - 170% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 66% by 3:00 pm [8]. Trends and Suggestions - **PX**: It is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. Pay attention to the impact of Yulong Petrochemical's possible reduction in CDU load on aromatic hydrocarbon production. PX supply and demand are slightly tight, and oil prices have recovered recently [8][9]. - **PTA**: Demand is expected to improve marginally, and it is a volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning of Xin凤鸣's new PTA device and the progress of India's new PTA device GAIL. The profit of the polyester sector has recovered, and overall consumption in the industry chain is expected to improve [9]. - **MEG**: Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning and maintenance of relevant devices and the possible planned - out maintenance of coal - based devices due to coal price changes [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse calendar spread for 1 - 5 months [1] 2. Core Views - PX: After the holiday, the polyester industry chain's production and sales remained sluggish. Due to the continuous high - temperature affected by the subtropical high in the south, the start - up time of autumn and winter orders was later than usual. The inventory of polyester filament accumulated again after the holiday, and the industry chain was in a negative feedback pattern. With the overnight decline in oil prices, PX valuation is weak [8]. - PTA: After the holiday, the maintenance of Hengli's 1 unit was implemented, but the supply in the East China region was still in excess. There were still pressures on domestic and export demand for textiles and clothing, and the market was waiting for the repair of autumn and winter orders [8]. - MEG: After the holiday, the operation of coal - based ethylene glycol plants resumed. Regarding oil - based plants, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - stop, and the subsequent resumption time should be monitored. During the National Day holiday, the port arrivals were high, and the inventory accumulated by about 80 thousand tons after the holiday. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and the short - term trend remains weak [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 1.13 - million - ton PX unit in South Korea and a 0.55 - million - ton PX unit in Malaysia restarted around early October. A 0.26 - million - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory was shut down for maintenance as planned in early October, expected to last until the end of November [1]. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the Northeast started planned maintenance today. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA unit in the East China region reduced its load to 50 - 60% around October 7. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 74.4%. According to the calculation of PTA unit daily output / (domestic PTA production capacity / 365), the current PTA operating rate is around 80.2% [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was about 507 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 98 thousand tons. From October 9 to October 12, the planned arrivals at the main ports totaled about 80 thousand tons. As of October 9, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.08% (a month - on - month increase of 2.00%) [6]. Polyester Production and Sales - Polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang: Today's production and sales were highly differentiated. As of around 3:30 pm, the average production and sales were estimated at about 50%. During the National Day - Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the overall production and sales were light, with an eight - day average of about 30% [7]. - Direct - spun polyester staple fiber: As of around 3:00 pm, the average production and sales were 67% [7]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures decreased by - 0.12%, - 0.22%, - 1.16%, 0.25%, and - 1.81% respectively [1]. - Spot: The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton, 45 yuan/ton, and 61 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars/ton, the PTA processing fee decreased by 4.44 yuan/ton, and the short - fiber processing fee increased by 38.73 yuan/ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The crude oil market has become pessimistic after OPEC+ plans to increase production, and traders generally expect lower oil prices. PX valuation has weakened, but the supply-demand pattern is tight due to upcoming new PTA plant launches and high polyester factory operation rates. It is recommended to partially close positions and focus on long PX short Brent. For PX, 11-01 calendar spread is in contango, and 1-5 is in backwardation. Also, for 01/05, long PX short PTA is suggested [10]. - For PTA, the cost side is weakening, and the valuation has declined. The support for PTA processing margin is weak. Despite the high polyester operation rate, PTA is in a destocking pattern, but there is significant future supply pressure. It is advisable to continue monitoring the 11-01 contango position and the PTA01/05 processing margin compression position [10]. - The market is focusing on the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. The 01 contract faces significant pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 1-5 backwardation. Near - month spot has low inventory and strong basis. The unilateral price is in a weak and volatile market [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6778, 4688, 4302, 6370, and 489.2 respectively. The price changes were 6770, -10, -17, 6, and 3, with percentage changes of 0.12%, -0.21%, -0.39%, 0.09%, and 0.62% [2]. - The 11-1 spread of PX was 60, PTA 11-1 was -14, MEG 1-5 was -48, PF 11-12 was 14, and SC 11-12 was 1.7 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot price of PX CFR China was 838.33 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 4620 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 4422 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 604 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 66.3 dollars/barrel [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 233.75 dollars/ton, PTA processing margin was 131.77 yuan/ton, short - fiber processing margin was 208.61 yuan/ton, bottle - chip processing margin was 69.09 yuan/ton, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was -6.01 dollars/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price declined slightly. PX prices were stable, with some spot transactions. The supply from the Middle East is limited due to strong gasoline demand. China's Fujia Dahua plans to shut down its 700,000 - ton/year No. 2 PX production line for maintenance [4][6]. - PTA: Some PTA plants in China restarted, and the PTA load reached 76.8%. A 110 - million - ton PTA plant in South China plans to conduct maintenance in mid - to - late October [7]. - MEG: The overall operating load in China was 74.91%, with the syngas - to - MEG operating load at 76.69%. An Xinjiang 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - MEG plant shut down, and an Iranian 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant is restarting [7][8]. - Polyester: The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%, and the overall polyester load in China reached about 91.6%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were mixed [8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG were all 0, indicating a neutral view [9].

Report Investment Rating - PX: Long PX short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [7] - PTA: Long PTA short MEG, long PTA 11 - contract short PX [8] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG, 09 - 01 calendar spread long, avoid chasing long positions above 4550 [9] Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with prices having a short - term pullback. The PTA price is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while the MEG price is in a sideways market [7][8][9] Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力合约昨日收盘价6878，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.12%；月差PX9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 108，较前日跌156 [1] - PTA主力合约昨日收盘价4784，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.17%；月差PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 62，较前日跌6 [1] - MEG主力合约昨日收盘价4466，涨跌1，涨跌幅0.02%；月差MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 37，较前日涨4 [1] Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格848.67美元/吨，较前日持平 [1] - PTA华东昨日价格4740元/吨，较前日跌35 [1] - MEG现货昨日价格4534元/吨，较前日涨9 [1] Processing Margin - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格254.79，较前日跌9 [1] - PTA加工费昨日价格221.67，较前日跌29.59 [1] Market Dynamics Summary - PX现货价格因缺乏多空驱动因素保持不变，看跌的原油情绪限制亚洲PX价格涨幅，且美国关税政策引发消费者价格通胀担忧 [1][2] - 9月初聚酯装置有开停变化，江浙涤丝29号产销整体偏弱，直纺涤短销售一般 [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX趋势强度为1，PTA趋势强度为1，MEG趋势强度为0 [6] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - 亚洲其他地区对二甲苯开工率75.6%（ - 0.7%），国产PX装置开工率83.3%（ - 1.3%），9月福佳大化70计划检修，福化集团160计划重启，供应边际回升 [7] PTA - PTA负荷70.4%（ - 1.2%），恒力惠州装置意外停车后转为去库格局，但工厂套保盘压制盘面，基差回落，聚酯开工90.3%（ + 0.3%） [8] MEG - MEG装置开工率75.1%（ + 2%），港口转为累库格局，供应端负荷整体处于高位，进口到港预计回升，需求端聚酯装置负荷维持在90.3%（ + 0.3%），9月聚酯开工预期下调 [9]