期 货 研 究 9 月 11 日，亚洲对二甲苯价格环比小幅上涨，反映出该地区供需基本面稳定。 对二甲苯：油价走低，估值再次下探，11-1 月 差正套 PTA：成本支撑偏弱，11-1 月差正套 MEG：市场关注裕龙石化装置新增情况，1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6778 | 4688 | 4302 | 6370 | 489.2 | | 涨跌 | 6770 | -10 | -17 | 6 | 3 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.12% | -0.21% | -0.39% | 0.09% | 0.62% | | 月差 | PX11-1 | PTA11-1 | MEG1-5 | PF11-12 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 60 | -14 | -48 | 14 | 1.7 | | 前日收盘价 | 52 | -18 | -37 | 14 | 0.9 ...

Report Investment Rating - PX: Long PX short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [7] - PTA: Long PTA short MEG, long PTA 11 - contract short PX [8] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG, 09 - 01 calendar spread long, avoid chasing long positions above 4550 [9] Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with prices having a short - term pullback. The PTA price is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while the MEG price is in a sideways market [7][8][9] Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力合约昨日收盘价6878，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.12%；月差PX9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 108，较前日跌156 [1] - PTA主力合约昨日收盘价4784，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.17%；月差PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 62，较前日跌6 [1] - MEG主力合约昨日收盘价4466，涨跌1，涨跌幅0.02%；月差MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 37，较前日涨4 [1] Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格848.67美元/吨，较前日持平 [1] - PTA华东昨日价格4740元/吨，较前日跌35 [1] - MEG现货昨日价格4534元/吨，较前日涨9 [1] Processing Margin - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格254.79，较前日跌9 [1] - PTA加工费昨日价格221.67，较前日跌29.59 [1] Market Dynamics Summary - PX现货价格因缺乏多空驱动因素保持不变，看跌的原油情绪限制亚洲PX价格涨幅，且美国关税政策引发消费者价格通胀担忧 [1][2] - 9月初聚酯装置有开停变化，江浙涤丝29号产销整体偏弱，直纺涤短销售一般 [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX趋势强度为1，PTA趋势强度为1，MEG趋势强度为0 [6] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - 亚洲其他地区对二甲苯开工率75.6%（ - 0.7%），国产PX装置开工率83.3%（ - 1.3%），9月福佳大化70计划检修，福化集团160计划重启，供应边际回升 [7] PTA - PTA负荷70.4%（ - 1.2%），恒力惠州装置意外停车后转为去库格局，但工厂套保盘压制盘面，基差回落，聚酯开工90.3%（ + 0.3%） [8] MEG - MEG装置开工率75.1%（ + 2%），港口转为累库格局，供应端负荷整体处于高位，进口到港预计回升，需求端聚酯装置负荷维持在90.3%（ + 0.3%），9月聚酯开工预期下调 [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Weak trend, hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread [2][9] - PTA: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low, weak unilateral trend [2][9] - MEG: Go long on MEG and short PTA/PX [2][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX supply - demand is marginally weak due to potential PTA unplanned maintenance reducing demand [9] - PTA has sufficient spot supply with weak basis, and low processing fees may lead to unplanned changes in operation rates. Current supply - demand is weak on both sides [9] - MEG may see a decline in imports in September due to overseas maintenance plans. It's stronger than PTA/PX, and traders focus on basis long - spread and calendar spread short - spread positions [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On August 7, PX price fell following the decline in upstream crude oil and naphtha. The PX - naphtha spread widened. There were bids and offers but no deals [5][6] - **PTA**: A 120 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted. The PTA operation rate was around 76.2% on Thursday, and about 82.0% calculated by another method [6] - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi started maintenance for about 20 days. The overall operation rate in mainland China was 68.40% (down 0.6% from the previous period) [6][7] - **Polyester**: The overall polyester operation rate in mainland China recovered to around 88.8%. The sales of polyester filaments and staple fibers on the 7th were weak [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - PTA trend intensity: - 1 (weak) [8] - MEG trend intensity: 0 (neutral) [8] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold 9 - 1 reverse calendar spread as supply - demand remains weak [9] - **PTA**: Go long on the calendar spread when it's low. The unilateral price trend is weak due to current supply - demand situation [9] - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the contract roll - over [9]

Core Viewpoint - The short fiber futures market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6610.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.89% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures suggests that short fiber is gradually realizing production cuts, indicating a potential opportunity to go long on processing fees [2] - Donghai Futures anticipates that short fiber will maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the medium term, following the polyester sector [2] - Ruida Futures highlights that the main short fiber contract faces resistance around 6650 yuan, with support expected near 6300 yuan [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production of polyester short fiber in China is reported at 163,500 tons, a slight decrease of 30 tons or 0.18% month-on-month, with an average capacity utilization rate of 86.42%, down 0.19% [3] - The average operating rate in the pure polyester yarn industry is at 72.42%, reflecting a decrease of 1.46% [3] - Inventory levels in the pure polyester yarn sector have increased, with weekly average inventory rising to 23.08 days, up 0.17 days from the previous week [3]

【现货方面】 7月22日，直纺涤短期货震荡收涨。现货方面工厂报价维持，成交优惠商谈。期现基差适度走强，新凤 鸣（603225）货源09+210~220，华西货源09+180，华宏一口价6400附近成交。直纺涤短工厂销售一 般，截止下午3:00附近，平均产销55%，部分工厂产销：70%、20%、50%、50%、40%、70%、100%、 30%、50%、50%。 【利润方面】 7月22日，短纤现货加工费至987元/吨附近，PF2509盘面加工费至895元/吨，PF2510盘面加工费至960 元/吨。 【供需方面】 供应：截至7月18日，部分工厂减产，短纤负荷下滑至89.5%附近（-2.8%）。 需求：下游涤纱商谈走货，销售疲软，近期缝纫线订单减少，工厂累库速度加快。涤棉纱暂稳走货，库 存维持高位。 【行情展望】 尽管短纤工厂7月存减产计划，不过在终端需求偏弱、高温天气以及成品库存高位情况下，下游纱厂减 产增加，短纤供需双弱且终端需求预期更弱。整体来看，短期短纤供需双弱，无明显驱动，绝对价格随 原料震荡。策略上，单边同TA；PF盘面加工费在800-1100区间震荡，上下驱动均有限。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX is in a unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 0. Suggest a positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and short PXN01 at high levels. The supply - demand pattern is tight, but PXN valuation is high and the trend is weak [1][7]. - PTA should focus on the production cut situation of filament factories. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread arbitrage for the monthly spread and go long MEG while shorting PTA. The trend strength is 0. The basis has fallen to single - digits, and the supply will be marginally loose from mid - July, with the possibility of continuous inventory accumulation [1][7]. - MEG is in a low - inventory, unilateral volatile market, with a trend strength of 1. The cost - end coal price is strong, and it is recommended to conduct a positive spread arbitrage for the basis and monthly spread, and not to chase short on the unilateral valuation [1][7]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - **PX**: A 700,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia is gradually resuming its load after a reduction in late June due to an olefin - end fault. Another 530,000 - ton PX unit in Southeast Asia stopped for maintenance in early July, 15 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to restart in mid - August, with a pure benzene production capacity of about 300,000 tons [3]. - **PTA**: In mainland China, the load of Yisheng Hainan and Yisheng Dalian PTA units has returned to normal, and the PTA load has reached 79.7% as of Thursday. The current operating rate is around 85.8%. A 1.5 - million - ton PTA unit in Taiwan, China has restarted after a maintenance that started in early June [3]. - **MEG**: From July 7th to July 13th, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Ningbo ports are about 31,000 tons, 37,000 tons, and 28,000 tons respectively, with a total planned arrival at major ports of about 96,000 tons. As of July 10th, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 67.57% (a 1.06% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) method is 73.13% (a 3.79% increase from the previous period). Since June 1st, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 29.175 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons [5]. - **Polyester**: The load of polyester is in a fluctuating decline. As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in mainland China is around 88.9%. A 600,000 - ton polyester unit in Huzhou has restarted after a short - term maintenance. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 10th were temporarily weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 50% - 60% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers on the 10th improved moderately compared to the 9th, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 63% by 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Strength - PX trend strength: 0 [7]. - PTA trend strength: 0 [7]. - MEG trend strength: 1 [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, and monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are provided, along with the price changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot**: The prices and price changes of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are presented [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: The prices and price changes of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are given [2].

Group 1 - On July 8, New York crude oil futures for August rose by $0.4, settling at $68.33 per barrel, while Brent crude for September increased by $0.57, settling at $70.15 per barrel [1] - Asian isomer MX rose by $4 to $719 per ton FOB Korea, and Asian PX increased by $6 to $826 per ton FOB Korea and $847 per ton CFR China [1] - PTA futures experienced fluctuations on July 9, with Yisheng Petrochemical lowering PTA prices by $6 to $614 per ton [1] Group 2 - On July 9, the overall production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate above 40% [1] - The price range for semi-dull 1.4D direct-spun polyester was reported between 6,600 - 6,800 CNY per ton in Jiangsu, 6,800 - 6,950 CNY per ton in Fujian, and 6,700 - 6,900 CNY per ton in Shandong and Hebei [1] - The trading atmosphere for polyester chips was generally average, with mainstream transactions for semi-dull and bright chips around 5,780 - 5,850 CNY and 5,820 - 5,850 CNY per ton, respectively [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. The fundamentals of PTA are weakening, but PX fundamentals remain tight, and the floating price of the spot is strongly maintained. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the expiration of the tariff extension deadline in July, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - In the short term, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver. The upside potential of gasoline cracking spreads is limited, and the demand for blending oil this year is not worth much expectation. PX short - flow plants have restarted external procurement of MX due to profit recovery [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and it is expected to decline to 89% - 90% in July. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3] - The fundamentals of PF are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, and the demand is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The processing fee of PR is expected to recover with the implementation of production cuts, but the current profit is still low [4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral ratings of PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. There are no cross - variety strategies. For cross - period strategies, after the sentiment weakens, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long in the positive spread of PX/PTA monthly spreads at low prices [5] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The charts show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts present PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts display the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The charts show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The charts show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][73][76] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next next month - base month) [95][97][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, both domestic and imported PX supplies are tight, leading to a continuous upward trend. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. The PXN spread has expanded to $261/ton, and short - term calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term and sell far - term) is advisable [7][8]. - PTA: Supported by cost factors, both the single - side position and the calendar and basis spreads are strong. Despite increased maintenance by polyester bottle - chip and short - fiber factories, PTA supply remains tight, causing the basis to strengthen significantly [8]. - MEG: With the shutdown of Iranian ethylene glycol plants, MEG is expected to be in a short - term upward - trending and volatile state. It is recommended to reduce the position of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Attention should be paid to the operating status and shipping changes of Iranian ethylene glycol plants under the Israel - Iran conflict [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Variation**: On June 19, 2025, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7094, 4988, 4539, 6794, and 3998 respectively, with daily changes of 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 2.0% [1]. - **Calendar Spread**: The PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 calendar spreads on June 19 were 272, 206, 23, 74, and - 469 respectively, with daily changes of 52, 38, 7, 28, and 50 [1]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 spreads on June 19 were 377, 449, - 1636, 887, and 1040 respectively, with daily changes of 5, 6, - 26, 20, and 12 [1]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: The PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spreads on June 19 were 251, 270, 85, - 4, and 255 respectively, with daily changes of - 106, - 60, - 1, - 48, and no change [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, the PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 37468, 6052, 5464, 0, and 4029000 respectively, with daily changes of - 43123, no change, no change, - 5, and no change [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **PX Market**: On June 19, the PX price continued to rise, with an estimated price of $904/ton, up $16 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread expanded to $261.38/ton. The PTA operating rate in China dropped from 82.6% to 79.1% due to plant maintenance, while the polyester operating rate was estimated at 92%, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - **PTA Market**: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northeast has shut down, and a 4.5 - million - ton plant in the South is gradually shutting down for about two months of maintenance. The PTA operating rate has dropped, and the Honggang Petrochemical Phase 3 2.5 - million - ton plant has started production and is operating at over 90% capacity [4][5]. - **MEG Market**: Two ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a combined capacity of 1.4 million tons/year are scheduled to restart soon. As of June 19, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 70.33% (up 4.08% from the previous period), and a new 600,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Sichuan has been put into production [5][6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has increased slightly, with an overall theoretical operating rate of about 73.2%. As of Thursday, the polyester operating rate in mainland China was around 92%. On June 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average production - sales ratio of 54%, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, with an average production - sales ratio of about 30% [6][7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [8].