Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term volatile, mid - term still bullish [2] - PTA: Short - term volatile, mid - term still bullish [2] - MEG: Supply is tight, mid - term trend is bullish [2] Core Views - PX: Mid - term trend is still bullish, operate by buying on dips. There are supply shortages and potential PTA device开工 declines [7] - PTA: Short - term correction, mid - term trend is still bullish. There are challenges in spot sales and pressure from low basis and rising warehouse receipts [8] - MEG: Short - term pressure, mid - term trend is bullish. Supply reduction and demand decline lead to short - term sales difficulties, with a suggested trading range and spread strategy [8] Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **PX**: Yesterday's closing price was 9502 yuan/ton, down 206 yuan/ton or - 2.12%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 250 yuan, down 30 yuan [4] - **PTA**: Yesterday's closing price was 6592 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton or - 1.52%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 108 yuan, down 2 yuan [4] - **MEG**: Yesterday's closing price was 5036 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton or - 1.62%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 96 yuan, up 14 yuan [4] - **PF**: Yesterday's closing price was 8110 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan/ton or - 1.74%. The 3 - 4 month spread was - 166 yuan, up 22 yuan [4] - **SC**: Yesterday's closing price was 723.9 yuan/ton, down 15.2 yuan/ton or - 2.06%. The 2 - 3 month spread was 5 yuan, down 3.9 yuan [4] Spot Market - **PX**: Yesterday's price was 1207.67 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars/ton [4] - **PTA**: Yesterday's price was 6465 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton [4] - **MEG**: Yesterday's price was 4863 yuan/ton, down 373 yuan/ton [4] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: Yesterday's price was 997.75 dollars/ton, down 90.75 dollars/ton [4] - **Dated Brent**: Yesterday's price was 109.58 dollars/barrel, down 1.56 dollars/barrel [4] Spot Processing Fees - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Yesterday's price was 65.17 dollars/ton, down 38 dollars/ton [4] - **PTA Processing Fee**: Yesterday's price was 278.35 yuan/ton, down 5.95 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - fiber Processing Fee**: Yesterday's price was 84.3 yuan/ton, up 213.88 yuan/ton [4] - **Bottle - chip Processing Fee**: Yesterday's price was 844.62 yuan/ton, up 18.77 yuan/ton [4] - **MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread**: Yesterday's price was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged [4] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On March 25, crude futures declined. Unv1's Taiwan Chemical Fiber Company declared force majeure on aromatic products. Some PTA producers in Unv1 may face load reduction [5] - **PTA**: On March 25, the spot price fell to 6470 yuan/ton. The mainstream basis was 05 - 68 [6] - **MEG**: On March 25, the spot and futures prices had a certain range. The average monthly price and settlement price were also provided [6] - **Polyester**: Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased the production cut from 15% to 20% and extended the cut period to the end of April [6] Sales Conditions - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Polyester Yarn**: On March 25, the overall sales were light, with an average sales rate of 2 - 30% [7] - **Direct - spinning Polyester Staple Fiber**: On March 25, the sales were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 68% [7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 [7] - PTA trend intensity: 0 [7] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7] Strategies - **PX**: Mid - term trend is bullish, operate by buying on dips [7] - **PTA**: Hold long PX and short PTA [8] - **MEG**: Unilateral operation in the range of 4500 - 6000 yuan, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral shock is on the strong side [1] - PTA: Unilateral shock is on the strong side [1] - MEG: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies, and the trend is on the strong side [1] Core Views - PX: The trend remains strong. The Asian PX operating rate drops slightly, and the supply in the Middle East is tight. The PX - naphtha spread narrows, and the aromatics blending oil economy recovers [7]. - PTA: Supported by costs, the short - term trend remains strong. The PTA operating rate drops, and downstream orders are cautious. The 05 contract processing fee on the disk falls, and the spot processing fee fluctuates greatly [8]. - MEG: The import reduction is expected to expand, and the trend is strong. The domestic and overseas operating rates decrease, and the import volume drops sharply. The prices of spot and futures rise with costs [9]. Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 9874, 6790, 8182, and 735.4 respectively, with changes of - 144, - 128, - 96, and - 25.8, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 1.44%, - 1.85%, - 1.16%, and - 3.39%. The MEG futures price rose by 23, with a percentage change of 0.48% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3, the closing prices yesterday were 488, 242, 67, - 166, and 3.2 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 6, 0, 22, and 5.1 [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: On March 18, the PX price dropped, and the valuation was 1250 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars compared to the previous day. The 4 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads in the derivatives market showed some trading interest [3]. - **PTA**: On March 18, the PTA spot price rose to 6805 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 05 - 88 [5]. - **MEG**: The high - price and low - price transactions of MEG spot this week and next week were around 4920 yuan/ton and 4694 yuan/ton respectively, with an average daily price of 4807 yuan/ton. The high - price and low - price transactions of April futures were around 4960 yuan/ton and 4760 yuan/ton respectively, with an average daily price of 4860 yuan/ton [5]. Polyester Market - A 250,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in Fujian reduced its load by 50% due to raw material shortages [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 18 were still sluggish, with an average sales rate of 10% - 20% by 4 pm [6]. - The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories on March 18 were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3 pm [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **PX**: Unilateral attention should be paid to the 9000 - 12000 range, 5 - 9 month - to - month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: Unilateral operations should be carried out in the 6200 - 8000 range, 5 - 9 month - to - month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral operations should be carried out in the 4500 - 6000 range and 5 - 9 month - to - month spread positive arbitrage [9].

Group 1: Rubber Market Insights - Domestic RSS rubber prices decreased to 16,950 CNY/ton, down by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai mixed rubber prices also fell to 15,900 CNY/ton, a decrease of 100 CNY/ton [2][26] - As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.366 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons, or 5.4% from the previous period [2][26] - The market anticipates a significant upward pricing trend for natural rubber due to the easing of tariffs that previously suppressed growth in the tire industry, with expectations for continued demand growth [3][27] Group 2: PX Market Dynamics - The PX industry in China saw a load increase of 0.4 percentage points to 92.4%, while the Asian industry load rose by 1.2 percentage points to 84.9%, indicating a robust supply outlook [4][30] - The demand side is expected to improve significantly in April due to the recovery of downstream PTA facilities, with a notable increase in production anticipated [4][30] - Brent crude oil prices experienced fluctuations due to positive developments in US-Iran negotiations, which may impact PX pricing in the near term [5][28] Group 3: PTA and Polyester Sector - The PTA industry load increased by 1.8 percentage points to 76.6%, reaching a neutral level for the season, with downstream polyester production also expected to rise [6][30] - The market is currently cautious as downstream orders have not yet fully resumed, and there are concerns about high raw material prices affecting production recovery [6][30] - The PTA supply-demand balance is expected to improve in March, with potential price support in the 5,150-5,300 CNY range for mid-term positions [6][30] Group 4: EG Market Overview - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 2.2 percentage points to 79.0%, with a notable rise in synthetic gas production load [9][33] - The overall import dependency for ethylene glycol is approximately 27.2%, with limited impact from Iranian sources [9][33] - Short-term price movements are expected to be constrained within the 3,650-3,750 CNY range, with potential for a rebound based on low valuation logic [9][33] Group 5: Other Chemical Markets - The soda ash market is experiencing stable prices, with production slightly increasing to 791,000 tons, while inventory levels are also rising [14][39] - The glass market is facing supply pressures with an increase in inventory to 3.8 million tons, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year rise [16][41] - The PVC market is under pressure due to high inventory levels and slow recovery in downstream production, with prices expected to fluctuate between 4,600-5,000 CNY/ton [22][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Cost support is strong, and PX is expected to rise after the holiday. Go long on PXN and engage in 5 - 9 calendar spread trading. The PX - naphtha spread has recovered to $327/ton. The PX operating rate remains high, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering. The industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - PTA: Supported by costs, the short - term trend is strong. The PTA futures opened with a catch - up increase on the first day. It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread. The downstream polyester price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, and it is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March. The price has limited downside but the upside is not yet open, so maintain range - bound operations [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7432, 5312, 3747, 6722, and 488.3 respectively, with changes of - 46, - 40, 10, - 68, and - 5, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.75%, 0.27%, - 1.00%, and - 1.01% [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 calendar spreads on the previous day were 20, 14, - 118, - 98, and 5 respectively, with changes of - 6, - 18, - 6, - 32, and 5.6 compared to the day before [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were $928.67/ton, 5285 yuan/ton, 3658 yuan/ton, $616/ton, and $70.78/barrel respectively, with changes of - 4, 0, 10, 2.5, and - 0.55 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil on the previous day were $297.55/ton, 412.68 yuan/ton, 106.87 yuan/ton, 240.63 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.66, - 17.01, 81.21, 40.06, and 0 [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - **PX**: On February 25, the PX price declined, and the raw material trend was generally weak. The negotiation and transaction level of PX also fell after rising. The spot transaction atmosphere was okay, and the 4 - and 5 - month spot maintained a - 2 C structure. The floating price fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - **Polyester**: A 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is being heated up and is planned to restart tomorrow, with products expected around the Lantern Festival. Another 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is planned to start heating up on March 1 and feed on March 4. A large - scale polyester industrial yarn plant in Huzhou is restarting, and a 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Huzhou restarted on February 24. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 25 were sluggish, with an average sales rate of about 20% by 3:30 p.m. The sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants was highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 51% by 3:00 p.m [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: The supply side has a high operating rate, with the Asian PX operating rate at around 84%. South Korea's PX exports increased significantly in the first 20 days of February. The demand side has a PTA operating rate of around 75%, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering [7]. - **PTA**: It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. The downstream polyester price has increased, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [7]. - **MEG**: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, with the coal - based plant operating rate reaching 83%. It accumulates inventory during the Spring Festival, and is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX: Unilateral price fluctuates downward with cost, pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival. Processing fees decline, and conduct reverse arbitrage on monthly spreads. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and PX is in a pattern of inventory accumulation [7]. - PTA: It is in a range - bound market, and the monthly spread is bearish. The polyester开工 rate is expected to decline marginally in the short - term, and PTA is in a pattern of inventory accumulation in January - February [8]. - MEG: It is in a unilateral range - bound market, and operate within the range of 3700 - 4000. The supply is increasing, and the short - term demand is weak, remaining in a pattern of inventory accumulation [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures - PX主力昨日收盘价7200，涨跌 - 96，涨跌幅 - 1.32%，月差PX5 - 9昨日收盘价14，较前日涨10 [2]. - PTA主力昨日收盘价5144，涨跌 - 74，涨跌幅 - 1.42%，月差PTA5 - 9昨日收盘价 - 4，较前日跌10 [2]. - MEG主力昨日收盘价3745，涨跌 - 43，涨跌幅 - 1.14%，月差MEG5 - 9昨日收盘价 - 112，较前日跌1 [2]. - PF主力昨日收盘价6564，涨跌 - 66，涨跌幅 - 1.00%，月差PF3 - 4昨日收盘价 - 80，较前日跌10 [2]. - SC主力昨日收盘价467.2，涨跌4.8，涨跌幅1.04%，月差SC2 - 3昨日收盘价 - 7.5，较前日跌3 [2]. Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格892.67美元/吨，较前日跌9.66美元/吨 [2]. - PTA华东昨日价格5115元/吨，较前日跌35元/吨 [2]. - MEG现货昨日价格3642元/吨，较前日跌40元/吨 [2]. - 石脑油MOPJ昨日价格604.25美元/吨，较前日涨6美元/吨 [2]. - Dated布伦特昨日价格69.7美元/桶，较前日跌0.12美元/桶 [2]. Spot Processing Fees - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格313.25，较前日涨3.62 [2]. - PTA加工费昨日价格413，较前日涨42.1 [2]. - 短纤加工费昨日价格82.15，较前日涨40.24 [2]. - 瓶片加工费昨日价格225.16，较前日涨34.09 [2]. - MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，较前日无变化 [2]. Fundamentals - PX: 尾盘石脑油价格小幅上涨，今日PX价格下跌，估价892美元/吨，较昨日跌10美元 [4]. - PTA: 本周能投100万吨PTA装置恢复，本周四PTA负荷为77.6% [4]. - MEG: 华南一套70万吨/年装置3月上旬开始停车检修至4月底；截至2月5日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷76.22%（环比上升1.85%），草酸催化加氢法制乙二醇开工负荷76.77%（环比下降5.02%）；巴斯夫（广东）80万吨/年新装置1月出料并稳定运行，2月计入产能基数；科威特62万吨/年装置重启延后十天；沙特70万吨/年装置仍停车，重启时间待跟进 [4][5]. - 聚酯: 春节临近，聚酯装置多套检修，大厂减产扩大，综合聚酯负荷下降，本周四国内大陆地区聚酯负荷79.3%附近；涤纶工业丝大厂开工负荷总体下降，目前理论开工负荷67%左右；今日直纺涤短工厂产销高低分化，平均产销45%；江浙涤丝今日产销清淡，平均产销2成左右 [6]. Trend Intensity - 对二甲苯趋势强度： - 1 - PTA趋势强度： - 1 - MEG趋势强度： - 1 [6]

Group 1 - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber price is 15,180 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [4][30] - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.281 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7% [4][30] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China is 853,000 tons, up 0.7%, while the total inventory of light rubber is 428,000 tons, up 0.8% [4][30] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, indicating a shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels [5][31] - Despite expectations of moderate growth in global demand for tires and rubber products by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][31] - As market expectations cool down, RU and NR are expected to experience a correction [5][31] Group 3 - The PX industry in China has seen a load increase of 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply [6][32] - The demand side is affected by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, which could tighten supply [6][32] - The overall supply-demand pattern for PX is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter [6][32] Group 4 - The PTA industry load increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [8][34] - The polyester industry load decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 79.3%, indicating a potential acceleration in the decline of industry operations [8][34] - The overall demand is weakening, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [8][34] Group 5 - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.8 percentage points to 76.2%, but the overall pressure remains due to sufficient domestic supply [10][36] - February may see the largest inventory pressure of the first half of the year for ethylene glycol [10][36] - The current price levels are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts [10][36] Group 6 - The bottle-grade polyester industry has been in a continuous de-inventory phase since the fourth quarter of last year, with significant reductions expected around the Spring Festival [12][41] - The supply side is expected to continue contracting, providing key support for inventory reduction and processing fees [12][41] - The market sentiment is weakening, with short-term price movements expected to remain stable [12][41] Group 7 - The glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with supply pressures easing and a decrease in production [17][43] - Recent data shows a slight increase in glass inventory, with production levels declining [17][43] - The overall market is expected to remain stable, with some support from production line maintenance [17][43] Group 8 - The PVC market is facing high supply pressure due to elevated operating rates, despite a significant slowdown in production growth expected in 2026 [22][48] - The short-term outlook remains cautious, with limited improvements in the fundamental market conditions [22][48] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with reference price ranges set for the main contracts [22][48]

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price reached 16,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price at 15,130 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade reached 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices [5] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while Asia's industry load rose by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side is affected by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, which may impact PX demand [6] - Geopolitical tensions have led to significant oil price increases, but short-term fluctuations are not expected to greatly affect polyester prices unless extreme events occur [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remained stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand for PTA is weakening, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to drop [7][30] - The PTA market is facing inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter, with short-term cost support still present [7][30] Group 4: EG Market - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.2 percentage points to 74.3%, indicating high operational levels [9][32] - Despite potential import reductions due to maintenance in North America and the Middle East, domestic supply remains ample, leading to overall pressure in the market [9][32] - February is expected to bring significant inventory pressure, with current prices not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts [9][32] Group 5: PF Market - The load of direct-spun polyester short fibers decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 96.0%, with production cuts being implemented [11][34] - Demand remains weak, and the operating rate of polyester yarn has also declined, which is expected to further suppress demand for short fibers [11][34] - Short-term price pressures are anticipated due to weak terminal demand, although cost support remains [11][34] Group 6: PR Market - The supply side of the bottle-grade PET industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 66.1%, indicating low operational levels [13][36] - Demand is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery in February [13][36] - The ongoing supply contraction is expected to support inventory reduction and processing fees, but price independence from raw materials is unlikely [13][36] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures saw a slight decline, while spot prices remained stable, with recent production increases adding supply pressure [14][37] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, and inventory levels have increased, indicating a mixed market sentiment [14][37] - Short-term price movements are expected to remain within a low range due to increased supply and weak demand [14][37] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures experienced a slight increase, with stable spot prices, while supply pressures have eased [40] - Recent inventory levels have decreased slightly, and procurement activity has improved, indicating a potential for price support [40] - The overall market remains cautious due to ongoing weak demand in the real estate sector [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and MEG all show a strong unilateral trend. For PX, due to macro - policies, it is favored by funds. Although its future supply is expected to be loose, the short - term trend is still strong. For PTA, under the macro - policy, it is also favored by funds, with future supply and demand both weakening and turning to inventory accumulation, but the downside space of the unilateral price is limited. For MEG, with the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices, short - sellers cut their positions. Although the supply pressure is large, the basis and spread are expected to be strong [1][8][9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract yesterday was 7468, up 262 or 3.64% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread was 48, up 6 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract yesterday was 5298, up 144 or 2.79% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 34, down 10 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract yesterday was 3847, up 158 or 4.28% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread was - 103, up 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract yesterday was 6640, up 144 or 2.22% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 48, down 8 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract yesterday was 446.4, up 5.6 or 1.27% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread was - 1, down 0.4 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price yesterday was 906.67 dollars/ton, up 18.34 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 330.5, up 4.42 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price in East China yesterday was 5157 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 309.31, down 70.31 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG spot price yesterday was 3678 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price yesterday was 567 dollars/ton, up 8.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price yesterday was 65.78 dollars/barrel, down 1.65 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2]. Industry Fundamentals - **PX**: On January 22, Asian xylene prices continued to strengthen. Platts evaluated the Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB South Korea marks at 906.67 dollars/ton and 885.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 18.34 dollars/ton from the 21st. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (1.3%), with only Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. Overseas, some PX plants plan to restart, and some are under maintenance. The overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons. The downstream PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9% [3][5][8]. - **PTA**: This week, there is no significant change in PTA plants. The PTA load on Thursday is 76.6%, and the operating rate calculated by PTA daily output/(domestic PTA capacity/365) is around 82.7%. In December 2025, China's PTA exports increased by 1% month - on - month to 361,934 tons. India's demand continued to grow, and exports to Pakistan increased, while exports to Vietnam and Egypt decreased [5][6]. - **MEG**: As of January 22, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.04% (down 1.39% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 79.40% (down 0.81% from the previous period). A 450,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia has stopped for maintenance and is expected to restart around the end of February and early March [6]. - **Polyester**: This week, a filament plant and a chip plant restarted, while a bottle - chip plant and four filament plants stopped for maintenance. The overall polyester load decreased. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland is around 86.7%. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers is basically maintained at around 75%. A 500,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip plant in South China has recently stopped for maintenance. On January 22, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were smooth, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 118%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on January 22 was generally good, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 7 - 80% [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester leading stocks' rise drives PX and PTA prices up. Before the Spring Festival, the downside price space is limited, but there is pressure after the festival. Future PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. Consider long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [8]. - PTA: Polyester leading stocks' rise leads to PTA price rebound. Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it turns into a stock - building pattern [9]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Pay attention to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. Supply pressure is still large, but considering basis, calendar spreads, and potential spring maintenance, the downside is restricted [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7232元，涨126元，涨幅1.77%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5144元，涨114元，涨幅2.27%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3674元，跌81元，跌幅2.16%；PF主力昨日收盘价6494元，涨96元，涨幅1.50%；SC主力昨日收盘价437元，跌0.4元，跌幅0.09% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR中国昨日价格888美元/吨，较前日涨9美元；PTA华东昨日价格5010元/吨，较前日涨38元；MEG现货昨日价格3595元/吨，较前日跌43元；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格549美元/吨，较前日涨0.5美元；Dated布伦特昨日价格68美元/桶，较前日涨0.69美元 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格330.5美元/吨，较前日涨4.42美元；PTA加工费昨日价格309.31元/吨，较前日跌70.31元；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64元/吨，较前日跌21.37元；瓶片加工费昨日价格149.42元/吨，较前日涨47.24元；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34美元/吨，与前日持平 [2]. Fundamental Information - **PX**: On January 20, PX prices rose. The estimated price of MOPJ in February is 546 dollars/ton CFR. Three Asian spot transactions in March were all at 887. The estimated PX price on January 20 was 888 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars from January 19. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (+1.3%), and only Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance. Some overseas PX plants plan to restart or are under maintenance, and the overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons [3][8]. - **PTA**: The PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9%. The Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Polyester production reduction plans increase, and the operating rate drops rapidly this week [8][9]. - **MEG**: From January 19 to January 25, the planned arrival quantity at major ports is about 205,000 tons. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate is 80.2% (+1.6%). Some plants adjust their loads, and some are under maintenance. Polyester filament manufacturers increase maintenance efforts, and the polyester load in February is expected to drop to 82 - 83% [6][10]. - **Polyester**: A 400,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing and a 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo are under planned maintenance and will restart in early March. A 50,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing restarted on January 20. On January 20, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 102%. The sales - to - production ratio of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments was weak, with an estimated average of 40 - 50% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - As of January 18, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,900 tons, an increase of 1,670 tons or 2.94% from the previous period [5] - The global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5] - Demand for rubber products is expected to grow moderately by 2026, but growth may be limited due to global trade barriers [5] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [6] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to weak maintenance plans for the first quarter [6] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA devices in the first quarter [6] - The PX market is expected to shift to a loose supply-demand pattern in the first quarter [6] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, which is below the historical average for this time of year [8] - New order sentiment is weak, and the operating rate of terminal factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is continuously declining [8] - PTA futures rose over 2% due to market optimism towards chemical stocks, but the sustainability of this strength is under scrutiny [8] - The PTA export volume in December 2025 was approximately 362,000 tons, an increase of 0.9% month-on-month and 40.3% year-on-year [10] Group 4: EG Market - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas load increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 80.2% [11] - Despite high shipping costs and potential import reductions due to Middle Eastern maintenance, domestic supply remains ample [11] - Weak new order performance and declining operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are expected to lead to inventory accumulation in January [11] Group 5: PF Market - The load of direct-spun polyester short fibers remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels [13] - Demand is expected to weaken as downstream yarn enterprises accelerate cash recovery and become cautious in procurement [13] - The operating rate of polyester yarn is expected to decline, further suppressing demand for short fibers [13] Group 6: PR Market - The bottle-grade polyester industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with ongoing supply contraction expected [16] - The current beverage consumption season is traditionally weak, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [16] - The PR market is expected to follow raw material prices, with short-term strategies favoring PR over PF [16] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, while spot prices remained stable [41] - Recent production increases have led to supply pressure, with soda ash production rising by 22,000 tons to 775,000 tons [41] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, and the overall market sentiment is weak [41] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a significant decline, while spot prices remained stable [43] - The latest glass inventory decreased by 125,000 tons to 2.651 million tons, but year-on-year figures show an increase of 20.9% [43] - The short-term glass market is expected to experience weak price fluctuations due to seasonal demand [43]