二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线逻辑或限制上方弹性。不过，仍 需警惕隐性补库预期和印尼消息面风险，低价时的隐性补库有可能导致短线累库预期受到挑战，同时，印 尼消息面的不确定性增加，印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年 或可能削减配额，印尼审批配额的量级或下一步动作仍需关注。同时，印尼的资源开采和冶炼端的治理动 作频繁，低位追空需密切关注印尼政策风险。因此，整体而言，精炼镍基本面压力进行了结构性转向，但 总量过剩的现实和预期对镍价上方仍有拖累，但是年底至明年一季度，需要关注隐性补库和印尼消息面的 影响，短线不建议低位追空，考虑中长线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied until 2030, driven by a surge in supply from Indonesia and other major producers [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production has increased from 30% of global supply five years ago to 70% currently, with no signs of slowing down [1] - Macquarie forecasts that Indonesia's nickel supply will grow by approximately 16% this year and next, extending into non-nickel pig iron products [1] - Indonesia's nickel production is projected to reach 2.4 to 2.5 million tons this year, with potential capacity increasing to 4 million tons by 2030 [1] - The government of Indonesia is tightening regulations on nickel mining, reviewing environmental permits, and has already seized some mining assets [1][2] Market Conditions - Despite a reduction of 500,000 tons in nickel supply from other regions since 2022, global supply is still expected to grow [2] - Nickel prices have fallen to a low point, with the London Metal Exchange price hitting $15,000 per ton, and many industry players facing negative cash flow at this price [2] - The demand for nickel is shifting towards traditional stainless steel applications as battery usage slows down [2][3] Demand Insights - The stainless steel industry accounts for approximately 65% of nickel demand, showing strong growth due to cheaper nickel prices [4] - In Europe and North America, the impact on the global primary nickel market is limited, with their share being less than 10% [4] - About 55%-60% of nickel production in Europe and North America uses recycled materials, compared to only 15% in China and Indonesia [4]