1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

2025 年 11 月 24 日 1) 9 月 12 日钢联资讯:因违反林业许可证规定,印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域,并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛, 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨,其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿,总矿区占地 4.7万公顷, 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响银矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2) 据外媒报道,中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 3）根据钢联９月 22 日资讯，印尼能源和矿产资源部通过矿产和煤炭总局正式对印度尼西亚各地区的 190 家采矿公司实施制裁。暂停是因为这些公司没有按照适用的规定提供索赔和退款担保,尽管之前已经 缓,宏观与消息短线批 钢价承压低位震荡。但下方想 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 张再宇 【基本面跟踪 镍基本面数据 | | Fre Ve - Hod XV 117 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Entertainment and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251106: Weak Cost Support, Hold Short Positions in Stainless Steel [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Nickel: On November 5, the main nickel contract fluctuated weakly. The trading volume was 123,448 lots (+577), and the open interest was 115,164 lots (-3,296). LME nickel fell 0.40%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium decreased. The supply side showed that nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel pig iron plants' losses deepened, and production decreased in November, while Indonesian production increased. Nickel pig iron inventories tightened. In November, domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals were weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation was at a low level, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel: On November 5, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 90,380 lots (-21,042), and the open interest was 74,412 lots (-1,663). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900). On the supply side, stainless steel production decreased in November, and 300-series production was basically flat. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices fell, and high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat. Overall, the fundamentals were loose, cost support was weak, and stainless steel was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts on November 5 showed various changes compared to the previous day and two weeks ago. For example, the near-month contract closed at 119,720 yuan/ton (+330), the continuous first contract at 120,030 yuan/ton (+330), etc. [2] - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and imported nickel also changed. For instance, SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 120,950 yuan/ton (-850) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts on November 5 also changed. For example, the near-month contract closed at 12,550 yuan/ton (0), the continuous first contract at 12,535 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of different types of stainless steel products such as 304/2B coils and 316L/2B coils decreased. For example, 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price was 17,950 yuan/ton (-500) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventory remained flat, and last week's 300-series social inventory was 613,600 tons (+900) [2]. Group 4: Industry News - EU Investigation: The European Commission announced an in - depth investigation into MMG's acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The deal, worth about $500 million, involves two nickel - iron mines and two Brazilian construction projects. The investigation aims to address concerns about potential impacts on the EU stainless steel industry's competitiveness and raw material prices. The deadline for the adjustment phase is March 20, 2026 [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt stated that its precursor business can achieve full self - supply of nickel raw materials. The Indonesian Pomalaa project is expected to be completed and put into production next year. The company will focus on upstream resource development and overseas material capacity layout to enhance self - supply and competitiveness [2]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Nickel: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price cannot effectively break through the support level, take profit and wait and see [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Previous Review**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's speech was unexpectedly hawkish, stating that there is no need to cut rates in December. The ECB and BOJ maintained their existing interest rate policies. Sino-US relations have eased, and the nickel price retreated significantly after the release of macro bullish expectations due to no obvious improvement in fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: The bottom support is solid, waiting for the driving force to boost the price. Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to shrink marginally, and the cost support remains. The real estate sales data is still sluggish, and the new energy consumption may drive the demand, but there is a risk of cooling demand at the end of the month. The supply remains high, and the pressure of oversupply remains unchanged. Sino-US relations have entered a stage of easing, and there is still room for macro boost. It is expected that the deep decline space of nickel price is limited [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data Summary - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel price decreased from 122,150 yuan/ton to 120,590 yuan/ton, and LME nickel price decreased from 15,361 dollars/ton to 15,226 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,248 tons to 252,102 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,578 tons to 31,388 tons [4]. 2. Market Condition Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: The Fed cut interest rates, while the ECB and BOJ maintained rates. Sino-US relations have eased, with the two sides reaching multiple consensuses and suspending some trade confrontation policies [3][5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB prices of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The nickel ore shipment volume in the Philippines decreased due to the rainy season, and the overall performance of the ore end was relatively strong [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The profit margins of some processes were significantly repaired, and the import volume increased significantly [7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high-nickel pig iron decreased slightly. In September, the nickel pig iron production in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The total inventory increased [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The domestic 300-series stainless steel production is expected to decrease in October, and the inventory increased slightly. The price of 300-series stainless steel decreased slightly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate remained stable, while the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate increased. In September, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased. The profit margins of some processes increased [10]. - **New Energy**: From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were flat. The sales data may gradually reflect the strong demand in November, but there is a risk of a sharp decline in sales growth in late November [10]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of pure nickel decreased, while the SHFE and LME inventories increased [11]. 3. Industry News - The Kalgoorlie nickel project of Ardea Resources has obtained a three-year extension of support from the Australian federal government [13]. - A nickel mine in the Philippines may face suspension of operation due to deforestation near a protected area [13]. - Ember urges Indonesia to decarbonize its nickel industry that relies on coal [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel price trends, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic and foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently following the broader market in a volatile pattern, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There are expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for the 2026 quota application. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3]. - The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand. The current quotes have been rising for several consecutive weeks, the market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries, which may remain strong [3]. - The price of ferronickel has insufficient upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity has significantly declined. It may operate weakly under the pressure of stainless - steel profits and weak demand. If ferronickel loses its support, the downward space for the downstream may expand [3]. - The spot trading of stainless steel has improved slightly, leading to a small rebound in the futures market. However, the sentiment of a lackluster peak season is strong. Currently, stainless steel has a large amount of inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum is insufficient compared with the previous continuous destocking cycle. The center of gravity of stainless steel may move down slightly, but export is favorable due to WTO rulings and certification exemptions [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel (Shanghai Futures Exchange)**: The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.79% and a historical percentile of 5.9% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month NI contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy far - month SS contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3]. Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,180 yuan/ton, with a 0% change; the Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,860 yuan/ton, down 0.39%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; the LME nickel 3M contract is 15,230 US dollars/ton, down 0.34% [6]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 60,391 lots, down 12.28%; the open interest is 50,388 lots, down 14.10% [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 27,026 tons, up 0.59% [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is - 240 yuan/ton, down 52.0% [6]. Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,665 yuan/ton, up 1%; the stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,595 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the stainless - steel continuous - two contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the stainless - steel continuous - three contract is 12,780 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume is 126,078 lots, up 1.04%; the open interest is 188,332 lots, down 4.98% [7]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts is 74,497 tons, down 0.16% [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract is 775 yuan/ton, up 4.73% [7]. Inventory Data - **Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel**: 47,708 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **LME Nickel Inventory**: 250,476 tons, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Stainless - Steel Social Inventory**: 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. - **Ferronickel Inventory**: 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6]. - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter [6]. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [5][6]. - The exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [5][6]. Negative Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6]. - The center of gravity of ferronickel has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened [6]. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation stage [6]. - The stainless - steel market shows a lackluster peak season, and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

Core Views Bullish Factors - China's economy shows resilience, and the semiconductor boom boosts nickel demand [3]. - New policies for electric vehicles encourage vehicle registration and usage, stimulating nickel consumption [3]. Bearish Factors - High inventories of LME nickel and SHFE nickel limit the upside potential of nickel prices [3]. - Limited fundamental changes and price drops indicate market pressure [3]. Trading Advisory View - Short - term macro sentiment is rising, supporting nickel prices to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [3]. Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 1,640 yuan (-1.34%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of SHFE nickel continuous contract 1 is 121,110 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan (-0.71%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of SHFE nickel continuous contract 2 is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan (-0.67%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of SHFE nickel continuous contract 3 is 121,480 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan (-0.67%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of LME nickel 3M is 15,445 dollars/ton, up 225 dollars week - on - week [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,875 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan (-1%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 12,875 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.12%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 12,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.19%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 12,990 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.04%) week - on - week [4]. Other Data - The position volume is 55,044 lots, down 15,566 lots (-22.1%) week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume is 81,612 lots, down 21,067 lots (-20.52%) week - on - week [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 25,866 tons, up 2,337 tons (9.93%) week - on - week [4]. - The basis of the main contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 920 yuan (-101.10%) week - on - week [4]. Spot Prices - The latest price of Jinchuan nickel is 123,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of imported nickel is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of 1 electrolytic nickel is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of nickel beans is 124,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of electrowon nickel is 121,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.04%) [4]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory is 41,055 tons, up 1,125 tons [4]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,450 tons, down 18 tons [6]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 897.2 tons, down 5.4 tons [6]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, down 614.5 tons [6]. Charts and Information Nickel Market - There are charts showing the price trends of SHFE nickel futures main contract, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading price, nickel spot average price, and nickel supply and inventory data including China's refined nickel monthly output, total domestic primary nickel supply, domestic social inventory, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore price, Chinese port nickel ore inventory, Chinese and Indonesian nickel pig iron output [7][8][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Downstream of Nickel - There are charts about downstream products of nickel such as battery - grade nickel sulfate price, premium, production profit margins of nickel beans producing nickel sulfate and electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly output, and ternary precursor monthly production capacity [22][23][24][25][26][27]. Stainless Steel Market - There are charts presenting the price trend of stainless steel futures main contract, stainless steel inventory, 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin, and stainless steel monthly output [9][10][30][31][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 2nd, the Shanghai nickel main - contract first rose then declined, with reduced trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and basis premium widened. The supply side saw stable nickel ore prices, decreased nickel ore arrivals last week, and increased port inventories. Ferronickel plant losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production and decreased ferronickel inventory. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability shrank. The demand side had reduced ternary production, increased stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. Considering inventory changes and external factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Indonesian unrest, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on September 2nd, the stainless - steel main - contract fluctuated at a high level, with reduced trading volume and open interest. The spot market had better low - price trading, and basis premium decreased. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased last week. The supply side will see increased stainless - steel production in September. The demand side has weak terminal demand, while the cost side has rising high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Given the large impact of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals are loose, cost provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is also recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel decreased by 43,115 hands to 128,782 hands, and the open interest decreased by 1,201 hands to 90,762 hands. The LME 3 - month nickel price fell 1.29%. The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products (nickel beans, electrolytic nickel, ferronickel, etc.) mostly decreased. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract decreased, while the premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) remained stable [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME nickel inventory increased, the social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,402 tons, and the inventory in the Shanghai bonded area remained unchanged [2]. - **Industry News**: In August, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Greenmei stated that its nickel project in Indonesia was operating normally without being affected by local unrest. The Indonesian nickel ore association reported that the nickel price in this cycle decreased compared to the previous one, with the September 1st nickel ore reference price (HMA) set at $14,999.64 per kiloton, lower than the previous cycle. Some nickel products' prices showed different trends, with the MHP price rising significantly [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) had different changes. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel main - contract decreased by 34,264 hands to 130,629 hands, and the open interest decreased by 9,528 hands to 91,035 hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various stainless - steel products (304 series, 316 series, etc.) had different changes, with some prices rising and some remaining stable. The basis between the 304/2B coil (Wuxi) average price and the active contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of stainless - steel decreased by 3,200 tons. Among them, the inventory of 200 - series stainless steel increased by 2,400 tons, the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 3,300 tons, and the inventory of 400 - series decreased by 2,300 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, stainless - steel production is expected to increase, but terminal demand is weak. The cost side has rising high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices [2].

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For electrolytic nickel, wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices after the Indonesian riots subside. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 116,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton due to loose supply - demand and high production despite supply concerns from the riots and fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations [3][90]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate between 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton because of increased production, average demand, but strong cost support [4][116]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 1.75% weekly, with trading volume reaching 671,400 lots (+263,900) and open interest at 89,600 lots (-21,800). LME nickel rose 2.13% weekly, with trading volume at 28,300 lots (-900) [10]. - The basis showed a premium of 850 yuan/ton [12]. 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, while the shipping price from the Philippines to China increased [18]. - In June, Philippine nickel ore exports rose. In July, China's nickel ore imports reached 5.01 million tons, up 15.2% month - on - month and 43.6% year - on - year [22]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals decreased by 308,200 tons, and port inventories increased by 540,000 wet tons [24]. Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose 12.5 yuan/nickel point, and 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron rose 20 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and that to scrap stainless steel narrowed [30]. - In July, China's nickel pig iron imports were 836,000 tons, down 19.7% month - on - month but up 1.8% year - on - year. August imports are expected to be flat [34]. - Nickel iron mills' losses shrank, and the operating rate increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production and operating rate rose, and in September, Indonesia's did the same. Nickel iron inventory decreased [36][41][43]. Electrolytic Nickel - In September, the operating rate and production of refined nickel increased, and export profitability expanded [47][52]. - In July, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel increased [56]. 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In September, stainless steel production plans increased, especially for 300 - series stainless steel [61]. - In July, stainless steel exports increased by 6.7% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year, while imports decreased by 33.3% month - on - month and 39.0% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in August [65]. New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was minimal [71]. - In September, the production plan of ternary precursors increased by 12.9% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year, while that of ternary materials decreased by 1.5% month - on - month but increased by 26.2% year - on - year [74]. - In August, the production plan of nickel sulfate decreased by 2.5% month - on - month and 10.9% year - on - year [76]. - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month but up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month but up 27.4% year - on - year [81]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [82]. - Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons [86]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally sourced nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte [89]. 1.5 Market Outlook for Nickel - Strategy: Wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices after the Indonesian riots subside. - Operating range: 116,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. - Logic: Supply - side factors include stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals, and increased port inventories; narrowing losses for domestic iron mills, decreased domestic production plans, increased Indonesian production plans, and reduced nickel iron inventories; increased refined nickel production and expanded export profitability. Demand - side factors are decreased ternary material production plans, increased precursor production plans, increased stainless - steel mill production plans, and stable alloy electroplating demand. Inventory - side factors are decreased pure nickel social inventory and stable bonded - area inventory. Overall, despite Fed rate - cut uncertainties and supply concerns from the riots, high pure nickel production leads to loose supply - demand and expected wide - range price fluctuations [90]. 2.2 Cost and Profit for Stainless Steel - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices increased, providing strong cost support [97]. - The losses of 200 - series stainless steel widened, those of 300 - series narrowed, and those of 400 - series widened [101]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspects of Stainless Steel - In September, stainless steel production plans increased, especially for 300 - series stainless steel [105]. - In July, stainless steel exports increased, and imports decreased. Exports and imports are expected to decline in August [108]. 2.4 Inventory Side for Stainless Steel - Domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. 200 - series inventory increased, while 300 - series and 400 - series decreased [114]. 2.5 Market Outlook for Stainless Steel - Strategy: Wait and see. - Operating range: 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton. - Logic: With increased production, average demand, strong cost support, and overall and 300 - series inventory reduction, the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate within a range [116].