镍不锈钢产业链周报 2026/1/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z0023138 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛， 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷， 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 3）根据钢联 9 月 22 日资讯，印尼能源和矿产资源部通过矿产和煤炭总局正式对印度尼西亚各地区的 190 家采矿公司实施制裁。暂停是因为这些公司没有按照适用的规定提供索赔和退款担保，尽管之前已经 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | ...

雅加达讯 —— 印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）于 12 月 22 日（周一）发布印尼镍价指数（INPI）。最新数据 显示，镍下游产品价格出现上涨态势，而镍矿价格相较往期发布则趋于稳定。 来源：市场资讯 | Products (USD/mt) | Price Range | | Average Change | Date Release | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nickel Ore 1.2% (CIF) | 22-23 | 22.5 | 0 | Dec 22, 2025 | | Nickel Ore 1.6% (CIF) | 50.8-52.8 | 51.8 | -0.1 | Dec 22, 2025 | | Nickel Pig Iron (FOB) | 110.47 - 110.47 | 110.47 | +0.15 | Dec 22, 2025 | | High-Grade Nickel Matte (FOB) | 13,017 - 13,017 | 13,017 | 1 +48 | Dec 22, 2025 | | MHP FOB Price | 12,736 ...

镍行业专家交流 20251221 2025 年，印尼镍产业经历了多项重大变化和政策调整。首先，4 月份政府发布 了新的特许权使用费（资源税），将镍矿的税率从 10%提高到 14%至 19%。 此外，镍硫、镍铁、镍生铁的税率也有所增加。这一措施通过 19 号政府条例 颁布并已实施。 6 月份，在雅加达举行的第二次关键金属国际会议期间，一群 抗议者冲入会场，抗议印尼斯旺岛的镍矿开采。尽管事件很快平息，但导致政 府取消了四个矿权，其中包括中国公司万象的一个矿权。 8 月份，政府出台了 RKB（营业开采计划）政策，将原本三年的提交周期缩短为一年，并要求在 10 月份重新提交。这增加了矿山企业的负担，因为每年都需缴纳一定费用。 9 月 份，印尼成立林业特别工作组，对青山集团在维达贝地区的 EV 项目进行了突 击检查，并封锁了一些违规区域。此外，还涉及埃克曼公司的股份，这种前所 未有的举动对外资企业产生了影响。 11 月初，新任国防部长巴拉伯沃带领高 官视察苏拉威西青山园区，并质疑其内部管理问题，同时查封了一家中国上市 公司的选炼矿山。此外，总统令 28 号规定未来不再批准四类产品企业，包括 镍生铁、镍铁、高冰镍和 MH ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线逻辑或限制上方弹性。不过，仍 需警惕隐性补库预期和印尼消息面风险，低价时的隐性补库有可能导致短线累库预期受到挑战，同时，印 尼消息面的不确定性增加，印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年 或可能削减配额，印尼审批配额的量级或下一步动作仍需关注。同时，印尼的资源开采和冶炼端的治理动 作频繁，低位追空需密切关注印尼政策风险。因此，整体而言，精炼镍基本面压力进行了结构性转向，但 总量过剩的现实和预期对镍价上方仍有拖累，但是年底至明年一季度，需要关注隐性补库和印尼消息面的 影响，短线不建议低位追空，考虑中长线 ...

有色金属周报——镍与不锈钢 修复后震荡运行 2025年12月9日 研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 TEL：010-8229 3229 ⚫ 策略:观望 ⚫ 运行区间：110000-125000 ⚫ 逻辑：供给端，镍矿价格持平，上周到港量下降，港口去库； 国内铁厂亏损幅度收窄，国内铁厂排产下降，印尼铁厂排产 下降，镍铁去库；国内精炼镍排产下降，进口亏损扩大。需 求端，三元材料排产下降，前驱体排产下降；不锈钢厂排产 下降；合金电镀需求稳定。库存端，上周纯镍社会库存增加， 保税区库存持平。综上，基本面偏松，库存压力大，但估值 处于低位，降息预期反复，价格修复后，预计镍价区间震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：美联储降息预期变化、需求改善超预期、印尼与菲律宾供应端扰动 不锈钢 ⚫ 策略:等待高空机会 ⚫ 运行区间：11800-12800 ⚫ 逻辑：基本面来看，不锈钢厂排产下降，终端需求较弱。 成本端企稳，镍生铁价格上涨，高碳铬铁价格持平。库存 方面，总库存去库，300系去库。综上，成本端企稳，但 基本面仍弱，预计不锈钢低位震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：下游需求超预期、宏观情绪快速变化 1 ...

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司关经中国证监会批准设立的规律经营机构、已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和党整性不修任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求提普内容的客观、公正,但文中的观点、精沧和建议 仅供参考。不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果。本公司概不负责。（风险提示:期市有风险 八市需谨慎） 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20251208:修复后区间震荡 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-11-28 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-05 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 117450.00 | 117340.00 | 116730.00 | 110.00 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20251203: Weak Recovery after Decline [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - On December 2nd, the main nickel contract fluctuated within a range. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery after getting support around 115,000 [1] - On December 2nd, the main stainless - steel contract also fluctuated within a range. Given the loose fundamentals and the weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On December 2nd, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel near - month contract was 117,700 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 88,522 lots, a decrease of 57,307 lots, and the open interest was 121,924 lots, a decrease of 967 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 14,900 US dollars/ton, with the closing price of the electronic trading session at 14,740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 135 US dollars, and the closing price of the on - site trading session at 14,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 128 US dollars. The trading volume was 8,350 lots, a decrease of 2,233 lots [2] Price Spreads - The basis (spot - to - futures) of SMM I electrolytic nickel average price and the active nickel futures contract closing price was 1,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [2] - The spreads between different - term contracts of Shanghai nickel futures showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 390 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat. The amount of nickel ore arriving at the port last week increased, and the port inventory decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic and Indonesian production schedules decreasing in December. The electrolytic nickel production schedule in China increased in December, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports decreased [1] - On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials decreased, stainless - steel plants' production schedules decreased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [1] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [1] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On December 2nd, the closing price of the stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 95,108 lots, a decrease of 68,491 lots, and the open interest was 102,135 lots, a decrease of 6,334 lots [2] Price Spreads - The basis (spot - to - futures) of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and the active stainless - steel futures contract decreased by 20 yuan to 735 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the stainless - steel production schedule decreased in December, especially for the 300 - series [1] - On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak [1] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons [1] Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1] Indonesian Nickel - Related Commodities - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) showed that the prices of various nickel - related commodities in Indonesia had different trends. The prices of some products were stable, while others had small increases. For example, the average price of 1.2% - grade nickel ore (CIF) was 22 US dollars/ton, remaining the same as the previous period, and the average price of 1.6% - grade nickel ore (CIF) was 52.5 US dollars/ton, also stable. The price of downstream products such as NPI (high - grade, FOB) increased slightly by 0.03 US dollars to 109.61 US dollars/ton, and the price of high - grade nickel sulfate (FOB) increased significantly by 69 US dollars to 13,259 US dollars/ton [1] Inventory of Nickel and Stainless - Steel in China - The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 9790,000 wet tons in the week of November 28th, a decrease of 30,000 wet tons compared with the previous week [2] - The total inventory of stainless - steel in China was 935,300 tons in the week of November 28th, an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of 200 - series stainless - steel was 180,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons; the inventory of 300 - series was 630,500 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons; and the inventory of 400 - series was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [2] Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [1] - For stainless - steel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, with the nickel market also affected by various factors such as policy changes and production adjustments in Indonesia [1]. - The trend intensity for nickel is +1, and for stainless steel is also +1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 114,050, down 1,330 compared to the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, up 1 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 138,203, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 233,924 [1]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 115,000, down 1,600 compared to the previous day; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 891, down 4 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Stainless Steel Product Prices**: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 12,675, up 200 compared to the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu was 13,250, unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Mining Policy**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 nickel metal tons per month. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel - related products has been suspended [1][2][4]. - **International Trade Policy**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [2][3]. - **Production Adjustment**: Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons of output [4]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4].