行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2026 年 2 月） 基本面韧性强，建议重视业绩窗口期交运红 推荐（维持） 利配置机会 交通运输 2026 年 02 月 27 日 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0. ...

2月24日，农历正月初八，马年上班第一天，周口港中心港区范营作业区汽笛长鸣、铲斗起舞，奏响了 复工的"春之序曲"。 步入作业区，一幅壮观的"水陆联运图"在眼前铺展：沙颍河畔，40余艘货船有序停泊；码头上，近百辆 卡车穿梭，轰鸣出经济发展的活力；半空中，红色的巨型吊臂挥舞旋转，精准抓取、装卸矿石或者沙 子…… "这是春节后第一趟活儿，可得加把劲儿，争取开个好头儿！"堆场旁，货车司机邢师傅言语间透出对新 一年的期盼。他的货车刚装完30多吨沙子，即将发往平顶山市宝丰县。说话间，他已熟练地为车厢搭盖 好帆布篷。 在不远处的6号港池4号泊位，"豫周江河9999号"船主刘影站在船头甲板上，"等这船货装满，俺就出 发！"大年初六，她的船在4号港池卸完从江苏运来的铁矿石，眼下正等着装运化肥大包。 范营作业区高效运转，从码头到后方调度，全员正以饱满热情开启新年新局。"我们假期不停歇，自大 年初一起，码头装卸作业就没有中断。"范营作业区相关负责人说。 数据显示，春节假期，范营作业区完成货物吞吐量近3万吨，为企业的原材料供应和产品外运提供了坚 实保障。"新的一年，我们将持续优化作业流程，提升转运效率，让河南制造从这里通江达海、畅行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the bustling operations at the Tangshan Port, particularly in the Jing-Tang Port area, as it prepares for the upcoming Spring Festival, emphasizing the commitment to safety and efficiency in cargo handling [1][6]. Group 1: Operational Highlights - The port is experiencing high cargo volumes as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to intensified operations [2]. - The "Xinglong" vessel, carrying 225,000 tons of iron ore, is scheduled to dock at the Jing-Tang Port, showcasing the port's readiness and operational efficiency [3]. - The port's dispatch center is described as the "command hub" for production operations, ensuring smooth coordination among various tasks and personnel [3]. Group 2: Efficiency and Safety Measures - The unloading process utilizes a high-efficiency method that increases average unloading speed by over 5% and reduces cleaning time by more than 20% [4]. - The unloading efficiency for the "Xinglong" vessel is projected to reach 5,818 tons per hour, a 39% improvement compared to similar vessels [5]. - Safety protocols are emphasized, with reminders for workers to secure safety gear and conduct thorough checks to prevent hazards [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the port industry, with a focus on infrastructure and domestic demand supporting the industry fundamentals [7][8]. Core Insights - The growth rate of cargo and container throughput in Chinese ports is slowing down, influenced by GDP and import-export growth deceleration. Coastal ports dominate in terms of throughput, with significant differentiation in growth rates among major ports [8][9]. - Since 2018, investment in inland waterway transportation has consistently exceeded that of coastal ports, leading to structural overcapacity in coastal ports. However, there remains a demand for terminal upgrades, optimization of port layouts, and channel construction, with a clear trend towards larger and more specialized port berths [8][9]. - The overall revenue of sampled port enterprises is steadily increasing, with strong operational cash flow capabilities. Future capital expenditures are expected to remain substantial due to increased financing driven by port-related project investments [8][9]. - The report anticipates that global economic growth will remain low, with uncertainties surrounding trade policies potentially impacting China's foreign trade. However, domestic demand is expected to expand, providing some support for port throughput [8][9]. Industry Overview Macroeconomic Environment - In 2025, China's economy is projected to stabilize, with domestic demand expected to support cargo throughput at ports. The economic policies are characterized by a multi-dimensional collaborative approach, focusing on stabilizing growth and enhancing domestic consumption [9][10]. - The port industry is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, with the performance of cargo and container throughput closely linked to economic conditions and foreign trade developments [10][11]. Industry Policies and Regulatory Environment - The government has introduced various policies to guide the development of smart, green, safe, and efficient ports, aiming to enhance the competitive capabilities of ports through a market-oriented pricing system [11][12]. - Recent policies emphasize the integration of rail-water transport and the construction of a modern comprehensive transportation system, with significant investments expected in port infrastructure [11][12]. Industry Operating Conditions - The throughput growth of Chinese ports has shown signs of slowing down, with a notable differentiation in growth rates among major coastal ports. In 2024, the total cargo throughput reached 1,759.5 million tons, growing by 3.7% [16][20]. - Container throughput growth has also slowed, with a total of 33.2 million TEUs in 2024, reflecting a 7.0% increase [17][20]. Financial Performance - Sampled port enterprises have shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 643.36 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, maintaining a stable operational performance [34][36]. - The cash flow from operating activities has been strong, with a cash income ratio exceeding 100%, indicating that cash flow can meet capital expenditure needs [36][39]. Debt Levels - The total debt of sampled port enterprises has increased, with a total debt of 1,162.86 billion yuan by September 2025, primarily for new terminal construction and upgrades [41][43]. - The short-term debt ratio is moderate, with a significant portion of financing coming from bank loans and bond issuances [41][43]. Debt Repayment Capacity - Most sampled port enterprises face manageable short-term repayment pressures, with strong long-term repayment capabilities. However, some enterprises have heavier debt burdens and historical personnel liabilities that require attention [44][45]. Bond Market Performance - The report notes a decrease in bond issuance rates for port enterprises, with a total of 180 bonds issued in 2025, reflecting a 7.57% increase in issuance scale [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the arrival of two ships at the Caofeidian Port area of Tangshan Port for unloading operations, indicating ongoing maritime activities and logistics operations in the region [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1 - On January 13, two ships were assisted by tugboats to dock at the Caofeidian Port area of Tangshan Port [1][3][5] - The unloading operations of one of the ships at the Caofeidian Port area were captured in aerial photographs [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The port sector is expected to experience a rally after crossing the cycle, driven by the strengthening of reform policies in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the continuation of sector rotation and active themes in 2026 [1][11]. Industry Overview - The port industry is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, exhibiting strong economic cyclicality, with high overall entry barriers. Future regional cooperation and collaborative development will be key themes for industry growth [2][12]. - In 2025, the port sector's operating revenue is projected to grow steadily, with slight fluctuations in profitability, indicating overall stable operations [2][12]. Port Production Performance - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national port cargo throughput reached 16.75 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Coastal ports accounted for 10.65 billion tons (3.7% growth), while inland ports handled 6.1 billion tons (5.7% growth) [4][14]. - The national port container throughput for the same period was 32 million TEUs, up 6.6% year-on-year, with coastal ports handling 29 million TEUs (6.9% growth) and inland ports 3.884 million TEUs (4.9% growth) [4][14]. Market Capitalization Trends - The port sector index rose to 1420.75 points in 2025, a 7.09% increase year-on-year, although the overall performance was weaker than the market average [6][16]. - Shanghai Port Group had a market capitalization of 126.178 billion yuan, ranking third in the 2025 China Port and Shipping Company Market Capitalization Rankings, despite a year-on-year decline of 11.44% [6][16]. - Ningbo Port's market capitalization was 70.618 billion yuan, down 5.71%, while it is expected to achieve a cargo throughput of 1.216 billion tons, a 7.21% increase year-on-year [6][16]. Notable Company Performances - China Merchants Port had a market capitalization of 63.558 billion yuan in 2025, up 9.39%, maintaining its position in the top ten [8][18]. - COSCO Shipping Ports reported a market capitalization of 20.029 billion yuan, a 25.01% increase, with a total throughput of 11.3 million TEUs, up 5.6% [8][18]. - Qingdao Port achieved a cargo throughput of 546 million tons, a 2.41% increase, and a container throughput of 25.84 million TEUs, a 7.11% increase, despite a market capitalization decline of 6.75% [10][20].

Core Insights - Despite global trade uncertainties, China's port throughput has shown resilient growth, with a total of 16.75 billion tons in cargo throughput for the first 11 months of 2025, marking a 4.4% year-on-year increase [1] - China's goods trade exports reached 24.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year growth [1] - Major ports like Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan have maintained their positions as global leaders, with Ningbo-Zhoushan becoming the first port to exceed 1.4 billion tons in annual cargo throughput [1][5] Port Performance - Shanghai Port achieved a container throughput of 55.06 million TEUs, maintaining its position as the world's busiest port for the 16th consecutive year [5] - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's container throughput surpassed 40 million TEUs for the first time [5] - Emerging ports like Yangpu and Beibu Gulf have shown significant growth, with Yangpu's container throughput increasing by 65% [5] Factors Driving Growth - China's ports have enhanced their competitiveness in the global shipping system amid slowing global trade and geopolitical tensions [2] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the implementation of smart and green shipping policies are reshaping the port development environment [2][11] - The stability in cargo and container volumes indicates China's growing economic and international trade capacity [3] Market Trends - China's exports to emerging markets such as the EU, Latin America, and Africa have seen robust growth, with trade with ASEAN increasing by 8.5% [6] - The shift in China's export market structure reflects a broader trend of globalization, with Chinese companies playing a crucial role in global supply chains [6] - The demand for containers between Asia and Africa has surged by 22.6% from 2019 to 2025, significantly outpacing growth in other regions [7] Future Outlook - The development of smart and green shipping policies is expected to accelerate the digitalization and automation of ports, enhancing their roles as logistics hubs [12] - The potential for new supply chain organizations and trade routes is anticipated, particularly with the rise of regional trade agreements like RCEP [7][10] - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the establishment of new shipping routes, such as the Arctic route, may lead to structural adjustments in global shipping lanes [9][10]

Core Insights - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has achieved a cargo throughput of over 1.4 billion tons in 2025, marking its 17th consecutive year as the world's largest port by cargo volume [3] Group 1 - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is the first port globally to exceed an annual cargo throughput of 1.4 billion tons [3]

Core Insights - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port has achieved a cargo throughput of over 1.4 billion tons in 2025, maintaining its position as the world's largest port for 17 consecutive years [3]. Group 1 - Ningbo-Zhoushan Port is the first port globally to exceed an annual cargo throughput of 1.4 billion tons [3].

Group 1: Infrastructure Industry Market Performance Review - The infrastructure sub-sectors underperformed relative to the Wind All A and Shenwan Transportation indices in 2025, with the Shenwan Highway Index down 9.2%, the Shenwan Railway Index down 13.3%, and the Shenwan Port Index down 1.4%, lagging behind the Wind All A by 17.9, 22, and 10 percentage points respectively [6][11] - The overall market style shift has led to a significant decline in the highway sector, which has seen a cumulative drop of 11.7% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 27.8 percentage points [17] Group 2: Highway Sector - The highway sector's fundamentals remain stable, with traffic revenue affected by road network changes and expansions, leading to varied performance among companies [20][24] - In 2025, the national highway passenger volume reached 8.57 billion people, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, while freight volume was 31.91 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [20] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on individual stocks, particularly Anhui Expressway, which has shown significant revenue growth due to recent acquisitions and expansions [31] Group 3: Railway Sector - The railway sector has shown steady growth in passenger volume, with a total of 3.54 billion passengers transported in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [35] - Freight volume in the railway sector has been under pressure, with a total of 3.91 billion tons transported in the same period, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% [36] - The outlook for the railway sector remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in passenger volume and potential improvements in freight volume as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [43] Group 4: Port Sector - The port sector has demonstrated stable performance, with total cargo throughput reaching 1.357 billion tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [48] - Container throughput has outperformed bulk cargo, with a total of 26 million TEUs handled, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [56] - Investment recommendations highlight Qingdao Port and China Merchants Port as attractive options due to their low valuations and strong cash flow, with expectations for dividend growth [79]