孙嘉赓 浙商证券分析师: 各位投资者，大家下午好。我是浙商证券费英宇金融科技首席分析师。那么首先，欢迎大 家来参加我们今天的这个 Web 3 周周谈，这已经是我们 2026 年的第七期，也是这个农历 马年的第一期。那么首先也先祝参会的各位投资者马年大吉。马上发财，那么在新的一年 能够这个投资业绩长虹。那么我们今天，这个主要是想带大家回顾一下，在这个整个漫长 的这个春节假期。这个整个 Web 3，都发生了哪些，一些重要的变化？以及我们也重申一 下我们对这个 Web 3 赛道长期看好的这样的一个观点。 那么首先的话，这个春节期间，这个确实海外还是挺热闹的，就是我们也看到了，比如说 这个像韩国的这个股市，这个券商股、保险股都出现了比较大的这样的一个涨幅。那么包 括的话，这个美国那边，其实我们也看到了很多跟 AI 相关的这样的一些行情的一些变化。 那么这个香港这一边，其实我们也能够看到部分的 Web 3 的标的，出现了这个底部的一 些比较明显的抬升的这个迹象。那么所以说，应该来说假期，整个资本市场还是比较的有 亮点的。但是，可能与之形成比较鲜明对比的，就是整个币圈。 那么币圈的话，实际上应该来说还是处在一个比较低迷的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of real assets is crucial for the future development of stablecoins, as the stability of stablecoins fundamentally depends on the quality of the underlying assets [1][3]. Regulatory Framework - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Management Ordinance, effective from August 1, 2025, marks Hong Kong as the first Asian financial center to comprehensively regulate the stablecoin market [2][5]. - The ordinance requires all stablecoin transactions to occur through regulated exchanges, prohibiting direct peer-to-peer transfers between wallets, and mandates strict KYC (Know Your Customer) and KYT (Know Your Transaction) compliance [3][17]. - This regulatory approach, while enhancing compliance, may undermine the decentralized advantages of blockchain technology [3][17]. Market Dynamics - Major Chinese tech companies like JD.com and Ant Group are actively entering the Hong Kong stablecoin market, primarily to enhance cross-border payment efficiency and capitalize on the stablecoin's profit model [16][18]. - The dominance of USDT and USDC in the global market creates challenges for new entrants, as user acceptance is heavily influenced by existing network effects [16][19]. Asset Quality and Stability - The stability of stablecoins is directly linked to the quality of the underlying assets; assets with clear ownership and predictable cash flows, such as fiat currencies or gold, provide greater stability [11][19]. - The potential for tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) hinges on the clarity of ownership and the ability to generate reliable cash flows [11][12]. Global Financial Implications - Stablecoins are reshaping the international monetary system, allowing tech companies to create currency-like assets, which poses significant challenges to traditional financial frameworks [4][30]. - The reliance on the US dollar as the primary backing for most stablecoins is due to the large offshore dollar market, but this dominance may not be permanent [19][20]. Future Considerations - The relationship between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is complex, with potential models suggesting that CBDCs could serve as a foundation for stablecoins issued by tech companies [26][27]. - The balance between innovation and regulation remains a critical issue, as overly stringent regulations may stifle technological advancements in the stablecoin space [23][30].

大摩宏观闭门会：政治局会议前瞻，稳定币解读及房地产市场更新 20250630 发言人 00:00 发言人 00:09 大家上午好，欢迎来到 1 周一度的大模宏观策略谈，我是罗丙邢志强。大家肯定很关注接下来七月份有 政治局会议对下半年的经济政策定调，会不会有一些新的调整变化。我从昨天开始，周末就到了北京， 这周也会参加一些闭门研讨。我想现在各个部委、各个智库、各个体制内都在紧锣密鼓的分析经济形势 为决策层供稿谏言准备一些政策选项。我今天和我们团队的三位主讲嘉宾，包括蔡志鹏博士经济学家， 包括张磊，我们大宗商品和战略原材料行业的主管，以及安全我们香港房地产的分析师一起会聚焦四个 问题。第一点就是政治局会议对下半年经济政策节奏和空间的判断。第二点则是最近把中美博弈的因素 扩展到货币结算体系，包括人民币稳定币以及稀土这张牌中国接下来会怎么打？其实稀土小院高墙这张 牌跟稳定币人民币的贸易结算之间是有互相促进的可能性，我们会做一些探讨和分析。 发言人 01:40 这里面尽管今天 lao ra 我们的首席策略是由于在休假错过一周，但我们也会简单的涉及到一点，从过 去三四个月我们讲到的东稳西大，就美国的各种政策不确定性带来的 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Real Estate Market - **Key Economic Indicators**: - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 reached 5.2%, with a second-quarter growth of 5% [2][10] - The nominal GDP is affected by deflation, but actual GDP meets targets, indicating limited short-term policy shifts [2][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Drivers**: - Growth in the first half was primarily driven by export surges and proactive fiscal policies, including local debt swaps and social welfare spending [2][10] - However, growth showed signs of slowing in June, prompting a focus on quarterly reports rather than monthly data [2][10] - **U.S. Market Performance**: - The U.S. financial market, particularly the stock market, has been performing strongly, with oil prices down 20% year-on-year, reducing inflationary pressures [4][19] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, with potential cuts anticipated in the following years [4][19] - **Stablecoin Development**: - Beijing is increasingly focused on the development of stablecoins to reduce reliance on the SWIFT dollar system, with Hong Kong testing a stablecoin pilot [5][7] - The aim is to enhance financial autonomy and facilitate cross-border trade settlements [5][7] - **Programmable Payments**: - Programmable payments are applicable in various scenarios, including resource exports and supply chain payments, particularly in the context of China's dominance in the rare earth market [8][9] Important but Overlooked Content - **Real Estate Market Trends**: - The Hong Kong residential market is showing signs of stabilization, with prices expected to remain flat in 2025 after a significant drop in previous years [28][29] - Factors supporting this recovery include rising rents, improved affordability, and reduced land supply [29][30] - **Investment Potential**: - Companies like Henderson Land and Sun Hung Kai Properties are viewed as having strong investment potential due to their solid performance and strategic positioning [31] - Conversely, New World Development and Wharf Holdings are viewed with caution due to financial challenges and cash flow issues [32] - **Global Rare Earth Supply Chain**: - The global rare earth supply chain is expected to gradually detach from Chinese control, with new projects emerging in various countries by 2030 [21][22] - China has implemented strict controls on rare earth technology exports, impacting the ability of foreign firms to replicate production capabilities [22][23] - **Future Economic Outlook**: - The third quarter of 2025 may see increased downward pressure on GDP growth, potentially falling below 4.5% [17][18] - The upcoming political bureau meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with new policies likely to be introduced in the fall [2][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Guotai Junan International to provide cryptocurrency trading services marks a significant breakthrough for Chinese financial institutions, catalyzing a bullish sentiment in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the financial sector [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown a recent recovery, with the ChiNext Index surpassing 2100 points and the Hang Seng Index stabilizing above 24000 points, indicating a technical breakout [3]. - The military industry sector is leading the market due to expectations surrounding military parades and equipment upgrades, while high-growth areas like computing, solid-state batteries, and autonomous driving are attracting capital [3]. - Non-bank financial sectors, including brokerages and fintech companies, are benefiting from capital market reforms and consumer credit support policies, suggesting a potential for continued valuation recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Regulatory and Policy Environment - The issuance of 19 consumption promotion measures by six departments, along with a large-scale policy loan tool, is driving a recovery in service consumption, education, and local living sectors [3]. - The approval of a full license for virtual asset trading by a Chinese brokerage signifies a shift from traditional brokerage services to a model encompassing digital assets, consulting, and cross-border payments [4]. Group 3: Financial Technology and Investment Opportunities - The current market rally is driven by speculative themes rather than a comprehensive bull market based on economic recovery or earnings growth, primarily triggered by the approval of stablecoin trading [5]. - Stablecoins, due to their blockchain foundation, enhance cross-border payment efficiency, presenting significant potential in international finance [5]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) emphasizes the rapid development of digital currency payments and blockchain technology, suggesting that companies with strong underlying technology capabilities will play a crucial role in the evolving financial landscape [6]. Group 4: Credit Market and Banking Sector - The financial conditions index indicates a slight tightening, reflecting marginally tighter monetary conditions, while the bond market remains relatively loose [6][7]. - The recent capital increase of 520 billion yuan by state-owned banks, fully subscribed by the Ministry of Finance, demonstrates government support for banks to bolster capital and stabilize financial conditions [7]. - The potential for accelerated credit issuance by banks following capital expansion is expected to benefit urban investment, infrastructure, and policy-related corporate bonds [7].