孙嘉赓 浙商证券分析师: 各位投资者，大家下午好。我是浙商证券费英宇金融科技首席分析师。那么首先，欢迎大 家来参加我们今天的这个 Web 3 周周谈，这已经是我们 2026 年的第七期，也是这个农历 马年的第一期。那么首先也先祝参会的各位投资者马年大吉。马上发财，那么在新的一年 能够这个投资业绩长虹。那么我们今天，这个主要是想带大家回顾一下，在这个整个漫长 的这个春节假期。这个整个 Web 3，都发生了哪些，一些重要的变化？以及我们也重申一 下我们对这个 Web 3 赛道长期看好的这样的一个观点。 那么首先的话，这个春节期间，这个确实海外还是挺热闹的，就是我们也看到了，比如说 这个像韩国的这个股市，这个券商股、保险股都出现了比较大的这样的一个涨幅。那么包 括的话，这个美国那边，其实我们也看到了很多跟 AI 相关的这样的一些行情的一些变化。 那么这个香港这一边，其实我们也能够看到部分的 Web 3 的标的，出现了这个底部的一 些比较明显的抬升的这个迹象。那么所以说，应该来说假期，整个资本市场还是比较的有 亮点的。但是，可能与之形成比较鲜明对比的，就是整个币圈。 那么币圈的话，实际上应该来说还是处在一个比较低迷的 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月22日，A股三大指数集体走高，跨年行情拉开序幕，截止午盘，中证A500ETF南方（159352）放量 上涨0.99%，成交额54.94亿元。 近期资金大幅流入中证A500ETF南方（159352），截止12月19日，A500ETF南方（159352）近13天获得 连续资金净流入，该基金最新份额294.18亿份，规模356.84亿元。近5日资金净流入101亿元，近10日净 流入139亿元，近20日净流入141亿元。 业内人士表示，近期A500ETF的巨量交投与规模跃升，反映出机构化、指数化投资趋势的深化，以 及"耐心资本"入市渠道的进一步畅通。 晨星中国基金研究中心高级分析师李一鸣认为，近期A500ETF成交额放大可能是受到跨年行情预期与政 策催化的影响，国内外宽松政策预期升温推动资金布局跨年行情，A500指数作为重要的宽基品种，成 为资金配置工具。并且，政策引导耐心资本入市，宽基ETF成为增量资金入场的重要通道。 李一鸣表示，中证A500指覆盖沪深两市市值较大的股票，兼具大盘蓝筹的稳定性与中盘的弹性，行业 分布均衡，相比沪深300 ...

Core Insights - The A500 ETF has become a focal point for capital inflow during market fluctuations, particularly highlighted by a record trading volume on December 17, where the total trading volume exceeded 520 billion yuan, surpassing that of the CSI 300 ETF [1][4] - The total scale of A500 ETFs has surpassed 230 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of nearly 37 billion yuan since the end of November, indicating a deepening trend towards institutional and index-based investment [1][11] Trading Activity - On December 17, the total trading volume of 45 A500 ETFs reached 526.38 billion yuan, marking the highest record for December [4] - The trading volume on December 18 decreased to 474.01 billion yuan, still the second highest for the month [5] - The trading activity has been consistently high throughout December, with daily trading volumes exceeding 400 billion yuan on multiple occasions [6] Capital Inflow - On December 17, the net inflow into A500 ETFs was over 111 billion yuan, accounting for 68.5% of the total net inflow into stock ETFs, which was 162.90 billion yuan [8][9] - Major public funds such as Huatai-PB and Southern Fund saw significant net inflows, with amounts reaching 32.83 billion yuan and 26.32 billion yuan respectively [9] Institutional Participation - The influx of capital into A500 ETFs is attributed to three main types of institutional investors: insurance funds, bank wealth management subsidiaries, and foreign capital [10] - Insurance funds are particularly driven by regulatory changes that lower capital costs for stock investments, making A500 ETFs attractive for long-term stable returns [10] Market Dynamics - The A500 ETF market has shown a clear trend of head concentration, with the top products like Huatai-PB and Southern Fund surpassing 300 billion yuan in scale, creating a dual-giant landscape [12][13] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with fund companies focusing on product differentiation and exploring Smart Beta strategies to enhance their offerings [13] Future Outlook - The A500 index is expected to gradually enhance its market positioning due to its balanced industry allocation and selection of leading stocks, catering to both value and growth investment strategies [14]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market has seen a significant increase in the number of new funds, reaching 1,371 by November 11, marking a three-year high, while the average fundraising scale has decreased to 782 million yuan [1][2][4] - The market is shifting from a reliance on star fund managers and blockbuster products to a more diversified approach characterized by "tool-oriented, segmented, and institutionalized" strategies [1][4] Fund Issuance Trends - The number of new public funds issued this year has surpassed previous years, with 1,371 new funds compared to 1,266 in 2023 and 1,143 in 2024, nearing the 2022 total of 1,424 [2] - The average fundraising scale for new funds has dropped significantly, with a total issuance scale of approximately 9,653 billion yuan, the lowest since 2019 [4][5] Fund Types and Strategies - A notable trend is the rise of initiated funds, with 334 new funds launched in this format, accounting for about 25% of new funds, primarily in the equity category [4] - The issuance strategy has shifted to "broad net" rather than "creating blockbuster funds," with companies focusing on low-cost, efficient tool products to meet changing market demands [4][5] Market Dynamics - The stock market's recovery has led to a stronger focus on equity funds, with 761 new equity funds issued, a record high, and accounting for 37% of total new fund issuance [6][7] - Conversely, bond funds have seen a significant decline, with only 247 new bond funds issued, the lowest in nearly a decade, reflecting a stark contrast to the equity market's performance [8][9] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a structure where equity funds dominate, particularly index funds due to their cost advantages, while bond fund issuance is anticipated to remain stable [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased volatility as it surpasses the 3700-point mark, with historical data indicating that this level has only been reached four times in the past decade, three of which occurred in 2021 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New funds are rapidly entering the market, driven by the influx of capital from the Asia-Pacific region, particularly as evidenced by the recent performance of the Mumbai stock market [3] - The Indian central bank reported a dramatic decline in foreign direct investment (FDI), with a drop of 99% month-on-month and 98% year-on-year, indicating a shift in global investment strategies [5] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - The current market environment is characterized by a "winner-takes-all" mentality, where institutional investors are thriving while many retail investors are struggling, akin to a buffet where institutions enjoy the best offerings while retail investors are left with leftovers [6] - The trend of institutional investors banding together is becoming more pronounced, leading to a market dominated by a few key players, as illustrated by the stark performance differences within sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals [7] Group 3: Quantitative Insights - A quantitative analysis reveals that institutional trading behaviors can be tracked, with active institutional inventory indicating the level of institutional participation in the market [11] - Data shows that before stock prices rise, institutional activity often precedes these movements, suggesting that retail investors need to be more data-driven in their investment strategies [14] Group 4: Guidance for Retail Investors - Retail investors are advised to adapt their strategies in light of the rapid establishment of new funds, which signals potential investment opportunities, but they must also be cautious about which stocks to pursue [15] - The current market conditions indicate that simply following traditional investment methods may lead to losses, as many stocks are underperforming despite a rising index [15]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of bond ETFs in China is driven by a combination of declining market interest rates, regulatory support, and the need for diversified investment options in a complex bond market [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 2023, the scale of bond ETFs reached 350 billion yuan, nearly doubling from early 2022, indicating a significant growth rate compared to stock ETFs [1] - The Chinese bond market has a total outstanding size exceeding 188 trillion yuan, with nearly 9,000 bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange alone, contributing to a diverse investment landscape [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The decline in market interest rates, with one-year deposit rates falling below 1%, has led investors to seek better returns in the bond market, despite a similar decline in bond yields [1][2] - The emergence of bond ETFs addresses the challenges faced by investors in selecting individual bonds, providing a clear investment direction and convenient liquidity [2] - Regulatory improvements, including faster ETF approvals and the development of the Bond Connect program, have enhanced market liquidity and facilitated the expansion of bond ETFs [2] Group 3: Future Potential - Despite the rapid growth, bond ETFs currently represent only 1.9% of the overall bond market, indicating substantial room for further development [3] - The ongoing evolution towards indexation and institutionalization in the investment market highlights the need for qualified management and quality financial products to meet investor demands [3]

Investment Comparison - Stocks and funds are two prominent investment tools, with distinct differences that cater to various investor needs [1] - The choice between stocks and funds often depends on individual risk tolerance, investment knowledge, and available time for research [6] Investment Threshold - Stocks have a higher investment threshold, requiring a minimum investment of several hundred to thousands of yuan, while funds can be started with as little as 1 or 10 yuan [1] Transaction Costs - Stock transaction costs include commission fees ranging from 0.01% to 0.03%, a stamp duty of 0.05%, and lower transfer fees, which can accumulate significantly with frequent trading [2] - Fund transaction costs consist of subscription fees, redemption fees, and management fees, with management fees typically ranging from 0.2% to 1.5% annually, and some funds offering lower fee rates to attract investors [2] Product Diversity - Funds offer a wider variety of products, including low-risk money market funds, bond funds, mixed funds, and high-risk stock funds, allowing investors to choose based on their risk tolerance and investment goals [3] - Funds provide diversification benefits by investing in multiple assets, reducing the risk associated with individual stocks [3] Autonomy in Investment - Stock investments allow for greater autonomy, enabling investors to select their stocks and timing, but require substantial market knowledge [4] - Funds are managed by professional fund managers who adjust the investment portfolio based on market changes, making them suitable for less experienced investors [4] Global Investment Trends - The trend towards institutional investment is growing globally, with an increasing share of institutional investors in the A-share market, enhancing market efficiency and providing safer investment options for ordinary investors [5]

Core Insights - Guosen Securities announced its 2024 annual performance meeting to be held on April 30, 2024 [2] - The company reported a revenue of 20.167 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.217 billion yuan, up 27.84%, outperforming the industry and large brokerages [2] - Investment and trading, along with asset management, emerged as new highlights for Guosen Securities, with both business segments seeing revenue growth exceeding 60% [2] Financial Performance - Guosen Securities achieved a revenue of 20.167 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.217 billion yuan in 2024, both figures surpassing the industry growth rates [2] - The overall securities industry, comprising 150 firms, reported a revenue of 451.169 billion yuan and a net profit of 167.257 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 11.15% and 21.35% respectively [2] Business Segments - Wealth management and institutional business generated 8.810 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 17.97% increase [3] - The brokerage business managed client assets exceeding 2.4 trillion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year, with a market share in the stock and fund market of 2.75%, up approximately 15% [3] - In investment banking, Guosen Securities completed 11.17 main underwriting projects, ranking ninth in the industry, with a total fundraising of 12.605 billion yuan, ranking sixth [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company actively engaged in business innovation, participating in the pilot program for the "Cross-border Wealth Management Connect" in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - Guosen Securities has served 92 IPO companies and 64 refinancing and supporting fundraising companies in the Greater Bay Area, with a total financing scale of approximately 125.6 billion yuan [3]