【文/羽扇观金工作室】 当地时间12月18日，美国财政部公布的最新数据显示，今年10月份，美债前两大海外持有国的动向出现 分化：日本的持仓规模从9月的1.189万亿美元（约合人民币8.37万亿元）增至1.2万亿美元（约合人民币 8.45万亿元）；而中国则继续减持，持仓规模从9月的7005亿美元（约合人民币4.93万亿元）降至6887亿 美元（约合人民币4.85万亿）。 彭博社19日援引美国财政部数据报道称，截至今年10月，海外投资者持有的美国国债总额微降58亿美元 （约合人民币408.4亿元），至9.24万亿美元（约合人民币65.06万亿元）。与此同时，美债市场指数显 示，美债价格在10月份已实现连续第3个月上涨。 宏利投资管理高级全球宏观分析师埃丽卡·卡梅莱里对彭博社表示："12月18日公布的数据进一步证实， 固定收益市场几乎没有'抛售美国'的迹象，更多表现为'对冲美国'。这一趋势支撑了我们的判断，即未 来几个月美元可能继续走弱，而美债收益率大概率将维持区间震荡。" 相比之下，日本作为美债最大的海外持有国，其10月持仓增加107亿美元，升至1.2万亿美元，创下2022 年7月以来的最高水平。 比利时数据的激 ...

Core Insights - Pimco achieved remarkable success in 2025 by betting against the prevailing "sell America" sentiment, with its flagship fund returning over 10%, topping the list of active bond funds in the U.S. [1] - The firm maintained its positions in 5 to 10-year U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities during market turmoil, further increasing its holdings as prices fell [1][2] - Pimco's Income Fund recorded a return of 10.4%, marking its best performance in at least a decade, while the Total Return Fund followed closely with a 9.1% return [1] Investment Strategy - The investment committee at Pimco held intensive meetings to assess strategies during a critical period in April and May, focusing on the impact of Trump's tariff policies on economic growth [2] - Despite initial market reactions, Pimco's strategy to hold onto its positions in U.S. Treasuries was based on the belief that tariffs would negatively affect growth and increase uncertainty for consumers and businesses [2][3] - The firm observed that investor interest in U.S. assets was increasing, countering the narrative of a complete sell-off of U.S. Treasuries [3] Market Dynamics - During the market downturn, Pimco's Income Fund experienced a net outflow of $2 billion in April, the first since October 2023, while the overall U.S. bond market fell by 0.7% in May [3] - The frequency of investment committee meetings increased from three times a week to daily, reflecting heightened vigilance in monitoring client movements and market conditions [3] Yield Curve Strategy - Pimco maintained a bearish outlook on long-term bonds, anticipating poor performance due to central bank easing policies and concerns over sovereign debt and deficits [4] - The firm capitalized on a steepening yield curve, reducing exposure to 30-year Treasuries to lock in profits [5] Future Outlook - Pimco is shifting its focus to global bond markets, reducing its interest rate risk exposure in the U.S. and increasing positions in Japan, Australia, and the UK, reflecting a strategic pivot based on economic growth signals [5] - Despite challenges, including the recent departure of a key executive, Pimco's funds have consistently outperformed major competitors over 3, 5, and 10-year periods [6]

Core Insights - Pimco has faced significant challenges in managing its 5 to 10-year U.S. Treasury and mortgage-related assets during April to May due to the impact of Trump's tariffs and a wave of selling U.S. assets [1][18] - Despite these challenges, Pimco maintained its positions and even increased its holdings in U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-related assets, leading to strong performance in 2025 [18] Fund Performance - The Pimco Income Fund, with assets of $213 billion, achieved a year-to-date return of 10.4%, marking its best performance in at least a decade [2][19] - The Pimco Total Return Fund, with $47 billion in assets, followed closely with a return of 9.1% [2][19] - Pimco's Income Fund ranked in the top 3% among approximately 300 similar funds this year, a significant improvement from not being in the top 10 since 2017 [2][18] Market Context - A critical turning point for Pimco occurred on April 2, when Trump announced extensive tariffs, leading to volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [5][22] - The investment committee increased the frequency of meetings to daily during this turbulent period to assess market conditions and investor behavior [6][23] - By May 22, U.S. Treasury yields peaked at 4.6%, exacerbating concerns about U.S. debt following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating [6][22] Strategic Decisions - Pimco's investment committee decided to maintain a bullish stance on 5 to 10-year U.S. Treasuries, anticipating that tariffs would negatively impact economic growth [5][22] - The firm observed that foreign investors were not fully abandoning U.S. Treasuries but were instead using hedging strategies, which bolstered their confidence in increasing their Treasury holdings [7][23] - Pimco has since shifted some focus to global bond markets expected to yield higher returns in 2026, while still maintaining strong positions in U.S. Treasuries [7][15] Historical Performance - Pimco has a history of making timely decisions, such as predicting the 2007 housing bubble and acquiring distressed mortgage assets in subsequent years [8][24] - The Pimco Income Fund has outperformed major competitors over 3, 5, and 10-year periods, reinforcing its strong track record [8][24] Leadership Changes - The recent departure of Mark Kiesel, a key member of Pimco's investment committee, poses challenges for maintaining performance, as he had been a manager of the Total Return Fund since 2014 [10][26]

美国政府结束停摆之后公布的最新美债持仓数据显示，9月份海外国家所持有的美国国债规模仍接近历史最高位，这也意味着此前不久在 8月创下新的美债持仓历史最高位之后，海外国家整体持有的美国国债规模仅仅呈现出略有回落。最新的海外国家美债持仓凸显出那些嘴 上说着"抛售美国"与"美国例外论已经处于崩塌进程"的海外主权财政机构以及大型私人投资机构们实际上正在趁着美债价格在降息预期催 化之下的上行时期疯狂买入美债资产或者在收益率反弹时候趁机大举逢低买入美债。 "期限溢价"持续大幅缓解叠加美联储降息预期升温之下的借贷成本下降，美债投资回报持续上升，而且迄今为止最为糟糕的那些经济预 测展望，尤其是关于通胀的悲观预测，基本上都未能成真。事实上，规模达30万亿美元的美国国债交易市场持续火热，以美债价格波动 计价的投资回报今年迄今接近7%，正朝着自2020年以来的最佳美债投资年份迈进。 据了解，具体的细节数据显示，美国国债第二大持有国英国选择了在9月份缩减持仓，而日本的美债持仓则升至三年多来的最高水平。 9月份，海外投资机构们合计持有价值约9.25万亿美元的美国国债，而前一个月则为9.26万亿美元这一历史最高持仓规模。值得注意的 是，持 ...

2025年临近尾声，有一个趋势势必伴随投资者进入新一年：普遍不愿全仓押注美国资产。 这一趋势始于4月，当时美国总统特朗普所谓的"解放日"关税引发市场恐慌，美国股票、国债和美元遭 遇抛售。这类交易被称为"抛售美国"（Sell America），在部分圈子里还被称作"ABUSA"——即"除了美 国，哪儿都行"（Anywhere But the USA）的缩写。在此后的几个月里，随着一系列政策先宣布后撤 回，又出现了"TACO"交易（即"特朗普总是半途而废"（Trump Always Chickens Out）的缩写）。 即便到了10月，白宫不可预测的政策仍在搅动市场，关于美国股票估值——以及美股是否处于人工智能 驱动的泡沫中——的质疑持续涌现。 "我知道我们的客户担心的一点是美国股市的极端集中度，尤其是与多元化程度高得多的欧洲股市相 比，"丹麦投资管理公司SimCorp的投资决策研究首席负责人克里斯托夫·舍恩（Christoph Schon）告诉 CNBC。 "普通投资者把太多资金放在了美国，"ETF.com的戴夫·纳迪格（Dave Nadig）上月告诉CNBC，"我听到 越来越多投资者在谈论，无论如何都要撤出美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attacks, leading to increased discussions about reducing exposure to U.S. assets among foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly discussing the need to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2]. - U.S. domestic investors are less motivated to reallocate funds away from U.S. assets, attributed to a sense of complacency [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is a lack of evidence supporting inflation driven by tariffs, despite average tariffs nearing 20% [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, potentially undermining hopes of alleviating U.S. debt repayment pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stability of the $37 trillion U.S. bond market is at risk due to increasing uncertainty, with potential liquidity panic in the short-term bond market as international investors signal a desire to limit exposure to long-term U.S. bonds [3]. - Despite concerns reflected in the bond and forex markets, the U.S. stock market is currently performing well, indicating a disconnect in pricing [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Global Economic and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Yujunli [3] - Contact Email: yujunli@greendh.com [3] Key Points Global Economic Landscape - Global manufacturing PMI contracted in April and May due to reciprocal tariff impacts [7] - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement in Switzerland to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, with tariffs lowered to 10%, and an additional 24% of reciprocal tariffs to be discussed after 90 days. The 20% tariff imposed by the US on China over fentanyl will be negotiated separately. The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London (June 9 - 10) reached a principled framework agreement [11] Capital Flows - According to a Citi report on May 28, large global funds are collectively "de-Americanizing", reducing allocations in US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing allocations in European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions' overall allocation of US stocks has dropped to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. There is a consensus among large global funds to "buy Asia and Europe". European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, and emerging market stocks remain overweight [12] - Institutions generally reduced holdings of US and Japanese bonds and shifted to increasing positions in UK, German, Italian government bonds, and emerging market local bonds [13] - In the foreign exchange market, selling of the US is more evident. The US dollar continues to be under-allocated, while the euro and yen continue to be added to portfolios [14] - According to a report from Bank of America on June 16, global central banks have sold $48 billion worth of US Treasury bonds since the end of March, and foreign investors' holdings in the Fed's reverse repurchase facility have also decreased by approximately $15 billion [15] US Economic Indicators - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [23] - US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, remaining at a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in the current month, indicating strong consumer demand [26] - In April, the monthly value of US goods imports recovered to normal at $277.9 billion, mainly affected by reciprocal tariffs [29] - In April, the monthly value of US consumer goods imports recovered to normal at $69.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. US retailers stocked up on a large scale before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and imports decreased significantly after the tariffs were imposed in April [32] - In April, the monthly value of US intermediate goods imports was $51.9 billion, showing a significant month-on-month decline due to tariff impacts. Manufacturers stocked up on a large scale before the tariffs [35] - In April, the monthly value of US capital goods imports was $90.5 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration in the reshoring of US manufacturing and the "re-industrialization" of the US [38] - In April, the monthly value of the US goods trade deficit decreased significantly to $87.4 billion due to reciprocal tariff impacts [41] - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached a new high for the year at $98.8 billion, indicating the continued strength of the US service industry [44] - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.8%, the same as the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [47] - In May, the US PPI was 2.6% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [50] - In April, the number of job openings in the US increased to 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one-year high, indicating a tightening labor market [53] - In May, the hourly wage of US non-farm enterprises was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [56] - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment phase [59] Other Regions' Economic Indicators - In May, the monthly value of China's manufacturing fixed investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries [62][65][68] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran boosted global risk appetite [71] - The China-US reached a phased framework agreement, stabilizing global economic expectations. The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. The manufacturing material procurement price index rose significantly by 5.4 points to 70, the largest increase in four years [72] - The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% [73] - China carried out comprehensive rectification of involutionary competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates eight times. Germany significantly expanded its military by 30%, driving the recovery of European manufacturing [74] - Elon Musk's Robotaxi was put into operation [75] Major Asset Strategies - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and short positions of hedge funds reached a new high [78] - The US "Great Beauty" tax cut plan passed in the House of Representatives, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds once exceeded 5% [80] - Inflation in Japan rose, and the yields of 40-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds increased significantly [83] - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Tech ETF is expected to benefit from the reallocation of global financial assets [86] - Driven by the continuous inflow of various funds, the A-share market is expected to shift from a volatile recovery to a trending upward market. There is a bullish view on Chinese equity assets [89] - The savings of the household sector continue to shift to high-dividend sectors, and the Bank ETF has continuously reached new highs [91] - In May, the issuance of China's 50-year Treasury bonds was oversubscribed, and long-term Treasury bonds are under pressure. The flattening of the domestic yield curve is unsustainable [93] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is only a temporary respite, and peace is short-lived. Iran is likely to face a situation similar to Gaza. The pulse increase in crude oil prices in June is likely to be just the first wave [96] - Gold is still in a technical adjustment phase, mainly fluctuating within a range [99] - The RMB is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital accounts, and there is continued optimism about the RMB [102]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that there are no signs of a "sell-off in the US" in the credit market, with strong capital flows recovering [1] - The firm maintains a neutral stance on the dollar-euro interest rate spread, noting that the total return potential of the dollar market is more advantageous for investors seeking total returns [1] - Dollar corporate bonds, particularly investment-grade bonds, are significantly superior compared to historical levels following the global financial crisis [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs continues to recommend reducing exposure to energy company dollar high-yield bonds, despite a recent surge in WTI oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2] - The performance of energy company euro investment-grade bonds remains relatively stable, attributed to a more diversified business mix and better hedging operations among European energy companies [2] - Future developments in the energy sector will largely depend on the progression of ongoing conflicts, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the upward trend in oil prices may not be sustainable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.0134 trillion as of April, showing a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decrease, with Japan, the UK, and China being the top holders [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of April, foreign holdings of U.S. debt totaled $9.0134 trillion, an increase of $977.2 billion year-over-year but a decrease of $36.1 billion month-over-month [1]. - The top three holders of U.S. debt are Japan ($1.13 trillion), the UK ($807.7 billion), and China ($757.2 billion), with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China decreased its [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Since April, there has been significant market volatility attributed to a sentiment of "selling America," raising questions about whether this is a temporary shift or a long-term reallocation of global capital [5][7]. - The report indicates that 12 of the top 20 foreign holders reduced their U.S. debt holdings by a total of $125.2 billion, while 8 increased their holdings by $66.9 billion, suggesting mixed trends among foreign investors [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal issues have led to an increase in term premiums, as investors demand additional compensation for taking on term risk, which has affected the correlation between stocks and bonds [5][12]. - The long-term attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may be challenged if fiscal imbalances are not addressed, potentially leading to higher yields on long-term bonds [12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt are seen as a strategic asset for trade negotiations, although officials have stated they do not intend to use these holdings as leverage [10]. - The ongoing discussions about U.S. fiscal sustainability and its impact on Treasury yields highlight the delicate balance between maintaining investor confidence and addressing budget deficits [12].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange options market indicates a potential slowdown in the recent aggressive selling of the US dollar, despite the dollar index trading at a three-year low [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The pessimism in the foreign exchange options market reached extreme levels in May, but signals of relative calm have emerged as the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision approaches [1][4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's risk reversal indicators for one-week and one-month terms have hit their lowest bearish points in over two months [1]. - Despite the recent calm, the dollar's spot price fell to its lowest since April 2022 due to confirmed moderate producer price inflation and limited cooling in the US labor market [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI/PPI, suggest that the US economy is showing unexpected resilience, leading to increased expectations of a "soft landing" and minimal changes in Fed rate cut expectations [6]. - The market anticipates only two rate cuts this year, which explains the retreat from extreme bearish positions in the foreign exchange market over the past two months [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in selling pressure, the consensus on Wall Street remains that the dollar will continue to weaken, with projections indicating further declines through 2025 [9]. - Investment confidence in the US is perceived to be declining, with macro traders reassessing the US as a high-risk market due to tariff threats, softening data, and fiscal deficit concerns [10]. - Major investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, warn of significant depreciation of the dollar in the coming year, with predictions of a potential 9% drop in the dollar index [10].