Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the suspension of the "Bratsk" brand bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures delivery, leading to significant price fluctuations in the pulp market [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the night trading session on June 20 saw the pulp 2601 contract open with a gap and rise over 5%, while the main 2509 contract briefly reached the 5400 yuan/ton mark, increasing by over 4%, marking a two-month high [1] - By the end of the morning session, the main 2509 contract's increase narrowed to 1.66%, closing at 5278 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - Sanli Futures predicts that the rebound in pulp prices may be limited, expecting a primarily fluctuating market due to the poor acceptance of the "Bratsk" brand by downstream paper mills and the increasing price gap with mainstream softwood pulp [1] - Huaxin Futures anticipates that the SP2509 pulp contract will fluctuate within the 5000-5500 yuan/ton range, influenced by the suspension of "Bratsk" deliveries and the higher costs of new registered warehouse receipts [2] - Dadi Futures suggests that the market is currently overtraded, with the high points reached suitable for short positions in the 09 contract, as the old "Bratsk" warehouse receipts continue to exert pressure on the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the mainstream price of the offset printing paper market remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not significant, and the supply side will be basically stable next week. As publication orders are gradually picked up, the paper mill inventory may decrease. However, social orders are still in the off - season, and dealers are expected to sell at stable prices, with possible individual price cuts to boost sales at the end of the month. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand of bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures for delivery may boost pulp prices and have a short - term positive impact on paper prices. In the long - term, the core contradiction of offset printing paper is that the growth rate of terminal demand cannot cover the growth rate of capacity expansion, and the paper price is expected to be weak with possible seasonal highs around October [5][52]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview No specific content provided. 2. Market Trends - The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white offset printing paper this week was 5,163 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white offset printing paper was 4,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton (0.39% decline), and the decline rate narrowed by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week [5][52]. - In the Shandong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained unchanged. In the Guangdong market, the price of 70g Tianyang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of 70g Chenming Yunbao and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained stable. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of offset printing paper increased compared to last week [11]. 3. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic offset printing paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [20]. Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry production was 162,900 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.3% [23]. Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry sales were 156,000 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 378,500 tons [29]. Import and Export - In April, the domestic offset printing paper import volume was 13,000 tons, and the export volume was 69,600 tons [37]. Inventory - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China, and the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [43]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [48]. 4. Market Judgment - **Market Review**: The main factors affecting the market price trend are that the paper mill production has little change, dealers' orders have not improved, publication orders have not been picked up in large quantities, social orders are weak, and the upstream wood - pulp price has declined, which has a negative impact on the offset printing paper market [5][52]. - **Future Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the supply side will be stable. With the pick - up of publication orders, paper mill inventory may decrease. Social orders are in the off - season, and dealers are expected to sell at stable prices. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand for delivery may boost pulp prices and have a short - term impact on paper prices. In the long - term, the paper price is expected to be weak with possible seasonal highs around October [5][52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market may show a pattern of counter - arbitrage and fluctuate slightly stronger due to the adjustment of deliverable products. After the suspension of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures, the overall price center of the futures market may rise, and the near - far month spread may widen [78]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of June 19, 2025, the pulp inventories in Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China all increased, with a 0.7% increase in Changshu Port, 1.2% in Qingdao Port, and 2.6% in Gaolan Port. The total inventory of mainstream ports reached 220.8 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous period [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the suspension of the warehousing of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures [6]. - Shandong Sun Paper and its subsidiaries won new industrial land in Beihai, Guangxi and Yanzhou, Shandong [6]. Market Data Market Trends - The basis of Silver Star on June 20, 2025, was 930 yuan/ton, with an 8.39% increase from the previous period and a 124.64% increase year - on - year. The basis of Russian Needle was 130 yuan/ton, with a 124.14% increase from the previous period and a 195.59% increase year - on - year. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period but a 45.45% increase year - on - year [14]. - The 09 - 11 month spread on June 20, 2025, decreased by 50% from the previous period, and the 11 - 01 month spread was - 82 yuan/ton, a 7.89% decrease from the previous period [19]. Fundamental Data Price - The price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp (Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish) decreased. On June 20, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1950 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease from the previous period but a 160% increase year - on - year. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1150 yuan/ton, a 4.17% decrease from the previous period and a 475% increase year - on - year [26]. - The import profit of Silver Star was positive but continued to decline this week. The hardwood pulp Star had no quotation in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July [33]. - The prices of imported softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, Northwood, and Lion decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The prices of imported hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird remained stable [35][42]. - The price of Venus was 5100 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, a 2% increase from the previous period but a 6.42% decrease year - on - year. The price of Kunhe was 3900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and a 1.3% increase year - on - year [46]. Supply - In April 2025, the European port inventory decreased by 12.77% month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume decreased by 18.3% month - on - month and 10.89% year - on - year [50]. - In May 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance. The softwood pulp import volume decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, while the hardwood pulp import volume increased by 7.84% month - on - month [53]. Demand - The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees on June 20, 2025. The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.2%, 62.1%, 54.6%, and 56.55% respectively [58]. - The prices of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper remained stable this week, but the market trading was light, and the raw material procurement enthusiasm was not high [61][64]. - The profit of household paper decreased this period, while the profits of other paper types increased to varying degrees [67]. Inventory - The total inventory of mainstream ports in China reached 220.8 million tons on June 20, 2025, a 1.05% increase from the previous period and a 21.12% increase year - on - year. The inventories in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port all increased [75]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.53 million tons on June 20, 2025, a 1.22% decrease from the previous period and a 50.27% decrease year - on - year. The warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.63 million tons, unchanged from the previous period and a 49.25% decrease year - on - year [69]. Operation Suggestions - The pulp market may fluctuate slightly stronger due to the adjustment of deliverable products. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable may increase the willingness of buyers to take delivery and raise the overall price center of the futures market. The market may show a counter - arbitrage pattern [78].