国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周双胶纸市场价格主流稳定，个别小幅松动。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5163元/吨，环比 持平，延续上周稳势；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4821元/吨，环比下跌19元/吨，跌幅0.39%，本周跌幅环比收窄0.06个百分点。 影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸厂生产端变化不大，稳价出货为主；第二，经销商接单情况暂无好转，拿货心态谨慎； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pulp market may show a pattern of counter - arbitrage and fluctuate slightly stronger due to the adjustment of deliverable products. After the suspension of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures, the overall price center of the futures market may rise, and the near - far month spread may widen [78]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of June 19, 2025, the pulp inventories in Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China all increased, with a 0.7% increase in Changshu Port, 1.2% in Qingdao Port, and 2.6% in Gaolan Port. The total inventory of mainstream ports reached 220.8 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous period [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the suspension of the warehousing of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures [6]. - Shandong Sun Paper and its subsidiaries won new industrial land in Beihai, Guangxi and Yanzhou, Shandong [6]. Market Data Market Trends - The basis of Silver Star on June 20, 2025, was 930 yuan/ton, with an 8.39% increase from the previous period and a 124.64% increase year - on - year. The basis of Russian Needle was 130 yuan/ton, with a 124.14% increase from the previous period and a 195.59% increase year - on - year. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period but a 45.45% increase year - on - year [14]. - The 09 - 11 month spread on June 20, 2025, decreased by 50% from the previous period, and the 11 - 01 month spread was - 82 yuan/ton, a 7.89% decrease from the previous period [19]. Fundamental Data Price - The price differences between softwood and hardwood pulp (Silver Star - Goldfish, Russian Needle - Goldfish) decreased. On June 20, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1950 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease from the previous period but a 160% increase year - on - year. The price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1150 yuan/ton, a 4.17% decrease from the previous period and a 475% increase year - on - year [26]. - The import profit of Silver Star was positive but continued to decline this week. The hardwood pulp Star had no quotation in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July [33]. - The prices of imported softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, Northwood, and Lion decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The prices of imported hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird remained stable [35][42]. - The price of Venus was 5100 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, a 2% increase from the previous period but a 6.42% decrease year - on - year. The price of Kunhe was 3900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and a 1.3% increase year - on - year [46]. Supply - In April 2025, the European port inventory decreased by 12.77% month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume decreased by 18.3% month - on - month and 10.89% year - on - year [50]. - In May 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated performance. The softwood pulp import volume decreased by 4.75% month - on - month, while the hardwood pulp import volume increased by 7.84% month - on - month [53]. Demand - The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper decreased to varying degrees on June 20, 2025. The capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.2%, 62.1%, 54.6%, and 56.55% respectively [58]. - The prices of white cardboard, household paper, offset paper, and coated paper remained stable this week, but the market trading was light, and the raw material procurement enthusiasm was not high [61][64]. - The profit of household paper decreased this period, while the profits of other paper types increased to varying degrees [67]. Inventory - The total inventory of mainstream ports in China reached 220.8 million tons on June 20, 2025, a 1.05% increase from the previous period and a 21.12% increase year - on - year. The inventories in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Gaolan Port all increased [75]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 23.53 million tons on June 20, 2025, a 1.22% decrease from the previous period and a 50.27% decrease year - on - year. The warehouse receipt quantity in factories was 1.63 million tons, unchanged from the previous period and a 49.25% decrease year - on - year [69]. Operation Suggestions - The pulp market may fluctuate slightly stronger due to the adjustment of deliverable products. The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand deliverable may increase the willingness of buyers to take delivery and raise the overall price center of the futures market. The market may show a counter - arbitrage pattern [78].