周三，澳元（AUD）兑美元（USD）延续上行，实现四连涨。 澳大利亚11月通胀数据缓解，澳元兑美元汇率仍走高。市场关注本月底第四季度通胀完整报告，分析指出，核心通胀率若上升0.9%及以上，或引发澳大利 亚储备银行（RBA）2月会议政策调整考量。 《澳大利亚金融评论报》（AFR）信息显示，市场预期澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）本轮政策调整周期未结束。调研数据显示，未来一年通胀或持续高位，引 发后续政策调整猜测。 澳大利亚统计局（ABS）周三数据显示，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长3.4%，低于10月的3.8%及市场预期的3.7%，仍高于澳大利亚储备银行 （RBA）2-3%目标区间。该数值为8月以来最低，住房成本增速降至三个月最低。 11月澳大利亚CPI环比持平（0%），与10月一致。 同期澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）中位数CPI环比涨0.3%，同比增3.2%。2025年11月经季节性调整建筑许可证数量激增15.2%至18406套，创近四年高点，此前 曾回落6.1%；年度批准数量同比大增20.2%，扭转10月修订后1.1%的降幅。 美元方面，ISM服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）发布前表现偏弱。美元指数（DXY） ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) market, specifically the G10 currencies, with a recommendation to maintain short positions on the US dollar (USD) against the Canadian dollar (CAD), Australian dollar (AUD), and British pound (GBP) [6][8][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Short USD Recommendations**: The company maintains a short USD position against GBP, CAD, and AUD, anticipating these currencies will strengthen as Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing adjusts [6][8]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a bearish sentiment towards CAD and GBP, while growth expectations and positive fundamentals are expected to support AUD, CAD, and GBP [6][8]. - **Impact of US Government Shutdown**: A potential end to the US government shutdown could negatively impact the USD by restoring data flow and enhancing market confidence in a December Fed rate cut [6][9]. - **Global Growth Sentiment**: There is an improvement in global growth sentiment, with rising growth forecasts and higher Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) in major economies, creating a favorable environment for risk-sensitive currencies [6][11]. - **USD Positioning Risks**: Current options data indicates that USD positioning is at its most bullish level since January, which raises the risk of a pullback [6][13]. - **Fundamental Trajectory for USD**: The fundamental outlook for the USD remains unchanged, with expectations of rising unemployment and front-end yields moving against the USD as the Fed is projected to implement four additional rate cuts [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Positive Outlook for AUD, CAD, and GBP**: - AUD is supported by a robust growth outlook, continued immigration inflows, and fiscal tailwinds, with 2-year Australian yields now on par with 2-year US Treasury yields [15]. - CAD is expected to benefit from an expansionary budget and well-priced trade negotiations with the US [15]. - GBP positioning is seen as stretched, with potential for a decline in GBP-negative premiums as fiscal concerns ease [16]. - **Trade Recommendations**: - Maintain short USD/CAD at 1.4130 with a target of 1.34 and stop at 1.44 [19]. - Maintain long GBP/USD at 1.3137 with a target of 1.39 and stop at 1.27 [19]. - Maintain long AUD/USD at 0.6490 with a target of 0.69 and stop at 0.63 [19]. - **Valuation Methodology and Risks**: The report includes a detailed list of current trade ideas, entry levels, rationales, and associated risks [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic recommendations and market outlook for the G10 currencies.