1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices continued to fluctuate, with the main contract closing at 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - From August 9-11, the basis for spot Australian cotton LM1-5/32 (strength 29-30 GPT) was approximately 3.5-4.5 cents/pound, while LM1-3/16 (strength 30 GPT) had a basis of 6-6.75 cents/pound. The basis for bonded Australian cotton M1-5/32 (strength 28/29) at major ports in China was generally around 13.5-15 cents/pound [2] - In the first week of August, Brazil exported 17,242.63 tons of cotton, with an average daily export volume of 2,873.77 tons, a decrease of 43% compared to the average daily export volume for the entire month of August 2024. The total export volume for August 2024 was 111,764.74 tons, with the decline attributed to reduced market demand and price competition [2] - As of the week ending August 8, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.7%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week and down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week and down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. Weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.01 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week-on-week and flat year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with recent weather conditions having limited impact on cotton growth. The market has strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025, which is suppressing the prices of distant contracts. Demand remains under pressure, with low operating rates in textile enterprises, high grey fabric inventory, insufficient export orders, and no significant improvement in domestic consumption. Although some textile companies expect a temporary recovery in late August, overall market confidence is lacking. The current cotton prices face pressure from above and support from below, with the market lacking core drivers and awaiting further news [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures indicated that cotton prices are currently maintaining a range-bound trend. On the supply side, cotton supply is relatively tight, and the spot basis remains firm. Future attention is needed on whether additional sliding tax quota will be issued. On the demand side, there are marginal improvements in downstream industries, but overall confidence remains low. Macroeconomic factors suggest that short-term tariff impacts may weaken, and attention should be paid to policies against "involution" affecting bulk commodities. Overall, Zheng cotton may experience short-term fluctuations with potential upward movement, but the upper space is expected to be limited, and medium-term pressure is anticipated from the new cotton harvest [3]