Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].

Core Insights - The USDA report indicates that export sales are "quite poor," which may be the final straw for the rebound in cotton prices [1] Group 1 - The USDA report highlights a significant decline in cotton export sales, contributing to bearish sentiment in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that the disappointing export figures could hinder any potential recovery in cotton prices [1] - The report may lead to increased volatility in the cotton market as traders react to the negative outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices have significantly increased due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and accelerated commercial inventory depletion, leading to expectations of tighter supply before the new cotton harvest [2][3]. Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - On June 9, cotton futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a three-week high of 13,550 yuan/ton, closing at 13,495 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 1.09% [2]. - Since April 9, cotton futures prices have shown a cumulative increase of 6% after initially declining [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of May, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April, with monthly reductions exceeding 600,000 tons since March [3]. - Retail sales in April for clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 108.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, indicating strong domestic demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Factors - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase, with the planting area in Xinjiang projected to grow in 2025, supported by favorable climate conditions [4]. - In contrast, U.S. cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 12% in 2025, with the main cotton-producing state, Texas, seeing an 8% reduction [5]. Group 4: Global Cotton Market Outlook - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production increase of 1.76 million tons to 26.36 million tons for the 2024/25 season, while U.S. cotton production is expected to rise by 510,000 tons to 3.14 million tons [6]. - Recent U.S. cotton sales have been sluggish, with cumulative contracts down 6.8% year-on-year as of May 29 [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor macroeconomic impacts, cotton supply and demand dynamics, and weather conditions, as these factors will significantly influence cotton prices [7]. - Short-term cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 13,000 and 13,800 yuan/ton, with potential upward pressure from low inventory levels [8].