1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: New - year global cotton supply - demand is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and demand - side stress. Domestic cotton de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing may limit price decline [2] - Sugar: Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, while ethanol provides support. In China, typhoons may affect production, and trade frictions increase volatility [5][6][7] - Pulp: Global supply pressure exists, and domestic demand is weak. Tariff wars and insufficient fundamental improvement keep prices at the bottom [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.38%) [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 14,510 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; national average was 14,664 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In August, Thailand imported about 9,057 tons of cotton, down 43.5% month - on - month and up 1.2% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US government shutdown affected data release [2] - Supply - demand: Global supply - demand is loose, and domestic de - stocking is fast, but new cotton listing increases supply [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish due to trade war and production increase expectations [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,408 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.09%) [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning price was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production: In Brazil, 40.855 million tons of sugarcane were crushed in late September, up 5.18% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian supply is strong, and ethanol supports prices [5] - Domestic: Supply is sufficient, and typhoons may affect production [6] Strategy - Neutral due to typhoon impact and trade frictions [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] - Spot: Shandong Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8] - Market: Imported pulp prices had different trends, with some rising and some stagnant [8] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' plans have limited impact, and domestic supply is still loose [9] - Demand: Global and domestic demand is weak, and paper mills' procurement is cautious [9] Strategy - Neutral due to tariff wars and weak fundamentals [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cotton market faces uncertainties due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, with new - year production increase expectations suppressing the market and weak demand. The sugar market has production uncertainties due to typhoon - affected areas, while being influenced by macro - sentiment. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and high inventory, and is affected by the macro - situation [2][6][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,270 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,513 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,674 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 4.077 million tons. For 2025/26, planted area is expected to be 2.138 million hectares (about 32.07 million mu), up 2.5% year - on - year; yield per mu is expected to be 125.7 kg, down 3.5% year - on - year; total production is expected to be 4.031 million tons, down 1.1% year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The Sino - US trade war escalated, and the US federal government shutdown affected data release. The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased supply pressure and weak demand. In China, cotton de - stocking is fast, but the pre - holiday seed cotton purchase was cautious. New cotton listing during the National Day limited the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and new - year production increase expectations may cause short - term weakness in cotton prices [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Pakistan invited bids to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar, with the possibility of a deal seemingly decreasing. The government approved a plan to import 500,000 tons of sugar to stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were flat. Brazilian sugar production increased in the first half of September, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price. In China, the peak - season sales were poor, imports were high, and new sugar cane harvest started. Typhoons affected some areas, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Typhoon - affected areas may support sugar prices, but the Sino - US trade friction may increase market volatility [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 4,856 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, Chilean silver star coniferous pulp was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Russian needle pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [8] - Imported wood pulp spot prices were mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [8] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. Overseas阔叶浆 mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual September transactions were poor. Global supply pressure remains, and domestic port de - stocking is slow. Demand in Europe, the US, and China is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [9] Strategy - Neutral. The tariff war and weak fundamentals may keep pulp prices in a bottom - seeking trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, increasing market uncertainty. The new - year production increase expectation suppresses the market, and downstream demand is weak, so short - term cotton prices may continue to decline [3]. - Sugar: Typhoons in China have affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, which may support sugar prices. However, the Sino - US trade friction has intensified, and short - term market fluctuations may increase [7]. - Pulp: The tariff war has a negative impact on the macro - level. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,642 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1]. - Exports: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.308 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the total exports were 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2]. - Domestic: Cotton inventory reduction is fast, but the pre - holiday cotton purchase by ginneries was cautious. The new cotton harvest has accelerated, and the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term cotton price has a risk of further decline due to the trade war and production increase expectation [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Exports: India's 2024/25 sugar exports from February to September 2025 totaled 775,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased year - on - year, suppressing the raw sugar price. The raw sugar price has limited downward space due to ethanol price support [5]. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales in the peak season were poor, and imports in August hit a new high. Typhoons have affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [6]. Strategy - The sugar price may be supported by the typhoon - affected production, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify due to trade friction [7]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 4842 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+1.13%) from the previous day [8]. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of pulp in Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some falling [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have plans to increase prices, reduce production, and transfer production, but the actual impact on supply is limited. Domestic port inventory remains high [9]. - Demand: Global pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale raw material purchases [9]. Strategy - The pulp price may continue to oscillate at the bottom due to the tariff war and weak fundamentals [10].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with a 4.44% increase in the week from October 3 to October 10, ranking first among all primary industries [1][2]. Industry Summary Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance includes a 5.35% increase in the industrial metals segment, a 4.64% rise in the small metals segment, a 4.44% increase in the metal new materials segment, a 4.00% rise in the precious metals segment, and a 1.29% increase in the energy metals segment [1][2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices continued their upward trend from before the National Day holiday, but the "Tariff War 2.0" has raised concerns about potential downward pressure on prices in the short term [2][3]. - As of October 10, copper prices were reported at $10,374 per ton, down 3.05% week-on-week, while domestic copper prices were at 85,910 yuan per ton, up 3.37% week-on-week [3]. Aluminum - As of October 10, LME aluminum was priced at $2,746 per ton, up 1.63% week-on-week, and domestic aluminum was at 20,980 yuan per ton, up 1.45% week-on-week [4][5]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 30,000 tons to 44.135 million tons due to maintenance in Shanxi [4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4,035.50 per ounce, up 3.15% week-on-week, while domestic gold was priced at 901.56 yuan per gram, up 5.48% week-on-week [6]. - The ongoing trend of declining real interest rates and rising concerns over fiscal pressures have contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US-China trade relations**, focusing on the **tariff war** and its implications for the Chinese economy and global trade dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Shift and Economic Priorities** - Since September 2024, the Chinese government has prioritized boosting domestic demand as a key policy focus, with data-dependent policy responses expected moving into 2025 [3][70][72] - The policy shift is characterized by a three-arrow approach: structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing [72] 2. **Tariff War 2.0** - The ongoing tariff war, referred to as **Tariff War 2.0**, poses significant external risks for China in 2025, with expectations of punitive tariffs increasing from 20% to 60% on Chinese goods [6][8] - The cumulative tariff increase on China reached **145%** by April, with exemptions still resulting in an effective rate of **110%** [8] - Recent de-escalation talks in Geneva have reduced the US average effective tariff rate on China to **41%**, while China's tariff on the US is at **28%** [8] 3. **Impact on Economic Growth** - The tariff increases are projected to negatively impact China's growth, with significant implications for consumption and housing sectors, which are critical for stabilization efforts [3][13][72] - The growth target for China remains at **5%** for both 2024 and 2025, with systemic risks being mitigated [72][99] 4. **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Adjustments** - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise to **4% of GDP** in 2025, with a record high government debt expected to increase by **2 trillion yuan** compared to 2024 [72][73] - Consumption support measures are modest, estimated between **400 billion to 600 billion yuan**, focusing on trade-in subsidies and basic pension increases [72][80] - Monetary easing is anticipated, with potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [72][86] 5. **Risks and Challenges Ahead** - Further risks for China include potential US crackdowns on transshipments, tariff hikes from other trading partners, and broader US-China tensions beyond tariffs [8][72] - The current economic environment is characterized by deflationary pressures and uneven recovery across sectors, particularly in housing [106][119] Additional Important Insights 1. **Consumer Confidence and Spending** - Consumer confidence remains low, primarily driven by income levels, which impacts overall consumption patterns in China [135][136] - The tiered pension system and fiscal incentives for new births are part of the government's strategy to stimulate consumption [140] 2. **Global Trade Dynamics** - China's share in US imports and global exports is under scrutiny, with significant shifts expected due to the ongoing tariff war and changing trade policies [17][19] - The impact of tariffs on global supply chains is a critical concern, with potential long-term effects on manufacturing and investment flows [58][99] 3. **Structural Imbalances** - The need for structural transformation in the Chinese economy is emphasized, with a focus on addressing imbalances between service and manufacturing sectors [99][104] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the US-China tariff war, policy shifts, and the economic outlook for China moving forward.

Core Insights - Guangzhou Federation of Trade Unions is mobilizing skilled workers to tackle challenges posed by the tariff war, focusing on technology, risk management, and market expansion to support local export-oriented enterprises [1] Group 1: Policy Response - The Guangzhou Federation of Trade Unions, in collaboration with the municipal tax and commerce bureaus, is conducting workshops to educate businesses on policies like "stabilizing foreign trade" and "export tax rebates," aiming to convert policy benefits into development momentum [2] - Recommendations on "supply chain diversification" and "exploring emerging markets" are helping foreign trade companies re-strategize their overseas operations, reducing reliance on single markets and identifying new growth opportunities [2] - The introduction of digital services such as "cloud tax rebates" is simplifying business processes, enabling companies to shift from a defensive to a proactive approach in international markets [2] Group 2: Technical Support - The Guangzhou Federation of Trade Unions is facilitating technical support by connecting skilled workers with "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" enterprises to address common challenges faced by small and medium-sized industries [3] - Customized solutions are being provided for issues like equipment failures and process bottlenecks, helping companies overcome critical challenges and enhance their competitiveness [3] - Collaborations, such as that between Baiyun Electric and power supply departments, are optimizing energy systems to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, while other manufacturers are leveraging partnerships to enhance production capacity [3] Group 3: Collaborative Dialogue - A tripartite dialogue platform has been established to integrate resources among government, enterprises, and skilled workers, facilitating seamless connections between e-commerce platforms, logistics companies, and manufacturers [4] - Initiatives like JD Group's support for export enterprises transitioning to domestic sales are addressing inventory issues and enhancing brand recognition through multi-channel marketing [4] - The integration of smart grid technology with traditional manufacturing is fostering innovative solutions to trade barriers, promoting collaboration among policy, technology, and market sectors to elevate the Bay Area's manufacturing into global high-end supply chains [4]

Market Indicators - The recent decline in U.S. stocks is linked to the loss of faith in the "Trump Put," which has contributed to a rebound in risk premiums and a risk-off sentiment in dollar assets[6] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a maximum decline of 10.1% and the Nasdaq Composite index a maximum decline of 13.7% since January 17, 2025, with significant technical breakdowns occurring[20] - Historical data shows that in 2018, the S&P 500 fell by 10.1% and 19.6% during two major downturns, while the Nasdaq saw declines of 8.5% and 23%[14] Economic Performance - Current economic conditions in the U.S. are worse than before the 2018 trade war but better than mid-2019 before interest rate cuts, with no signs of recession in hard data[30] - Recent soft indicators have deteriorated significantly, resembling the conditions before the 2019 rate cuts, raising concerns about future hard data weakness[30] - The proportion of stock assets in U.S. household financial portfolios has risen to over 29%, indicating a higher systemic importance of the stock market compared to 2018[22] Political Capital - Trump's national approval rating has decreased from a high of 51.3% to 47.9%, reflecting a decline of 3.4% in just two months[34] - Key swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa have shown a recent decline in net support for Trump, which could impact policy decisions[34] - Historical trends indicate that agricultural states' political capital is sensitive to trade war pressures and falling agricultural prices, which could influence Trump's policy stance[34]