Core Viewpoint - The recent trading activity of cloud computing service provider YunGongChang (02512.HK) in the Hong Kong stock market has attracted significant attention, with high trading volume and stock price volatility driven by large capital inflows and outflows, reflecting market speculation on shareholder actions and company direction [1] Company Overview - YunGongChang is focused on the edge computing sector, offering core services in IDC solutions, edge computing services, and ICT integration, with its independent brand "Lingjing Cloud" recognized as one of the "Top 20 Edge Computing Companies in China" for three consecutive years, establishing a differentiated advantage in technology and industry reputation [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, YunGongChang's edge computing business revenue surged by 39% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall company revenue growth of 10%, positioning it as a key performance driver [3] Market Dynamics - The ongoing "East Data West Computing" strategy and accelerated digital transformation in government and enterprises are expected to provide strong order growth certainty for YunGongChang, with the edge computing sector continuing to show upward momentum, indicating a favorable long-term growth outlook [3] Shareholder Actions - The company's major shareholder, Ru Yi Information Technology Co., LTD, announced a plan to reduce its stake by up to 69 million shares, approximately 15% of the total share capital, which has raised concerns in the market about potential negative signals regarding the company's growth prospects, especially given the timing of the reduction amid improving fundamentals [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, YunGongChang, is one of the earliest IDC service providers in China, focusing on becoming a leading provider of edge computing and edge AI services, driven by stable upstream and downstream relationships and significant market potential in these areas [1][2]. Group 1: IDC Business Growth - The demand for IDC services is experiencing stable growth due to the digital transformation of Chinese enterprises and advancements in technologies such as cloud computing, blockchain, and IoT. Frost & Sullivan projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% for the Chinese IDC market from 2024 to 2028 [1]. - Non-self-built data centers are favored by small enterprises for their low cost and high flexibility, leading to a rapid growth in the IDC solution service market, with an expected CAGR of 17.0% from 2024 to 2028 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The company has established brand recognition through quality service and maintains long-term stable partnerships with upstream and downstream players, which is expected to help expand its market share [1]. - The company is continuously enriching its service product portfolio and expanding its customer base, which may facilitate rapid business expansion through a flexible and scalable business model [1]. Group 3: Edge Computing and AI Growth - Edge computing has extensive applications in IoT, AI, and augmented reality, with significant growth potential. Frost & Sullivan forecasts a CAGR of 32.9% for the edge computing market from 2024 to 2028 [2]. - The company's edge computing brand, "Lingjing Cloud," has established a cross-regional edge computing network across major cities in mainland China and plans to explore lower-tier market opportunities to capitalize on industry growth [2]. - Edge computing has become the company's second growth curve, contributing to its overall revenue growth [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company anticipates revenues of RMB 881 million and RMB 1.042 billion for 2025E and 2026E, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 24% and 18%. Expected net profits are RMB 27 million and RMB 49 million, with net profit margins of 3.1% and 4.7% for the same years [2]. - Based on comparable company valuations, a target price of HKD 5.0 is set for the company, applying a 43x P/E ratio for 2026E [2].

Investment Rating - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.0, reflecting a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 4.07 [71][73]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading provider in the IDC (Internet Data Center) sector, focusing on "edge computing + edge AI" to drive new growth engines. The stable relationships with upstream and downstream partners are expected to enhance market share [2][12]. - The IDC business is projected to benefit from the digital transformation of Chinese enterprises, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% expected from 2024 to 2028 in the IDC market [16][8]. - The edge computing market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 32.9% from 2024 to 2028, indicating significant potential for the company's edge computing services [36][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 696 million in 2023 to RMB 1,189 million by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 19% [3][53]. - The operating profit is expected to increase from RMB 23 million in 2023 to RMB 87 million in 2027, reflecting a growing profit margin [3][60]. - The net profit is projected to rise from RMB 14 million in 2023 to RMB 69 million in 2027, with an expected net profit margin improvement [3][60]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing demand for IDC services driven by the rise of cloud computing, blockchain, and IoT technologies, with the IDC market size in China expected to reach RMB 426.8 billion by 2028 [16][8]. - The edge computing services are positioned to capture a growing share of the market, with the company already establishing a cross-regional edge computing network across major cities in China [40][12]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a flexible and scalable business model that avoids direct competition with state-owned telecom operators, allowing for rapid business expansion [35][12]. - The focus on edge AI and edge computing services is expected to create a new growth curve, with the company leveraging its existing infrastructure to enhance service offerings [49][12]. Customer and Supplier Relationships - The company has established strong relationships with major clients across various sectors, including government, finance, and telecommunications, which contribute to a low customer churn rate [28][12]. - Long-term partnerships with key suppliers, including state-owned telecom operators, enhance the company's ability to meet diverse customer needs [32][12].