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鲍威尔:美联储将考虑加强沟通工具的改进
news flash· 2025-06-18 18:43
智通财经6月19日电,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,美联储将考虑加强沟通工具的改进,例如点阵图。 鲍威尔:美联储将考虑加强沟通工具的改进 ...
今夜,美联储“点阵图”或将巨变
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-18 03:04
Core Insights - The focus on the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" reflects uncertainty regarding interest rate predictions for 2025, with market expectations leaning towards no change in rates during the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The dot plot, which represents individual policymakers' predictions for year-end rates, may not accurately reflect economic conditions or the Fed's response to data [1][3] Group 1: Dot Plot Significance - The dot plot's median prediction for rate cuts could significantly influence market narratives, with a potential shift from two cuts to one if just two officials adjust their forecasts [2] - The dot plot has been criticized for creating confusion during unexpected economic conditions, as it cannot fully convey the inherent uncertainties faced by policymakers [3] Group 2: Potential Reforms - There is a growing sentiment among officials to reassess the dot plot's effectiveness as a communication tool, with suggestions to stop publishing it in favor of a broader range of predictions [3][4] - A compromise could involve discontinuing the dot plot while still providing a range of rate predictions and a "central tendency" value, which could mitigate overemphasis on median predictions [4] Group 3: Economic Considerations - Recent tariff policies have introduced variability into the Fed's predictions, with rising import tariffs posing new inflation risks and affecting confidence in rate cut timelines [5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and labor market conditions has led to a cautious approach in maintaining rate predictions, as any adjustments could misrepresent the rapidly changing economic landscape [5]
美联储会议在即 如何预判美国利率走向?一文读懂美联储政策工具的密码
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 05:20
共识聚焦:密集的圆点集群往往预示政策制定者对利率路径存在较强共识 分歧信号:离散分布的圆点暗示委员会内部存在激烈争论,政策转向可能性升高 中位数玄机:市场通常将点阵图中位数视作"基准情景",但需警惕极端值暗示的黑天鹅风险 目前,人们迫切希望预判利率走向以把握财务前景。虽然无法精准预测未来,但美联储的政策工具—— 尤其是被称为"点阵图"的神秘图表——正成为市场窥探政策风向的重要窗口。 点阵图:政策制定者的利率预言墙 美联储点阵图本质是一张利率预测路线图,记录了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)19位核心成员对未来数 年短期利率走向的匿名预测。每个圆点代表一位官员对特定年份利率中枢的预判,这些预测会随每次 FOMC会议对经济形势的评估动态调整。 该图表自2012年起作为政策透明化改革的一部分定期披露,现收录于每季度发布的《经济预测摘要》中 (每年3月、6月、9月和12月更新)。尽管美联储强调这并非承诺性指引,但市场仍将其视为解读政策 转向的关键线索。 (图片来源:finance.yahoo) 破译点阵图的三重门道 需要特别注意的是,2022年点阵图曾严重偏离实际加息路径——预测中位数显示2023年末利率将达 4.6% ...