Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a significant year-on-year revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue projected between 1.85 billion to 2.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% to 25.8%. The core operating profit is expected to be between 65 million to 75 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.4% to 66.7% [6] - The company has expanded its store count by 361 stores in Q3 2025, marking a 98% increase year-on-year, bringing the total number of stores to 10,761 [6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in the "home dining" segment through diverse product offerings and a multi-channel approach, combining online and offline strategies [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.85 to 2.05 billion yuan, with a core operating profit of 65 to 75 million yuan [6] - The company has launched various new products, with 175 new SKUs introduced in H1 2025, and has seen a 62.8% increase in registered members, reaching approximately 50.3 million [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively engaging in share buybacks, with a plan to repurchase up to 100 million HKD of its H-shares, indicating confidence in its long-term growth [6] - The launch of the "919 National Hot Pot Festival" and the "One Sauce to Cook" series of condiments are part of the company's strategy to enhance brand value and revenue potential [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 7.50 billion, 8.63 billion, and 9.88 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 450 million, 514 million, and 583 million yuan [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain a robust return on equity (ROE) of 14% to 16% over the next few years, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 19 to 15 times [7][8]

2025 年 10 月 17 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林昕宇 S0350522110005 | | | | linxy01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 赵兰亭 S0350524080004 | | | | zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 孙馨竹 S0350124060027 | | | | sunxz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 发布回购彰显信心，社区央厨战略持续验证 ——锅圈（02517）点评报告 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/10/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 锅圈 | 9.0% | 5.8% | 18.0% | | 恒生指数 | -2.1% | 5.6% | 27.6% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/10/16 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 3.65 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guoquan (02517) is positioned for sustainable growth in the "home dining" market, leveraging its extensive store network, supply chain optimization, and innovative channels to create competitive advantages [1][2] - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 10,150 stores, including 10,135 franchise stores and 15 self-operated stores, covering all 31 provinces in China, and holds a 3.0% market share in the home dining food product sector as of 2022 [1] - The market for home dining food in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, reaching an estimated market size of 940 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth opportunities in lower-tier cities where penetration rates are below 25% [1] Group 2 - The company employs a three-pronged strategy to build its competitive moat: a focus on popular products, a robust membership ecosystem, and innovative distribution channels [2] - The popular product strategy includes a 99 yuan beef tripe package expected to generate over 500 million yuan in sales in 2024, with significant exposure on Douyin reaching 6.21 billion views [2] - By the end of 2024, the company has registered 41.3 million members, a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits amounting to 990 million yuan, reflecting a 36.6% increase [2] Group 3 - The company anticipates revenue growth from 71.83 billion yuan in 2025 to 90.80 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected to rise from 3.40 billion yuan to 4.63 billion yuan during the same period, corresponding to PE ratios of 25, 21, and 18 times [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report analyzes Guoquan (02517) in the "home dining" market, focusing on its sustainable growth logic and addressing three key questions: how the scale of 10,000 stores translates into competitive barriers, how to capture opportunities in a fragmented market, and how supply chain and channel innovations create differentiated advantages [3][4] - As of the end of 2024, Guoquan operates 10,150 stores, with a retail market share of 3.0% in China's home dining products, positioning it as the market leader [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The home dining market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 20.7% from 2022 to 2027, reaching an estimated market size of 940 billion yuan by 2027, with significant growth potential in lower-tier cities where penetration rates are below 25% [4][5] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with the top five companies holding only 11.1% market share, indicating substantial room for growth in the lower-tier markets [4] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Guoquan's competitive strategy includes a focus on popular products, a robust membership ecosystem, and innovative channel strategies. The "99 yuan beef tripe package" achieved sales of over 500 million yuan in 2024, with significant exposure on Douyin [5] - By the end of 2024, Guoquan had registered 41.3 million members, a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits reaching 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [5] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 7.183 billion yuan, 8.036 billion yuan, and 9.080 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 340 million yuan, 396 million yuan, and 463 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 25x, 21x, and 18x [5] Group 5: Industry Overview - The report on the new materials industry highlights the strategic opportunities arising from advancements in nuclear fusion technology, with significant investments and milestones expected in the coming years [7][8] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach 345.1 billion dollars by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% until 2037 [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading one-stop solution brand for home dining in China, ranking first among all retailers. It focuses on hot pot and barbecue meal categories, providing diverse, high-quality, and cost-effective products through a franchise model, establishing a significant scale advantage with a community central kitchen concept. After experiencing operational fluctuations during the pandemic, the company has innovated its store model, implemented a best-selling product strategy, and strengthened its membership ecosystem, leading to a recovery in same-store sales and a return to growth. Looking ahead, the company is expected to achieve sustainable growth through "quality supply, cost-effectiveness, and food equity" [3][11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has expanded its sales network from B2B to B2C since its establishment in 2015, growing from 1,441 stores in early 2020 to 10,150 stores by the end of 2024, covering all provinces in China [27][28]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has seen rapid growth, with a market size increasing from 3,248.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 5,615.6 billion RMB in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 14.7%. The proportion of home dining meal products is expected to rise from 4.55% in 2022 to 13.22% by 2027 [11][49][54]. Competitive Advantages - The company offers a three-pronged competitive advantage through products, channels, and supply chain integration. Its products are generally priced 60%-80% lower than social dining channels and about 20% lower than supermarket retail channels. The average profit margin for franchisees is between 8%-10%, indicating a healthy and sustainable model [11][12][14]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 71.2 billion RMB, 82.4 billion RMB, and 95.2 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 10.1%, 15.6%, and 15.6%. The gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 22.4% by 2027. The core operating net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20% over three years [12][16].