国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 资料来源：中纸网，隆众资讯 4 行情数据 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆常熟港库存68.5万吨，较上周期增涨8.7万吨，环比增涨14.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存152.0万吨，较上周上涨8.2万吨，环比上涨5.7%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆高栏港库存6.2万吨，较上周上涨3.0万吨，环比上涨93 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆常熟港库存68.5万吨，较上周期增涨8.7万吨，环比增涨14.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存152.0万吨，较上周上涨8.2万吨，环比上涨5.7%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆高栏港库存6.2万吨，较上周上涨3.0万吨，环比上涨93.8%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2026年2月26日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：240.1万吨，较上期累库20.6万吨，环比上涨9.4%，春节后主 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 5.00 CNY [7][21]. Core Insights - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in the specialty paper industry, focusing on both specialty paper and specialty materials, with a commitment to expanding production capacity and integrating pulp and paper operations [24][12]. - The specialty paper industry is experiencing weak growth overall, but the company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure to enhance competitiveness [2][24]. - The company has a stable revenue scale, with white card paper becoming a core business segment, expected to account for 50.6% of revenue by 2024 [24][25]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 7,403 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 7,588 million CNY in 2024, followed by a decrease to 7,070 million CNY in 2025, and then a recovery to 8,374 million CNY in 2026 and 8,726 million CNY in 2027 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -46 million CNY in 2023, recovering to 184 million CNY in 2024, but dropping to -50 million CNY in 2025, and then significantly increasing to 459 million CNY in 2026 and 540 million CNY in 2027 [4][13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.03 CNY in 2023, 0.10 CNY in 2024, -0.03 CNY in 2025, 0.26 CNY in 2026, and 0.31 CNY in 2027 [4][13]. Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 230,000 tons for specialty paper and 90,000 tons for white card paper, with production lines located in Guangdong [12][29]. - The company maintains a high production and sales rate, consistently above 90%, indicating strong demand for its products [29][30]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and product development to enhance its market position, particularly in high-end applications [19][24].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational challenges faced by Guangdong Songyang Recycle Resources Co., Ltd. in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant decline in revenue and ongoing losses due to market conditions and industry competition [1][9]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a total revenue of approximately 222.62 million yuan, a decrease of 37.22% compared to the same period last year [2][14]. - The total profit for the period was a loss of approximately 45.95 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 60.02 million yuan in the previous year [2][9]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.94% to approximately 405.21 million yuan [2][9]. - The total assets of the company were approximately 1.21 billion yuan, down 7.09% from the previous year [2][9]. Industry Context - The paper and paper products industry in China experienced a profit decline of 21.4% in the first half of 2025, with total profits amounting to 17.57 billion yuan [3][4]. - The industry faced challenges such as overcapacity and weak downstream demand, leading to negative sales margins [9][10]. - The shift towards green and low-carbon production methods is becoming crucial for survival and competitiveness in the paper industry [4][10]. Main Business Operations - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of environmentally friendly recycled paper, focusing on high-strength corrugated paper and specialty paper [4][5]. - The production capacity includes an annual output of 180,000 tons of high-strength corrugated paper and 1 billion square meters of specialty paper [5][6]. - The company has established a strong market presence in the eastern Guangdong region, particularly in the packaging and logistics sectors [4][11]. Financial Performance Analysis - The operating costs decreased by 36.21% to approximately 235.75 million yuan, reflecting efforts to manage expenses amid declining revenues [14]. - Research and development expenses were reduced by 43.33% to approximately 5.32 million yuan, indicating a strategic focus on cost management [14]. - The company continues to face challenges with negative gross margins, necessitating further operational adjustments and strategic initiatives [9][10].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 171.1 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 83.34% to 1.963 million yuan [1] Business Overview - The company's main businesses include anti-counterfeiting traceability systems and comprehensive copyright services, as well as business information paper products [1] - The company owns multiple brand series such as "Annie," "King," "Little Warrior," and "Bright Color," covering a full range of products including copy paper, thermal paper, carbonless paper, color inkjet printing paper, and double glue paper [1] Anti-Counterfeiting and Traceability Systems - In the first half of 2025, the company utilized advanced technologies such as big data, RFID solutions, and artificial intelligence to build an anti-counterfeiting traceability and intellectual property protection service platform [1] - The platform provides a comprehensive solution for brand protection, including smart packaging materials, system software, data collection and analysis, private domain marketing, channel management, copyright protection, and brand rights protection [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Guanhao High-Tech Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a total profit loss of approximately 92.16 million yuan, marking a 236.07% decrease compared to the same period last year [2][3]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company recorded a total revenue of approximately 3.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.47% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately -57.93 million yuan, a decline of 168.35% compared to the previous year [2]. - The total assets increased by 3.43% to approximately 11.61 billion yuan, while the net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.41% to approximately 4.48 billion yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The domestic paper and paperboard production reached approximately 79.33 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, but the ex-factory prices decreased by 3.2%, leading to a revenue decline of 2.3% [3]. - The demand for thermal paper continued to grow, driven by the rapid expansion of logistics and express delivery industries, with the national express business volume reaching approximately 95.64 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [3][4]. - The special paperboard industry experienced weak growth, with an increase in production capacity leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand, resulting in low market prices [3][4]. Business Operations - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of specialty papers and materials, including thermal paper, sublimation transfer paper, and high-grade coated white cardboard [5][6]. - The production capacity for specialty paper is approximately 230,000 tons annually, with a coating capacity of 193,000 tons [6]. - The company has developed various differentiated functional products, such as high-temperature labels and environmentally friendly thermal paper, which have shown significant market application effects [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end green specialty paper industry and developing strategic emerging industries to create a second growth curve [12][13]. - The company is investing in a 400,000-ton chemical pulp project to ensure raw material supply and reduce production costs [12][14]. - The company is also advancing its digital transformation and smart manufacturing initiatives to improve operational efficiency and decision-making processes [15][16].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 22.723 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - Net profit for the same period was 4.004 billion RMB, with an adjusted basic earnings per American Depositary Share of 5.31 RMB [1] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by an increase in online consumption penetration and a shift in the customer base towards higher-value groups [1] Group 2 - Revenue from the core express delivery business increased by 10.4% to 22.364 billion RMB, attributed to a 17.7% increase in parcel volume and a 6.2% decrease in parcel unit price [2] - A significant portion of the express service revenue, 74.4%, came from fees charged to network partners for services such as parcel sorting and trunk transportation [2] - Direct customer revenue, including delivery fees from direct sales agencies, increased by 140.9% due to a rise in e-commerce returns [2] Group 3 - Revenue from material sales, primarily from thermal paper used for printing electronic waybills, increased by 12.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Other income sources included financial loan services [2]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 22.723 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 4.004 billion RMB, with an adjusted basic earnings per American Depositary Share of 5.31 RMB [1] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by an increase in online consumption penetration and a shift in the customer base towards higher-value groups [1] Group 2 - The core express delivery business revenue increased by 10.4% to 22.364 billion RMB, attributed to a 17.7% increase in parcel volume and a 6.2% decrease in parcel unit price [2] - A significant portion of the express service revenue, 74.4%, came from fees charged to network partners for services such as parcel sorting and trunk transportation [2] - Direct customer revenue, including delivery fees from direct sales agencies, increased by 140.9% due to a rise in e-commerce returns [2] Group 3 - Revenue from material sales, primarily thermal paper for printing electronic waybills, increased by 12.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Other income sources included financial loan services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Shanghai International Paper Exhibition will be held at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, featuring an exhibition area of 120,000 square meters, with an expected attendance of 100,000 visitors and 1,200 exhibitors, highlighting the importance of outstanding exhibition design for participating companies [1] Group 1: Exhibition Goals and Budget Planning - Companies must clearly define their exhibition objectives, such as launching new packaging paper or enhancing their green brand image through sustainable paper production [3] - Budget allocation is crucial, with recommendations to spend 40%-50% on design and construction, 20%-30% on exhibits, and 10%-20% on personnel and promotion [4] Group 2: Design Key Points - The exhibition style should reflect the company's product characteristics, such as using an art gallery theme for artistic paper or an industrial design for industrial paper [6] - Space layout should include designated areas for product display, meetings, and interactive experiences to enhance visitor engagement [9] Group 3: Material Quality and Construction - It is essential to select materials that meet safety and environmental standards, ensuring structural integrity and health safety during the exhibition [11] - Construction should adhere strictly to design specifications, with a detailed schedule to manage the setup process effectively [13][14] Group 4: Product Arrangement - Products should be displayed according to their characteristics, with lightweight artistic papers suspended and heavier materials stacked for visibility [15] - Special display props can enhance product features, such as showcasing waterproof capabilities through transparent containers [16]