2H25收入增势有望延续，利润率改善趋势有望延续 虽下半年进入饮料销售旺季市场竞争有所加剧，该行认为公司整体动销态势较为稳健，同时叠加焕神、 无糖茶、电解质水等新品表现亮眼，公司亦积极推动一元乐享等加强消费者沟通的促销方式，该行预计 下半年公司饮料增长势头有望延续，食品板块各产品亦保持较好增速态势，该行预计下半年将维持。利 润率端，该行预计下半年毛利率延续提升趋势，同时公司亦注重产品结构提升及稼动率，费用投入根据 市场竞争状态动态调整，但公司将持续致力于提升费用使用效率，该行预计下半年利润率持续提升，全 年公司利润有望实现高增。 2Q25公司饮料业务因逐渐步入旺季市场竞争激烈，该行预计饮料收入增速放缓，分品类看该行预计冰 红茶主要承压，主要受竞争对手均开始布局冰红茶类似含糖茶品类致竞争加剧影响，而统一绿茶、奶茶 延续健康增长趋势，该行预计整体1H25饮料业务收入同比实现中高个位数增长。食品方面，该行预计 2Q实现中高个位数增长，整体表现稳健延续1Q趋势，其中汤达人增速自1Q转正以来继续维持正增长， 茄皇表现持续亮眼，红烧牛肉面及老坛酸菜延续Q1发展趋势。整体看，该行预计公司1H25收入同比高 个位数增长，饮料 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the beverage sector, viewing it as a preferred sub-sector within essential consumer goods, with long-term sales growth expected to support profit growth prospects for 2025 [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts and Target Price Adjustments - The firm has raised net profit forecasts for food and beverage companies by up to 9% and adjusted target prices by 7% to +25%, reflecting cost efficiencies, product cycles, and an extension of valuations to mid-2026 [1] - Year-to-date, the stock prices of covered Chinese beverage companies have increased by 19%, outperforming the MSCI China Consumer Staples Index's 8% gain [1] Group 2: Competition and Market Dynamics - Increased competition from takeout subsidies has led to greater pricing discounts for ready-to-drink beverages, potentially impacting market share in the short term [2] - The firm notes that while ready-to-drink beverage outlets number over 600,000, the impact of ready-to-drink beverages on the overall beverage industry remains limited [2] Group 3: Sales Impact Analysis - Scenario analysis indicates that ready-to-drink and freshly made beverage consumption may have a mutual cannibalization effect of about 50%, with seasonal subsidies boosting sales by 25% to 45% during peak periods [3] - The overall impact on ready-to-drink beverage sales is projected to be in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range [3] Group 4: Product Cycle and Consumer Trends - The product cycle remains a key driver, with no-sugar beverages, new flavors, and sports/energy drinks experiencing growth, contributing over 20% to beverage sales by 2025 [4] - Notable products include Dongpeng Beverage's "Brewed Water" and "Fruit Tea," as well as Nongfu Spring's "Oriental Tree Leaf," which are expected to see significant sales growth [4] Group 5: Profit Margin Resilience - Despite concerns over promotional risks affecting product prices, the firm believes that cost efficiencies will keep reinvestment levels manageable [5] - The forecast for unit cost reductions has been revised to 2.3% to 6.3%, with expectations that this will offset a decline in product prices of 1.0% to 3.2% [5] - The analysis suggests that overall costs could decrease by 1.2% to 5.3% if spot prices are utilized, theoretically countering the impact of price declines [5]

Group 1 - The company reported a significant increase in unaudited net profit for Q1 2025, reaching 602 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 32% compared to Q1 2024's 457 million yuan [1][2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to 0.51, 0.60, and 0.68 yuan respectively, from previous estimates of 0.47, 0.52, and 0.58 yuan [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 10.20 yuan per share, equivalent to 10.97 Hong Kong dollars per share based on the exchange rate of 0.93 [1] Group 2 - The decline in raw material prices, specifically polyester bottle chips and white sugar, has positively impacted the company's profitability, with polyester bottle chips prices down 12.07% and white sugar prices down 7.75% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [2] - The company is expected to benefit from continued cost reductions in Q2 2025, as prices for polyester bottle chips and white sugar have shown further declines [2] - New product launches, including a sugar-free tea and an energy drink with promotional activities, are anticipated to drive future sales and enhance overall performance [2]

Core Insights - The beverage distribution industry is facing significant challenges, with distributors caught between brand pressures and market demands, leading to reduced profit margins and increased financial strain [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High-margin products are experiencing shrinking profits while costs are escalating, including rising storage rents and doubled wages for truck drivers [3] - E-commerce platforms and supermarkets are bypassing distributors, leading to price discrepancies where retail prices are lower than wholesale prices, creating market chaos [3][5] - The fragmentation of distribution channels is complicating the situation for traditional distributors, as new sales models like community group buying and instant retail are gaining traction [5] Group 2: Product Trends - Brands are aggressively launching new products in the electrolyte water segment, with companies like Unification and Nongfu Spring introducing innovative flavors and formulations to meet consumer demand [7][9] - The functional beverage market is also heating up, with brands updating their offerings to enhance value propositions, such as larger packaging and simplified purchasing processes [9][11] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - The demand for electrolyte water is expanding, with products now catering to a variety of consumer needs, including muscle recovery and immune support [11][13] - Brands are focusing on convenience and portability in product design, aligning with consumer lifestyles that require on-the-go hydration solutions [13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The functional beverage market in China is projected to reach a scale of 281 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [9] - Despite the challenges, the electrolyte water segment shows promising growth potential, suggesting that distributors may still find viable opportunities in this category [9][15]