前几天，跟几个食品饮料的渠道负责人聊天。他们说，这两年有个很特别的情况：只要公司对哪个产品盯得紧，那这个产品的销量不见 得有多好。相反，当公司对这个产品的预期没那么高、不再管、不天天追踪区域终端动作的时候，这个产品反而会卖得很不错。 而总部所有衡量费用的投入，比如我现在要加15%的费用，我的预期不是产生15%的销售额，肯定是要20%往上，才能证明我的投入有价 值。要产生这样的销量，我必须要求终端业务员把自己的工作重点往我这款产品上挪。比如，你的排面过往是3-4个排面，你现在是不是 要6-7个排面，你以前的陈列是以地堆冰柜为常规手段，你现在是不是要多一些二位陈列。 你在原来的陈列不是黄金角度，现在是不是要弄成黄金陈列面，你过往只是做批发、做夫妻店，现在是不是可以把网点做的更多一些， 那些漏点跳点特渠都补上。除了这些是不是终端的宣传物料要多弄一些，来进行拦截，经销商的库存是不是要多弄些货。 现在都是手机监控，总部追业绩，列个三四条考核内容，到区域业务的时候，这个考核就得是十条起步了。这导致的结果就是业务员到 终端的执行动作完全变形。 同样，总部的产品经理们因为投入的费用增加，想的就是要产生相应的成绩。这是一个专案 ...

10月9日，港交所官网披露，功能饮料品牌"东鹏特饮"母公司东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"东鹏饮料"）向港交所主板提交上市申请书，华泰 国际、摩根士丹利、瑞银集团为联席保荐人。 作者 | 郝文 编辑 | 趣解商业资讯组 | 图片来源：招股书 | | --- | 截图 对于此次上市，东鹏饮料称，本次募集所得资金净额将主要用于完善产能布局和推进供应链升级；加强品牌建设和消费者互动，持续增强品牌影响力；持续 推进全国化战略，拓展、深耕和精细化运营渠道网络；拓展海外市场业务，探索潜在投资和并购机会；加强各个业务环节的数字化建设；增强产品开发能 力，持续实现产品品类拓展；以及用作营运资金及一般企业用途。 值得一提的是，该公司曾于2025年4月3日向港交所递交上市申请，不过招股书于10月3日失效。2021年，东鹏饮料成功登陆A股，成为A股市场的"功能饮料 第一股"，此次递表，则是谋求"A+H"上市。 图片来源：微博截图 分析人士认为，东鹏饮料赴港上市有着多重考量。首先，港股作为国际资本市场，可以为东鹏品牌走向海外赋能。公司希望借助香港平台吸引全球投资者， 提升品牌认知度，为日后进军东南亚等海外市场铺路。东鹏饮料自 ...

招商证券发布研报称，7-8月大众品整体需求相对平淡，调味品等板块受餐饮需求弱复苏拖累。进入9月 看需求随餐饮环比复苏有所改善，双节期间消费、出行相对平稳，餐饮景气度有所提升。白酒双节动销 符合预期，高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此前预期。零食、饮料仍保持较高景气度，调味品、速冻等板 块实际动销有所改善，啤酒表现平淡，乳制品动销仍承压。继续推荐高景气赛道，同时考虑到餐饮旺季 逐步到来，以及外卖大战、禁酒令等影响逐步消化，建议关注餐饮链板块及公司的业绩逐步改善节奏。 具体跟踪如下 白酒：双节动销符合预期，高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此前预期。25年中秋国庆节后反馈白酒总体销 售同比下滑约20%，与节前预期基本一致。展望后续，Q4继续关注供给侧收缩信号及需求边际修复速 率。 调味品：9月动销改善，餐饮有所复苏。7-8月受整体需求平淡叠加餐饮弱复苏影响，调味品板块表现较 弱。9月餐饮逐步复苏，实际动销环比改善，进入双节备货阶段库存同比略有提升。中秋国庆期间整体 动销同比去年有所提升，其中餐饮需求复苏对板块有所拉动。 乳制品：液奶需求平淡，双节动销承压。7-8月伊利液奶下滑低个位数。9月预计伊利液奶仍下滑低个位 数。双节渠道 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 10 月 09 日 白酒符合预期，餐饮链环比改善 25 年中秋国庆食品饮料跟踪专题报告 消费品/食品饮料 双节整体数据看，消费、出行相对平稳，假期前四天全国重点零售和餐饮企业 销售额同比增长 3.3%，整个假期间日均人员流动量 3.04 亿人次，同比增长 6.2% 略好于此前预期。根据公司与渠道反馈，双节期间板块表现分化，整体景气度 来看，零食>饮料>餐饮链（调味品、啤酒、速冻）>乳制品>白酒，其中调味品 受益于餐饮改善，双节动销略好于预期，白酒高端酒与宴席场景表现较好于此 前预期。建议继续关注高景气赛道，同时考虑到餐饮旺季逐步到来，以及外卖 大战、禁酒令等影响消化，关注白酒报表出清&餐饮链板块公司业绩改善。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 相关报告 1、《25 年中秋国庆白酒渠道跟踪专 题报告—需求缺口依然存在，马太效 应加剧》2025-09-28 2、《食品饮料行业周报（9.21）— 白酒关注双节动销，乳制品把握结构 性机会》2025-09-22 3、《食品饮料行业周报（9.14）— 首推零食&港股细分龙头，关注白酒 双节动销》2025-09-14 | 陈书慧 S10 ...

Summary of Nongfu Spring Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Nongfu Spring - **Industry**: Beverage Industry, specifically bottled water and sugar-free tea Key Points and Arguments Market Performance and Stock Valuation - Nongfu Spring's stock price has shown strong performance, benefiting from short-term data catalysts and the impact of the Wahaha incident, leading to an expected increase in market share in the bottled water segment [2][4] - The company's stock has more than doubled since its lowest point last year, with a year-to-date increase of over 60% in 2025 [4] - Current stock price is expected to reach a PE valuation of approximately 30 times by 2026, with an optimistic estimate of up to 35 times, indicating a potential overall return of 20-25% [2][8] Financial Performance and Projections - For 2025, Nongfu Spring's net profit is projected to be revised up to 15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 25% [2][5] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of around 15% in 2025, with profit growth returning to a normal level of about 15% in 2026 [5][11] - The strong performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to the low base effect from the previous year and increased revenue in the second half [5][10] Growth Drivers - The growth of sugar-free tea and bottled water is expected to drive overall industry growth, with sugar-free tea showing a faster penetration rate [2][6] - The projected revenue for sugar-free tea in 2025 is around 15 billion yuan, with a long-term target of 20 billion yuan [3][9] - Price reductions in sugar-free tea are anticipated to enhance penetration rates, further driving volume growth [3][9] Competitive Landscape and Market Position - Despite concerns about increased competition potentially affecting profitability, Nongfu Spring is expected to maintain a reasonable profit level and stable revenue growth [10] - The company holds a strong brand presence and recognition, positioning it as a leading player in the growth segment of the beverage market [4][6] Investment Considerations - Investors are encouraged to focus on Nongfu Spring's value as a leading company in the sector, especially after the recent adjustments and the low base effect from previous challenges [8][10] - The overall investment outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued high valuation status due to multiple favorable factors [4][8] Additional Important Insights - The impact of the Wahaha incident has created opportunities for Nongfu Spring to capture additional market share in the bottled water sector [4] - The company's strong brand equity and market position are expected to sustain its growth trajectory in the competitive beverage landscape [6][10]

Group 1 - The "health economy" is effectively capturing the "Z generation" through product innovation and social media marketing, with traditional Chinese medicine brands attracting young consumers by offering health-focused products like herbal teas and scented candles [2] - Functional beverages and tea drinks are rapidly replacing traditional bottled water, with significant growth expected in these categories driven by health and personalization demands, while the bottled water market faces stagnation due to oversaturation and price wars [3] - The prepared food industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with major players like Weizhi and Qianwei experiencing revenue declines due to rising raw material costs and intensified competition, despite the overall market size continuing to expand [4] Group 2 - The tea beverage market is showing signs of differentiation, with Nongfu Spring experiencing a 15.6% revenue increase, while Kangshifu's tea beverage revenue declined by 6.3%, attributed to decreased demand for sugary teas and channel contraction [5] - Japan's mature functional food market offers insights for developing senior food products in China, where the aging population presents a significant market opportunity, necessitating diverse and functional food offerings [7] - Energy drinks are shifting from being favored by laborers to becoming popular among younger consumers, with the market size reaching 111.4 billion yuan, driven by health-conscious formulations and appealing packaging [8] Group 3 - The ready-to-drink tea market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% by 2034, with emotional satisfaction and taste optimization being key purchasing drivers [9] - The no-sugar tea market is transitioning from explosive growth to intense competition, with brands focusing on taste innovation to maintain market share as health consciousness rises [11] - Major food and beverage companies are actively investing in product innovation and strategic acquisitions to navigate economic uncertainties, with Coca-Cola and Nestlé reporting significant revenue growth [12] Group 4 - Yonghui Supermarket has launched a new bakery product, "Camellia Flower Toast," emphasizing health and quality, contributing to a noticeable increase in sales [13] - Mengniu's milk powder segment has achieved growth through scientific innovation and targeted marketing, with a reported revenue increase of 2.5% [14] - Wangzai Milk has introduced regionally themed packaging to resonate with local cultures, enhancing brand engagement and driving sales [15] Group 5 - Haidilao has opened a dessert shop to attract customers during off-peak hours, responding to declining revenue and foot traffic [16] - Yuanqi Forest has rapidly grown its market share in the no-sugar sparkling water segment, achieving sales of 11.7 billion yuan, but faces challenges related to product dependency and competition [18] - Yili's new health-focused drink, "Stone Flower and Western Ginseng Water," targets the growing market for traditional health beverages, with a projected market size of 3 billion yuan by 2024 [19] Group 6 - Ziguangyuan has opened a new yogurt station that combines baked goods and snacks, aiming to diversify its product offerings and attract a broader customer base [20] - Yuanqi Forest's "Good Free" series has entered the international market, showcasing a successful blend of traditional health culture and modern consumer demands [21] - The restaurant brand Blue Frog has launched a bakery section to counteract slowing growth, indicating a strategic pivot to enhance customer engagement [23]

Core Insights - The consumption of sugar-free beverages in China has transitioned from a niche interest to a mainstream choice, with labels like "0 sugar, 0 fat, 0 calories" dominating convenience store shelves [1] - Suntory, a pioneer in introducing sugar-free tea to China, faces significant challenges in redefining its brand position in a well-educated market [1] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Today's Chinese consumers are not only seeking health but also understanding it, with over 70% of them carefully examining ingredients and nutritional benefits when purchasing beverages [2] - The shift from "sugar-free" to "knowledgeable consumption" indicates a growing demand for transparency in product ingredients and health claims [2][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Sugar-free beverages are increasingly viewed as substitutes for water, leading to heightened price sensitivity among consumers as they expect more value [5] - Suntory is responding to this trend by launching larger bottle sizes to cater to family consumption and frequent drinking scenarios [5][7] Group 3: Brand Trust and Consumer Perception - The label "0 sugar" has become a double-edged sword, as consumers are increasingly questioning whether sugar-free equates to healthy, especially after controversies surrounding alternative sweeteners [8][10] - Young consumers are now more inclined to read ingredient labels and seek scientific backing for health claims, shifting the competitive focus from marketing slogans to clear explanations [10] Group 4: Social and Emotional Factors - Sugar-free beverages serve as social symbols, representing a lifestyle choice among health-conscious consumers, which influences brand marketing strategies [11] - Suntory's recent collaborations and marketing efforts aim to resonate with younger audiences, positioning the brand as a modern companion in their lifestyle [13] Group 5: Future Outlook - The sugar-free beverage market is entering a phase of "mind share" competition, where brands must excel in ingredient transparency, price competitiveness, and emotional resonance [15] - By 2030, the market may see three distinct paths: functional beverages with clear health benefits, affordable sugar-free options as water substitutes, and emotionally-driven branding through collaborations and digital engagement [18][21]

Group 1 - The core theme of the 16th China Food Safety Forum is "Integrity and Law-abiding, Sharing Food Safety" [1] - The company has 75 production bases and 561 production lines across China, with a household penetration rate exceeding 80% [1] - The company has been ranked among the top three consumer brands in China for 13 consecutive years [1] Group 2 - The company actively responds to health safety concerns by launching products that align with the "three reductions" policy: reducing sugar, salt, and fat [1] - The company employs isotope technology for origin gene identification and uses genetic technology to prevent product adulteration [1] Group 3 - The company has implemented a management mechanism for production dates to address common pain points, achieving clear visibility and accuracy [2] - The food safety control center has the capability to test for 1,700 types of heavy metals and pesticide residues, conducting over 3.5 million tests annually [2] - The company has established a three-tier food safety defense system, including research, prevention, and quality control [2] Group 4 - The company has a supplier management mechanism that includes strict entry criteria and a mentorship model to enhance supplier capabilities [2] - The company conducts annual assessments of suppliers based on quality, cost, and delivery, with an elimination rate of approximately 5% [2] Group 5 - The company has implemented five key measures for channel management, including real-time monitoring and rapid response to market product inspections [2] - The company organizes an annual "Food Safety Awareness Month" to promote food safety education and public supervision [2] Group 6 - The company is advancing its digital factory construction with technologies such as big data, AI recognition, and X-ray detection to ensure product safety and quality [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **food and beverage industry**, focusing on various segments such as **liquor, beer, soft drinks, dairy products, snacks, condiments, and frozen foods** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Liquor Market - The **liquor market** is impacted by the downturn in the real estate sector, but the rigid demand leads to relatively small fluctuations. The demand during the Spring Festival supports self-drinking and gifting needs [1][9]. - Investment and collection attributes of liquor have weakened since 2021, leading to risk release. Future growth drivers depend on price increase capabilities, relying on social and investment attributes [1][12]. - The **white liquor market** has a production scale of **800 billion RMB**. The market is characterized by strong price increase potential and a shift towards premiumization [4][10]. Beer Industry - The **beer industry** has seen slow sales growth, with a production scale of **300 billion RMB**. The competition is characterized by multiple strong players, each with their profit pools [4][13]. - The high-end beer segment is growing, but the overall market is experiencing a slow recovery post-pandemic. The immediate consumption market is weak, while instant retail is rising rapidly [14]. Soft Drinks - The **soft drink market** is nearly **700 billion RMB** in size, with a diverse range of products. The market is witnessing a significant health trend, with rapid growth in sugar-free tea and energy drinks [1][17]. - The carbonated beverage market is dominated by **Coca-Cola and Pepsi**, with pricing strategies impacting competition. Coca-Cola plans to increase prices from **3 RMB to 3.5 RMB** [18]. Dairy Products - The **dairy industry** is valued at approximately **300 billion RMB**, with a duopoly between **Yili and Mengniu**. The market for long-life milk and yogurt is saturated, while fresh milk and cheese have growth potential [4][22]. Snacks - The **snack industry** benefits from channel transformations, with increased price sensitivity driving the growth of discount stores and e-commerce. The health trend is significant, with healthier snack options emerging [1][23]. Condiments and Frozen Foods - The **condiment market** is valued at nearly **500 billion RMB**, with soy sauce and pickled vegetables performing well. The market shows high consumer stickiness and pricing power [2][24]. - The **frozen food sector** faced challenges post-pandemic, requiring innovation and new channels for growth [2][24]. Lifecycle Stages of Segments - Different segments are at various lifecycle stages, with craft beer and coconut water in the introduction phase, while high-end liquor and sugar-free tea are in the growth phase [6]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape varies, with some segments dominated by a single player (e.g., high-end liquor) and others exhibiting a more fragmented structure [7][8]. Future Trends and Challenges - The liquor industry faces challenges from the real estate downturn but maintains rigid demand due to its social attributes. Future price increases depend on economic conditions [9][12]. - The beer industry is adapting to changes in consumer behavior and channel dynamics, with a focus on high-end products [14][13]. Conclusion - The food and beverage industry is characterized by diverse segments, each with unique growth drivers, competitive dynamics, and challenges. The focus on health trends, premiumization, and channel innovation will shape the future landscape of the industry [1][2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the resignation of Suntory Holdings' CEO, Niinami Takeshi, due to his involvement in a police investigation related to the purchase of a potentially illegal health product [1][4] - Suntory stated that the health product in question is not one of its own products [2] - The company has emphasized the importance of compliance with laws and regulations for its executives, particularly regarding the purchase of health products [4] Group 2 - Suntory Holdings has a significant presence in the sugar-free tea market in China, which has become a key pillar of its business in the region [6] - In 2023, Suntory's global sales reached approximately 150 billion yuan, with the Asia and Oceania market accounting for 19% of total sales, up from 16% in 2020 [6] - However, Suntory's market share in the sugar-free tea segment in China has declined from 21.12% to 12.04% in the first half of 2024, due to increased competition from brands like Genki Forest and Nongfu Spring [6]