食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能饮品长期向好 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：春节动销回暖结构分化，看好健康化饮品赛道龙头 2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.5%，一级子行业排名第 2 ...

食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《春节动销趋势向好，聚焦龙头布局 景气赛道—行业周报》-2026.2.23 《包装水行业发展稳健，头部分化孕 育 结 构 性 机 遇 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.11 《复苏态势明朗，板块预期乐观—行 业周报》-2026.2.8 节后需求稳健格局优化，健康功能饮品长期向好 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：春节动销回暖结构分化，看好健康化饮品赛道龙头 2 月 23 日-2 月 27 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.5%，一级子行业排名第 2 ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2026-2027年实现营业收入118/127亿元（同比变 动+7%/+7% ），归母净利润12.1/14.0亿元（同比变动+26%/+16%），对应PE分别为21X/18X，维持"增 持"评级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 水业务挑战与机遇共存 该行认为，数字化能够有效赋能饮料生产端及渠道端，在生产端，根据中国食品工业协会，数字化智能 化改造能将饮料生产的综合效率提升20%-30%；在渠道端，目前东鹏饮料（605499）凭借"五码合一"掌 握终端动销数据，实现单点效益的有效监控。公司在数字化建设方面仍有较为充足的发展空间，2012- 2020年期间高立先生担任华润饮料财务总监，曾经全面推广终端管理系统SUP和经销商协同平台 DMS，后续有望引领公司打造全链路数字化。 渠道扁平化改革 2025年公司推行渠道改革，通过渠道层级削减、增加单层级利润，提升渠道效率以及客户积极性，同时 设立饮料专项经销商、拓展新兴渠道（扩大线上销售、自动贩卖机销售）、突破餐饮等核心渠道、开发 特渠经销商。该行认为渠道改革虽然短期会引起业绩端阵痛，但长期来看将利好公司增强终端掌 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the company's focus on improving cost control efficiency, with a sales expense ratio of 30.4% in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points. The new chairman, Mr. Gao Li, is expected to implement more precise financial management strategies while maintaining business growth [7] - The company is undergoing a comprehensive digital transformation, which is anticipated to enhance production efficiency by 20%-30% through digital upgrades. The company has ample room for development in digitalization, having previously implemented management systems that could lead to a fully digitalized supply chain [7] - The company is reforming its distribution channels by reducing channel layers and enhancing single-layer profits, which is expected to improve channel efficiency and customer engagement. Although this may cause short-term performance pain, it is projected to strengthen the company's control over the terminal market in the long run [8] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 11.058 billion, 11.823 billion, and 12.670 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -18%, +7%, and +7% [8] - The projected net profit for the same years is 962 million, 1.209 billion, and 1.403 billion RMB, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -41%, +26%, and +16% [8] - The report estimates the company's PE ratios to be 26X, 21X, and 18X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8] Market Performance and Business Outlook - The company's bottled water business faces challenges due to industry price wars, with a market share decline of approximately 3 percentage points for its flagship brand, Yibao, in the first half of 2025. However, the bottled water market is expected to grow, with the pure water market projected to reach 179.8 billion RMB by 2028 [9] - The beverage segment is diversifying with new product launches, including herbal drinks, sugar-free tea, sports drinks, and ready-to-drink coffee. The company introduced 14 new SKUs in H1 2025, marking a historical high in innovation density [9]

智通财经APP获悉，太平洋证券发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2025-2027年营业收入分别为 114.7/122.4/131.2亿元，同比增长-15%/+7%/+7%，归母净利润分别为12.8/14.1/15.5亿元，同比增 长-22%/+11%/+10%，对应PE为20X/18X/16X，给予增持评级。 太平洋证券主要观点如下： 纯净水行业龙头，立足华南迈向全国，饮料业务加速布局 华润饮料起步于华南，历经40多年发展已成为国内第二大包装水企业，市场份额达18.4%。2021-2024年 公司营业收入从113.40增长至135.21亿元，CAGR达6.04%，净利润从8.58增长至16.61亿元，CAGR达 24.63%，毛利率提升&销售费用率下行带动利润弹性凸显。公司收入结构以包装饮用水为主，2025H1 占比84.6%，近几年公司饮料业务加速布局增长亮眼，占比从2021年的4.6%提升至2025H1的15.4%。 包装水行业需求稳健，品牌&渠道基础扎实，全国化空间广阔 根据欧睿数据显示，中国包装水市场规模由2010年的509亿元提升至2024年的2199亿元，CAGR达到 11.02%，健康、安 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-Hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth, indicating a shift in consumer spending towards second-hand goods [6][7][8][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, young consumers are increasingly spending on pets, leading to significant growth in pet food and healthcare products. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend [12][13][15][16]. - **Adult Care Products**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, showcasing the potential of the aging population as a lucrative market segment [17][18][19]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changing demographics and rising health awareness have led to the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China, with brands like Suntory and Dongpeng gaining traction [21][22]. - **Beauty and Aesthetic Products**: The demand for beauty products, including collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that consumers prioritize personal care even in economic downturns [23][24][26]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: Companies in the outdoor equipment sector, such as Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese brands, are benefiting from increased interest in outdoor activities as a form of stress relief [29][31][32]. - **Convenience Economy**: The rise of frozen foods and smart home appliances reflects a shift towards convenience, with brands like Anjijia and Kewell seeing steady growth as consumers seek time-saving solutions [39][40][42]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend of reduced cooking time among younger generations has led to a preference for ready-to-eat meals and smart appliances that automate household tasks, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [39][40][42]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are significant opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. Companies that can identify and act on these opportunities are likely to emerge as winners [44].

银行客户经理宋明达在常态化走访中得知情况后，第一时间上门对接。他高效梳理企业资质、协调科创贷款绿色通道，仅用3个工作日就完成了从申请到 放款的全流程。"科创型企业是地方经济的活力源泉，我们就是要把金融服务送到企业心坎上，帮他们跨过难关。"宋明达说。 "公司拥有4万平方米的双智能工厂，并且全面通过了五大体系认证。其产品主要包括茶类饮料、果蔬汁饮料以及其他饮料。这些产品畅销德国、西班牙、 韩国等国家和地区。公司在与邮储银行（601658）高唐县支行合作的过程中，感受颇深。每当公司面临资金周转难题时，客户经理总能及时提供恰当的解 决方案。客户经理给予的不仅是授信贷款，还会主动上门，为公司出谋划策，积极帮公司对接上下游资源。这样的合作让我们倍感安心与踏实，也对未来 的发展更有信心。"山东多乐多食品有限公司总经理姜美昆说。 据了解，该行近年来聚焦县域实体企业，通过定制化金融服务、绿色通道审批，已为多家本土企业破解了融资难题。该行相关负责人表示，将持续当好企 业成长的"金融伙伴"，以精准服务打通银企共赢链路，助力地方饮品产业高质量发展。 齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点国晓宁通讯员魏艳军 近日，聊城市高唐县多乐多食品有限公司的生产车间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing health awareness among consumers is shifting beverage consumption patterns, yet the risks associated with sugar intake, particularly from sugary drinks, remain significant [1][2][4]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - The consumption of sugary beverages in China is stabilizing overall, with a notable shift towards healthier options like unsweetened tea and functional drinks, which have seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 90% in the past three years [2][4]. - In 2024, the total beverage production in China is expected to grow by 7.5%, with traditional high-sugar beverages declining in market share [2][4]. - The average daily intake of added sugars among urban residents aged 3 and above is reported at 9.1 grams, which is lower than many countries, but the per capita sugar consumption has increased from 16 grams to 35 grams over the past 20 years [3][4]. Group 2: Health Risks of Sugary Beverages - The average daily consumption of sugary drinks is 189 grams for children and adolescents, and 174 grams for adults, with many unaware of the high sugar content in seemingly healthy options like sports drinks and 100% fruit juices [4][5]. - Research indicates that for every additional 355 milliliters of sugary drinks consumed daily, the risk of developing type 2 diabetes increases by 25% [7]. - The consumption of sugary beverages is linked to significant health risks, including a high incidence of deaths related to ischemic heart disease and diabetes, with approximately 46,634 deaths attributed to high sugary drink intake in 2019 [7][8]. Group 3: Misconceptions and Awareness - Despite increased awareness of health risks, there are still misconceptions regarding the sugar content in beverages perceived as healthy, leading to continued high consumption of these drinks [5][6]. - The distinction between whole fruits and fruit juices, as well as between milk and sugary dairy drinks, is often not clearly communicated, resulting in a lack of understanding of the associated health risks [5][6]. - There is a growing concern that there is "almost no safe threshold" for sugary drink consumption, meaning that any intake can increase the risk of metabolic issues, particularly when these drinks are a primary source of added sugars [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing health consciousness among consumers, leading to a shift towards low-calorie products, yet the consumption of sugary beverages remains a significant health threat, particularly among adolescents [3][4]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - The consumption of sugary beverages in China is stabilizing overall, with a notable shift in structure; traditional high-sugar drinks are declining while sugar-free teas and functional drinks are experiencing significant growth, with sugar-free tea showing a compound annual growth rate of over 90% in the past three years [4][5]. - The average daily intake of added sugars among urban residents aged 3 and above is reported at 9.1 grams, which is below many countries, but the per capita daily sugar consumption has increased from 16 grams to 35 grams over the past 20 years [5][11]. Group 2: Health Risks of Sugary Beverages - Research indicates that liquid sugars pose a higher health risk, with a study showing that for every additional 355 milliliters of sugary drink consumed daily, the risk of developing type 2 diabetes increases by 25% [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that liquid sugars are absorbed quickly and do not trigger the same satiety signals as solid foods, leading to increased overall energy intake and a higher risk of metabolic issues [11][12]. Group 3: Misconceptions and Awareness - Despite increased awareness of health foods, there are still misconceptions about certain sugary drinks perceived as healthy, such as sports drinks and 100% fruit juices, which can contain high levels of natural sugars [7][8]. - The article stresses the need for better public education to differentiate between healthy and unhealthy sugar sources, as many consumers equate fruit and dairy content with health benefits, overlooking added sugars [8][9]. Group 4: Recommendations for Sugar Reduction - The report suggests focusing on reducing the consumption of specific sugary products, including carbonated drinks, fruit and vegetable juices, tea beverages, and dairy drinks, as part of a broader strategy to lower sugar intake [9][10].

Group 1 - The core issue is the persistent consumption of sugary beverages among adolescents, despite a general slowdown in overall sugary drink consumption [1][2] - Health awareness is rising, leading to a shift in consumer behavior towards low-calorie and sugar-free products, yet the threat of "hidden sugars" remains significant [1][2] - The production of sugary beverages in China is stabilizing, with a projected 7.5% growth in total beverage production in 2024, but traditional high-sugar drinks are declining in market share [2][3] Group 2 - The average daily intake of added sugars for urban residents in China is 9.1 grams, with a notable increase in sugar consumption over the past two decades, particularly among the youth [3][4] - The primary sources of added sugars for children and adolescents include sugar (28.2%), sugary dairy products (24.4%), beverages (17.7%), and baked goods (19.9%) [3][4] - There is a misconception regarding the healthiness of certain sugary drinks, such as sports drinks and 100% fruit juices, which can contain high levels of sugar [4][5] Group 3 - Liquid sugars pose significant health risks, with studies indicating that each additional 355 milliliters of sugary drink consumed daily increases the risk of type 2 diabetes by 25% [7][8] - The consumption of sugary beverages is linked to a high number of deaths in China, primarily due to ischemic heart disease and diabetes [7][8] - The metabolic response to liquid sugars differs from solid foods, leading to increased total energy intake and a higher risk of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes [7][8] Group 4 - There is no safe threshold for sugary drink consumption; even low levels can increase the risk of type 2 diabetes, emphasizing the need for reduced intake [9] - The dietary guidelines recommend limiting added sugars to 50 grams per day, ideally under 25 grams, but the focus on sugary drinks highlights a different risk profile [9] - The challenge remains in effectively managing the intake of liquid sugars, despite a growing consensus on the need to reduce sugar consumption [9]