丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨康师傅控股（0322.HK） [Table_Title] 康师傅控股 2025 年半年报业绩点评：短期收入 承压，盈利能力延续改善 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 盈利能力改善延续，股东回报维持高水平。以当前市值计，2024 年度分红的股息率超 7%。展 望未来，公司估值修复的核心或聚焦于收入端的企稳回升。随着提价的负面影响逐步被消化， 公司在下半年，有望实现收入端的逐季改善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 康师傅控股（0322.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 康师傅控股2]2025 年半年报业绩点评：短期收入 承压，盈利能力延续改善 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 康师傅控股 2025 年上半年实现营业收入 400.92 亿元，同比下降 2.7%；毛利率同比提 ...

Core Insights - The beverage price war this year is particularly intense, with significant discounts on products like milk tea and ready-to-drink beverages, leading to a surge in consumer orders and promotional activities [1][3][4] Group 1: Price War Dynamics - The price war encompasses a wide range of beverage categories, including carbonated drinks, tea, juice, and functional beverages, with promotional strategies like "1 yuan enjoyment" and "buy one get one" being prevalent [4][12] - Major brands such as Wahaha and Suntory have launched aggressive promotions for their sugar-free tea products, with high consumer engagement rates, indicating a competitive market environment [4][6] - Retail channels are also participating in the price war, offering promotions like "add 1 yuan for an extra bottle," further intensifying competition among brands [6] Group 2: Impact on Distributors - Distributors are facing financial strain due to delayed manufacturer subsidies and the need to cover costs upfront, leading to cash flow challenges [8] - Some distributors report difficulties in redeeming bottle caps for rewards, creating confusion and disputes over the promotional program [8][9] - There are reports of individuals exploiting promotional loopholes, creating a gray market for bottle caps, which undermines the integrity of the promotional activities [9] Group 3: Market Conditions and Consumer Behavior - The beverage market is experiencing saturation, leading to fierce competition for market share, with brands resorting to aggressive pricing strategies to attract consumers [13][15] - The rise of new tea drinks at lower prices is impacting the ready-to-drink market, with consumers increasingly prioritizing price over brand loyalty [15] - Economic changes have shifted consumer purchasing behavior, with 72% of consumers now prioritizing price when selecting beverages, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [15] Group 4: Long-term Implications - While short-term promotions like "1 yuan enjoyment" boost sales, they risk eroding industry profit margins and may lead to long-term losses for smaller brands [16] - The price war is cultivating a price-sensitive consumer base, which could lead to rapid customer loss if competitors offer lower prices [16] - Brands are encouraged to focus on delivering higher perceived value to retain customers, rather than solely competing on price [16]

Industry Overview - Instant noodle consumption in China has significantly declined, with a drop of 4 billion packages from 2020 to 2023, leading to a projected consumption of 438 billion packages in 2024, marking a notable decrease in popularity [1] - The industry leader, Master Kong, has experienced a revenue decline of 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with instant noodle revenue falling by 2.53% to 13.465 billion yuan, a decrease of 350 million yuan [2] - Competitors like Uni-President and White Elephant have shown growth, while Master Kong and Jinmailang have faced contraction [4] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly opting for alternatives such as takeout, pre-prepared meals, and self-heating foods, which offer better value compared to instant noodles [5] - The price of instant noodles has risen, with classic varieties now costing around 6 yuan and premium options reaching 15-20 yuan, with some high-end products priced at 79.9 yuan [7] Market Dynamics - The convenience of high-speed rail has reduced the demand for instant noodles traditionally consumed during travel, further impacting sales [8] - In response to market challenges, companies are innovating with new flavors and ingredients, such as adding unconventional items like herbs and even dessert flavors, which have gained popularity on social media [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Master Kong, highlighting a decline in revenue despite an increase in net profit, driven by a controversial pricing strategy and a lag in health-oriented product transformation [4][12][23]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Trends - Master Kong reported a revenue of approximately 400.92 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, equating to a loss of over 1.1 billion yuan in sales [4]. - Despite the revenue drop, net profit increased by 20.5% to 22.71 billion yuan, with an overall gross margin rising by 1.9 percentage points to 34.5% [12][13]. - The beverage segment saw a gross margin surge to 37.7%, while the instant noodle segment's gross margin reached 27.8% [13]. Group 2: Pricing Strategy and Market Response - A significant price increase in November 2023, where the retail price of tea and juice products rose by 17.6% to 25%, triggered a decline in sales [7][11]. - Following the price hike, consumer sensitivity to price changes became evident, with many retailers selling products below the suggested retail price, indicating resistance to the price increase [10][11]. - The number of distributors and direct retailers decreased significantly, with 3,409 fewer distributors and 1,499 fewer direct retailers in the first half of 2025 [11]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The decline in high-priced instant noodle sales by 7.2% and the overall revenue drop in the instant noodle segment reflect a shift towards more affordable options among consumers [15][21]. - Competitors in the health-oriented beverage market, such as Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring, have gained market share, highlighting Master Kong's lag in health-focused product offerings [15][23]. - The company is attempting to diversify its product range with a multi-tiered pricing strategy and new product launches aimed at different market segments [16][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - Master Kong's management emphasizes a long-term development approach focused on consumer needs, but the strategy of sacrificing sales for profit has drawn criticism [23]. - The company faces significant challenges from a changing consumer landscape, including a shift towards healthier options and increased competition in the beverage and instant noodle markets [23].

Core Insights - The company reported a robust performance in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching approximately 400.92 billion yuan and a net profit of 22.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 20.5% [1] - The overall gross margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 34.5%, indicating a strong quality development trend [1] Instant Noodle Business - Revenue from the instant noodle segment was 134.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 27.8% and a net profit growth of 11.9% to 9.5 billion yuan [1] - The classic "Braised Beef Noodle" maintained its leading sales position, while the "Fresh Q Noodle" gained recognition for its "0-fried" patented technology [1] - New product launches, such as the "Oriental Food Collection" series and the "Kang Shifu 1.5 times" large portion products, contributed to growth, alongside nearly double-digit growth in the "Crispy" snack noodle segment [1] - The company expanded its distribution channels by incorporating emerging channels like membership stores and community group buying, achieving over 10 million yuan in sales for the limited edition "Chao Lu Beef Three Treasures Noodle" in its first month [1] - The introduction of aerospace patented temperature control technology enhanced production precision and strengthened food safety management [1] Beverage Business - The beverage segment generated revenue of 263.59 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 37.7% and a net profit growth of 19.7% to 13.35 billion yuan [2] - The ready-to-drink tea category developed a matrix of "popular hits + health upgrades + premium innovations," launching new products like "sugar-free + low-sugar high-fiber" and "Long Island Iced Tea flavor" [2] - New products in the sugar-free category, such as "Jasmine Longjing" and "Fresh Green Tea," performed exceptionally well [2] Sustainable Development - The company is committed to green transformation across its entire supply chain, achieving a 90% reduction in plastic through initiatives like the "Speedy Noodle Shop" series using paper bowls and bamboo forks [2] - The 380ml "Drink Boiled Water" product features an eco-friendly lightweight bottle design, reducing PET particles by approximately 420 tons annually [2] - The company set clear energy-saving goals, aiming for a 12% reduction in comprehensive energy consumption per 1 million yuan of revenue and an 18% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 compared to 2017 [2] - In May, the company was included in the S&P Global "Sustainability Yearbook (China Edition)" for the first time, ranking 48th among 396 peers globally [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to continuously refine and innovate its products in response to the growing consumer demand for health, sustainability, and high-quality offerings [2] - Strategies will focus on optimizing channel strategies, enhancing consumer trust in the brand, and increasing brand-consumer engagement [2]

Core Viewpoint - Master Kong, once a beloved national brand, is now facing challenges with stagnant revenue growth, as evidenced by its recent financial report for the first half of 2025, which shows a revenue decline of 2.7% year-on-year [1][10]. Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, Master Kong reported revenue of approximately 400.92 billion yuan, a decrease of over 11 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.5% [1]. Segment Analysis - The decline in revenue is attributed to falling sales across major product categories: - Instant noodle sales decreased by 2.5% to 134.65 billion yuan, with container noodles down 1.3%, high-priced bag noodles down 7.2%, and mid-priced bag noodles up 8% [2]. - Beverage revenue fell by 2.6% to 263.59 billion yuan, with tea drinks down 6.3%, water down 6.0%, and fruit juice down 13.0%, while carbonated drinks saw a growth of 6.3% [4]. Distribution Network Changes - Master Kong is reducing its distribution network, with the number of distributors decreasing by 3,409 to 63,806 and direct retailers down by 1,499 to 219,124 compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - This trend of declining distributors and direct retailers has been ongoing since 2021, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing less efficient channels [4]. Market Position and Competition - The company is facing structural challenges in the consumer market, as highlighted by an analyst who noted that despite a focus on cost-effectiveness, sales continue to decline due to reduced distribution channels [5]. - Master Kong's beverage segment is attempting to enhance product competitiveness through improvements in taste, packaging, and processes, resulting in a 2.5 percentage point increase in gross margin to 37.7% [5]. Pricing Strategy - There has been a noticeable increase in prices for some products, with reports of price hikes ranging from 11% to 20%, which may affect price-sensitive consumers and provide opportunities for competitors [6][10]. Industry Trends - The instant noodle market is experiencing significant challenges from emerging fast-food alternatives, such as spicy noodles and self-heating hot pots, necessitating a transformation within the industry [10]. - Master Kong is responding to market trends by launching new herbal drinks, but faces stiff competition from other players entering this emerging segment [10].

Core Viewpoint - Master Kong faces challenges with stagnant revenue growth, as its core businesses of instant noodles and beverages show declining trends in the first half of 2025, despite a net profit increase of 20.5% due to strategic adjustments and cost management [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Master Kong reported revenue of 40.092 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while net profit reached 2.271 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.5% [2][3]. - The company's gross profit for the same period was 13.815 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year, contributing to the net profit increase [4]. - Other net income rose significantly by 144% to 408 million yuan, primarily due to the sale of stakes in two subsidiaries [4]. Group 2: Business Segments - The beverage segment accounted for 65.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, surpassing the instant noodle segment, which contributed 33.6% [4][5]. - Instant noodle revenue has been declining, dropping from 29.51 billion yuan in 2020 to 28.414 billion yuan in 2024, with a further decline of 2.5% in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - The beverage business, particularly the unsweetened tea segment, has seen growth but is now facing increased competition, with beverage revenue declining by 2.6% in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The instant noodle industry is experiencing significant challenges from emerging fast-food alternatives, necessitating a transformation within the sector [4][5]. - The unsweetened tea market has become highly competitive, with Master Kong needing to innovate and develop new products to maintain its market position [6][7]. - The company is responding to consumer demand for healthier products by launching new herbal beverages, but faces competition from established players in this emerging market [6][7].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 40.092 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.27 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 20.5% in net profit [1] - Key development themes for the company include diversification, differentiation, and sustainability, with a focus on innovation and market coverage efficiency through a "supply chain + all-channel" strategy [1][4] - The company aims for long-term growth by enhancing brand connection with younger consumers, optimizing channel management, and integrating digital technologies to improve profit margins [1] Revenue Breakdown - The instant noodle segment generated a revenue of 13.465 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 0.7 percentage points to 27.8%, leading to a net profit increase of 11.9% to 0.95 billion yuan [2] - The beverage segment achieved a revenue of 26.359 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.5 percentage points to 37.7%, resulting in a net profit increase of 19.7% to 1.335 billion yuan [6][10] Product Innovation - The company has introduced a variety of new products, including the "Oriental Food Collection" and "Kang Shifu 1.5 times" to cater to diverse consumer preferences [2] - The beverage line has seen the launch of new products such as "Jasmine Longjing" and "Fresh Green Tea," which have quickly gained popularity among consumers [8][10] Channel Strategy - The company is expanding into new channels such as membership stores and community group buying, enhancing its "full-domain reach" capability [4] - Positive market feedback was received for new products launched in membership stores, with the "Chao Lu Beef Three Treasures Noodle" achieving sales exceeding 10 million yuan in its first month [4] Sustainability Efforts - The company is committed to sustainable practices, including reducing plastic use in packaging and implementing energy-efficient production processes [11][12] - The "Speedy Noodle Restaurant" series has achieved a 90% reduction in plastic through innovative packaging solutions [11] Market Position - The company has been recognized for its sustainable development efforts, ranking 48th among 396 peers in the S&P Global Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) [12] - The company is focused on meeting the growing consumer demand for health, green, and high-quality products in a complex economic environment [14]

Core Insights - The beverage industry is witnessing a shift back to sugary tea drinks as the market for sugar-free tea slows down and consumer preferences evolve towards sweeter options [1][4][10] Market Trends - The sugary tea market, valued at nearly 100 billion, is experiencing renewed interest with new and established brands entering the space [1][10] - Major players like Nongfu Spring and Yuanqi Forest are launching new products, indicating a competitive landscape in the sugary tea segment [6][11] Consumer Preferences - There is a growing demand among younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and post-2000s, for sweeter beverages, which is driving the resurgence of sugary tea [4][10] - Despite health concerns, the demand for sugary tea remains, suggesting that consumer preferences are shifting rather than disappearing [11] Competitive Landscape - The sugary tea market has traditionally been dominated by brands like Master Kong and Uni-President, which hold significant market shares [9][10] - Recent statistics show that the market concentration has slightly decreased, indicating potential opportunities for new entrants [11] Product Innovation - Companies are focusing on product differentiation, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage combining tea with juice and Yuanqi Forest emphasizing real tea and reduced sugar [11][16] - Innovations in flavors and product types are being introduced to attract consumers, although many remain in niche markets [16] Market Dynamics - The sugary tea segment is characterized by a long-standing presence of products like iced black tea, which has been a staple since the 1990s [7][14] - The market is also seeing a shift towards lower-tier cities, where there is a higher acceptance of sugary beverages [16][17]

Core Insights - The tea beverage market is witnessing a resurgence in sugary tea products as the market for sugar-free tea slows down and consumer preferences shift towards sweeter options [1][3][12] Market Trends - The sugary tea market, previously overshadowed by the rapid rise of sugar-free tea, is now experiencing renewed interest with major brands re-entering the segment [4][5] - The sugary tea market is valued at nearly 100 billion, with significant competition emerging as brands like Nongfu Spring and Yuanqi Forest launch new products [5][11] Consumer Preferences - A new generation of consumers, particularly Gen Z and younger demographics, is increasingly seeking sweeter beverage options, indicating a shift in taste preferences [3][15] - Despite health concerns, the demand for sugary tea remains, suggesting that the market has room for growth and innovation [15][20] Competitive Landscape - Major players in the sugary tea market include Master Kong and Uni-President, which dominate the market share, with Master Kong projected to generate 21.7 billion in revenue from tea beverages in 2024 [10][16] - The market concentration has slightly decreased, with the top three companies' market share dropping from 73.38% to 72.67% between 2023 and 2024, indicating potential opportunities for new entrants [15] Product Innovation - Brands are focusing on product differentiation to revitalize the sugary tea segment, with innovations such as low-sugar options and unique flavor combinations [16][18] - The introduction of new product lines, such as carbonated sugary tea, reflects an effort to attract consumers looking for novel beverage experiences [16][18] Market Dynamics - The sugary tea market is expected to grow, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumer acceptance of sweetened beverages is higher [20] - The competitive landscape is evolving as brands adapt to changing consumer preferences and seek to capture market share through innovative offerings and strategic marketing [15][20]