热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 焦炭方面：震荡 作者： 邢亚文 市场分析 截止上周五收盘，焦炭2605合约收于1683元/吨，焦煤2605合约收于1130.5元/吨。 供给方面：本周Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为72.20%，增0.34%；焦炭日均产量63.14万 吨，增0.3万吨； 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.53%，环比上周增加0.53个百分点，同比去年增加1.55 个百分点 ；高炉炼铁产能利用率85.69%，环比上周增加0.22个百分点 ，同比去年减少0.07个百分点； 钢厂盈利率39.39%，环比上周维持不变，同比去年减少12.13个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.58万吨，环 比上周增加0.60万吨，同比去年增加0.14万吨。 库存方面：根据Mysteel调研数据，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存为693.74万吨，环比增加15.55万吨。247家 钢厂焦煤库存为835.32万吨，环比增加15.54万吨。独立焦企全样本焦煤总库存为1291.87万吨，环比增 加57.08万吨。 综合来看：焦炭方面，因需求改善与供应受限 ...

期货研究报告|黑色专题 2026-02-06 双焦 2601 合约交割总结报告 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 xingyawen@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03054449 投资咨询号：Z0016137 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguolaing@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 邢亚文 焦煤 2601 合约交割规模创出历史最高水平，究其原因在于一方面是临近交割月盘面大 幅下跌，给予卖方较好的参与机会；另一方面是现货销售不佳，导致卖方参与交割意 愿较强。焦炭 2601 合约交割规模有限，主要原因在于月差结构有利于卖方转抛远月， 导致实际交割量相对不足。考虑到后期基本面和宏观预期并未出现明显转弱趋势，因 此焦煤和焦炭远月交割风险相对有限。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 本次焦煤交割量达到 41.4 万吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for coking coal and coke is experiencing fluctuations primarily due to capacity reduction policies, with prices showing a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2][7]. Supply Analysis - The average daily production of coke from independent coking enterprises is 635,700 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.69%, up by 0.97% from the previous week [2][7]. - The average daily production of premium coal from 523 sample mines is 734,300 tons, which is an increase of 44,200 tons week-on-week [2][7]. Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points week-on-week and up 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 86.04%, which is an increase of 0.78 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The profit margin for steel mills is 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points week-on-week and down 12.99 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The average daily pig iron output is 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons week-on-week and up 51,300 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Inventory Analysis - The coke inventory in 247 steel mills is 6.4573 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills is 7.9773 million tons, a decrease of 55,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The total coking coal inventory for independent coking enterprises is 10.7168 million tons, an increase of 191,800 tons week-on-week [8]. Supply and Demand Logic - The supply-demand contradiction for coke is currently limited, with a slight improvement in demand due to the resumption of production in steel mills, although speculative demand remains insufficient [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve further due to the resumption of production and inventory replenishment in steel mills before the Spring Festival, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices [8]. - Recent policies from Yulin City and Inner Mongolia regarding coal production capacity reduction, along with Indonesia's decrease in annual coal production, have raised concerns about future coal supply contraction, providing support for coking coal prices [8]. Strategy - The outlook for coking coal is expected to remain oscillatory [9]. - The outlook for coke is also anticipated to remain oscillatory [9].

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market has experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors including supply concerns and low valuation compared to other commodities [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - All black commodities saw substantial gains, with coking coal and coke contracts both rising by 7.98%, soda ash by 7.53%, glass by 6.1%, and iron ore by 4.09% [8]. - The recent surge in black commodities is attributed to a combination of supply adjustments and market sentiment [9]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Yulin City plans to remove 26 coal mines from the supply guarantee list, reducing production capacity by 19 million tons. This raises concerns about a potential decline in coal supply as the Energy Bureau aims to classify unapproved mines as illegal by June 2025 [8]. - Since 2021, approximately 500 million tons of new coal production capacity has been added, with a significant portion lacking proper documentation, which could lead to a substantial reduction in coal supply if regulations are strictly enforced [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in black commodities follow a period where other commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals, have been rising, leading to a perceived undervaluation of black commodities [8]. - The influx of traders into the market due to rising prices has created short-term resource tightness, further driving up spot prices and supporting continued price increases in futures [8][9].