Core Viewpoint - The market for coke and coking coal is experiencing a shift towards a tight balance due to improved demand and limited supply, with a focus on the recovery of steel production and environmental policy enforcement in the coming period [3][8]. Supply Analysis - As of last week, the coke 2605 contract closed at 1683 CNY/ton, and the coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1130.5 CNY/ton [7]. - The capacity utilization rate for independent coke enterprises is reported at 72.20%, an increase of 0.34% [7]. - The average daily production of coke is 631,400 tons, which is an increase of 3,000 tons [7]. Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 79.53%, up by 0.53 percentage points week-on-week and up by 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 85.69%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - The profit margin for steel mills stands at 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week but down by 12.13 percentage points compared to last year [7]. - The average daily pig iron production is 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and an increase of 1,400 tons year-on-year [7]. Inventory Analysis - The coke inventory for the surveyed steel mills is 6.9374 million tons, an increase of 155,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The coking coal inventory for the same steel mills is 8.3532 million tons, also up by 155,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The total coking coal inventory for independent coke enterprises is 12.9187 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 570,800 tons [7]. Market Strategy - The market outlook for coking coal is expected to be volatile, while the coke market is also anticipated to experience fluctuations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal 2601 contract delivery volume reached 414,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly concentrated in warehouses in Jingtang Port and Caofeidian, as well as factories in Shanxi and Hebei. The sellers were mainly spot-futures traders and coal washing plants, and the delivery resources were mainly Mongolian coal. The delivery settlement prices were scattered, with both premium and discount delivery, and most enterprises made profits. The large amount of delivery resources did not put downward pressure on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is relatively limited [5]. - The coke 2601 contract delivery volume was only 40,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly concentrated in Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Caofeidian, Tianjin Port, and factories in Hebei. The sellers were mainly traders and coking plants, and the delivery resources were mainly wet-quenched coke. The delivery settlement prices were relatively concentrated, mostly with discount delivery, and the delivery profit narrowed significantly after entering the delivery month. The final delivery volume was limited, having no negative impact on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is basically controllable [5]. - The strategy is to operate in a range and pay attention to the price correction risk after the "Two Sessions" [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Jiao Coal 2601 Contract Delivery Summary 3.1.1 Jiao Coal Delivery Quantity and Region - The delivery volume of coking coal reached 414,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in warehouses in Jingtang Port and Caofeidian, and factories in Shanxi and Hebei. The concentration was more dispersed compared to previous deliveries [15]. 3.1.2 Jiao Coal Delivery Characteristics and Price - Sellers were mainly spot-futures traders and coal washing plants, with rolling delivery dominant. Delivery resources were mainly Mongolian coal, and most resources got high premium rewards. Buyers were mainly spot-futures traders, and their willingness to take delivery was relatively strong. The delivery settlement prices were scattered, with an average of 1,105.7 yuan/ton, a median of 1,103.5 yuan/ton, and a high-low price difference of 108 yuan/ton. The delivery profit was relatively sufficient [16][17]. 3.1.3 Jiao Coal Delivery Process and Profit - In October, as the market price rose, the basis weakened, and some spot-futures traders hedged on the market. After the price further fell, some took profits. In early December, the price dropped again, and spot-futures traders re-entered the market. Near the delivery month, the basis converged, and there were premium delivery opportunities, resulting in a large delivery volume [20]. 3.1.4 Jiao Coal Delivery Summary and Outlook - The large amount of delivery resources did not put downward pressure on the market. As the reality and expectations improved, the delivery cost of inferior warehouse receipts increased, and the delivery cost-performance was insufficient. Spot-futures traders sold the received goods in the far - month market, having limited impact on the spot market. The 2605 contract still follows the old rules, but considering the improved supply - demand and better market expectations compared to last year, the delivery risk is relatively limited [23]. 3.2 Coke 2601 Contract Delivery Summary 3.2.1 Coke Delivery Quantity and Region - The coke delivery volume was only 40,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Caofeidian, Tianjin Port, and factories in Hebei, and the delivery concentration was acceptable [26]. 3.2.2 Coke Delivery Characteristics and Price - Sellers were mainly traders and coking plants, with rolling delivery dominant. Delivery resources were mainly wet - quenched coke. Buyers were mainly traders, and their willingness to take delivery was strong due to the increasing discount of the market price in the delivery month. The delivery settlement prices were relatively concentrated, with an average of 1,454.3 yuan/ton, a median of 1,445.5 yuan/ton, and a high - low price difference of 62 yuan/ton, mostly with discount delivery. The delivery profit was high before the delivery month but narrowed significantly after entering the delivery month [27]. 3.2.3 Coke Delivery Process and Profit - In mid - September, as the basis weakened, many spot - futures traders participated in hedging. By mid - October, the basis strengthened again, and the expectation of spot price increase was strong, so some traders exited. Near the delivery month, as the market price discount increased and the spot price reduction was coming to an end, the willingness of short - hedging decreased, and some traders shifted their positions to the far - month market, resulting in a relatively small delivery volume [30]. 3.2.4 Coke Delivery Summary and Outlook - During the delivery period, the macro - expectation and the spot market showed a positive trend, and there were obvious monthly spread arbitrage opportunities for short - sellers. The limited delivery volume had no negative impact on the market, and the pressure for spot price increase in the later period was small. In the long - term, wet - quenched coke has a relatively stronger delivery cost - performance advantage. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coke is insufficient, and the deliverable resources are limited. The delivery risk of the 2605 contract is basically controllable [35]. 3.3 Summary - The coking coal delivery volume was 414,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in Jingtang Port, Caofeidian, and factories in Shanxi and Hebei. Sellers were mainly spot - futures traders and coal washing plants, and the delivery resources were mainly Mongolian coal. The delivery settlement prices were scattered, and most enterprises made profits. The large delivery volume did not put downward pressure on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is relatively limited [36]. - The coke delivery volume was 40,000 tons, with delivery areas mainly in Qingdao Port, Rizhao Port, Caofeidian, Tianjin Port, and factories in Hebei. Sellers were mainly traders and coking plants, and the delivery resources were mainly wet - quenched coke. The delivery settlement prices were relatively concentrated, mostly with discount delivery, and the delivery profit narrowed significantly after entering the delivery month. The limited delivery volume had no negative impact on the market, and the 2605 contract delivery risk is basically controllable [36].

Core Viewpoint - The market for coking coal and coke is experiencing fluctuations primarily due to capacity reduction policies, with prices showing a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2][7]. Supply Analysis - The average daily production of coke from independent coking enterprises is 635,700 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.69%, up by 0.97% from the previous week [2][7]. - The average daily production of premium coal from 523 sample mines is 734,300 tons, which is an increase of 44,200 tons week-on-week [2][7]. Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills is 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points week-on-week and up 2.13 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 86.04%, which is an increase of 0.78 percentage points week-on-week and up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The profit margin for steel mills is 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points week-on-week and down 12.99 percentage points year-on-year [2][7]. - The average daily pig iron output is 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons week-on-week and up 51,300 tons year-on-year [2][7]. Inventory Analysis - The coke inventory in 247 steel mills is 6.4573 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills is 7.9773 million tons, a decrease of 55,400 tons week-on-week [8]. - The total coking coal inventory for independent coking enterprises is 10.7168 million tons, an increase of 191,800 tons week-on-week [8]. Supply and Demand Logic - The supply-demand contradiction for coke is currently limited, with a slight improvement in demand due to the resumption of production in steel mills, although speculative demand remains insufficient [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve further due to the resumption of production and inventory replenishment in steel mills before the Spring Festival, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices [8]. - Recent policies from Yulin City and Inner Mongolia regarding coal production capacity reduction, along with Indonesia's decrease in annual coal production, have raised concerns about future coal supply contraction, providing support for coking coal prices [8]. Strategy - The outlook for coking coal is expected to remain oscillatory [9]. - The outlook for coke is also anticipated to remain oscillatory [9].

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market has experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors including supply concerns and low valuation compared to other commodities [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - All black commodities saw substantial gains, with coking coal and coke contracts both rising by 7.98%, soda ash by 7.53%, glass by 6.1%, and iron ore by 4.09% [8]. - The recent surge in black commodities is attributed to a combination of supply adjustments and market sentiment [9]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Yulin City plans to remove 26 coal mines from the supply guarantee list, reducing production capacity by 19 million tons. This raises concerns about a potential decline in coal supply as the Energy Bureau aims to classify unapproved mines as illegal by June 2025 [8]. - Since 2021, approximately 500 million tons of new coal production capacity has been added, with a significant portion lacking proper documentation, which could lead to a substantial reduction in coal supply if regulations are strictly enforced [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in black commodities follow a period where other commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals, have been rising, leading to a perceived undervaluation of black commodities [8]. - The influx of traders into the market due to rising prices has created short-term resource tightness, further driving up spot prices and supporting continued price increases in futures [8][9].