Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a cooling market sentiment, as indicated by the recent adjustments in financing margin ratios and the focus on performance indicators as the annual report forecast period approaches [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has shown a high-level oscillation pattern, with previous leading sectors experiencing increased volatility [1][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for timely counter-cyclical adjustments to prevent significant market fluctuations [1][8]. - The market is expected to shift focus from narrative-driven trends to performance-based evaluations as annual report forecasts are released [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Citic Securities suggests constructing portfolios based on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing weight estimation," focusing on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy [9]. - Investors are advised to increase allocations in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) and consider high-growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment to enhance returns [9]. - Guotai Junan highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with high growth or recovery potential, particularly in technology and industries benefiting from price increases due to policy changes [15][16]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Multiple securities firms, including GF Securities and Industrial Securities, predict that the market will see opportunities from late January to mid-March, coinciding with the annual report forecast disclosures [10][11]. - The spring market rally is expected to continue, with structural adjustments rather than systemic risks being the primary concern [11][12]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of "spring excitement," focusing on companies with solid fundamentals and performance exceeding expectations [12][13]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI applications, is expected to shift from broad-based gains to a more focused performance on companies with strong fundamentals [16]. - The rise in commodity prices is seen as a significant trend, driven by global supply chain changes and resource revaluation, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and new energy materials being highlighted [16][15].

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, leading to a concentration of hot sectors and thematic investments, which has resulted in structural overheating in some areas [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The recent "opening red" market rally is characterized by significant liquidity and heightened risk preferences, with a clear focus on thematic investments [1][2] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios aims to prevent systemic risks and guide the market back to rationality, while broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net outflows, indicating a market entering a phase of consolidation [1][2] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current spring market rally is still in its early stages, with potential for new highs following a short-term correction [1][2] Group 2: Sector Focus - Analysts emphasize that the upcoming earnings reporting period will shift focus back to performance indicators, particularly in sectors expected to show high growth or improved conditions, such as electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - The adjustment in financing margins is not expected to impact the overall upward trend of the market but will affect sector dynamics, with increased competition among thematic sectors [2][3] - The focus on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend and price increases includes chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a particular emphasis on high-growth areas in the upcoming earnings forecasts [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on performance fundamentals as the primary driver of investment decisions, while cautioning against irrational speculative activities [2][3] - The anticipated earnings reports in late January are expected to catalyze significant market movements, particularly in sectors with strong performance indicators [2][3] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations, driven by fundamental improvements and policy support [2][3]

Core Conclusion - The market's upward momentum has slowed down this week, with active trading funds causing turnover rates to spike, surpassing the high point of August 2025. The spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation after excessive short-term trading is normal. Although there are indications of a short-term cooling in policy, the overall stance remains accommodative [1][5]. Market Trends - The market style is shifting, with thematic sentiment cooling and strong sectors returning to the prosperity line. In the liquidity bull market phase, the profit effect is spreading, and price increases are considered a key prosperity line. The current narrative around commodities is driven by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring, leading to a re-pricing of key resource products [1][5]. Commodity Price Dynamics - Long-term, commodity prices tend to move in tandem, even during periods of economic downturn, as seen from 1970 to 1980 when prices continued to rise until 1980. There is optimism for a new super cycle in commodity prices. In the short to medium term, the focus should be on supply constraints, with potential expansion from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Beneficiaries on both supply and demand sides include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper, aluminum, strategic metals, rare earths), new energy (new energy materials, power batteries), chemical products (phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals), and storage chips [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Factors - The current commodity price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security. On the supply side, the control of strategic resources is intensifying amid great power competition, leading to increased scarcity in key mineral sectors. On the demand side, real needs driven by the AI technology revolution, energy transition, and military spending are boosting demand for strategic metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. A weak dollar cycle may support the elevation of commodity price levels [2][6]. Price Movement Patterns - Historically, during a commodity price increase, there are price rotations among commodities due to their interdependencies and relationships within the supply chain. For instance, during the demand expansion-driven price increase from 2009 to 2011, copper led the rise, followed by crude oil and soybeans. In the supply constraint-driven price increase from 2016 to 2018, oil and black commodities rose first, with chemical products showing sustained price increases [2][6]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices. The focus for the current price increase should be on supply constraint elasticity, with expansion likely moving from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Key supply constraints include production capacity limits for critical resources like copper and rare earths, capacity restrictions driven by "anti-involution" policies, and supply shortages driven by high AI demand. Demand opportunities are expected to arise from the transition between new and old driving forces in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AIDC [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market has experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors including supply concerns and low valuation compared to other commodities [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - All black commodities saw substantial gains, with coking coal and coke contracts both rising by 7.98%, soda ash by 7.53%, glass by 6.1%, and iron ore by 4.09% [8]. - The recent surge in black commodities is attributed to a combination of supply adjustments and market sentiment [9]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Yulin City plans to remove 26 coal mines from the supply guarantee list, reducing production capacity by 19 million tons. This raises concerns about a potential decline in coal supply as the Energy Bureau aims to classify unapproved mines as illegal by June 2025 [8]. - Since 2021, approximately 500 million tons of new coal production capacity has been added, with a significant portion lacking proper documentation, which could lead to a substantial reduction in coal supply if regulations are strictly enforced [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in black commodities follow a period where other commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals, have been rising, leading to a perceived undervaluation of black commodities [8]. - The influx of traders into the market due to rising prices has created short-term resource tightness, further driving up spot prices and supporting continued price increases in futures [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the commodity market will enter a period of high volatility and deep differentiation driven by macro - logic. Each commodity sector faces unique risks, including macro - policy changes, geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties [167]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, but in 2026, there are risks of short - term corrections due to factors such as "twin - peak inflation", delayed Fed rate cuts, and high risk premiums [16]. - Non - ferrous metals may see their price centers rise, but they are exposed to risks from macro - policy fluctuations, trade protectionism, and supply - demand mismatches [46]. - Black commodities will continue to face challenges of weak demand and oversupply, with the risk of a negative feedback loop [79]. - Energy and chemical products will struggle to re - balance due to long - term geopolitical risks, overcapacity, and weak demand [108]. - Agricultural products are in an era of increased production but face uncertainties in demand, policy interventions, and inventory and supply chain risks [138]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks in Safe - Haven Assets - **"Twin - Peak Inflation" and Monetary Policy**: Trump's tariff policies may lead to supply - side "twin - peak inflation". If inflation rebounds, the Fed may adopt a "Higher for Longer" policy, suppressing precious metal prices [17]. - **Fiscal Policy and Asset Rotation**: Fiscal expansion may trigger economic recovery expectations, leading to asset rotation from safe - haven assets to risk assets. The short - term economic boost from fiscal policies may reduce the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Central Bank Buying and Investment Demand**: Central banks buy gold to hedge against dollar depreciation, but some may slow down or sell gold due to high prices. The shift from central bank buying to Western ETF investment funds increases market vulnerability [33][35]. - **International Political Risks**: Geopolitical risks are already priced into gold. If tensions ease, the risk premium may disappear. Trade frictions may also cause price fluctuations [41]. - **High Beta Trap in Silver**: Silver's price is more volatile than gold. If the manufacturing recovery is weak or gold prices fall, silver prices may decline more sharply [42]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Policy and Supply - Demand Structural Contradictions - **Macro - Environment and Price Volatility**: Uncertainty in Fed monetary policy and dollar index fluctuations can directly impact non - ferrous metal prices. US trade protectionism may reshape trade flows and cause regional supply - demand imbalances [47][48]. - **Supply - Side Risks**: Supply shortages in copper mines, structural problems in aluminum mines, and slow capacity clearance in new energy metals are major risks. Resource nationalism also increases costs and supply chain risks [52][54][56]. - **Demand - Side Challenges**: Traditional demand from real estate and home appliances is weak, while emerging demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI may not meet expectations, leading to insufficient demand [60][64][70]. - **Inventory and Capital Risks**: Inventory mismatches and financial risks in the capital market can amplify price fluctuations. Low - inventory environments may lead to forced - liquidation events, and large - scale capital inflows and outflows can cause price bubbles and sharp corrections [74][76]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Pains in the Post - Real Estate Era - **Demand - Side Risks**: The real estate market remains a major drag on demand, while manufacturing demand may slow down, and the sustainability of steel exports is uncertain. Over - interpretation of demand resilience may lead to supply - demand imbalances [80][83][85]. - **Supply - Side Risks**: Global iron ore supply will shift from tight balance to oversupply in 2026. Double - coking coal and alloys also face supply - side pressures [89][96]. - **Policy and Macro - Level Risks**: The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy is uncertain, and fiscal and monetary policies may have a diminishing marginal effect. International rules such as CBAM and US trade policies also pose risks [98][99][101]. - **Profit Distribution and Negative Feedback**: The profit distribution in the industrial chain is distorted, and a negative feedback loop may occur, leading to a systemic price collapse [102][105]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products: Difficult Re - balance in a Geopolitically Fragmented World - **Geopolitical Risks**: Crude oil geopolitical risks are long - term and fragmented, leading to trade flow restructuring and cost increases. OPEC+ faces challenges in maintaining production cuts, and non - OPEC+ countries have limited capacity for production increases [109][113]. - **Demand - Side Constraints**: The logic of oil consumption has changed, and global economic factors such as trade frictions and high - interest rates limit energy demand. Shipping and logistics risks also affect energy costs and trade flows [119][125]. - **Inventory Risks**: Crude oil and chemical product inventories are expected to increase, suppressing prices and weakening the impact of geopolitical premiums. High - inventory situations in chemicals will become normal [132][135]. - **Policy Execution Risks**: The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy is uncertain, and without effective measures, capacity clearance in the chemical industry will be difficult [137]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Increased Production Meets Uncertain Demand - **Supply - Side Risks**: Major agricultural products are expected to increase in production, leading to a global supply surplus. The soybean market is highly dependent on Brazil, and any local disruptions may have a global impact [138][139]. - **Demand - Side Risks**: Food, feed, and industrial demand for agricultural products are all weakening. Policy uncertainties in bio - fuels also affect industrial demand [143][144]. - **Policy Intervention Risks**: Sino - US trade relations and bio - diesel policies are major variables that can significantly impact the agricultural market [151][156]. - **Inventory and Supply Chain Risks**: High inventories of US corn and soybeans suppress prices, and supply chain risks from logistics and geopolitical factors can cause price fluctuations [164]. 3.6 Summary and Response - In 2026, commodity risk management should be more forward - looking, structural, and flexible, upgrading from price risk management to volatility management and risk - return structure optimization [167]. - For precious metals, maintain long - term bullish positions but use dynamic stop - profit mechanisms and options to manage risks [168]. - For non - ferrous metals, refine futures hedging and use options to protect against extreme risks [169]. - For black commodities, shift from hedging absolute prices to managing profits and use options to manage costs and risks [170]. - For energy and chemical products, use futures to manage geopolitical risks and options to manage volatility. Take advantage of price rebounds to lock in processing fees [171]. - For agricultural products, use futures for selling hedging and options to manage price fluctuations and input costs [172].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the development trends of multiple industries, including the attention to the development of the humanoid robot field, the determination of the Hainan Free Trade Port's customs - closure time, and the price and operation status of various industries in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry; Morgan Stanley predicted that humanoid robots will be widely adopted in China in the second half of this year and China will have an advantage in this field in the future [1]. - **Service Industry**: The customs - closure time of the Hainan Free Trade Port is set for December 18, 2025, demonstrating China's determination to expand high - level opening - up [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Black commodity prices are rising collectively, and egg prices have rebounded by over 10% [2]. - **Mid - stream**: In the chemical industry, the operating rates of urea and polyester are stable, while the PX operating rate is declining [3]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have declined; in the service industry, the recent movie box office is at a low level [3]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spread data of various industries as of July 23, including industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, mining, and chemical industry, and shows their trends compared with different time points in the past [47]. D. Key Industry Price Indicator Tracking - The report shows the price indicators of various industries on July 23, including agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemical industry, and real estate, and provides their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].