1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the development trends of multiple industries, including the attention to the development of the humanoid robot field, the determination of the Hainan Free Trade Port's customs - closure time, and the price and operation status of various industries in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry; Morgan Stanley predicted that humanoid robots will be widely adopted in China in the second half of this year and China will have an advantage in this field in the future [1]. - **Service Industry**: The customs - closure time of the Hainan Free Trade Port is set for December 18, 2025, demonstrating China's determination to expand high - level opening - up [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Black commodity prices are rising collectively, and egg prices have rebounded by over 10% [2]. - **Mid - stream**: In the chemical industry, the operating rates of urea and polyester are stable, while the PX operating rate is declining [3]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have declined; in the service industry, the recent movie box office is at a low level [3]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The report provides the credit spread data of various industries as of July 23, including industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, mining, and chemical industry, and shows their trends compared with different time points in the past [47]. D. Key Industry Price Indicator Tracking - The report shows the price indicators of various industries on July 23, including agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemical industry, and real estate, and provides their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].