美国电力需求受数据中心规模扩张及电气化进程推进等因素影响，预计2025年全年同比增长2.3%， 2026年增长约2.2%。 供应革命：可再生能源重构电力版图 全球电力供应端正经历"历史性替代"，可再生能源的主导地位愈发重要。 今年全球可再生能源发电量或将首超煤炭发电 ——国际能源署报告预示全球能源转折点 国际能源署（IEA）近期发布的《2025电力年中更新报告》（Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025）指出， 全球电力需求正以远超能源总需求增速的态势强劲上扬，预计2026年全球用电量将突破29000太瓦时， 创下历史新高。 报告预测，可再生能源势头迅猛，最快将于明年超过煤炭发电，成为全球最大电力来源。然而，在这看 似蓬勃发展的背后，也伴随着区域排放差距拉大、电价分化加剧和电网稳定性挑战凸显等多重考验，亟 须各方携手应对，探寻可持续发展新路径。 需求强劲：新兴经济体成增长引擎 报告预测，2025年全球电力需求预计增长3.3%，2026年将达3.7%，是同期能源总需求增速的两倍多。 这一增长速度虽较2024年的4.4%有所放缓，但仍远高于2015至2023年2.6%的平均水平。总体而言， ...

Core Insights - Indonesia's new power plan includes the development of 42.6 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy power plants, 10.3 GW of natural gas power plants, and 6.3 GW of coal power plants [1] Summary by Category - **Renewable Energy**: The plan emphasizes a significant investment in renewable energy, totaling 42.6 GW [1] - **Natural Gas**: The inclusion of 10.3 GW of natural gas power plants indicates a continued reliance on fossil fuels alongside renewable sources [1] - **Coal Power**: The plan also allocates 6.3 GW for coal power plants, reflecting a mixed energy strategy [1]

亚洲正处于能源转型的关键时刻。由于该区域对化石燃料的依赖程度很高，因此面临着明显的气候 风险，并且承担着碳减排的重要责任。然而，由于确保能源安全而发生的政策转向，以及人工智能发展 和数据中心带来的能源需求增长，这一进程会变得更加具有挑战性。平衡绿色转型和能源稳定是整个亚 洲地区的一项共同优先事项，但实际上每个经济体都面临着独特的挑战。 尽管中国在碳排放总量上仍居世界前列，但近年来，中国的"绿色奇迹"备受赞誉。在激励措施和私 营部门参与的支持下，中国已成为全球最大的可再生能源设备供应商和最大的终端用户市场。2024年， 太阳能和风能占其新增装机容量的80%以上，占其总累计装机容量的42%。这是历史上首次可再生能源 的总装机量如此接近化石燃料的总装机量。此外，2024年中国新的核能机组审批规模创下了历史新高。 中国的目标是到2030年，通过利用其已建立的核供应链，成为全球最大的核电市场。 根据巴克莱中国经济学团队的研究，2023年，可再生能源、电动汽车、氢能和核能等绿色行业对中 国GDP的贡献率达到了9%。随着绿色经济的规模不断扩大，投资者越来越关注中国何时实现碳达峰， 以及何时会像某些发达经济体一样，设定逐步淘 ...

Core Insights - In 2024, China's wind and solar power generation accounted for over half of the global increase in clean energy, significantly contributing to the global energy transition [4][12] - Clean energy sources met 81% of the new electricity demand in China, while coal power only satisfied 18% [5][6] Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - China's electricity demand grew by 6.6% in 2024, adding 623 terawatt-hours (TWh), slightly lower than the 6.9% increase in 2023 [5] - The increase in electricity demand was driven by high summer temperatures and a rebound in industrial electricity use following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions [5] - Clean energy sources, including wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, and biomass, collectively met 81% of the new electricity demand, with wind and solar alone accounting for more than half [5][6] Group 2: Growth in Renewable Energy - Solar power generation in China surged by 250 TWh in 2024, marking a 43% increase compared to 2023, which had already seen a 37% growth [6] - Wind power generation increased by 106 TWh, representing 58% of the global total increase in wind energy [6][12] - The total clean energy contribution in China's electricity structure reached 38% in 2024, slightly below the global average of 41% [12] Group 3: Coal Power and Carbon Emissions - Despite a record increase in coal power generation by 110 TWh (1.9% growth), this was significantly lower than the previous year's increase of 341 TWh (6.3% growth) [6][9] - Coal power still accounted for 58% of China's electricity generation in 2024, although its share has decreased from 70% in 2015 [9][12] - China's electricity sector carbon emissions rose by 2.2% to 564 million tons of CO2 in 2024, representing 39% of global emissions [9][14] Group 4: Comparative Metrics - China's per capita electricity demand was 7.1 megawatt-hours (MWh), nearly double the global average of 3.8 MWh and five times that of India [14] - The carbon intensity of electricity generation in China was 560 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour, down 4.1% from 2023 but still significantly higher than the global average of 473 grams [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $2.64 billion, down from $2.8 billion in 2023, primarily due to extreme weather events in South America and asset sales [32][34] - Adjusted EPS for 2024 was $2.14, an increase from $1.76 in 2023, driven by tax benefits from new renewable projects and a lower adjusted tax rate [33][34] - Parent free cash flow was $1.1 billion, at the midpoint of guidance, reflecting a more than 10% increase from the prior year [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renewables SBU experienced lower adjusted EBITDA due to historic weather volatility in South America, with significant contributions from new projects in the U.S. partially offsetting losses [34][36] - The Utilities SBU saw higher adjusted PTC driven by rate-based investments and improved weather, but was partially offset by higher interest expenses [36] - The Energy Infrastructure SBU's lower adjusted EBITDA was attributed to outages and lower margins, while the New Energy Technologies SBU showed improved results [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. added 49 gigawatts of new renewable capacity in 2024, with renewables and battery storage representing 92% of those additions [15] - In 2025, the U.S. is expected to add 63 gigawatts, with 93% being solar, storage, and wind [16] - The company noted that renewables have the shortest time to power and greater price certainty, which is critical for meeting the growing demand for electricity [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on reducing investments in renewables to prioritize high-risk adjusted return projects and improve organizational efficiency [6][10] - The 2025 financial outlook indicates a significant growth in renewables EBITDA, with expectations of over 60% year-over-year growth [12][41] - The company is committed to maintaining its investment-grade credit rating and dividend while streamlining operations and reducing costs [26][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with stock price performance but emphasized the resilience of the business model against regulatory changes [5][6] - The company is confident in achieving long-term growth targets of 5% to 7% adjusted EBITDA growth through 2027, supported by a strong backlog of projects [26][57] - Management highlighted the importance of renewables in meeting the increasing demand for electricity, particularly from technology customers [6][17] Other Important Information - The company signed 4.4 gigawatts of new power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2024, aiming for 14 to 17 gigawatts by 2025 [7] - The sale of Brazilian assets was noted as a significant de-risking move, reducing exposure to various market risks [14] - The company plans to maintain a focus on larger, more profitable projects while reducing overall capital expenditures [27][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: On cost savings and their sources - The company confirmed that the $150 million in cost savings ramping to $300 million is ongoing and not one-time, with confidence in achieving these reductions [60][61] Question: On renewable CapEx and growth strategy - Management clarified that while CapEx is being cut, the focus remains on executing a strong pipeline, with a shift towards fewer but larger projects [71][73] Question: On asset sales and coal contributions - The company indicated that asset sales will include some coal exits and technology monetization, but the reliance on these sales has decreased [76][77] Question: On cost reduction specifics - The cost reduction program includes resizing the development team, cutting early-stage project costs, and a 10% workforce reduction [81][82] Question: On credit metrics and future outlook - Management discussed expectations for improving credit metrics, with a focus on increasing cash flow and EBITDA through operational efficiencies [86][95]