晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 14 日 核心结论 分析师 【宏观】7 月金融数据点评：贷款增速继续下滑，财政贴息鼓励贷款 7 月新增贷款出现负增长。社融增速继续回升，货币增速继续回升，主要由 政府融资推动。财政存款保持较快增长，财政状况明显好于去年。财政贴息 进一步降低实体经济部门融资成本，通过财政和金融的联动，支持促消费、 扩内需，也有利于贷款增速企稳回升。 【食品饮料】贵州茅台（600519.SH）2025 年半年报点评：核心产品稳健 增长，经营韧性再次凸显 【食品饮料】燕京啤酒（000729.SH）2025 年半年报点评：大单品形成势 能 渠道深挖开拓 预计公司 25-27 年实现收入分别为 155.26/163.89/172.60 亿元，对应归母 净利润分别为 14.36/17.94/20.85 亿元，对应 EPS 分别为 0.51/0.64/0.74 元。 公司大单品形成产品势能，渠道深挖开拓，维持公司"买入"评级。 【基础化工】卫星化学（002648.SZ）2025 年半年报点评：25H1 归母净利 同比增长，高端化布局加速落地 公 司 项 目 投 放 节 奏 调 整 ， 我 们 ...

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The OCIO (Outsourced Chief Investment Officer) model has seen a growth of over 2.6 times in management scale over the past decade, with the top five institutions holding 67% market share [7][8] - The market for OCIO services is diversifying, with non-pension clients like endowment funds and private wealth increasing their share, projected to grow at a CAGR of over 10% in the next five years [7][8] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials - The new Tibet-Xinjiang railway is expected to accelerate construction, with a total investment estimated between 300 billion to 400 billion yuan and a construction period of 7-8 years [10] - The cement prices have stabilized, with a recent increase of 20 yuan/ton in Henan, while the overall demand remains low due to adverse weather conditions [11] - The building materials sector is expected to benefit from major projects like the Tibet-Xinjiang railway and the Yaxi Water Conservancy Project, with recommendations to focus on companies like Conch Cement and Xiamen C&D [13] Group 3: Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.75% increase, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.37 percentage points, with notable gains in companies like *ST Xifa and Rock Group [15] - The liquor industry is under pressure, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye actively launching new products to meet diverse consumer demands [15][16] - The beer segment is entering a peak season, with recommendations for companies like Yanjing Beer and China Resources Snow Breweries [17] Group 4: Electric Equipment and New Energy - A meeting among major dry-process lithium battery separator manufacturers reached a consensus on "anti-involution," focusing on price discipline and capacity management [21][22] - The lithium battery and core materials sector is expected to see a rebound in profitability due to the implementation of anti-involution policies [21][22] Group 5: Chemical Industry - Wanhua Chemical reported a 11.1% increase in revenue for Q2 2025, with a focus on cost control leading to a slight decrease in net profit margin [24][25] - The polyurethane segment showed stable growth, with a projected increase in production capacity expected to enhance profitability [24][25] Group 6: Education - Action Education reported a revenue decline of 11.7% in H1 2025, but a narrowing of cash collection decline in Q2, attributed to AI-driven marketing strategies [26][28] - The company is focusing on expanding its business coverage through initiatives like the "Hundred Schools Plan," which has shown early positive results [26][28] Group 7: Beverage Industry - Yanjing Beer reported a 6.4% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by the strong performance of its flagship product, Yanjing U8 [29][30] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from product structure upgrades and internal reforms, with profit growth projected to remain robust [32][33]

| 最新收盘价（元） | 13.12 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）28.19 | / 25.10 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）370 | / 329 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 14.36 / 9.02 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.1% | | 市盈率 | 34.99 | | 第一大股东 | 北京燕京啤酒投资有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 燕京啤酒 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 燕京啤酒(000729) 25Q2 扣非净利润略超预期，改革红利持续 ...

2025 年 8 月 11 日 公司研究 扣非归母净利润超预期，改革红利持续释放 ——燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：13.12 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 28.19 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 369.79 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 8.69/14.25 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 53.54% | 股价相对走势 -10% 4% 17% 31% 44% 08/24 11/24 02/25 05/25 燕京啤酒 沪深300 上半年量价齐升，产品结构持续升级。 1）拆分量价来看：25H1 啤酒收入为 78.96 亿元，同比+6.9% ...

Summary of the Beer Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese beer industry has experienced stable sales from 2018 to 2024, with an average annual price increase of approximately 4% [1][2] - Major players like China Resources and Tsingtao have significantly raised winter prices, but sales are expected to face pressure in the first half of 2025 due to alcohol bans and poor restaurant performance [1][3] Key Company Insights Zhujiang Beer - Zhujiang Beer has increased its market share in Guangdong, benefiting from product structure optimization and marketing strategies [1][8] - The company aims to exceed 400,000 tons in sales for 2025, with a mid-term target of 700,000 tons [1][8] Yanjing Beer - Yanjing Beer reported a profit growth rate of 40%-50% in Q2, driven by the U8 product line [1][9] - The company expects a 20%-30% growth in 2025, targeting total sales of 850,000 to 900,000 tons, with a mid-term goal of 1.2 million tons [1][9] Tsingtao Beer - Tsingtao Beer is undergoing inventory reduction and leadership changes, facing challenges from alcohol bans and regional adjustments in 2025 [1][10] - The company anticipates stable dividend rates above 70%, with a Hong Kong stock dividend yield of 5-6% [1][10] Industry Challenges and Trends - The beer industry is expected to maintain some resilience in 2025, but faces significant pressures from slowing winter price growth and the impact of alcohol bans on sales [3][4] - The overall consumption power and decision-making ability of consumers are crucial for maintaining sales performance [4][5] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market shows resilience despite a weak overall environment, with companies like Zhujiang and Yanjing performing well in the food and beverage sector [6][11] - The middle-income demographic is driving consumption upgrades, particularly in central provinces [11][12] Cost and Profitability Outlook - Costs for mainstream beer companies are projected to decrease by about 2% annually from 2024 to 2025, with net profit margins expected to exceed 10% [3][14] - The long-term price potential for Chinese beer is significant, with current winter factory prices ranging from 3,500 to 4,000 RMB, compared to much higher prices in North America [15][16] Sales Channels and Consumer Trends - Major sales channels include down-stream distribution, instant retail, and live streaming sales, each accounting for approximately 50% of the market [19] - Instant retail has notably boosted sales in first- and second-tier cities, with significant growth in transaction volumes [17] Future Directions and Investment Opportunities - The future direction of the beer industry will focus on brands like Qingpi, China Resources, and Yanjing, which are expected to benefit from underlying consumer strength despite current challenges [20][22] - Companies like Yanjing, Zhujiang, and Tsingtao are recommended as key investment targets for the next two to three years due to their growth potential and market positioning [22]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月08日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250808 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.燕京啤酒（000729）：内外兼修，焕发新机——公司深度报告 ➢ 2.胶原蛋白：成分崛起，美丽新生——美容护理行业深度报告 ➢ 1.国务院政策吹风会：免保育教育费政策将适时完善 ➢ 2.央行开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作 ➢ 3.日本政府下调2026财年GDP增长预测 | 1.1. 燕京啤酒（000729）：内外兼修，焕发新机——公司深度报告 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.2. 胶原蛋白：成分崛起，美丽新生——美容 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Beijing Yanjing Beer Co., Ltd. is implementing a major product strategy centered around Yanjing U8, enhancing brand influence and market share through continuous product innovation and promotion [1] - The company is expanding its mid-to-high-end product matrix, including Yanjing V10, Lion King Craft Beer, and Lijiang 1998, to meet diverse consumer needs [1] Group 2: Market Development and Channel Expansion - Yanjing Beer is pursuing a dual strategy of meticulous market cultivation and strategic expansion, focusing on enhancing terminal efficiency and product promotion in base markets [1] - The company is accelerating development in emerging markets through initiatives like the "Hundred Counties Project" and "Hundred Cities Project," aimed at upgrading market structures and increasing visibility in high-tier markets [2] Group 3: Future Planning and Governance - The company is progressing with its "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on four key areas: enhancing management systems, deepening market development, accelerating supply chain transformation, and advancing digitalization [2] - Governance reforms include launching the ESG "Leading" project and various management integration initiatives to support high-quality development [2] Group 4: Innovation and Business Layout - Yanjing Beer is adapting to the preferences of younger consumers by promoting a "Beer + Beverage" marketing strategy, leveraging synergies between beer and beverages in various dining scenarios [2] - This strategy aims to diversify offerings and reduce reliance on single product categories, enhancing the company's market presence [2] Group 5: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yanjing Beer expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1,061.5 million and 1,137.32 million yuan, representing a growth of 40% to 50% compared to the same period last year [2] - The company is focusing on systematic reforms to create a multi-dimensional value creation system, enhancing management efficiency and market vitality [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - Yanjing Beer is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, particularly with its U8 product series, which has gained significant consumer recognition and is projected to maintain high growth rates in 2025 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on cost control and enhancing operational efficiency through a "multi-dimensional cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" model, leveraging supply chain collaboration and digital tools [2]. - Yanjing Beer plans to deepen its management system, strengthen market development, accelerate supply chain transformation, and push for digitalization as part of its strategic initiatives [3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, with projections of 1.434 billion, 1.753 billion, and 2.054 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.9%, 22.2%, and 17.2% [4][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.213 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.653 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.7% [6][4]. - The report highlights an improvement in profitability metrics, with the net profit margin projected to increase from 4.5% in 2023 to 11.8% in 2027 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer is strategically entering the non-alcoholic beverage market with its new product "Beisite Jia Bing Soda," aiming to create a "beer + soda" consumption combination in response to industry changes and to leverage supply chain synergies [1][2] Industry Background - The Chinese beer industry has been in a downward cycle for ten consecutive years since reaching its production peak in 2013, with a 1.9% year-on-year decline in 2024 for major beer enterprises, while the carbonated beverage market is growing at an annual rate of 8.58% and is expected to reach a market size of 162.2 billion yuan by 2027 [2] - There is a notable structural change in consumer demand, particularly in dining scenarios where the demand for non-alcoholic beverages is rising, with 30% of customers in hot pot restaurants explicitly requesting non-alcoholic drink options [2] Strategic Logic - Yanjing Beer’s cross-industry strategy is based on deep collaboration between production and distribution channels, allowing for easy switching between soda and beer production without significant capital investment [3] - The company is leveraging its extensive network of 500,000 restaurant terminals to promote soda products, particularly in hot pot and barbecue restaurants, enhancing SKU penetration [3] - The soda product is marketed with the slogan "Double Refreshment, Double Joy," using packaging that reflects traditional beer bottle designs while appealing to younger consumers [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue share of Yanjing's mid-to-high-end products reached 67.01%, with significant contributions from products like Yanjing U8 and V10, leading to a 1.6% year-on-year increase in revenue per ton of beer [4] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 63.74% year-on-year to 1.056 billion yuan, with positive cash flow from operating activities for three consecutive years, providing financial support for new product development and channel investments [4] Potential Challenges - Yanjing Beer faces challenges in the crowded carbonated beverage market dominated by major brands like Nongfu Spring and Coca-Cola, with local brands holding less than 30% market share [5] - The company must overcome operational challenges in managing different consumption scenarios and marketing strategies between beer and soda [5] - There is a risk of brand perception issues, as consumers primarily associate Yanjing with beer, necessitating effective brand management strategies to avoid being seen merely as a beer company venturing into beverages [5] Industry Insights - Yanjing Beer’s cross-industry move reflects a broader trend among traditional beverage companies seeking growth through category extension and innovation in consumer scenarios [6][7] - This transformation signifies a strategic shift from channel-driven approaches to consumer demand-driven strategies, highlighting the importance of aligning with contemporary consumer preferences [7]