证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-09 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20250706：6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延后至 9 月 核心观点：本周美越贸易协议与对华芯片设计软件出口限制解除提振市 场情绪，美股上涨；而经济数据的走强令美债利率随降息预期降温而大幅 上行，10 年期美债利率全周升 6.89bps 至 4.346%。本周美国"软数据" PMI 调查超预期，ISM 服务业 PMI 重回荣枯线之上。而周五公布的"硬 数据"美国 6 月非农就业再度超预期，失业率也有所回落，市场对此解 读偏乐观，7 月降息预期被彻底打消。此外本周特朗普《大美丽法案》 （OBBB）正式签署落地，债务上限进一步提高 5 万亿美元至 41 万亿美 元。由于《大美丽法案》带来的赤字增加预期已被市场关注许久，因此 OBBB 的落地或意味着"买预期、卖现实"的交易进入后半程。短期看， 30 年美债利率或 10s30s 期限利差的上行或因此告一段落。 风险提示： 特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息幅度过大引发通胀反弹甚至失控；美联储 维持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性 ...

北京燕京啤酒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | | 力城市市场。 | | --- | --- | | | 4、关于"十五五" 规划推进与治理升级 | | | 答：公司在"十四五"圆满收官基础上，有序推进"十五五" | | | 规划编制与落地，核心聚焦四件大事：深化卓越管理体系建设、 | | | 深耕市场建设、加速供应链转型、大力度推进数字化建设。治理 | | | 改革方面，启动 ESG"领先"工程、治理"三化"工程、"四位 | | | 一体"管理融合创新工程、审计价值赋能提升工程及市值管理工 | | | 程，以更优治理为高质量发展奠定基础。 | | | 5、关于创新业务布局 | | | 答：为顺应年轻消费群体需求，公司今年持续推进"啤酒+ | | | 饮料"组合营销策略，以倍斯特汽水为创新支点，依托啤酒与汽 | | | 水在生产设备、供应链、餐饮及商超终端的高度协同优势，优先 | | | 切入火锅店、烧烤店、夜市等餐饮现饮场景，通过"倍爽倍欢乐" | | | 的情感共鸣强化品牌渗透。此举不仅满足消费者多样化选择，更 | | | 拓展了经销商经营范围，降低单一品类依赖，推动有限多元化战 | | 略落地。 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - Yanjing Beer is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, particularly with its U8 product series, which has gained significant consumer recognition and is projected to maintain high growth rates in 2025 [1][4]. - The company is focusing on cost control and enhancing operational efficiency through a "multi-dimensional cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" model, leveraging supply chain collaboration and digital tools [2]. - Yanjing Beer plans to deepen its management system, strengthen market development, accelerate supply chain transformation, and push for digitalization as part of its strategic initiatives [3]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, with projections of 1.434 billion, 1.753 billion, and 2.054 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.9%, 22.2%, and 17.2% [4][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.213 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.653 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.7% [6][4]. - The report highlights an improvement in profitability metrics, with the net profit margin projected to increase from 4.5% in 2023 to 11.8% in 2027 [6].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 03 年 月 日 投资策略 6 月策略观点与金股推荐 6 月策略观点：题材交易可逐步提升风偏 大势研判：5 月市场表现看，交易难度较 4 月明显加大，大势层面表现在 指数连续两次冲高回落，配置层面则表现在交易主线的匮乏，题材数量不 少但持续性普遍不佳。此前我们也在分析中预测了一些市场可能进行交易 的方向，包括 5 月初相对低位的科技 TMT、5 月中旬的对美出口链修复， 但均始于"大胆假设"，结束于"小心求证"。站在当前时点，面对市场整 体存在阻力位压力、配置迟迟未见主线的情况，建议继续控制仓位、保持 耐心，同时做好准备，结合历史经验建立对未来行情的预期。参考历史表 现对今年 6 月行情进行展望，基准情形下，假设仍然没有重磅的事件催化， 梳理 2025 一季报看也仅有部分细分行业具备较好的景气度，整体可类比 2024 年 6 月情形，对应均衡配置仍然是重要策略：结合 2025 一季报与 行业中观数据挖掘产业景气；基于宏观叙事保有一定的防御仓位；题材交 易即使没有特别强的催化也可适当提升风偏，历史经验看近来每年 6 月， 题材交易都是重要方向 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanjing Beer is strategically entering the non-alcoholic beverage market with its new product "Beisite Jia Bing Soda," aiming to create a "beer + soda" consumption combination in response to industry changes and to leverage supply chain synergies [1][2] Industry Background - The Chinese beer industry has been in a downward cycle for ten consecutive years since reaching its production peak in 2013, with a 1.9% year-on-year decline in 2024 for major beer enterprises, while the carbonated beverage market is growing at an annual rate of 8.58% and is expected to reach a market size of 162.2 billion yuan by 2027 [2] - There is a notable structural change in consumer demand, particularly in dining scenarios where the demand for non-alcoholic beverages is rising, with 30% of customers in hot pot restaurants explicitly requesting non-alcoholic drink options [2] Strategic Logic - Yanjing Beer’s cross-industry strategy is based on deep collaboration between production and distribution channels, allowing for easy switching between soda and beer production without significant capital investment [3] - The company is leveraging its extensive network of 500,000 restaurant terminals to promote soda products, particularly in hot pot and barbecue restaurants, enhancing SKU penetration [3] - The soda product is marketed with the slogan "Double Refreshment, Double Joy," using packaging that reflects traditional beer bottle designs while appealing to younger consumers [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue share of Yanjing's mid-to-high-end products reached 67.01%, with significant contributions from products like Yanjing U8 and V10, leading to a 1.6% year-on-year increase in revenue per ton of beer [4] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 63.74% year-on-year to 1.056 billion yuan, with positive cash flow from operating activities for three consecutive years, providing financial support for new product development and channel investments [4] Potential Challenges - Yanjing Beer faces challenges in the crowded carbonated beverage market dominated by major brands like Nongfu Spring and Coca-Cola, with local brands holding less than 30% market share [5] - The company must overcome operational challenges in managing different consumption scenarios and marketing strategies between beer and soda [5] - There is a risk of brand perception issues, as consumers primarily associate Yanjing with beer, necessitating effective brand management strategies to avoid being seen merely as a beer company venturing into beverages [5] Industry Insights - Yanjing Beer’s cross-industry move reflects a broader trend among traditional beverage companies seeking growth through category extension and innovation in consumer scenarios [6][7] - This transformation signifies a strategic shift from channel-driven approaches to consumer demand-driven strategies, highlighting the importance of aligning with contemporary consumer preferences [7]