国投证券国际发布研报称，下调澳优（01717）至"增持"评级。2025年出生人口为792亿，同比下降 17%，出生率为5.63‰，考虑国内奶粉行业竞争仍然激烈，并且明年还有竞争加剧的可能，该行预期下 半年公司的业务仍将承压，该行下调25/26/27年净利润至2.5/2.6/2.9亿元，对应每EPS收益为 0.16/0.16/0.18港元，下调目标价至2.3港元，较当前股价有9%的涨幅。 国投国际证券主要观点如下： 2025年出生人口大幅下滑 2025年出生人口为792亿，同比下降17%，出生率为5.63‰。2024年为龙年，因此出生人口出现了小幅 攀升，达到954万，因此在25年上半年奶粉行业出现了一定程度的竞争缓和。到25年下半年，随着出生 人口的影响逐渐显现，行业将继续面临较为激烈的竞争，并且有望持续到明年。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国投证券国际发布研报称，下调澳优（01717）至"增持"评级。2025年出生人口为792亿，同比下降 17%，出生率为5.63‰，考虑国内奶粉行业竞争仍然激烈，并且明年还有竞争加剧的可能，该行预期下 半年公司的业务仍将承压，该行下调2 ...

产品结构拉低毛利率 智通财经APP获悉，国投证券国际发布研报称，下调澳优(01717)至"增持"评级。2025年出生人口为792 亿，同比下降17%，出生率为5.63‰，考虑国内奶粉行业竞争仍然激烈，并且明年还有竞争加剧的可 能，该行预期下半年公司的业务仍将承压，该行下调25/26/27年净利润至2.5/2.6/2.9亿元，对应每EPS收 益为0.16/0.16/0.18港元，下调目标价至2.3港元，较当前股价有9%的涨幅。 国投国际证券主要观点如下： 2025年出生人口大幅下滑 2025年出生人口为792亿，同比下降17%，出生率为5.63‰。2024年为龙年，因此出生人口出现了小幅 攀升，达到954万，因此在25年上半年奶粉行业出现了一定程度的竞争缓和。到25年下半年，随着出生 人口的影响逐渐显现，行业将继续面临较为激烈的竞争，并且有望持续到明年。 澳优上半年业绩实现增长 上半年实现总营业收入38.9亿元，同比增长5.6%;实现净利润1.81亿元，同比增长21.4%。其中海外羊奶 粉支撑增长，25年上半年羊奶粉收入18.6亿元，同比增长3.1%。其中海外羊奶粉收入4.8亿，同比增长 65.7%，占羊奶粉收 ...

SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 29 日 澳优 (1717.HK) 国内奶粉业务仍然承压 事件：2025 年出生人口为 792 亿，同比下降 17%，出生率为 5.63‰。考虑国 内奶粉行业竞争仍然激烈，并且明年还有竞争加剧的可能，我们预期下半年公 司的业务仍将承压，我们下调 25/26/27 年净利润至 2.5/2.6/2.9 亿元（, 2025/9/4 预测为 3.1/3.5/3.8 亿元），对应每 EPS 收益为 0.16/0.16/0.18 港元（2025/9/4 预测为 0.19/0.21/0.23 港元）。下调至"增持"评级，下调目标价至 2.3 港元 （2025/9/4 预测为 3.0 港元，基于 DCF 及可比公司估值法），较当前股价有 9%的涨幅。 报告摘要 2025 年出生人口大幅下滑。2025 年出生人口为 792 亿，同比下降 17%，出 生率为 5.63‰。2024 年为龙年，因此出生人口出现了小幅攀升，达到 954 万， 因此在 25 年上半年奶粉行业出现了一定程度的竞争缓和。到 25 年下半年，随 着出生人口的影响逐渐显现，行业将继续面临较为激烈的竞争，并且有望持续 到明年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The competition in China's infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [2][3][4]. Company Performance - Yili has achieved the highest market share in the overall infant formula market, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% year-on-year to 16.578 billion yuan, with infant formula sales experiencing double-digit growth [3]. - Feihe, on the other hand, reported a revenue decline of 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the same period, despite maintaining its position as the leading single brand in the market [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The difference in rankings arises from the fact that Yili's figures include sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, while Feihe's data reflects its standalone brand performance [4][6]. - Aoyou Dairy's performance has not significantly bolstered Yili's sales, as its core goat milk brand, Jiabei Aite, saw a sales decline of 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan [5][6]. - The market share gap between Yili and Feihe is narrow, with Euromonitor data indicating Feihe's market share at 17.5% and Yili at 16.3% for 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - The infant formula market in China may face contraction due to a significant decline in marriage registrations, which is likely to lead to a decrease in newborn numbers [8]. - However, the market is not deemed unprofitable, as government childcare subsidies may lead to a potential increase in birth rates, and parents are increasingly willing to spend on high-quality products [9]. - The domestic infant formula market is characterized as a key battleground for consumer upgrades, indicating substantial profit potential [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutritional products in H1 2025 was 961 million, 1.381 billion, and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% [1] - The newly added cheese business generated a revenue of 479 million yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The decline in revenue from milk powder and domestic goat milk powder was primarily due to the launch of an internal code system upgrade in Q2, which led to a temporary reduction in shipment volumes [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The market share of the goat milk powder brand increased to 30.4% by the end of H1 2025, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Overseas revenue from goat milk powder saw a significant increase of 65.7% to 483 million yuan, accounting for 25.9% of the overall goat milk powder business revenue [1] - Key regions such as the Middle East, North America, and the CIS experienced revenue growth of 54.2%, 138.7%, and 33.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the lower gross margin of the newly merged goat cheese business at 6.8% [2] - The sales expense ratio was 26.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional expenses from optimizing channel strategies [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased to 4.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as declining birth rates and macroeconomic uncertainties, domestic goat milk powder revenue is expected to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed [3] - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with the company achieving leading sales on Amazon in the U.S. for goat milk infant formula [3] - The nutritional products segment is being developed as a second growth avenue, focusing on large clients and enhancing online and offline sales channels [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 299 million, 357 million, and 410 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [3] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in goat milk powder with successful overseas market expansion and growth potential [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 181 million CNY, up 24.1% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas goat milk powder segment showed significant growth, with a 65.7% increase in revenue to 483 million CNY, accounting for 25.9% of total goat milk powder revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and improving net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.6% in H1 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in overseas goat milk powder sales and is developing its nutrition products as a second growth avenue [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.887 billion CNY and a net profit of 181 million CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.6% and 24.1% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to the lower margin from the newly acquired cheese business [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from cow milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutrition products in H1 2025 was 961 million CNY, 1.381 billion CNY, and 156 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% respectively [2]. - The newly added cheese business generated 479 million CNY in revenue [2]. Market Outlook - The company expects domestic goat milk powder revenue to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed, and policies stimulate demand [4]. - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with significant sales increases in core regions such as the Middle East and North America [2][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 299 million CNY, 357 million CNY, and 410 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [4].