伊利提到，在上半年，这家公司整体婴幼儿奶粉（含牛奶粉和羊奶粉）零售额市场份额跃居全国第一。 中国婴配粉江湖似乎要重新排位了。 飞鹤呢，也再次强调，飞鹤婴配粉全渠道市场份额及销量继续稳居市场第一。飞鹤还特别提到，其在全 国第一的位置已经持续了六年。 今天，我们就来聊下，谁才是中国市场的婴配粉老大？ 大家好，我是小贺，欢迎收看本期消费参考。 其实，伊利和飞鹤的第一，都是客观存在的。只是口径不同。 在上半年，伊利的奶粉及奶制品业务营收是同比增长14.26%至165.78亿元。其中，伊利婴幼儿奶粉零售 额实现双位数增长。羊奶粉市场份额达到34.4%，同比提升3.0个百分点。 飞鹤第一的数据呢，则是单一品牌排名第一。在上半年，飞鹤营收同比下滑9.36%到了91.51 亿元。 背后区别在哪？伊利的数据还包括了澳优乳业。在2022年，伊利控股了澳优乳业。也就是说，伊利实际 是在用两家上市公司的销售额与飞鹤相比。当然，澳优也确实属于伊利。 但要看到，澳优乳业对伊利确实有助力，但实际帮助或许没有想象中大。 在上半年，澳优乳业的核心大单品羊奶粉品牌佳贝艾特在国内销售额是同比下滑8.9%到了13.8亿元。另 外，澳优在国内牛奶粉市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 24.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutritional products in H1 2025 was 961 million, 1.381 billion, and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% [1] - The newly added cheese business generated a revenue of 479 million yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The decline in revenue from milk powder and domestic goat milk powder was primarily due to the launch of an internal code system upgrade in Q2, which led to a temporary reduction in shipment volumes [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The market share of the goat milk powder brand increased to 30.4% by the end of H1 2025, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Overseas revenue from goat milk powder saw a significant increase of 65.7% to 483 million yuan, accounting for 25.9% of the overall goat milk powder business revenue [1] - Key regions such as the Middle East, North America, and the CIS experienced revenue growth of 54.2%, 138.7%, and 33.8% respectively [1] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the lower gross margin of the newly merged goat cheese business at 6.8% [2] - The sales expense ratio was 26.1%, down 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced promotional expenses from optimizing channel strategies [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased to 4.6%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite challenges such as declining birth rates and macroeconomic uncertainties, domestic goat milk powder revenue is expected to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed [3] - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with the company achieving leading sales on Amazon in the U.S. for goat milk infant formula [3] - The nutritional products segment is being developed as a second growth avenue, focusing on large clients and enhancing online and offline sales channels [3] Group 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 299 million, 357 million, and 410 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [3] - The company is recognized as a leading brand in goat milk powder with successful overseas market expansion and growth potential [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.887 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 181 million CNY, up 24.1% year-on-year [1]. - The overseas goat milk powder segment showed significant growth, with a 65.7% increase in revenue to 483 million CNY, accounting for 25.9% of total goat milk powder revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and improving net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 4.6% in H1 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates continued strong growth in overseas goat milk powder sales and is developing its nutrition products as a second growth avenue [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 3.887 billion CNY and a net profit of 181 million CNY, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 5.6% and 24.1% [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 41.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to the lower margin from the newly acquired cheese business [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from cow milk powder, domestic goat milk powder, and nutrition products in H1 2025 was 961 million CNY, 1.381 billion CNY, and 156 million CNY, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -8.9%, and +7.0% respectively [2]. - The newly added cheese business generated 479 million CNY in revenue [2]. Market Outlook - The company expects domestic goat milk powder revenue to improve in H2 2025 as inventory adjustments are completed, and policies stimulate demand [4]. - The overseas goat milk powder business remains a key growth driver, with significant sales increases in core regions such as the Middle East and North America [2][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 299 million CNY, 357 million CNY, and 410 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 11x, and 10x [4].